Coronavirus COVID-19

[SDHornet]

You have some special insight about what is happening? Please enlighten us all.

Here’s some more info from a buddy who’s really good at this stuff. Take it with a grain of salt like everything else but he has been spot on with everything happening so far.

Friends... I have been doing some data analytics of the number of COVID-19 Cases because the way the Media is presenting the facts of the situation is morally correct, yet is factually, shall we say off kilter, they are using broad brush descriptions like the United States is 11 Days away from being Italy, well I can tell you by looking at the Data that is factually a gross over statement and a gross understatement, and it all depends on where you live. The media is comparing absolute numbers of cases and creating epidemiological curves, this is a bad use of statistics as it does not account for population or regional density. Leaving these factors our skews the data. Part of my reason for doing this is to see if we, in Washington are Flattening the Curve, from my review of the data, I think we are, however, other places, like New York City is on Fire, and will effectively be on par with Italy sometime tomorrow, if they aren't already. I'm not going to share all the statistics, Ive pulled together, but I am going to share a key one - per capita number of cases per 1,000,000 of population, this makes it a closer apples to apples comparison by location, so here are my location numbers so you can get a sense. This is as of today:

Italy 777
New York City 613
Spain 461
Puget Sound Metro 322
Washington State 213
United States of America 59

To get a handle on whether a curve is flattening or not, one needs to look at percentage growth of cases over time. Is that trend line accelerating, decelerating or changing. My small sample size so far suggests WA State is decelerating, which is probably why Governor Inslee did not order a shelter in place today, but New York City is rapidly accelerating, like unrestrained wild fire that is going to make Italy and Spain look quaint in comparison. Over the next few days, Im going to expand my data sets and include California. If people are interested Ill figure out an efficient way to share more of this so you can see it. Please let me know.

Kalm contrary to complaints about this, I think this is some of the more useful data and analysis on this thing than most everything else. Flaggy has a point about the testing, but showing this on a per capita basis does give us a sense of where the hot spots are.

[Gil Dobie]

Or his legacy could be getting us out of this. Time will tell.

12,469 Americans died from H1N1 on Obama's watch and I don't believe that's his legacy.

This. Funny how the left forgets this little tidbit. Also funny how they forget how the msm bashed Trump over his early actions against this Chinese virus...and yet now multiple leftist Governors are giving Trump some credit. But Orange Man Bad though.

Congress also knew about this report and they just used it for inside info for stock trading. This really a time when we should be focusing on a solution and not blame.

[Pwns]

Kalm is spot on. Some places it will be over quickly or won't even start, and in other places it's going to be deciding who gets the lifeboats on the Titanic in hospitals. It's a mistake to use Italy as a model for what's going to happen to us when their population density is 5x ours, and people are also underestimating how important local leadership will be in large cities where the outbreak will be the worst.

[CAA Flagship]

Kalm contrary to complaints about this, I think this is some of the more useful data and analysis on this thing than most everything else. Flaggy has a point about the testing, but showing this on a per capita basis does give us a sense of where the hot spots are.

We've been reading the per capita data for well over a week now.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
But the number of cases is flawed in two major ways:
1. Insufficient testing
2. Asymptomatic, untested, people

It's possible we can assume that if testing was consistent from one country to the next, and from one type of test to another, #2 would generally be the same across the board. But #1 is the biggest factor right now and probably won't be close enough for comparison for another month.

[BDKJMU]

At home testing kits now available.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/at-home- ... panies-say

[SDHornet]

Kalm contrary to complaints about this, I think this is some of the more useful data and analysis on this thing than most everything else. Flaggy has a point about the testing, but showing this on a per capita basis does give us a sense of where the hot spots are.

We've been reading the per capita data for well over a week now.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
But the number of cases is flawed in two major ways:
1. Insufficient testing
2. Asymptomatic, untested, people

It's possible we can assume that if testing was consistent from one country to the next, and from one type of test to another, #2 would generally be the same across the board. But #1 is the biggest factor right now and probably won't be close enough for comparison for another month.

