Kalm is Calling the Election

[SDHornet]

If Gary makes it to the debates, he could get even more than that.

I agree, he could be a factor if he's able to get to the debates. But I see him being more of a Ross Perot factor - he'll get a decent number of votes but won't win a state. What would be interesting is who he takes more votes away from. Perot doomed Bush in that election as that's where he drew most of his support, but in this one I'm not sure if Johnson would consistently pull more support from one party or the other. Could vary state by state since people are just voting anti-status quo as opposed to anti any particular party.

Well if most Libertarians are as retarded as JSO, then clearly Johnson's inclusion hurts Trump.

[Ibanez]

Gabby Johnson is right!


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"He said the sheriff is near!"

I can't believe my parents allowed us to watch that movie when we were so young. I guess they figured we wouldn't pick up on some of the jokes


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[Ivytalk]

"He said the sheriff is near!"

I can't believe my parents allowed us to watch that movie when we were so young. I guess they figured we wouldn't pick up on some of the jokes


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I saw it in college. Still laugh my ass off every time I see it! Not sure you can buy the "original, uncut, Un-PC" version now.

[Ibanez]

I can't believe my parents allowed us to watch that movie when we were so young. I guess they figured we wouldn't pick up on some of the jokes


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I saw it in college. Still laugh my ass off every time I see it! Not sure you can buy the "original, uncut, Un-PC" version now.

You can.

"Man....they said you was hung!'

And they were right!!"

Lol. I didn't get that joke until high school


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[Ivytalk]

I agree, he could be a factor if he's able to get to the debates. But I see him being more of a Ross Perot factor - he'll get a decent number of votes but won't win a state. What would be interesting is who he takes more votes away from. Perot doomed Bush in that election as that's where he drew most of his support, but in this one I'm not sure if Johnson would consistently pull more support from one party or the other. Could vary state by state since people are just voting anti-status quo as opposed to anti any particular party.

Well if most Libertarians are as retarded as JSO, then clearly Johnson's inclusion hurts Trump.

Most Johnson voters won't be registered Libertarians. But he will draw more from Trump than from Hildabeast.

[kalm]

I saw it in college. Still laugh my ass off every time I see it! Not sure you can buy the "original, uncut, Un-PC" version now.

You can.

"Man....they said you was hung!'

And they were right!!"

Lol. I didn't get that joke until high school


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Kudos for you honoring the comedy classics. I'm afraid sometimes they're becoming lost with younger generations.

I named my business league team "The Knights Who Say Ni!" and I can't believe how many people don't know the reference...

[BDKJMU]

Here is the breakdown from the last election percent wise (wiki). Non conk/donk was 1.72% of the vote according to wiki:

Barack Obama 65,915,79/51.06%
Mitt Romney 60,933,500/47.20%

Libertarian: Gary Johnson, New Mexico/James P. Gray, California: 1,275,971/0.99%
Green: Jill Stein, Massachusetts/Cheri Honkala, Pennsylvania: 469,627/0.36%
Constitution: Virgil Goode, Virginia/Jim Clymer, Pennsylvania: 122,388/0.09%
Peace and Freedom: Roseanne Barr, Hawaii/Cindy Sheehan, California: 67,326/0.05%
Justice: Rocky Anderson, Utah/Luis J. Rodriguez, California: 43,018/0.03%
America's: Tom Hoefling, Iowa/Jonathan D. Ellis, Tennessee: 40,628/0.03%
Other: 217,148/0.17%

[BDKJMU]

Well if most Libertarians are as retarded as JSO, then clearly Johnson's inclusion hurts Trump.

Most Johnson voters won't be registered Libertarians. But he will draw more from Trump than from Hildabeast.

Agreed. I think by at least 2 to 1.

Now whoever the Greens run will draw almost exclusively from Hildacunt. It was Stein last time. Course Johnson got about 2.75x what Stein got (.99% to .36%).

