Court declares NC Congressional Districts UNCONSTITUTIONAL

[AZGrizFan]

North Carolina is 77% white. If they didn't draw districts that way it's highly likely there would be NO democratic representation in the House. Be careful what you ask for.

Wrong.

In 2012, Republicans won 9 of 13 House seats in North Carolina.

Democrats won 51% of the overall vote in House elections.

So, with 51% of the overall vote in the state, Democrats won 23% of the seats.

THAT'S how gerrymandering works.

Their votes were simply concentrated in heavily "Democratic" (read: black) districts.

(Democrats won the 1st District, the 4th District, and the 12th district with over 75% of the vote. Most of the districts Republicans won were in the 50s. Without the black vote being concentrated, the House split would have been closer to the 50/50 split of the actual vote. )

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/r ... -carolina/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Operating under the assumption that the EXACT SAME PEOPLE would have voted in both scenarios...yeah, sure. If it were only that simple.

Because NOBODY ever decides not to vote because their vote isn't needed.

[Ibanez]

Wasn't the GOP in the minority for about 100 yrs in the NC General Assembly?

[CID1990]

If that happened the only Democratic spots in NC would be Charlotte, Asheville, and the Dirty Durham.

Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point? Wilmington?

Doubtful on the GSO/WS/HP area. That area is FULL of white flight from the surrounding tobacco land now that tobacco has essentially gone away from the small farmers.

Wilmington is getting gentrified as hell but with Yankees so who knows about Wilmington.

And don't forget- if boundaries are drawn by population then the only city that would be a district unto itself would be Charlotte.

Wilmington would be diluted by the beach islands, Morehead City, Beaufort, etc because they would be part of the same district.

[AshevilleApp]

Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point? Wilmington?

Doubtful on the GSO/WS/HP area. That area is FULL of white flight from the surrounding tobacco land now that tobacco has essentially gone away from the small farmers.

Wilmington is getting gentrified as hell but with Yankees so who knows about Wilmington.

And don't forget- if boundaries are drawn by population then the only city that would be a district unto itself would be Charlotte.

Wilmington would be diluted by the beach islands, Morehead City, Beaufort, etc because they would be part of the same district.

I think it would be really close in the Triad. Solely based on demographics, the big three cities are evenly split. Wilmington would be offset somewhat I agree. You also have a fairly large military/ex-military population in the east. I do find it interesting that you didn't include Raleigh and Chapel Hill/Pittsboro as well.

In any event, I think the fallacy in trying to create districts based on demographics is the assumption that all white people are Republicans and Black people are Democrats.

What I see happening to some degree is that younger people are more interested in living in cities than before. They also tend towards being Democrat or Independent. What I've found way more interesting than the re-redistricting since 2010 has been the way the Legislature has targeted the Cities.

[Skjellyfetti]

These professors used randomized probability distributions to simulate the redistricting process 100 times.

And ran the results from the 2012 election through each of them.

Democrats received between 6 and 9 seats (out of 13) in 95% of simulations.

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1410.8796v1.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Yeah, yeah, yeah. Liberal elite using models and math and stuff.

AZ thinks Democrats would have 0 House seats in North Carolina if the state was redistricted.

CID thinks they would have 3 seats.

It's pretty clear that they're wrong.

Especially AZ.

[CID1990]

These professors used randomized probability distributions to simulate the redistricting process 100 times.

And ran the results from the 2012 election through each of them.

Democrats received between 6 and 9 seats (out of 13) in 95% of simulations.

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1410.8796v1.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Yeah, yeah, yeah. Liberal elite using models and math and stuff.

AZ thinks Democrats would have 0 House seats in North Carolina if the state was redistricted.

CID thinks they would have 3 seats.

It's pretty clear that they're wrong.

Especially AZ.

The only thing that is clear is you don't follow what I'm saying.

If they redistricted purely along geographical and population lines, Dems would lose seats. I make no predictions how many that would be, but they are they way they are today in order to give the franchise to minority voters.

If redistricting would benefit that aim, then NC would already be redistricted along the lines in your suggested map, because again, it is Democrats who are largely responsible for the lay of the land as it is today.

[kalm]

I've never really spent any time looking at how our state redistricts. I don't know how this compares to others, but it seems fairly clean.

Washington's 10th congressional district is a congressional district created by the 2010 United States Census that elected a member of the United States House of Representatives beginning with the 2012 elections. By Washington state law, a non-partisan commission composed of two Republicans, two Democrats, and a non-voting chairperson drew the boundaries for this new district as well as the new boundaries for Washington's existing districts.[2] Its current representative is Dennis Heck.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washingto ... l_district" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And here's a helpful, if a little bit off-scale, map of the demographics:



Fuck you, Cleets.

[kalm]

Here's a better map:

[andy7171]

Here's a better map:

It might be because I'm from Maryland, but this map looks pretty reasonable.

[YoUDeeMan]

Wasn't the GOP in the minority for about 100 yrs in the NC General Assembly?