That site has been giving us the critical cases. And I think these are straight case counts, not per capita data.

NY has completely exploded the past couple days, but the critical cases hasn't shot up (yet).

[CAA Flagship]

That site has been giving us the critical cases. And I think these are straight case counts, not per capita data.

NY has completely exploded the past couple days, but the critical cases hasn't shot up (yet).

Do you not see the column on the far right?

[UNI88]

Just saw the barber shops are starting to be closed state by state.

You all going clean shaven, Amish bowl cut, or what?

I have an Oster clipper, so I'll probably throw a #2 on it and go to town.

My barber closed two days before my scheduled appointment.

Going with full Sasquatch. Just light trimming of the beard and letting it all buck till they open up again.

I got a cut yesterday. Saw a place was open and knew the doors would be closing soon. Told the lady cutting my hair that and she said that tomorrow (today now) was their last day.

Normally I go with a #4 or 4 1/2 on top and a #2 on the side. Yesterday I went with a #3 on top and a #1 on the side so it will last a little longer. If this drags out I'm buying clippers and going with a #2 across the board as well.

[SDHornet]

That site has been giving us the critical cases. And I think these are straight case counts, not per capita data.

NY has completely exploded the past couple days, but the critical cases hasn't shot up (yet).

Do you not see the column on the far right?

I see total case counts. What am I missing? I should add I'm looking at the breakdown by state.

[CAA Flagship]

Do you not see the column on the far right?

I see total case counts. What am I missing? I should add I'm looking at the breakdown by state.

Ahh. I see the problem. Look here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[SDHornet]

I see total case counts. What am I missing? I should add I'm looking at the breakdown by state.

Ahh. I see the problem. Look here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Yeah just noticed they have that column when viewing by countries, but not for states.

[Winterborn]

My barber closed two days before my scheduled appointment.

Going with full Sasquatch. Just light trimming of the beard and letting it all buck till they open up again.

I got a cut yesterday. Saw a place was open and knew the doors would be closing soon. Told the lady cutting my hair that and she said that tomorrow (today now) was their last day.

Normally I go with a #4 or 4 1/2 on top and a #2 on the side. Yesterday I went with a #3 on top and a #1 on the side so it will last a little longer. If this drags out I'm buying clippers and going with a #2 across the board as well.

My beard trim is pretty straight forward, but my haircut isn't. I can go about 2 months before it starts looking really shaggy and it only really matters if I am going into work, as the rest of the time I have my cap/hat on. My beard seems to stop growing at a about 6 inches, so other than a trim for my mustache, it usually is good.

Apparently the CDC said something about shaving beards to help prevent the spread of the virus and it was brought up during our team meeting this week. Other than two abstains and one nay, the rest of the team said I should either do a handlebar or fu manchu......

[kalm]

From my data analytics friend.

Days it's taken to reach # of global confirmed cases of COVID19:

0 to 100k: 110 days
100k to 200k: 12 days
200k to 300k: 3 days

Its going globally logarithmic now...

As mentioned earlier, numbers go up with testing.

[Col Hogan]

There’s been lots of “encouraging’ news that China has gotten things under control, and some of those reports imply the Chinese methods of attacking the virus needs to by implemented here...

But is the news about China having controlled the spread true...

It appears that some news leaking out of China would indicate it is not true...

https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-coronavir ... 00391.html

[JohnStOnge]

Look people. At some point anybody with a brain needs to admit that Trump mishandled this. And anybody with a brain needs to admit that he is continuing to do so. Stuff like insisting on calling it the "Chinese virus" when he knows a bunch of people are offended by that. And he knows that a bunch of people will be offended by it. There is no reason to do it. Or stuff today like attacking the reporter. He is dividing the country when it needs to be united.

For weeks his response was to try to say it was no big deal. It was nothing compared to the seasonal flu. That sort of thing. It's not nothing compared to the seasonal flu. It's already stressing hospitals in some areas of the United States to an extent that doesn't happen with the seasonal flu. King County Washington has leased two hotels to handle extra cases and is in the process of building another facility. That doesn't happen very year with the seasonal flu.