I think there is a chance that what Johnson draws from Trump could be in the same ballpark as what the Greens draw from Hillary + whatever Johnson draws from Hillary

[Ivytalk]

Here is the breakdown from the last election percent wise (wiki). Non conk/donk was 1.72% of the vote according to wiki:

Barack Obama 65,915,79/51.06%
Mitt Romney 60,933,500/47.20%

Libertarian: Gary Johnson, New Mexico/James P. Gray, California: 1,275,971/0.99%
Green: Jill Stein, Massachusetts/Cheri Honkala, Pennsylvania: 469,627/0.36%
Constitution: Virgil Goode, Virginia/Jim Clymer, Pennsylvania: 122,388/0.09%
Peace and Freedom: Roseanne Barr, Hawaii/Cindy Sheehan, California: 67,326/0.05%
Justice: Rocky Anderson, Utah/Luis J. Rodriguez, California: 43,018/0.03%
America's: Tom Hoefling, Iowa/Jonathan D. Ellis, Tennessee: 40,628/0.03%
Other: 217,148/0.17%

[Ibanez]

You can.

"Man....they said you was hung!'

And they were right!!"

Lol. I didn't get that joke until high school


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Kudos for you honoring the comedy classics. I'm afraid sometimes they're becoming lost with younger generations.

I named my business league team "The Knights Who Say Ni!" and I can't believe how many people don't know the reference...

Those pathetic bastards.


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[JohnStOnge]

More on the poll trend thing. I think the Rasmussen general election polls released on May 19 and today illustrate the folly of looking at changes of five or 6 points here and five or six points there as showing that something is necessarily going on.

The poll released May 19 was taken May 17 and 18 and estimated Trump up by 5. The poll released today was taken May 23 and 24 and estimated Clinton up by 1. I just don't think there's any way things changed enough between May 18 and May 24 to cause a real change such that Clinton gained significantly since last week.

BTW I do expect Clinton to lose some ground at least in the short term because of the IG report. That wasn't captured in the Rasmussen poll released today as the IG report made the news yesterday, May 25.

[kalm]

It remains to be seen how serious it is, but here's more evidence of a rift within the Democratic Party from Yves Smith of the progressive Naked Capitalism. And it some of it is coming from women...

“If Clinton is the nominee 9 out of 10 friends I polled will [do one of three things]:
A. Not vote for president in November.
B. Vote for Trump.
C. Write in Bernie as a protest vote.
"We are all fifty-somethings with money and college educations. Oh, and we are all registered Democrats.”
Or as another reader puts it:
“I don’t want to vote for Trump. I want to vote for Bernie. But I have reached the point where I feel like voting for Trump against Clinton would be doing my patriotic duty. … If the only way to escape a trap is to gnaw off my leg, I’d like to think I’d have the guts to do it.”

To be sure, not all of my Sanders-supporting readers would vote for Trump. But only a minority would ever vote for Clinton, and I'd guess that a lot of them would just stay home if she were the nominee. Many of my readers tend to be very progressive, and they have been driven even further in that direction by their sophisticated understanding of the inequities of Wall Street, especially in the run-up to and the aftermath of the financial crisis, when no senior executives went to jail, the biggest banks got bigger, and Hillary paid homage to Goldman Sachs. True progressives, as opposed to the Vichy Left, recognize that the Clintons only helped these inequities along. They recognize that, both in the 1990s and now, the Clintons do not and have never represented them. They believe the most powerful move they can take to foster change is to withhold their support....

Who does Naked Capitalism represent? The site, which I describe as “fearless commentary on finance, economics, politics and power,” receives 1.3 million to 1.5 million page views a month and has amassed approximately 80 million readers since its launch in 2006. Its readership is disproportionately graduate school-educated, older, male and high income. Despite the overall predominance of male readers, many of the fiercest critics of Clinton in the commentariat are women....

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/ ... z4AiBrkNw2
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

[Skjellyfetti]

I'm not sure I get the rationale for writing in Bernie as a "protest vote" instead of voting for Jill Stein?