Middle Class is Now a Minority

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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by SDHornet »

houndawg wrote:
They're doing the same thing as you John, except they know they're doing it. It being what we used to refer to "forcing the distribution". Let me set you on the right path instead of just grabbing numbers and trying to make them fit. What you need to do to compare today's middle class with back in the day is to compare lifestyles, as in what its really like out there. You may be too young to remember but there are people here who can verify that back in the day a middle class family could afford a modest house, two cars, and could save enough for two kids college tuition in 20 years. And they could do it on one income. :coffee:
I blame the scheister (sp?) ass bankers who manipulated the system to rake everyone over the coals. Scream conk donk all you want, but that is root of this issue. In a perfect world it would be open season on all bankers and lawyers...and the world would be much better for it. :coffee:
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by houndawg »

yeah...things were looking so good before Jan., '09... :(

...and those ghetto families you're supporting? Fortune 100, bro....sad but true... :cry:
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by kalm »

houndawg wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:I looked at the Pew article on its study. It's at http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2015/12/ ... ef-21084-3" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; .

I don't see any basis for why they defined "middle class" in the way that they did. There's a footnote reference but when you click on it it takes you to a note that reads, "incomes are first adjusted for household size." No indication that it's any kind of convention.

The way Pew did it, people who make more in inflation adjusted terms now than some people in the "middle class" did in 1971 are now considered "lower class." I just don't think it's a good way of defining "middle class."

Take a look at this graphic from the Pew Report (page 14...you can see a link to it to the right on the page I linked above):

Image

What it's showing is that a household had to make at least $31,480 in 2014 dollars in 1971 to be middle class. But suppose a household made $40,000 in 2014? The inflation adjusted income of that $40,000 household is 27 percent higher than the threshold for what it took to be "middle class" in 1971. But now it's considered "lower class" by virtue of the way the Pew people defined things. So are they "worse off" even though their income is 27 percent higher than what it took to be "middle class" in 1971 because they're now defined as "lower class" by virtue of the way Pew defined things?

I like the Pew Research Center in general but that's just a screwy way of defining "middle class." And the sad thing is that now a lot of people are going to use this just the way the author of the article linked at the start of this thread did. They'll use it to foster the false idea that the American Middle Class is "worse off" than it was during the 1970s when it's clearly not.
They're doing the same thing as you John, except they know they're doing it. It being what we used to refer to "forcing the distribution". Let me set you on the right path instead of just grabbing numbers and trying to make them fit. What you need to do to compare today's middle class with back in the day is to compare lifestyles, as in what its really like out there. You may be too young to remember but there are people here who can verify that back in the day a middle class family could afford a modest house, two cars, and could save enough for two kids college tuition in 20 years. And they could do it on one income. :coffee:
:nod:

Hyperinflation in key expenses like health insurance, healthcare costs, education, housing, play a huge roll as does technology that you can't "live without."

There's also no mention of household debt and savings.
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by kalm »

SDHornet wrote:
houndawg wrote:
They're doing the same thing as you John, except they know they're doing it. It being what we used to refer to "forcing the distribution". Let me set you on the right path instead of just grabbing numbers and trying to make them fit. What you need to do to compare today's middle class with back in the day is to compare lifestyles, as in what its really like out there. You may be too young to remember but there are people here who can verify that back in the day a middle class family could afford a modest house, two cars, and could save enough for two kids college tuition in 20 years. And they could do it on one income. :coffee:
I blame the scheister (sp?) ass bankers who manipulated the system to rake everyone over the coals. Scream conk donk all you want, but that is root of this issue. In a perfect world it would be open season on all bankers and lawyers...and the world would be much better for it. :coffee:
Yep. Deregulation started with Carter, was a focal point of Reaganomics, and continued under Clinton and the Republican Revolution. Call it crony capitalism, governmental capture, oligarchy, whatever and both parties are to blame.
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by houndawg »

