Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

[DSUrocks07]

I think Trump's team may have stepped in it with its first national ad. See leftist take on it at http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/t ... k-dacadapa. The Trump ad cites something called the "Center for Immigration Studies," which is tabbed as a right wing hate group by the leftist groups that label such things. You can see that on pages like http://www.pfaw.org/rww-in-focus/anti-i ... #thinktank and https://www.splcenter.org/20090201/nati ... ntolerance. The head of the Center for Immigration Studies has a history of being involved in the eugenics movement.

Not a good move. Now the Democrats are going to be able to say Trump's campaign ad cites a racist group run by a guy who promotes eugenics and "...who operates a racist publishing company and has written that to maintain American culture, 'a European-American majority' is required."

That sort of thing.

Of course I'm happy about it. Even while the news has been full of reports of Trump trying to tone it down it's clear that his campaign is still screwing up. Like kicking an ethnic minority teen who went to a Trump rally yesterday to support Trump out and who now is making the TV news circuit.

http://reason.com/blog/2016/08/19/trump ... kicked-out

Anantha says he stood outside the Convention Center watching a stream of white people enter.

"I thought (Trump) was for all people. I don't believe he is for all people anymore," he said. "Why are all these white people allowed to attend and I'm not?"

So because of ONE experience this idiot is jumping ship to Clinton? (EDIT: Johnson, alledgedly) When has she EVER been "for everyone"?

And now he wants to make the rounds to media outlets to "tell his story", I guess the Khan Train ran out of steam after the holes in his story were blown wide open and the left needed another minority to parade around about how "racist" Trump is.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

[Ibanez]

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/m ... synonymous

Sometimes in this business of media analysis, you just have to shake your head in disbelief.

Today's "WTF" moment comes courtesy of the following CNN Politics headline:

Trump wants GOP to court black voters — then slams voting rights for felons

You read that one right.

[SDHornet]

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/m ... synonymous

Sometimes in this business of media analysis, you just have to shake your head in disbelief.

Today's "WTF" moment comes courtesy of the following CNN Politics headline:

Trump wants GOP to court black voters — then slams voting rights for felons

You read that one right.

This is why hilldog just calls them "super predators". Makes everything more simple, you know because she isn't sophisticated enough to know the difference.

[Ibanez]

In Pennsylvania — where Democrats’ registration advantage has fallen by a fifth since the 2012 election, to 915,000 voters — more than 85,000 former Democrats have become Republicans this year, almost three times the number of voters who made the opposite switch.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/t ... z4I4uANADi
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

Groups that register voters under nonprofit auspices are forbidden from pushing one party or another, but in Arizona, where the state Democratic Party has a goal of registering 100,000 voters, party field staffers have found the right way to frame the choice for new voters unsure whether to become Democrats or Republicans. The volunteers ask the new voters whether they tend to agree more with a local Democratic lawmaker — Rep. Raúl Grijalva in Tucson, Reps. Kyrsten Sinema or Ruben Gallego in Tempe — or with Donald Trump. "More often than not, we register Democrats with that line," said a person involved with the registration drive.

[DSUrocks07]

In Pennsylvania — where Democrats’ registration advantage has fallen by a fifth since the 2012 election, to 915,000 voters — more than 85,000 former Democrats have become Republicans this year, almost three times the number of voters who made the opposite switch.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/t ... z4I4uANADi
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

Groups that register voters under nonprofit auspices are forbidden from pushing one party or another, but in Arizona, where the state Democratic Party has a goal of registering 100,000 voters, party field staffers have found the right way to frame the choice for new voters unsure whether to become Democrats or Republicans. The volunteers ask the new voters whether they tend to agree more with a local Democratic lawmaker — Rep. Raúl Grijalva in Tucson, Reps. Kyrsten Sinema or Ruben Gallego in Tempe — or with Donald Trump. "More often than not, we register Democrats with that line," said a person involved with the registration drive.

Clearly Republicans should just stay home on election day, because the media has already crowned Queen Hillary for the presidency.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

[CID1990]

National polls are meaningless.

The polls that have pretty well correctly shown what was going to happen in the general was the state polls. Currently, those show even more of a bloodbath than the national ones do. Hillary's campaign is correctly moving on to agenda and cabinet because this election is already over.

Good point. But at least on RCP, the state polls tend to lag behind the national polls with updates. What are the recent swing state polls showing and how recent are they?

Not necessarily- in 2012 the national polls showed a tight race, well within the MOE and some showed Romney ahead.

