NY Primary

[GannonFan]

Agreed. Cruz has been a non-entity except in the deep South and in pockets of uber-committed tea party folks, which is a small minority, but controlling minority, in the GOP. The GOP can follow that strategy to great success in individual races around the country (hence their dominance in everything but the Presidency) but it's not a recipe for success in a nation-wide personality contest that is the Presidency. Cruz simply isn't electable in a Presidential race.

Actually, Trump swept the SEC states (AL, AR, GA, TN, KY, LA, MS).

He (Cruz) tends to win flyover states and places where they hold elections without actual voters deciding.

True, the real deep South isn't the province of the tea party folks, and you're right, they are more in those isolated packet of states.

Although PA gets their own rebuke, at least on the Republican side. We get to vote in the primary for the person we want to represent the party, but we also get to vote on delegates who actually decide who they want to vote for at the convention, and the delegates aren't bound by anything to represent the popular vote of the state, or even their district. PA has had quite the history of being kingmakers at conventions and apparently still wants to be involved in that.

[JohnStOnge]

Trump wins. America wins. JSO is on suicide watch.



Clinton leads Sanders by 9% but too close to call.

Well, I'm not on suicide watch. Nor will I be no matter what happens. But I was hoping New York Republican voters would show a LITTLE more sense than they did. By that I mean my thing was hoping he wouldn't cross 50%. I realized going in that he probably would. But I was hoping not.

[Ibanez]

Trump wins. America wins. JSO is on suicide watch.



Clinton leads Sanders by 9% but too close to call.

Well, I'm not on suicide watch. Nor will I be no matter what happens. But I was hoping New York Republican voters would show a LITTLE more sense than they did. By that I mean my thing was hoping he wouldn't cross 50%. I realized going in that he probably would. But I was hoping not.

Why didn't the Republicans vote for someone else? Aren't you frequently saying that Republicans aren't voting for him?

[JohnStOnge]

His only redeeming quality is that he might have been able to overcome Trump's delegate lead but that possibility is going away.

Stick a fork in Cruz.

No, his (Cruz) redeeming qualities are that he is way smarter than Trump and way more organized so that if he can keep Trump from gaining a first ballot majority he could very well win. I told you guys about that some time ago after the Louisiana Republican convention. As I told you about Louisiana the Louisiana Republican convention elected a bunch of Cruz supporters as delegates. Most if not all of the ones that are obligated to vote for Trump on the first ballot are going to vote for Cruz after that. At the time I said I suspect that's happening all over the country. And it's becoming clear that it has.

That's why Trump's been demagoguing about the process. If Trump does not win on the first ballot he is probably in trouble. Again: The majority of Republicans do NOT want him to be the nominee.

[dbackjon]

In Trump's favor are that many of the states remaining are winner take all.

In NY, he took 89 of the 93 delegates. Kasich took 4. Cruz 0.


He's the nominee

[BDKJMU]

His only redeeming quality is that he might have been able to overcome Trump's delegate lead but that possibility is going away.

Stick a fork in Cruz.

No, his (Cruz) redeeming qualities are that he is way smarter than Trump and way more organized so that if he can keep Trump from gaining a first ballot majority he could very well win. I told you guys about that some time ago after the Louisiana Republican convention. As I told you about Louisiana the Louisiana Republican convention elected a bunch of Cruz supporters as delegates. Most if not all of the ones that are obligated to vote for Trump on the first ballot are going to vote for Cruz after that. At the time I said I suspect that's happening all over the country. And it's becoming clear that it has.

That's why Trump's been demagoguing about the process. If Trump does not win on the first ballot he is probably in trouble. Again: The majority of Republicans do NOT want him to be the nominee.

Its clear by the voting that more Republicans want Trump than Cruz, or Kasich, or any of the other 14 that were in the race at one time. There isn't a Republican canididate that the majorty of conk voters want.

[BDKJMU]

No, his (Cruz) redeeming qualities are that he is way smarter than Trump and way more organized so that if he can keep Trump from gaining a first ballot majority he could very well win. I told you guys about that some time ago after the Louisiana Republican convention. As I told you about Louisiana the Louisiana Republican convention elected a bunch of Cruz supporters as delegates. Most if not all of the ones that are obligated to vote for Trump on the first ballot are going to vote for Cruz after that. At the time I said I suspect that's happening all over the country. And it's becoming clear that it has.