SDHornet wrote:
houndawg wrote:
They're doing the same thing as you John, except they know they're doing it. It being what we used to refer to "forcing the distribution". Let me set you on the right path instead of just grabbing numbers and trying to make them fit. What you need to do to compare today's middle class with back in the day is to compare lifestyles, as in what its really like out there. You may be too young to remember but there are people here who can verify that back in the day a middle class family could afford a modest house, two cars, and could save enough for two kids college tuition in 20 years. And they could do it on one income. :coffee:
I blame the scheister (sp?) ass bankers who manipulated the system to rake everyone over the coals. Scream conk donk all you want, but that is root of this issue. In a perfect world it would be open season on all bankers and lawyers...and the world would be much better for it. :coffee:
Don't disagree, but my point was to explain to JSO why his statistics are apples to oranges. To live a back-in-the-day middle class life described above - house, two, cars, two college tuitions, spouse at home, you'd need at least $250K in your part of the country I'd guess.
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by AZGrizFan »

kalm wrote:
houndawg wrote:
They're doing the same thing as you John, except they know they're doing it. It being what we used to refer to "forcing the distribution". Let me set you on the right path instead of just grabbing numbers and trying to make them fit. What you need to do to compare today's middle class with back in the day is to compare lifestyles, as in what its really like out there. You may be too young to remember but there are people here who can verify that back in the day a middle class family could afford a modest house, two cars, and could save enough for two kids college tuition in 20 years. And they could do it on one income. :coffee:
:nod:

Hyperinflation in key expenses like health insurance, healthcare costs, education, housing, play a huge roll as does technology that you can't "live without."

There's also no mention of household debt and savings.
And now they get all that on NO income. It's all given to them by the government.
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by houndawg »

AZGrizFan wrote:
kalm wrote:
:nod:

Hyperinflation in key expenses like health insurance, healthcare costs, education, housing, play a huge roll as does technology that you can't "live without."

There's also no mention of household debt and savings.
And now they get all that on NO income. It's all given to them by the government.
It was easier back when your corporate pals weren't such leeches. :coffee:
You matter. Unless you multiply yourself by c squared. Then you energy.


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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by AZGrizFan »

houndawg wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
And now they get all that on NO income. It's all given to them by the government.
It was easier back when your corporate pals weren't such leeches. :coffee:
Especially when 47% of Americans are now leeching themselves.
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by JohnStOnge »

They're doing the same thing as you John, except they know they're doing it. It being what we used to refer to "forcing the distribution". Let me set you on the right path instead of just grabbing numbers and trying to make them fit. What you need to do to compare today's middle class with back in the day is to compare lifestyles, as in what its really like out there. You may be too young to remember but there are people here who can verify that back in the day a middle class family could afford a modest house, two cars, and could save enough for two kids college tuition in 20 years. And they could do it on one income.
When I talk about the middle class I'm not "forcing the distribution" at all. I'm using the convention of looking at the middle 68% of the population. In just about any distribution it's common for people to talk about "average, above average, and below average" with the convention being that the "average range" is +/- one standard deviation from the mean, "above average" is any value more than one standard deviation above the mean, and below average is any value more than one standard deviation below the mean. And in a normal distribution that translates to 16 percent being below average, 68 percent being average, and 16 percent being above average. Middle class if referring to a fixed proportion of the population in the middle. So when you compare the middle class of 2014 to the middle class of 1971 you're comparing the middle 68 percent of the population in 2014 to the middle 68 percent of the population in 1971. Nothing deceptive about that. Very straightforward.

Since I was born during the 1950s and my Dad worked in an oil refinery I'm plenty old enough to remember what it was like living in a middle class family back then among other middle class families. And, as I've written before, anybody who thinks the middle class was materially better off back then is nuts. Middle class people have way more stuff than they did back then. Bigger houses, better cars, lots more toys. Lots more in terms of material things, recreational opportunities, entertainment. I grew up in a house with a black and white TV such that every time you changed between one of the four channels available you had to walk outside and point the antenna toward where the station was. We never bought a new car because we couldn't afford to. And mind you people who worked as operators at petrochemical refineries as my Dad did made good money relative to other blue collar workers at that time. We didn't have air conditioning when I was very little. Attic fan. There were no cell phones. No computers. We lived in what was originally a two bedroom house that I'd guess was about 1200 square feet with one room intended as something else converted to a bed room so that my parents could have one bedroom, my three sisters could share another, and me and my two brothers could share a third. We had one bathroom for 8 people. No shower. Just a bath tub.

It was not unusual for us to have stuff like canned tuna mixed with macaroni and cheese or canned tuna mixed with cream of mushroom soup poured over toast for supper because my parents had to make things stretch. We never went hungry but we sure as heck didn't eat fancy either. Except for the oldest sister and oldest brother we wore hand me downs. And even with that we frequently went to school with pants with those iron on patches to close knee holes and make them last as long as possible.

And no it wasn't because my parents were wasting money or playing. They were "nose to the grindstone" people who didn't spend much on themselves at all. They didn't go out. Once in a while they might go to a high school reunion or a retirement party or something like that but that's it.

