Rob Weiss, FCS Update

Crazy day in the Top 25. I had the opportunity to watch four games today. Here’s a rundown on my predictions, how it went down, and what I thought of the outcome.

1. Richmond is idle.

2. Villanova vs. No. 4 William and Mary

My prediction: William and Mary 24  Villanova 21

Reality: Villanova 28  William and Mary 17

 William and Mary just didn’t really seem like they were ready to play in the first half. The Tribe’s QB, R.J. Archer had enough problems on his own. He ooked like he lacked the necessary confidence to make the plays he needed to. When it wasn’t the offense stalling, it was the defense making errors. One Villanova drive was extended by an unsportsmanlike conduct flag on a defensive player who felt the need to taunt and injured played who had just been rocked on a hard hit.

The Tribe went into halftime down 21-6, but back ready to play in the 2nd half. It was just too little, too late for the Tribe.

Villanova on the other hand looked like the best team in the country. Easily #1 in my mind.  The Villanova offense, led by QB Chris Whitney, was very balanced with148 yards on the ground and 169 through the air. The only issue I saw was the defense. The Wildcats defense gave 472 yards, but managed to keep the Tribe to 17 points. The Tribe’s first drive was ended by an INT in a goalline situation. Had that play gone differently, we may have seen a different game.

Was very thankful for the invention of DVR. Was great to come back and watch this game on Versus.

3. Northern Iowa  vs. Indiana State

My prediction: Northern Iowa 52  Indiana State 7

Reality: Northern Iowa 62  Indiana State 7

I called this one pretty closely. Northern Iowa was ahead 42-0 at the half. All of starters on offense andmost of the starters on defense sat out the entire second half. Indiana State had a 12 yard scoring drive after a UNI fumble. Indiana State was held to 101 yards of total offense. Not too much to say about this game. One highlight was UNI FB Matt Strathman, a junior, who led the Panthers with 133 yards on 16 carries.

5. Montana is idle.

6. New Hampshire vs. Towson

My prediction: New Hampshire 28  Towson 10

Reality: New Hampshire 57  Towson 7

Man, I was a little short on New Hampshire scoring. The Wildcats beat my prediction in the 1st quarter. The Wildcats were without junior QB R.J. Toman, but still managed to put an old fashioned whopping on the Tigers. The offense was assisted by a safety, a TD on the ensuing kick return, and 2 INTs returned for a TD.

7. James Madison vs. Hofstra

My Prediction: James Madison 38  Hofstra 7

Reality: Hofstra 24  James Madison 17

Wow. This game threw me for a loop. I couldn’t believe it as I checked the game throughout the afternoon. I thought ESPN had gotten it wrong like they do at times. Although this game was effected by weather(lightning delay in the first half), good teams find ways to win games.

Hofstra lead 21-10 at the half, and neither team could muster much offense in the 2nd half. This is James Madison’s first lost since falling to Maryland in OT.

8. Southern Illinois vs. Western Illinois

My Prediction: Southern Illinois 31  Western Illinois 14

Reality:Southern Illinois 30 Western Illinois 10

 This is one of the games I got to catch a bit of. When I turned the game on at halftime SIU was up 27-10. From watching Western Illinois twice this season, it’s easy for me to say the WIU is not very good. Their starting QB Barr went down, and I watched his back-up pick apart the SIU defense. Unfortunately, a lot of those passes were dropped by WRs. I mean, he hit them right in the hands. It was sad really. WIU does not have a defense, so it was hard to gauge SIU.  Saluki running back Deji Karim went nuts tonight. 157 yards rushing on 18 carries with 282 all purpose yards. The Saluki’s first big test of the season comes against Northern Iowa on 10/17 in a game that as of late has decided the Valley autobid.

9. McNeese St is idle

10. Appalachian State vs.  The Citadel

My prediction: Appalachian State 42  The Citadel 24

Reality: Appalachian State 30  The Citadel 27   OT

I was a little off on this game. Barely got the outcome right. It was a hard fought game, back and forth all day, but when it came to the end, The Citadel just couldn’t finish what they started. After taking a 27-20 lead with 5:18 remaining, the Bulldog defense gave up the game tying score on just 2 plays, the 2nd of which was a 74 yard TD strike from Armanti Edwards to Brian Quick. Each team had the ball one more time in regulation, but couldn’t score. In overtime, The Citadel had the ball first, and after 3 plays attempted a 37 yard FG on 4th and 5. A bad snap was eventually placed and the kick sailed right. Appalachian State would connect on a 29 yard FG to win.

11. Elon vs. No. 21 Furman

My Prediction: Elon 28  Furman 24

Reality: Elon 19  Furman 12

I was right when I assumed we were in for a good SoCon battle in this game. The game was a low scoring, back and forth, affair all afternoon. Elon kicked a FG with 2 seconds left to take the lead 13-12. Furman fumbled the ensuing kickoff and Elon recovered to make it a 19-12 final.