He's said nobody saw this coming. Plenty of people saw the potential of this sort of thing coming.

He's just been a total fail on this.

-West Nile Virus (West Nile, Uganda)
-Guinea Worm (Guinea, Africa)
-German Measles (Rubella)
-Spanish Flu
-Zaire Ebola virus
-Ross River Fever (New South Wales, Australia)
-Omsk Hemorrhagic Fever (Omsk, Russia)
-Marburg virus (Marburg, Germany)
-Lassa, Fever (Lassa, Nigeria)
-La Crosse Encephalitis (La Crosse, Wisconsin)
-St. Louis Encephalitis
-Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever
-Lyme Disease- Lyme Connecticut
-MERS-coronavirus (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) (camel flu)
But call COVID the Wuhan, or Chinese virus- RACIST! RACIST!

Give me a break. We've been naming diseases by countries or regions for hundreds of years, but when Trump does it, its racist because Orange Man Bad. If a virus originated in America, and the US govt covered it up for a month, eventually causing a worldwide pandemic, does anyone doubt the whole world would be calling it the “American Virus”?

While this virus doesn’t have anything to do with most of the Chinese people, it originated in Wuhan, China. And the Chinese Communist govt covered up, obfuscated, and silenced people for a month. What we are dealing with now is a direct result of actions (or inaction) taken by the Chinese communist govt. The world should be constantly reminded of that.

The point is that Trump was intentionally picking a scab during a time of crisis. He was very aware that people would be offended if he said "Chinese virus" and he went out of his way to do it. There was absolutely no reason to start off a press conference like that. There is down side to doing it and absolutely no up side. No reason not to just say something like "the novel coronavirus." No informational reason to do what he did. The man is, emotionally, a child.

[JohnStOnge]

New York City is rapidly accelerating,

I saw Cuomo say today that New York has dramatically increased testing and is testing more than any other State. He said New York State has been testing more per capita than South Korea has; and that's saying something.

Another thing is that there is a lag because of the incubation period. So even if you didn't have the confounding effect of increased testing there would be a lag between when you start trying to flatten the curve and when you start seeing whether your efforts are having an effect.

When I've watched Cuomo speak I've kind of not liked the way he's thinking because he appears to be looking at it as though it is some kind of pressure gauge with immediate response. Plus at the same time that he's saying the State has dramatically increased testing he's been saying that he's been responding to increasing case numbers.

Well...if you dramatically increase testing you're going to see increase in confirmed case numbers. Right?

[93henfan]

I'm not a statistician and I didn't stay at the Holiday Inn Express last night, but does the "daily new cases" number look somewhat encouraging the past three days?

Mar 14 - 696
Mar 15 - 737 (+5.9%)
Mar 16 - 983 (+33.4%)
Mar 17 - 1,748 (+77.8%)
Mar 18 - 2,848 (+62.9%)
Mar 19 - 4,530 (+59.1%)
Mar 20 - 5,594 (+23.5%)

[AZGrizFan]

-West Nile Virus (West Nile, Uganda)
-Guinea Worm (Guinea, Africa)
-German Measles (Rubella)
-Spanish Flu
-Zaire Ebola virus
-Ross River Fever (New South Wales, Australia)
-Omsk Hemorrhagic Fever (Omsk, Russia)
-Marburg virus (Marburg, Germany)
-Lassa, Fever (Lassa, Nigeria)
-La Crosse Encephalitis (La Crosse, Wisconsin)
-St. Louis Encephalitis
-Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever
-Lyme Disease- Lyme Connecticut
-MERS-coronavirus (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) (camel flu)
But call COVID the Wuhan, or Chinese virus- RACIST! RACIST!

Give me a break. We've been naming diseases by countries or regions for hundreds of years, but when Trump does it, its racist because Orange Man Bad. If a virus originated in America, and the US govt covered it up for a month, eventually causing a worldwide pandemic, does anyone doubt the whole world would be calling it the “American Virus”?