You misspoke. What you meant to say was that both grand old parties didn't let minorities into the NC General Assembly for about 100 years.

[Grizalltheway]

Here's a better map:

Way too complicated.

[GannonFan]

Obviously there's just tons of complications from the fact that we're dealing with areas that purposely and forcefully restricted minority voting and representation for the better part of a century. In addition, it's further complicated by the clumsy attempts to ensure a single or more minority representative by packing a district, no matter the geographical gymnastics, with as many of a minority group as possible. So now trying to back away from those contorted maps, and the fact that a minority could lose a seat in a less demographically uniform district, causes such consternation.

IMO, I think there should be a complete refresh in every state. Follow the example of those states where an equal number of representatives from each party, and a neutral arbiter, start fresh and draw the districts as it makes sense in terms of population density and geography. While the South has their issues of weird districts to either block minorities or conversely protect minorities, the North is full of weird districts based on a century of partisan back and forth. Start anew everywhere and go from there. I'll call it the "turn the page" movement.

[AZGrizFan]

These professors used randomized probability distributions to simulate the redistricting process 100 times.

And ran the results from the 2012 election through each of them.

Democrats received between 6 and 9 seats (out of 13) in 95% of simulations.

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1410.8796v1.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Yeah, yeah, yeah. Liberal elite using models and math and stuff.

AZ thinks Democrats would have 0 House seats in North Carolina if the state was redistricted.

CID thinks they would have 3 seats.

It's pretty clear that they're wrong.

Especially AZ.

Kind of like all those elite models and math that predicted a conk victory in 2008?

[AshevilleApp]

Obviously there's just tons of complications from the fact that we're dealing with areas that purposely and forcefully restricted minority voting and representation for the better part of a century. In addition, it's further complicated by the clumsy attempts to ensure a single or more minority representative by packing a district, no matter the geographical gymnastics, with as many of a minority group as possible. So now trying to back away from those contorted maps, and the fact that a minority could lose a seat in a less demographically uniform district, causes such consternation.

IMO, I think there should be a complete refresh in every state. Follow the example of those states where an equal number of representatives from each party, and a neutral arbiter, start fresh and draw the districts as it makes sense in terms of population density and geography. While the South has their issues of weird districts to either block minorities or conversely protect minorities, the North is full of weird districts based on a century of partisan back and forth. Start anew everywhere and go from there. I'll call it the "turn the page" movement.

I agree.

[CID1990]

Obviously there's just tons of complications from the fact that we're dealing with areas that purposely and forcefully restricted minority voting and representation for the better part of a century. In addition, it's further complicated by the clumsy attempts to ensure a single or more minority representative by packing a district, no matter the geographical gymnastics, with as many of a minority group as possible. So now trying to back away from those contorted maps, and the fact that a minority could lose a seat in a less demographically uniform district, causes such consternation.

IMO, I think there should be a complete refresh in every state. Follow the example of those states where an equal number of representatives from each party, and a neutral arbiter, start fresh and draw the districts as it makes sense in terms of population density and geography. While the South has their issues of weird districts to either block minorities or conversely protect minorities, the North is full of weird districts based on a century of partisan back and forth. Start anew everywhere and go from there. I'll call it the "turn the page" movement.

I agree.

Or at least go with a map that doesn't look like an octopus and a centipede fvcking

[AshevilleApp]

I agree.

Or at least go with a map that doesn't look like an octopus and a centipede fvcking

Or a tumor heading west.

[Ibanez]

Here's a better map:

Way too complicated.

When you have 300 people, it only makes sense to have 1 district.

[Grizalltheway]

Way too complicated.

When you have 300 people, it only makes sense to have 1 district.

301, buttwipe.

[Ibanez]

When you have 300 people, it only makes sense to have 1 district.

301, buttwipe.

Well, I stand corrected.

[Skjellyfetti]

Kind of like all those elite models and math that predicted a conk victory in 2008?

No, I think that was just your dumbass that predicted a Conk victory in 2008.

And, I have a crappy Montana hat to show for it.

[Grizalltheway]

Kind of like all those elite models and math that predicted a conk victory in 2008?

No, I think that was just your dumbass that predicted a Conk victory in 2008.

And, I have a crappy Montana hat to show for it.

Looks like App's ass after that spanking in 2013.

[andy7171]

No, I think that was just your dumbass that predicted a Conk victory in 2008.

And, I have a crappy Montana hat to show for it.

Looks like App's ass after that spanking in 2013.

AZ quoted followed by a App and hat mention.

[dbackjon]

Kind of like all those elite models and math that predicted a conk victory in 2008?

No, I think that was just your dumbass that predicted a Conk victory in 2008.

And, I have a crappy Montana hat to show for it.

me too!

[AZGrizFan]

Kind of like all those elite models and math that predicted a conk victory in 2008?

No, I think that was just your dumbass that predicted a Conk victory in 2008.

And, I have a crappy Montana hat to show for it.

OK. Yeah, it was just me.

[JohnStOnge]

Holy crap I agree with Skjellyfetti on something.