12. Central Arkansas vs Missouri S&T

My prediction: Central Arkansas 52 Missouri S&T 10

Reality: Central Arkansas 45 Missouri S&T 10

I was close on this one. UCA pulls out the sub D-I win.

13. Weber St. vs. Montana State

My Prediction: Weber State 31  Montana State 14

Reality: Montana State 26  Weber State 21

It was a last play heart breaker today in Ogden, UT. Weber State had the ball on the Montana State 1 yard line with 20 seconds left. 4th and goal. The Bobcat defense stopped a Wildcat formation option play, and that was the game.

I can’t decide if I’m overestimating Weber State, or underestimating Montana State. I thought Weber State was overrated coming into this game, but I also thought Montana State wasn’t that good.

 
14. South Dakota State vs. No. 17 Cal Poly

My Prediction: South Dakota State 35  Cal Poly 17

Reality:  Cal Poly 21  South Dakota State 14

I forked over the $7 to watch this game online tonight. This was a match up between two teams that I couldn’t figure out. But I’m not sure I learned much of anything. The Jackrabbits of SDSU lost their starting QB early in the game. After he was out they brought in a back-up freshman QB and also ran the wildcat formation. Neither team looked that great.

Cal Poly took a 21-14 lead with about 2 minutes left in the game when the Jackrabbits fumbles into their own endzone. On the following drive the Cal Poly defense sealed the win with an interception.

So are both teams for real? Neither of them? I’m not positive. My evaluation says they both fall somewhere between 17-25 in the poll.

15. Massachusetts is idle.

16. South Carolina State vs. South Carolina

My prediction: South Carolina 52  South Carolina State 14

Reality: South Carolina 38  South Carolina State 14

Not a bad showing by S.C. State, but this was their only shot at a quality out of conference win. I was pretty close on this one.

18. Eastern Washington vs. Idaho State

My prediction: Eastern Washington 27  Idaho State 7

Reality: Eastern Washington 38  Idaho State 3

 A little off on the score, but it was the same idea.

Idaho State just looks terrible this year. They are winless on the season and have lost 20 out of their last 21 games.

Taiwan Jones of EWU set a Holt Arena and EWU record with a 96 yard touchdown run.

Idaho State fumbled six times, losing three of them.

You get the idea….

19. Eastern Kentucky vs. No. 24 Eastern Illinois

My prediction: Eastern Kentucky 35  Eastern Illinois 10

Reality: Eastern Kentucky 36  Eastern Illinois 31

EIU played this much closer than I expected. The Panthers, led by Iowa-transfer QB Jake Christensen, came up just short. EKU’s Jeremy Caldwell forced a fumble at midfield with under 10 seconds left.

With Jacksonville State ineligible for the playoffs, I viewed this as the autobid for the OVC. EKU improves to 3-0 in the Ohio Valley.

20. Texas State vs. Southern Utah

My prediction: Southern Utah 24  Texas State 14

Reality: Southern Utah 38  Texas State 16

This was the game I got the most comments on. Everyone said I was crazy for thinking Texas State would only score 14. If anything, I was crazy for shorting the Southern Utah offense. The Thunderbird offense put up 31 points. The other 7? A 99 yard fumble return for a TD. Maybe I should thank SUU’s junior CB Akeem Anifowoshe for keeping the Bobcats out of the end zone.

22. Holy Cross vs. Northeastern

My prediction: Holy Cross 31  Northeastern 7

Reality: Holy Cross 42  Northeastern 21

This game was over even sooner than I thought. Holy Cross led 21-0 at the end of the 1st quarter. Only suprise was Holy Cross allowing Northeastern to score 14 in the 4th quarter. But hey, you gotta throw people a bone sometimes.

23. Jacksonville State vs. Tennessee Martin

My prediction: Jacksonville State 21 Tennessee Martin 10

Reality: Jacksonville State 52 Tennessee Martin 7

Holy smokes, Jax State is good this year! Too bad they won’t be playing Thanksgiving weekend. JSU is one of a few schools ineligible for the playoffs this year. Unfortunately the NCAA dropped a ban on them after poor historical performance in the APRs.

JSU defensive back had 3 INTs and returned 2 for TDs in the first nine minutes. This game was over quick.

25. Delaware vs. Maine

My prediction: Delaware 24  Maine 17

Reality: Delaware 27 Maine 17

This was a great pick. If only Delaware had missed their last FG.

Delaware had a rough 2008, and 2009 hasn’t been much better. The Blue Hens lost to reigning national champion, Richmond by one, and then the next week lost another close one to William and Mary. This win gets them back on the road to where they want to go.

Penn State transfer QB Pat Devlin threw for 329 yards and 1 TD in the Delaware win.

My record this week: 13-4

On the season: 13-4