That's why Trump's been demagoguing about the process. If Trump does not win on the first ballot he is probably in trouble. Again: The majority of Republicans do NOT want him to be the nominee.

Its clear by the voting that more Republicans want Trump than Cruz, or Kasich, or any of the other 14 that were in the race at one time. There isn't a Republican canididate that the majorty of conk voters want.

[JohnStOnge]

Why didn't the Republicans vote for someone else? Aren't you frequently saying that Republicans aren't voting for him?

To date the majority of Republicans DID vote for someone else. I just saw a graphic on it. Even after New York Donald Trump is currently at 37.9 percent of the Republican primary vote. It's what you already know: He has benefitted from the vote by people who DON'T want him being divided. This is not a "majority" candidate. If you really stand back and look at it this is the weakest performance by a Republican "front runner" of my lifetime.

One thing that really helped him is that he got through the South with other guys dividing the vote. There was a poll taken before the Tuesday of the Florida primary that knocked Rubio out that showed that, at that point, Republican primary voters favored Cruz by 54% to 41% over Trump in a one on one matchup ((http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/201 ... one-on-one) . But by that time Trump had already won a bunch of Southern primaries because there were so many candidates in the field dividing the vote .

Had it been Cruz vs. Trump one on one from the beginning Trump would not be the front runner. For that matter Trump wouldn't be the front runner if it had been Rubio vs. Trump one on one from the beginning. We just had this perfect storm where Trump got into a field of 17 candidates with this hard core support group that has apparently suspended its critical thinking skills. And by the time candidates started dropping out enough the part of the primary season that had the most potential to benefit Cruz was already past.

[JohnStOnge]

Its clear by the voting that more Republicans want Trump than Cruz, or Kasich, or any of the other 14 that were in the race at one time.

No, it's not. What's clear is that there are more Republicans that have Trump as their first choice than have any single other Republican candidate as their first choice. But see the poll I referenced in my last post. That was about a month ago. But I still think it likely that if you could have a do over and put Trump one on one against the various Republican candidates that started there are a number of them that the majority of Republicans would favor over Trump if that were their two choices.

I think that right now, for instance, if you asked Republican voters who they would pick between Rubio and Trump if those were their only two choices and they could by picking that person have THEM be the general election candidate Rubio would win that poll by double digits.

[93henfan]

You are delusional sir.

[JohnStOnge]

You are delusional sir.

I don't think I am. I am looking for a later poll for Cruz and Trump head to head. But things were pretty much the same a month ago in terms of where they were on the vote with multiple candidates in the race. At that time Trump was at 36.0% in the Real Clear Politics poll of Republican primary voters while Cruz was at 20.8. At that time the poll I cited had Cruz up by 54% to 41% over Trump if those were the only two choices. Now the Real Clear Politics average has Trump up by 40.3% to 31.3% with only Kasich still in the race.

There's nothing in those numbers to suggest that anything has changed over the last month with respect to what would happen if Republican voters had one vote for who the nominee is going to be and the only two choices were Cruz and Trump. What's happened is what you would expect. The gap between Trump and Cruz narrowed significantly when other candidates dropped out. And I think it's perfectly reasonable to believe that most of the people voting for Kasich would be voting for Cruz if the only other option was Trump.

[Ibanez]

His only redeeming quality is that he might have been able to overcome Trump's delegate lead but that possibility is going away.

Stick a fork in Cruz.

No, his (Cruz) redeeming qualities are that he is way smarter than Trump and way more organized so that if he can keep Trump from gaining a first ballot majority he could very well win. I told you guys about that some time ago after the Louisiana Republican convention. As I told you about Louisiana the Louisiana Republican convention elected a bunch of Cruz supporters as delegates. Most if not all of the ones that are obligated to vote for Trump on the first ballot are going to vote for Cruz after that. At the time I said I suspect that's happening all over the country. And it's becoming clear that it has.

That's why Trump's been demagoguing about the process. If Trump does not win on the first ballot he is probably in trouble. Again: The majority of Republicans do NOT want him to be the nominee.

You keep harping on smarts. He's smarter than Trump. To me, that means NOTHING. He's dangerous. He'd loony. What the hell does smarts have to do with anything when the guy is Theocrat who will do more damage than Trump, if elected.


I was talking with my parents earlier and they, who I'm sure vote straight ticket Republicans, said they couldn't pull the switch for Cruz. He's "weasley (sic), a liar, crazy and as untrustworthy as Clinton."