If you took a kid from the "typical" middle class family of today and sent them back in time to live under the conditions of a "typical" middle class family in the 1960s or 1970s they'd think they'd been sent to hell because they're so spoiled to all the stuff they have nowadays.

To me, having lived in the middle class back then, people who say the middle class is worse off now either didn't live back then or they've forgotten what it was like.
Last edited by JohnStOnge on Sun Dec 13, 2015 3:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote:
They're doing the same thing as you John, except they know they're doing it. It being what we used to refer to "forcing the distribution". Let me set you on the right path instead of just grabbing numbers and trying to make them fit. What you need to do to compare today's middle class with back in the day is to compare lifestyles, as in what its really like out there. You may be too young to remember but there are people here who can verify that back in the day a middle class family could afford a modest house, two cars, and could save enough for two kids college tuition in 20 years. And they could do it on one income.

If you took a kid from the "typical" middle class family of today and sent them back in time to live under the conditions of a "typical" middle class family in the 1960s or 1970s they'd think they'd been sent to hell because they're so spoiled to all the stuff they have nowadays.

To me, having lived in the middle class back then, people who say the middle class is worse off now are completely nuts. They either didn't live back then or they've forgotten what it was like.
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by kalm »

AZGrizFan wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
If you took a kid from the "typical" middle class family of today and sent them back in time to live under the conditions of a "typical" middle class family in the 1960s or 1970s they'd think they'd been sent to hell because they're so spoiled to all the stuff they have nowadays.

To me, having lived in the middle class back then, people who say the middle class is worse off now are completely nuts. They either didn't live back then or they've forgotten what it was like.
Out of the park. Home run. Slam dunk.
Hey genius, I alluded to these things earlier.

Should we compare middle class lifestyles of the 70's to that during the post war period?

And what about all that growth associated with the tech explosion and "improvement" of middle class American life?
Since they're the ones buying it and growing the wealth and all.... :dunce: :lol:
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by JohnStOnge »

Hyperinflation in key expenses like health insurance, healthcare costs, education, housing, play a huge roll as does technology that you can't "live without."

There's also no mention of household debt and savings.
The internet is a wonderful thing. When I saw your reference to housing the first thought that came to my mind just due to life experience is that people have much bigger, nicer houses nowadays. And I was able to Google and find this:

https://www.census.gov/const/C25Ann/sft ... vgsqft.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It shows 1971 through 2010. The median square footage of a house in 1971 was 1,525. The median in 2010 was 2,169. I don't know how I could find something to back up my perception that houses are generally nicer and have more features now, but I think that they do. And I don't think it's anybody's "fault" that nowadays people apparently demand bigger and nicer houses.

Home ownership rates haven't changed that much either. Like you can look at the following figure in the document at http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs. ... 15-ch4.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;:

Image

It looks like a lot of variability because the scale only shows from 60 through 70 percent. But it's really not. What it shows is that home ownership has stayed within the 63 through 69 percent range and the level in 2014 was comparable, at a little over 64 percent, to the "golden years" of the American Middle Class (1960s and 70s).
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by JohnStOnge »

Hyperinflation in key expenses like health insurance, healthcare costs, education, housing, play a huge roll as does technology that you can't "live without."

There's also no mention of household debt and savings
Now for college. I agree that there has been hyperinflation in the cost of college and I frankly think that we need to quit acting as though people should just accept it instead of demanding some accountability on the part of educational institutions. However, there has been an increasing trend in college attendance. It's not like fewer people are getting to go to college than were getting to go during the "golden years" of the middle class:

Image

I can't find anything that shows a continuous trend from way back when through a year later than 2010. But I think it's pretty obvious that the rate is not lower now than it was during the "golden years" of the middle class.
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by JohnStOnge »

You guys need to understand something. I do not attempt to deceive with statistics. In fact it's one reason why I write a lot when I discuss them. You guys jab me about that but the reason I do it is that I'm making sure to fully explain what I'm doing. On the contrary, I am trying to combat people who DO deceive with statistics.

Now, I don't think the Pew center was trying to deceive with statistics. I really don't think they do that. I just don't agree with the way they defined the middle class. Don't see any basis for it. It's not even symmetric. By that I mean if you go with their numbers you're talking about the "middle class" being in the range of $21,000 below the median to about $63,000 above it. That's not a "middle." It's skewed.

