2016 Republican Primary

[Skjellyfetti]

All the statistics, all the math pointed to Obama winning by a nice margin leading up to the '12 election, and yet Republicans had absolutely convinced themselves (including many here) that Romney was going to take it.

I've tried to explain this to BDK and others.

November is about the electoral map.
http://www.270towin.com/

Trump (or whoever the Republican nominee is) has to make up ground in swing states. Getting the insane fringe of the party to turn out in droves in Mississippi, Utah, and other staunchly conservative places doesn't do anything to help him.

If a Republican is going to win in November, they have to appeal to independent swing voters that aren't strongly aligned to either party. Trump is not going to do that. Look at any poll on independent voters. He scores by far the lowest.

I think Trump would win North Carolina. I don't think he would win Virginia, but that would be the next most likely state he would pick up. But, if he greatly exceeded expectations... and, also picked up Ohio and Florida.... he would STILL lose.

[93henfan]

Get rid of the **** obnoxious siggy.

Speaking of that. I mean just look at that picture. Is it not pretty darned surreal that there is actually a substantial number of people who are supporting that guy to be President of the United States? I mean really. Just look at that.



What the HELL is going on in this country?

PM your address. I'll send you some cheese to go with that whine.

[Baldy]

If a Republican is going to win in November, they have to appeal to independent swing voters that aren't strongly aligned to either party. Trump is not going to do that. Look at any poll on independent voters. He scores by far the lowest.

I think Trump would win North Carolina. I don't think he would win Virginia, but that would be the next most likely state he would pick up. But, if he greatly exceeded expectations... and, also picked up Ohio and Florida.... he would STILL lose.

Independents HATE The Hildabeast.



-31 since 2008.

Independents are not going to come out and vote for The Hildabeast. They just aren't. In fact, they would be more inclined to come out to vote against her.

Even someone at the HuffPoo agrees.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodm ... 96238.html

[93henfan]

She's going up with Republicans though as the Donald rises.

[BDKJMU]

All the statistics, all the math pointed to Obama winning by a nice margin leading up to the '12 election, and yet Republicans had absolutely convinced themselves (including many here) that Romney was going to take it.

I've tried to explain this to BDK and others.

November is about the electoral map.
http://www.270towin.com/

Trump (or whoever the Republican nominee is) has to make up ground in swing states. Getting the insane fringe of the party to turn out in droves in Mississippi, Utah, and other staunchly conservative places doesn't do anything to help him.

If a Republican is going to win in November, they have to appeal to independent swing voters that aren't strongly aligned to either party. Trump is not going to do that. Look at any poll on independent voters. He scores by far the lowest.

I think Trump would win North Carolina. I don't think he would win Virginia, but that would be the next most likely state he would pick up. But, if he greatly exceeded expectations... and, also picked up Ohio and Florida.... he would STILL lose.

And neither is Hillary, as Baldy pointed out with those KYJelly like graphs..Hillary is a terrible candidate- The only thing she has going for her is 2 tits and a slit (I think). Didn't do anything in the Senate. Terrible records as a Sec of State. She would lose handsdown to any of the other 3 conk candidates. Against Trump is a total wildcard.

Whichever side has the most voter intensity will win, because intensity will = turnout. And judging by the primary turnout there isn't very much intensity on the donk side- turnout is WAY down from 08'. On the conk side, it is way up.

[BDKJMU]

"Hillary could lose to Trump in Democratic New York

Confidential polling data shows Hillary Clinton could lose the presidential election in heavily Democratic New York to Donald Trump as the GOP front-runner’s support grows to the point of being “surprisingly strong,” The Post has learned.

The poll results, from Democratic and Republican legislative races, have surprised many leading Dems, virtually all of whom have endorsed Clinton, while confounding and energizing GOP leaders, many of whom until recently have been opposed to Trump.

“There are some Democrats who think that Hillary can be taken if Trump mounts a strong campaign,’’ one of the state’s most prominent Democrats said.....

......The new polls, a second source said, showed Trump’s support, even without Bloomberg in the race, was “surprisingly strong’’ in Westchester and on Long Island, the key suburbs often viewed as crucial swing bellwethers on how statewide elections will turn out.