While this virus doesn’t have anything to do with most of the Chinese people, it originated in Wuhan, China. And the Chinese Communist govt covered up, obfuscated, and silenced people for a month. What we are dealing with now is a direct result of actions (or inaction) taken by the Chinese communist govt. The world should be constantly reminded of that.

The point is that Trump was intentionally picking a scab during a time of crisis. He was very aware that people would be offended if he said "Chinese virus" and he went out of his way to do it. There was absolutely no reason to start off a press conference like that. There is down side to doing it and absolutely no up side. No reason not to just say something like "the novel coronavirus." No informational reason to do what he did. The man is, emotionally, a child.

Read the post above yours, JSO, and then tell us again why he shouldn’t have “picked that scab”.

Fuck the Chinese and their carefully concocted publicity sweep. Nice to see you’d rather be a pawn for them than support our president.

[UNI88]

I got a cut yesterday. Saw a place was open and knew the doors would be closing soon. Told the lady cutting my hair that and she said that tomorrow (today now) was their last day.

Normally I go with a #4 or 4 1/2 on top and a #2 on the side. Yesterday I went with a #3 on top and a #1 on the side so it will last a little longer. If this drags out I'm buying clippers and going with a #2 across the board as well.

My beard trim is pretty straight forward, but my haircut isn't. I can go about 2 months before it starts looking really shaggy and it only really matters if I am going into work, as the rest of the time I have my cap/hat on. My beard seems to stop growing at a about 6 inches, so other than a trim for my mustache, it usually is good.

Apparently the CDC said something about shaving beards to help prevent the spread of the virus and it was brought up during our team meeting this week. Other than two abstains and one nay, the rest of the team said I should either do a handlebar or fu manchu......

I vote for mutton chops!

My hair is thick and curly. I'll be rocking a joofro after 6+ weeks and it will get worse from there. Better off with the #2 that I can take care of myself.

[AZGrizFan]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2176051/

Coronaviruses are well known to undergo genetic recombination (375), which may lead to new genotypes and outbreaks. The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb. The possibility of the reemergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories and therefore the need for preparedness should not be ignored.

Written in 2007. Fascinating read. Fuck the Chinese.

[AZGrizFan]

Another fantastic read.

Both the CDC and WHO are optimizing for healthcare utilization, while ignoring the economic shock to our system. Both organizations assume you are going to get infected, eventually, and it won’t be that bad.

Fuck the WHO too....Destroying a country with their misinformation.

[BDKJMU]

-West Nile Virus (West Nile, Uganda)
-Guinea Worm (Guinea, Africa)
-German Measles (Rubella)
-Spanish Flu
-Zaire Ebola virus
-Ross River Fever (New South Wales, Australia)
-Omsk Hemorrhagic Fever (Omsk, Russia)
-Marburg virus (Marburg, Germany)
-Lassa, Fever (Lassa, Nigeria)
-La Crosse Encephalitis (La Crosse, Wisconsin)
-St. Louis Encephalitis
-Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever
-Lyme Disease- Lyme Connecticut
-MERS-coronavirus (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) (camel flu)
But call COVID the Wuhan, or Chinese virus- RACIST! RACIST!

Give me a break. We've been naming diseases by countries or regions for hundreds of years, but when Trump does it, its racist because Orange Man Bad. If a virus originated in America, and the US govt covered it up for a month, eventually causing a worldwide pandemic, does anyone doubt the whole world would be calling it the “American Virus”?

While this virus doesn’t have anything to do with most of the Chinese people, it originated in Wuhan, China. And the Chinese Communist govt covered up, obfuscated, and silenced people for a month. What we are dealing with now is a direct result of actions (or inaction) taken by the Chinese communist govt. The world should be constantly reminded of that.

The point is that Trump was intentionally picking a scab during a time of crisis. He was very aware that people would be offended if he said "Chinese virus" and he went out of his way to do it. There was absolutely no reason to start off a press conference like that. There is down side to doing it and absolutely no up side. No reason not to just say something like "the novel coronavirus." No informational reason to do what he did. The man is, emotionally, a child.

