2016 Republican Primary

[Skjellyfetti]

Imagine if the guy you voted for in 2008 won.

He'll be hitting 80 here soon.

[YoUDeeMan]

Imagine if the guy you voted for in 2008 won.

He'll be hitting 80 here soon.

Yeah, but he's not near 80 over here.

[GannonFan]

I don't think Trump finishing second in Iowa was much of a shock to anyone. Like another poster said, Iowa is weird and it's all about the networking in state. And in the end, Iowa, especially on the Republican side of things, rarely predicts the winner for the nomination. We'll know if Trump has a legit chance or not somewhat after New Hampshire, and for certain after March 1st's Super Tuesday. The idea that buffoonery can transfer into votes will be known for certain by then and not really much before.

Heck, that's brilliant analysis.

Eh, not really, even I didn't think what I was writing was all that groundbreaking. February is for making grand pronouncements based on very little, and often unimportant, primaries and caucuses. Trump, win or lose, can hang around at least that long. Iowa and New Hampshire are like inventions by the press to give them something to talk about and to winnow the field of the O'Malley types.

[HI54UNI]

I don't think Trump finishing second in Iowa was much of a shock to anyone. Like another poster said, Iowa is weird and it's all about the networking in state. And in the end, Iowa, especially on the Republican side of things, rarely predicts the winner for the nomination. We'll know if Trump has a legit chance or not somewhat after New Hampshire, and for certain after March 1st's Super Tuesday. The idea that buffoonery can transfer into votes will be known for certain by then and not really much before.

I also think the public nature of the vote has an effect - especially to transfer votes from Trump to Cruz or Rubio.

People may not publically want to admit they support Trump, but would vote for him in a secret ballot.

Cruz has the advantage of church shaming - the pressure from fellow evangelicals to support him at the caucus.

Republican caucus is private ballot. Dems are the ones that allow the shaming by publicly stating your vote.

[dbackjon]

I also think the public nature of the vote has an effect - especially to transfer votes from Trump to Cruz or Rubio.

People may not publically want to admit they support Trump, but would vote for him in a secret ballot.

Cruz has the advantage of church shaming - the pressure from fellow evangelicals to support him at the caucus.

Republican caucus is private ballot. Dems are the ones that allow the shaming by publicly stating your vote.

Ok - good too know.

[BDKJMU]

Cruz winning didn't really surprise me. It's a lot harder to get your supporters out to vote in a caucus than a primary. Trump really didn't have the ground game to accomplish that. The establishment has been beating on Cruz really hard the last couple of weeks, particularly over ethanol, which hurt his final number. What surprised me was the number that coalesced around Rubio for his final number.

Cruz is unelectable in the general but I think he hurts Trump a little. The longer he stays in, the better for Rubio.

Wrong. If the election were held today Cruz would likely beat Hildacunt. RCP avg he is +1.3 over Hildacunt. The only other of the 11 conks ahead of Hildabeast in the RCP avg is Rubio (+2.5).
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... _race.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[dbackjon]

Cruz is unelectable in the general but I think he hurts Trump a little. The longer he stays in, the better for Rubio.

Wrong. If the election were held today Cruz would likely beat Hildacunt. RCP avg he is +1.3 over Hildacunt. The only other of the 11 conks ahead of Hildabeast in the RCP avg is Rubio (+2.5).
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... _race.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

LOL

[JohnStOnge]

Wrong. If the election were held today Cruz would likely beat Hildacunt. RCP avg he is +1.3 over Hildacunt. The only other of the 11 conks ahead of Hildabeast in the RCP avg is Rubio (+2.5).
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... _race.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

LOL

I think he's right. I think Rubio is by far the best shot for Republicans in the general...by a bigger margin than the polls currently suggest. But I think Cruz would indeed have a shot. It would be a very polarizing election. But I think he'd have a shot.

Cruz is sharp and Cruz is organized. He inspires intense emotions on either side. And unlike Trump he does have substance. He does have a real core of principles that he wants to implement.

[bluehenbillk]

Cross another one of the list - Rand Paul is OUT.

[Ibanez]

Cross another one of the list - Rand Paul is OUT.

Kasich will be out next week, as hopefully Bush and Christie will be.


I like Kasich though.

[Ivytalk]

Cross another one of the list - Rand Paul is OUT.

Yeah, he's up for re-election to the Senate this year. Better to have something than nothing.

[CAA Flagship]

Cross another one of the list - Rand Paul is OUT.

In October, Paul embarked on an online event in which he answered hostile questions from Twitter users.

One asked if he's still running for president.

"I dunno," he answered. "I wouldn't be doing this dumbass live streaming if I weren't."

http://news.yahoo.com/kentucky-sen-rand ... ction.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[houndawg]

LOL

I think he's right. I think Rubio is by far the best shot for Republicans in the general...by a bigger margin than the polls currently suggest. But I think Cruz would indeed have a shot. It would be a very polarizing election. But I think he'd have a shot.

Cruz is sharp and Cruz is organized. He inspires intense emotions on either side. And unlike Trump he does have substance. He does have a real core of principles that he wants to implement.

He'd crawl over his dying mother to fvck his dead sister.

Even his daughter is creeped out by him.