The polls found that Clinton often had higher negative ratings with voters than did the more controversial Trump, whose inflammatory pronouncements have often angered and even horrified many of his fellow Republicans.

“In the suburbs and upstate, Trump has a net positive while Hillary is a net negative,” one longtime Republican operative contended. “She’s more of a liability than many Democrats realized.”

Some of the polls also found a greater degree of intensity among Trump’s potential voters than among Clinton’s, a finding that mirrors the stronger GOP turnouts that have been registered in the presidential primaries.

A publicly disclosed Siena College poll of Long Island voters last week found Trump narrowly beating Clinton among Long Island voters, 41 percent to 38 percent, while he was crushing his two nearest GOP primary opponents, Marco Rubio and John Kasich, by 37 percentage points each.
http://nypost.com/2016/02/28/hillary-co ... -new-york/

[93henfan]

And if he brings along the camel toe as veep, Jersey might be in play too. Can you imagine NY and NJ going red? That's an explosive bowel movement waiting to happen for the dems.

[AZGrizFan]

And if he brings along the camel toe as veep, Jersey might be in play too. Can you imagine NY and NJ going red? That's an explosive bowel movement waiting to happen for the dems.

I'm still trying to wrap my head around 4 years of Trump in the White House.

[93henfan]

And if he brings along the camel toe as veep, Jersey might be in play too. Can you imagine NY and NJ going red? That's an explosive bowel movement waiting to happen for the dems.

I'm still trying to wrap my head around 4 years of Trump in the White House.

America will be halfway toward great again by then.

[HI54UNI]

And if he brings along the camel toe as veep, Jersey might be in play too. Can you imagine NY and NJ going red? That's an explosive bowel movement waiting to happen for the dems.

There was an article the other day about how Massachusetts could go red for Trump as well.

[HI54UNI]

And if he brings along the camel toe as veep, Jersey might be in play too. Can you imagine NY and NJ going red? That's an explosive bowel movement waiting to happen for the dems.

There was an article the other day about how Massachusetts could go red for Trump as well.

[93henfan]

East Coast, bitches!

[Chizzang]

I'm still trying to wrap my head around 4 years of Trump in the White House.

America will be halfway toward great again by then.

The adorable thing is Trump is actually harmless...
He couldn't possibly be stupider and make worse appointments than the previous two presidents
I really do mean it would be almost impossible

The is idea that "trump is Dangerous" in the Whitehouse is complete bullsh!t
Do you really think Trump is MORE dangerous than Hilary ..?

I think not...
Is he more controversial - YES

[93henfan]

America will be halfway toward great again by then.

The adorable thing is Trump is actually harmless...
He couldn't possibly be stupider and make worse appointments than the previous two presidents
I really do mean it would be almost impossible

The is idea that "trump is Dangerous" in the Whitehouse is complete bullsh!t
Do you really think Trump is MORE dangerous than Hilary ..?

I think not...
Is he more controversial - YES

Exactly!

And we'd all feel less crappy after four below average years from Trump than we would four below average years from the so-called polished types like Clinton and Rubio.

There's no pretending with the Don. He doesn't even deny his fuckups. He just says he settled.

[Baldy]

America will be halfway toward great again by then.

The adorable thing is Trump is actually harmless...
He couldn't possibly be stupider and make worse appointments than the previous two presidents
I really do mean it would be almost impossible

The is idea that "trump is Dangerous" in the Whitehouse is complete bullsh!t
Do you really think Trump is MORE dangerous than Hilary ..?

I think not...
Is he more controversial - YES

The best Chizzy post of all time.

[AZGrizFan]

America will be halfway toward great again by then.

The adorable thing is Trump is actually harmless...
He couldn't possibly be stupider and make worse appointments than the previous two presidents
I really do mean it would be almost impossible

The is idea that "trump is Dangerous" in the Whitehouse is complete bullsh!t
Do you really think Trump is MORE dangerous than Hilary ..?

I think not...
Is he more controversial - YES

Remember when y'all thought there was no WAY Obama could be more stupid than Bush?

[Ibanez]

America will be halfway toward great again by then.