[Ibanez]

Why didn't the Republicans vote for someone else? Aren't you frequently saying that Republicans aren't voting for him?

To date the majority of Republicans DID vote for someone else. I just saw a graphic on it. Even after New York Donald Trump is currently at 37.9 percent of the Republican primary vote. It's what you already know: He has benefitted from the vote by people who DON'T want him being divided. This is not a "majority" candidate. If you really stand back and look at it this is the weakest performance by a Republican "front runner" of my lifetime.

One thing that really helped him is that he got through the South with other guys dividing the vote. There was a poll taken before the Tuesday of the Florida primary that knocked Rubio out that showed that, at that point, Republican primary voters favored Cruz by 54% to 41% over Trump in a one on one matchup ((http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/201 ... one-on-one) . But by that time Trump had already won a bunch of Southern primaries because there were so many candidates in the field dividing the vote .

Had it been Cruz vs. Trump one on one from the beginning Trump would not be the front runner. For that matter Trump wouldn't be the front runner if it had been Rubio vs. Trump one on one from the beginning. We just had this perfect storm where Trump got into a field of 17 candidates with this hard core support group that has apparently suspended its critical thinking skills. And by the time candidates started dropping out enough the part of the primary season that had the most potential to benefit Cruz was already past.

If that were true, then Trump wouldn't be the front runner. Trump has a popular total of 8,722,467, that's +2,332,967 spread.

Why do you keep lying to yourself John? Embrace the future! A White House that's occupied by someone other than a career politician/lawyer.

[93henfan]

Yeah, Cruz is easily the least likable candidate of a very unlikable class of candidates.

93henfan's Official Likability Index:

1. John Kasich
2. Bernie Sanders
3. Hillary Clinton
4. Donald Trump
5. Ted Cruz

[Ibanez]

Yeah, Cruz is easily the least likable candidate of a very unlikable class of candidates.

93henfan's Official Likability Index:

1. John Kasich
2. Bernie Sanders
3. Hillary Clinton
4. Donald Trump
5. Ted Cruz

Mines simliar

1. John Kasich
2. Bernie Sanders
3. Donald Trump
4. Ronald Regans decomposing body.

Tied for 666. Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton

[JohnStOnge]

If that were true, then Trump wouldn't be the front runner. Trump has a popular total of 8,722,467, that's +2,332,967 spread.

Trump having more popular votes than Cruz does is not at all inconsistent with what I wrote. He had more popular votes back on March 8 when that article I linked reported that Cruz would beat Trump by 54% to 41% among Republican voters if those were the only two choices.

Trump has more popular votes than Cruz because the vote among people who don't want Trump has been split from the beginning. I don't get why you think Trump being the frontrunner demonstrates that as untrue. It's pretty obviously true.

And, look, I'm talking about Cruz because he's the only one left. As I said, I don't think he's the only one of the original candidates who would beat Trump among Republican voters if it was Trump vs. one other person. I think there are several.

You know Hen said I'm delusional but I think you guys are delusional if you can't see that there is a whole lot of opposition to the idea of Trump being the nominee within the Republican rank and file and that it is unusually intense. Why do you think there is a "Never Trump" movement? Was there a "Never Romney" movement? A "Never Bob Dole" movement? Why do you think it is that the nomination hasn't been decided at this point? Trump calls Romney a loser but Romney had the Republican nomination wrapped up at this point. McCain did too. A lot of Republicans just flat do not want Trump. Also it's not just that he's not their favorite...the candidate they'd most want. They REALLY don't want HIM in particular.

[DSUrocks07]

"Republicans REALLY REALLY want Cruz to be the candidate, they just don't know it yet." - JSO

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

[Ibanez]

If that were true, then Trump wouldn't be the front runner. Trump has a popular total of 8,722,467, that's +2,332,967 spread.

Trump having more popular votes than Cruz does is not at all inconsistent with what I wrote. He had more popular votes back on March 8 when that article I linked reported that Cruz would beat Trump by 54% to 41% among Republican voters if those were the only two choices.

Trump has more popular votes than Cruz because the vote among people who don't want Trump has been split from the beginning. I don't get why you think Trump being the frontrunner demonstrates that as untrue. It's pretty obviously true.

And, look, I'm talking about Cruz because he's the only one left. As I said, I don't think he's the only one of the original candidates who would beat Trump among Republican voters if it was Trump vs. one other person. I think there are several.