[SDHornet]

Wrong. If the election were held today Cruz would likely beat Hildacunt. RCP avg he is +1.3 over Hildacunt. The only other of the 11 conks ahead of Hildabeast in the RCP avg is Rubio (+2.5).
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... _race.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

LOL

This. Cruz has no shot against hildabeast in the general election.

[BDKJMU]

LOL

This. Cruz has no shot against hildabeast in the general election.

LOL That's why Cruz has been for several months and is still ahead of Hillary in the polls. Maybe if Hildabeast wasn't wounded. But while she won't likely be fatally wounded (indictment) she will still be wounded (underlings indicted and even if not everything that has already come out and the continual drip drip as the investigation drags on through 2016).

[dbackjon]

Down goes frothy mixture!


http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/03/politics/ ... ntial-bid/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[ASUG8]

Down goes frothy mixture!


http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/03/politics/ ... ntial-bid/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It was hard to tell that he was still in it.

[BDKJMU]

The 17 announced candidates, 9 remain:

-Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas since 2013; Solicitor General of Texas 2003–2008. Announced 3/23/15.

-Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida since 2011; Florida Speaker of the House 2007-2008. Announced 4/13/15.

-Ben Carson: Author and former Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery for Johns Hopkins Hospital. Announced 5/3/15.

-Carly Fiorina, former Hewlett-Packard CEO. Announced 5/4/15.

-Jeb Bush, Governor of Florida 1999–2007. Announced 6/15/15.

-Donald Trump, business magnate and television personality from New York. Announced on 6/16/15.

-Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey since 2010. Announced on 6/29/15.

John Kasich, Governor of Ohio since 2011. Also 18 years in Congress as a Rep from Ohio from 1983-2001. Announced on 7/21/15.

Jim Gilmore, former Gov of Virginia 1998-2002, Atty Gen of VA. Served 4 years in the Army (intel). Announced 7/29/15.

DROPPED OUT

-Rick Perry, Governor of Texas 2000–2015; Lieutenant Governor of Texas 1999–2000; presidential candidate in 2012. 5 years in Air Force, flew C-130s. Announced on 6/4/15, dropped out on 9/11/15.

-Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin since 2011. Announced on 7/13/15. Dropped out on 9/21/15.

-Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana since 2008; U.S. Representative from Louisiana 2005–2008. Announced on 6/24/15. Dropped out on 11/17/15.

-Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator from South Carolina since 2003; U.S. Representative from South Carolina 1995–2003. 6 years Army JAG, 26 years National Guard & Reserve. Announced 6/1/15. Dropped out on 12/21/15.

-George Pataki, Governor of New York 1995-2006. Announced on 5/28/15. Dropped out on 12/29/15.

-Mike Huckabee, Governor of Arkansas 1996–2007; presidential candidate in 2008. Announced 5/5/15. Dropped out on 2/1/16.

-Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky since 2011. Announced 4/7/15. Dropped out on 2/3/16.

-Rick Santorum, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania 1995-2007; Presidential candidate in the 2012 election. Announced 5/27/15. Dropped out on 2/3/16.

Updated. Field has been cut in almost half. And really Gilmore shouldn't even count:

"...He has rarely registered more than 1% in any national poll, often polling at 0%, and sometimes not even being offered as a choice. This resulted in Gilmore polling at an absolute 0.0% in the Huffington Post aggregate poll, and he is the only 2016 GOP candidate who does not even appear in the Real Clear Politics aggregate poll.[5][6] This nearly non-existent performance in the polls resulted in Gilmore failing to qualify for all but two of the "undercard" lower-tier debates (thus being the only commonly polled candidate not to do so).[7] Despite the significant lack of attention, Gilmore has insisted that he's "not going anywhere," and will continue to run.[8]

On October 30, 2015, Jim Gilmore was verified on Twitter.[9]

On January 26, 2016, after being denied participation in five consecutive official debates, Gilmore was finally invited back for the "undercard" debate on January 28 (once again hosted by Fox News), which was the first of the final two debates before the Iowa caucuses.[10][dead link]....."

Gilmore got a dozen votes statewide in the 2016 Iowa caucuses.[11][12]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Gilmo ... aign,_2016" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Ivytalk]

What's taking "Happy" Gilmore so long to say "so long"? JHTFC.

[Ibanez]

Is Santorum confirmed? I know he was supposed to come to SC today.

[dbackjon]

Is Santorum confirmed? I know he was supposed to come to SC today.

He says he has a major announcement tonight.


So either he's dropping out, or he and Graham are getting married.

[YoUDeeMan]

Is Santorum confirmed? I know he was supposed to come to SC today.

He says he has a major announcement tonight.


So either he's dropping out, or he and Graham are getting married.

Don't be jealous.

[dbackjon]

He says he has a major announcement tonight.


So either he's dropping out, or he and Graham are getting married.

Don't be jealous.

Not my cup of tea.

[YoUDeeMan]

Don't be jealous.

Not my cup of tea bagging.

FIFY

[Ibanez]

Is Santorum confirmed? I know he was supposed to come to SC today.

He says he has a major announcement tonight.


So either he's dropping out, or he and Graham are getting married.

He's cuddling a fetus.