The way I define middle class is consistent with convention. Consistent with the way the "average range" is typically defined in distributions.
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by ASUG8 »

Dems, I apologize for doing the best i could do and doing the best I could with my education....I shouldn't have tried so hard. I wish I could give you more free money, but I'm all tapped out. Your know, my bills and such that the makers take care of........... :coffee:
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by kalm »

93henfan wrote:
kalm wrote:
Que JSO's long post filled with manipulated stats and talk of medians and quintiles to prove this isn't true. :)
:lol: Fucking nailed it. :lol:
Boy howdy. :lol:

i don't even know where to start!
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by houndawg »

JohnStOnge wrote:You guys need to understand something. I do not attempt to deceive with statistics.
In fact it's one reason why I write a lot when I discuss them. You guys jab me about that but the reason I do it is that I'm making sure to fully explain what I'm doing. On the contrary, I am trying to combat people who DO deceive with statistics.

Now, I don't think the Pew center was trying to deceive with statistics. I really don't think they do that. I just don't agree with the way they defined the middle class. Don't see any basis for it. It's not even symmetric. By that I mean if you go with their numbers you're talking about the "middle class" being in the range of $21,000 below the median to about $63,000 above it. That's not a "middle." It's skewed.

The way I define middle class is consistent with convention. Consistent with the way the "average range" is typically defined in distributions.
Really? You just tried to convince us with statistics that wealth in America follows a normal distribution pattern when it actually looks more like a Poisson distribution.. :coffee:
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by YoUDeeMan »

"The tipping point for the middle class occurred over the last couple of years of the recovery from the Great Recession as the economy continued to reward highly educated workers, well-to-do investors and those with technical skills.

Rapid growth of upper-income households, coupled with an increase in less-educated low earners, has driven the decline of the middle-income population to a hair below 50% of the total this year..."



Only in 'Merica would someone complain about other people being successful. :lol:
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by kalm »

Cluck U wrote:"The tipping point for the middle class occurred over the last couple of years of the recovery from the Great Recession as the economy continued to reward highly educated workers, well-to-do investors and those with technical skills.

Rapid growth of upper-income households, coupled with an increase in less-educated low earners, has driven the decline of the middle-income population to a hair below 50% of the total this year..."



Only in 'Merica would someone complain about other people being successful. :lol:
Yes, wealth envy only happens here. Haven't they heard of the rising tide? Why can't we grow our way to the point where everyone is above the middle class?
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by AZGrizFan »

kalm wrote:
Cluck U wrote:"The tipping point for the middle class occurred over the last couple of years of the recovery from the Great Recession as the economy continued to reward highly educated workers, well-to-do investors and those with technical skills.

Rapid growth of upper-income households, coupled with an increase in less-educated low earners, has driven the decline of the middle-income population to a hair below 50% of the total this year..."



Only in 'Merica would someone complain about other people being successful. :lol:
Yes, wealth envy only happens here. Haven't they heard of the rising tide? Why can't we grow our way to the point where everyone is above the middle class?
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Oh, wait. You were serious?
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by kalm »

AZGrizFan wrote:
kalm wrote:
Yes, wealth envy only happens here. Haven't they heard of the rising tide? Why can't we grow our way to the point where everyone is above the middle class?
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Oh, wait. You were serious?
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by CAA Flagship »

kalm wrote:
Cluck U wrote:"The tipping point for the middle class occurred over the last couple of years of the recovery from the Great Recession as the economy continued to reward highly educated workers, well-to-do investors and those with technical skills.

Rapid growth of upper-income households, coupled with an increase in less-educated low earners, has driven the decline of the middle-income population to a hair below 50% of the total this year..."



Only in 'Merica would someone complain about other people being successful. :lol:
Yes, wealth envy only happens here. Haven't they heard of the rising tide? Why can't we grow our way to the point where everyone is above the middle class?
:shock: :? :wtf: :suspicious:
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by kalm »

CAA Flagship wrote:
kalm wrote:
Yes, wealth envy only happens here. Haven't they heard of the rising tide? Why can't we grow our way to the point where everyone is above the middle class?
:shock: :? :wtf: :suspicious:
Perpetual growth and wealth extraction are the answers my friend. Remove all the barriers to wealth creation and unleash the full potential of this super-charged economic engine. Pretty soon even the poor will be middle class! (It won't be with their own money, but they'll still be middle class!
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Re: Middle Class is Now a Minority

Post by CAA Flagship »

kalm wrote:
CAA Flagship wrote: :shock: :? :wtf: :suspicious:
Perpetual growth and wealth extraction are the answers my friend. Remove all the barriers to wealth creation and unleash the full potential of this super-charged economic engine. Pretty soon even the poor will be middle class! (It won't be with their own money, but they'll still be middle class!
Good news, class. Everyone gets a "C". :ohno: :ohno:
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