The state polls showed Obama in a walkover and thats what happened- the states went pretty much the way the local polling said they would.

Trump is going down bad.

I wish that reality would set in on him soon and then maybe there would be a chance he would just drop out in a petulant fit.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[kalm]

Good point. But at least on RCP, the state polls tend to lag behind the national polls with updates. What are the recent swing state polls showing and how recent are they?

Not necessarily- in 2012 the national polls showed a tight race, well within the MOE and some showed Romney ahead.

The state polls showed Obama in a walkover and thats what happened- the states went pretty much the way the local polling said they would.

Trump is going down bad.

I wish that reality would set in on him soon and then maybe there would be a chance he would just drop out in a petulant fit.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I get that. My point is if you look at RCP you wouldn't necessarily see a changing trend in the state polls as many of them are from a few weeks ago.

[JohnStOnge]

You can figure it out.

Well, I defer to you as the vice chair of the CS.com chapter of the Klinton Kampaign (chair: dbackjon).

Ok then:

Yes. The Democrats can make some hay out of Trump hiring the Breitbart.com guy as campaign CEO. Talk about a target rich environment if what they're interested in is ginning up their base and making Trump's campaign look like a tin hat operation. It's happening already and I'll be surprised if the emphasis doesn't increase.

http://mediamatters.org/blog/2016/08/17 ... ite/212456

The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) reported in April that Breitbart has recently “undergone a noticeable shift toward embracing ideas on the extremist fringe of the conservative right. Racist ideas. Race-baiting ideas. Anti-Muslim and anti-Immigrant ideas -- all key tenets making up an emerging racist ideology known as the ‘Alt-Right.’” The SPLC noted that “Over the past year the media outlet has been openly promoting the core issues of the Alt-Right, introducing these racist ideas to its readership -- much to the delight of many in the white nationalist world who could never dream of reaching such a vast number of people” and pointed out that the site has been “publishing more overtly racist diatribes about Muslims and immigrants” since 2015.

So now Trump is out trying to bullshit Blacks and Hispanics when he just hired the head of Breitbart.com. Again: You can figure out what the Democrats are thinking unless they are complete morons. And I don't think they are. To me they've shown for a number of years now that they're better at the political game than the Republicans are.

[houndawg]

BTW I hadn't commented on the hiring of the Breitbart.com guy. Or if I did I don't recall it. But it's another example of how tone deaf Trump is. Here is some content from Breitbart.com:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government ... -heritage/

Now, I actually like the Confederate Flag and think it does reflect a proud heritage. But is associating himself with the Brietbart.com guy a smart move on the part of this supposed GREAT manager Trump? Think maybe the Democrats can make some hay out of that?

Thats the standard racist apology.

[Gil Dobie]

The news media really attacked Ryan Lochte for lying, but really let the politicians slide with bigger and more damaging lies.

[BDKJMU]

Not necessarily- in 2012 the national polls showed a tight race, well within the MOE and some showed Romney ahead.

The state polls showed Obama in a walkover and thats what happened- the states went pretty much the way the local polling said they would.

Trump is going down bad.

I wish that reality would set in on him soon and then maybe there would be a chance he would just drop out in a petulant fit.

Based on what? The swing state polls? The latest swing state polls range from early July to mid Aug. That is way too far out. Polls taken 3-4 months before an election, and which aren't being taken with that much frequency compared to what they will be in the fall, don't mean much. Current RCP swing state poll averages.
OH 7/30-8/21: Clinton +4.8
FL 7/30-8/15: Clinton +4.5
PA 7/25-8/7: Clinton +9.2
MI 7/7-8/10 Clinton +7.3
VA 8/2-8/17 Clinton +12.8
NC 7/31-8/7 Clinton +1.8

The polls taken after the 1st debate in late Sept, which won't even be out till early Oct, and which could have major swings in them, will mean a lot more. We haven't even entered the fall campaign season yet, and A LOT can happen in the next 2 1/2 months.

If in late Oct/early Nov Clinton is still way up in most of the swing state polls, then I would agree Trump would be going down bad..

[Skjellyfetti]

The news media really attacked Ryan Lochte for lying, but really let the politicians slide with bigger and more damaging lies.

If the media sets up a factchecking organization - it is just dismissed as liberal propaganda (see: politifact).

[Skjellyfetti]

Based on what? The swing state polls?

The electoral map + swing state polls.