You know Hen said I'm delusional but I think you guys are delusional if you can't see that there is a whole lot of opposition to the idea of Trump being the nominee within the Republican rank and file and that it is unusually intense. Why do you think there is a "Never Trump" movement? Was there a "Never Romney" movement? A "Never Bob Dole" movement? Why do you think it is that the nomination hasn't been decided at this point? Trump calls Romney a loser but Romney had the Republican nomination wrapped up at this point. McCain did too. A lot of Republicans just flat do not want Trump. Also it's not just that he's not their favorite...the candidate they'd most want. They REALLY don't want HIM in particular.

You can't say a lot of republicans don't want Trump when they aren't voting, coming out in droves in support of someone else. You keep harping on that point. You can cite polls all day but look at the actions of the voters. They aren't choosing Cruz. Or Kasich. They want Trump.


Those polls are words. The Votes are actions. Actions TRUMP words.





See what I did there??

[EWURanger]

NY loves them some Oligarchs.

[93henfan]

NY loves them some Oligarchs.

Here's an even better one:

[JohnStOnge]

You can't say a lot of republicans don't want Trump when they aren't voting, coming out in droves in support of someone else. You keep harping on that point. You can cite polls all day but look at the actions of the voters. They aren't choosing Cruz. Or Kasich. They want Trump.

Again, the overwhelming majority of them HAVE voted for someone else. It's just not ONE someone else. The idea situation would be if we had time to have runoff elections in primaries. You know, where you take the top two vote getters if nobody gets a majority and have a one on one between them. But we don't. And Trump has benefitted from that; especially when there are winner take all States.

I don't see how you can say "they want Trump" as though the popular vote has shown the the majority want Trump when he's gotten 37.9 percent of the vote. That is not indicative of a majority wanting Trump. If the majority had wanted Trump, Trump would have gotten the majority of the vote.

[JohnStOnge]

BTW the fact that we don't have, and won't have, an indication in the votes that the majority wants Trump going to convention is justification enough for allowing for the possibility of Trump losing at the convention. He probably won't because he's doing a "good" job of pre-emptively demagoguing the issue. But there would be nothing wrong with it.

There would be absolutely nothing wrong, especially, with the other candidates deciding which one will benefit then polling their votes...which would then be the majority...to pick a sensible candidate and thereby avoid destroying the Republican Party for decades by virtue of putting forth a nut job like Trump as the nominee.

This thing that Trump should be automatically declared the winner because he has a plurality going in is absurd. If he doesn't have a majority he doesn't have a majority. And if somebody else comes away from the convention with a majority that is perfectly fair.

[DSUrocks07]

You can't say a lot of republicans don't want Trump when they aren't voting, coming out in droves in support of someone else. You keep harping on that point. You can cite polls all day but look at the actions of the voters. They aren't choosing Cruz. Or Kasich. They want Trump.

Again, the overwhelming majority of them HAVE voted for someone else. It's just not ONE someone else. The idea situation would be if we had time to have runoff elections in primaries. You know, where you take the top two vote getters if nobody gets a majority and have a one on one between them. But we don't. And Trump has benefitted from that; especially when there are winner take all States.

I don't see how you can say "they want Trump" as though the popular vote has shown the the majority want Trump when he's gotten 37.9 percent of the vote. That is not indicative of a majority wanting Trump. If the majority had wanted Trump, Trump would have gotten the majority of the vote.

But the majority haven't wanted anybody else either.

Sounds a lot like Ivy's argument in support of the current two party system. Interesting coming from a "libertarian".

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

[93henfan]

As long as it's Kasich that emerged, I wouldn't mind. Trump or Kasich are OK with me. Anyone but Lyin' Ted.

[JohnStOnge]

As long as it's Kasich that emerged, I wouldn't mind. Trump or Kasich are OK with me. Anyone but Lyin' Ted.

Do you not realize that Trump lies with much greater frequency than Cruz does? Also, do you not realize that Trump has the emotional maturity and self control level of a child and you are talking about making him President of the Untied States?

Trump is lying right now, for instance, when he says that Cruz has been mathematically eliminated. The objective truth is that Cruz is not mathematically eliminated unless and until Trump has 1237 delegates obligated to vote for him on the first ballot.

Trump knows that. He is lying. And he lies all the time. ALL the time. He's WAY worse than Cruz and anybody else in the race for that matter when it comes to that.