The adorable thing is Trump is actually harmless...
He couldn't possibly be stupider and make worse appointments than the previous two presidents
I really do mean it would be almost impossible

The is idea that "trump is Dangerous" in the Whitehouse is complete bullsh!t
Do you really think Trump is MORE dangerous than Hilary ..?

I think not...
Is he more controversial - YES

I've been saying since last year, could Trump really be any worse than a traditional politician? No. He's 1 of 3 branches.

We've set the bar so low.

[Chizzang]

The adorable thing is Trump is actually harmless...
He couldn't possibly be stupider and make worse appointments than the previous two presidents
I really do mean it would be almost impossible

The is idea that "trump is Dangerous" in the Whitehouse is complete bullsh!t
Do you really think Trump is MORE dangerous than Hilary ..?

I think not...
Is he more controversial - YES

Remember when y'all thought there was no WAY Obama could be more stupid than Bush?

I don't think he's actually "stupider" but he's made stupider decisions...
BUT: Stupid is as Stupid does... so on that scale he's technically stupider

It's tricky... Suffice to say they were both absolutely horrible

[AZGrizFan]

Remember when y'all thought there was no WAY Obama could be more stupid than Bush?

I don't think he's actually "stupider" but he's made stupider decisions...
BUT: Stupid is as Stupid does... so on that scale he's technically stupider

It's tricky... Suffice to say they were both absolutely horrible

I'm just sayin'....to say that it's virtually impossible is probably overstating it....just when we think we've hit bottom, along comes the next president to prove us all wrong.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM[/youtube]

[houndawg]

I don't think he's actually "stupider" but he's made stupider decisions...
BUT: Stupid is as Stupid does... so on that scale he's technically stupider

It's tricky... Suffice to say they were both absolutely horrible

I'm just sayin'....to say that it's virtually impossible is probably overstating it....just when we think we've hit bottom, along comes the next president to prove us all wrong.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM[/youtube]

Is there a floor for Absolute Stupid like there is for Absolute Zero? (I mean Absolute Zero in the thermodynamic sense, not in the JSO sense..)

[AZGrizFan]

I'm just sayin'....to say that it's virtually impossible is probably overstating it....just when we think we've hit bottom, along comes the next president to prove us all wrong.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM[/youtube]

Is there a floor for Absolute Stupid like there is for Absolute Zero? (I mean Absolute Zero in the thermodynamic sense, not in the JSO sense..)

Well, they're making new political discoveries every day. Again, Juuuuuust when we think we've hit the theoretical "bottom" for Absolute Stupid, along comes some politican to push the boundaries of science by going lower. It's amazing, really.

[BDKJMU]

All the statistics, all the math pointed to Obama winning by a nice margin leading up to the '12 election, and yet Republicans had absolutely convinced themselves (including many here) that Romney was going to take it.

I've tried to explain this to BDK and others.

Wrong. Of the 9 polls in the RCP avg in the 6 days before the election, 4 favored Obama, 3 were actual ties, and 2 favored Romney. The RCP avg was Obama + 7/10ths of 1 percent, a virtual dead heat. Yet Obama's margin of victory, 3.9%, went against the pre election polls. #1 reason was turnout on the donk sode, and lack pf it on the conk side.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1171.html

[houndawg]

The adorable thing is Trump is actually harmless...
He couldn't possibly be stupider and make worse appointments than the previous two presidents
I really do mean it would be almost impossible

The is idea that "trump is Dangerous" in the Whitehouse is complete bullsh!t
Do you really think Trump is MORE dangerous than Hilary ..?

I think not...
Is he more controversial - YES

Remember when y'all thought there was no WAY Obama could be more stupid than Bush?

Remember when criticizing the President was treason? The Dixie Chicks do..

[Baldy]

Remember when y'all thought there was no WAY Obama could be more stupid than Bush?

Remember when criticizing the President was treason? The Dixie Chicks do..

That's so 2003.

It's 2016, criticizing the President now only makes you a racist.

[YoUDeeMan]

Remember when y'all thought there was no WAY Obama could be more stupid than Bush?

I don't think he's actually "stupider" but he's made stupider decisions...
BUT: Stupid is as Stupid does... so on that scale he's technically stupider

It's tricky... Suffice to say they were both absolutely horrible

I thought politics and judicial issues didn't impact you?