South China Morning Post-1st case was recorded on 11/17 in Hubei province, with 5 new cases reported on average per day in the following weeks.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... raced-back

Timeline: The early days of China's coronavirus outbreak and cover-up.
https://www.axios.com/timeline-the-earl ... 5faab.html

U.K.'s University of South Hampton- if Chinese authorities had acted 3 weeks earlier than they did, the geographic proliferation of the pathogen would have been significantly smaller, and the # of cases would be reduced by 95 percent.
https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020 ... china.page

Late Feb Chinese govt starts spinning a tale blaming the US for the virus.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/02/ch ... oronavirus

Given what this country (and a large chunk of the world) are being put through, the Chinese govt's actions/in actions should piss everyone off. Fuck them. It's the Chinese Virus.

[SDHornet]

The point is that Trump was intentionally picking a scab during a time of crisis. He was very aware that people would be offended if he said "Chinese virus" and he went out of his way to do it. There was absolutely no reason to start off a press conference like that. There is down side to doing it and absolutely no up side. No reason not to just say something like "the novel coronavirus." No informational reason to do what he did. The man is, emotionally, a child.

South China Morning Post-1st case was recorded on 11/17 in Hubei province, with 5 new cases reported on average per day in the following weeks.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... raced-back

Timeline: The early days of China's coronavirus outbreak and cover-up.
https://www.axios.com/timeline-the-earl ... 5faab.html

U.K.'s University of South Hampton- if Chinese authorities had acted 3 weeks earlier than they did, the geographic proliferation of the pathogen would have been significantly smaller, and the # of cases would be reduced by 95 percent.
https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020 ... china.page

Late Feb Chinese govt starts spinning a tale blaming the US for the virus.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/02/ch ... oronavirus

Given what this country (and a large chunk of the world) are being put through, the Chinese govt's actions/in actions should piss everyone off. Fuck them. It's the Chinese Virus.

Yup. Anyone who thinks otherwise is just running interference for those Commie bastards.

[CID1990]

-West Nile Virus (West Nile, Uganda)
-Guinea Worm (Guinea, Africa)
-German Measles (Rubella)
-Spanish Flu
-Zaire Ebola virus
-Ross River Fever (New South Wales, Australia)
-Omsk Hemorrhagic Fever (Omsk, Russia)
-Marburg virus (Marburg, Germany)
-Lassa, Fever (Lassa, Nigeria)
-La Crosse Encephalitis (La Crosse, Wisconsin)
-St. Louis Encephalitis
-Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever
-Lyme Disease- Lyme Connecticut
-MERS-coronavirus (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) (camel flu)
But call COVID the Wuhan, or Chinese virus- RACIST! RACIST!

Give me a break. We've been naming diseases by countries or regions for hundreds of years, but when Trump does it, its racist because Orange Man Bad. If a virus originated in America, and the US govt covered it up for a month, eventually causing a worldwide pandemic, does anyone doubt the whole world would be calling it the “American Virus”?

While this virus doesn’t have anything to do with most of the Chinese people, it originated in Wuhan, China. And the Chinese Communist govt covered up, obfuscated, and silenced people for a month. What we are dealing with now is a direct result of actions (or inaction) taken by the Chinese communist govt. The world should be constantly reminded of that.

The point is that Trump was intentionally picking a scab during a time of crisis. He was very aware that people would be offended if he said "Chinese virus" and he went out of his way to do it. There was absolutely no reason to start off a press conference like that. There is down side to doing it and absolutely no up side. No reason not to just say something like "the novel coronavirus." No informational reason to do what he did. The man is, emotionally, a child.

Good thing China has bots like you to further their propaganda, you obsessive bobblehead

China is putting it out there that the US military started this virus

So I’d be fine with Trump calling it the Screamin Yellow Chinaman Pneumonia

Fuck China and fuck their propagandist collaborators who are “offended”


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[Ivytalk]

Yellow Peril, v. 2.0