Current RCP swing state poll averages.
OH 7/30-8/21: Clinton +4.8
FL 7/30-8/15: Clinton +4.5
PA 7/25-8/7: Clinton +9.2
MI 7/7-8/10 Clinton +7.3
VA 8/2-8/17 Clinton +12.8
NC 7/31-8/7 Clinton +1.8

Hillary has a lot of room for shitting the bed. Trump has very little room for shitting the bed.

And, Clinton is in the lead in all of the states you posted.

Virginia +12.8 for Clinton and PA +9.2 for Clinton means that Trump is toast barring a huge swing in the polls.

Yes, I know you are holding out hope for that huge swing in the polls. But, the odds ain't looking good, BDK.

[BDKJMU]

Based on what? The swing state polls?

The electoral map + swing state polls.

Current RCP swing state poll averages.
OH 7/30-8/21: Clinton +4.8
FL 7/30-8/15: Clinton +4.5
PA 7/25-8/7: Clinton +9.2
MI 7/7-8/10 Clinton +7.3
VA 8/2-8/17 Clinton +12.8
NC 7/31-8/7 Clinton +1.8

Hillary has a lot of room for shitting the bed. Trump has very little room for shitting the bed.

And, Clinton is in the lead in all of the states you posted.

Virginia +12.8 for Clinton and PA +9.2 for Clinton means that Trump is toast barring a huge swing in the polls.

Yes, I know you are holding out hope for that huge swing in the polls. But, the odds ain't looking good, BDK.

Eh, those are the 2 worst of the swing states in polls for Trump in polls ranging from late July to mid Aug, around the height of the DNC bounce and Trump being beat up over the Khan thing.. They likely have already swung back towards Trump some. And that's not that huge of a swing. You go +5 points for one candidate/-5 points for the other it can be a 10 point swing.

Weren't you the one on here years ago that polls that were far out from an election didn't matter?

[Gil Dobie]

The news media really attacked Ryan Lochte for lying, but really let the politicians slide with bigger and more damaging lies.

If the media sets up a factchecking organization - it is just dismissed as liberal propaganda (see: politifact).

It's not just the liberal media and politicians that lie. You have to be an Olympic swimmer to get called on the lie.

[GannonFan]

If the media sets up a factchecking organization - it is just dismissed as liberal propaganda (see: politifact).

It's not just the liberal media and politicians that lie. You have to be an Olympic swimmer to get called on the lie.

Everyone has a different definition and impression of getting called on a lie. The feminist friends I have on Facebook are convinced that Lochte got off scott free and that people were even saying "boys will be boys" in their excusal of him (they appear to be short on who said that, but they're sure it existed even if they didn't see it). They seem to miss the headlines that ripped the guy early on in the story, and the dropping of this guy by as many sponsors as possible. But why let that get in the way of a good outrage.

[Pwns]

The news media really attacked Ryan Lochte for lying, but really let the politicians slide with bigger and more damaging lies.

If the media sets up a factchecking organization - it is just dismissed as liberal propaganda (see: politifact).

Paul Krugman pitched a fit when politifact correctly pointed out it was a lie that Republicans voted to end medicare.

Some left wing blogs weren't happy Obama got the lie of the year for "if you like your health care plan you can keep it" thing.

[CAA Flagship]

It's not just the liberal media and politicians that lie. You have to be an Olympic swimmer to get called on the lie.

Everyone has a different definition and impression of getting called on a lie. The feminist friends I have on Facebook are convinced that Lochte got off scott free and that people were even saying "boys will be boys" in their excusal of him (they appear to be short on who said that, but they're sure it existed even if they didn't see it). They seem to miss the headlines that ripped the guy early on in the story, and the dropping of this guy by as many sponsors as possible. But why let that get in the way of a good outrage.

OK. That right there freaked me the fuck out.

[GannonFan]

Everyone has a different definition and impression of getting called on a lie. The feminist friends I have on Facebook are convinced that Lochte got off scott free and that people were even saying "boys will be boys" in their excusal of him (they appear to be short on who said that, but they're sure it existed even if they didn't see it). They seem to miss the headlines that ripped the guy early on in the story, and the dropping of this guy by as many sponsors as possible. But why let that get in the way of a good outrage.

OK. That right there freaked me the **** out.

She's a gender studies professor (full doctor now) at a state school here in PA. She's the one from whom I found out there are really 5 different genders (not that I could explain it). I sense a lot of it is bunk, but being white and male I have many privileges to check before I could even say anything like that. I sense that's the way it's set up on purpose.

[Skjellyfetti]

Weren't you the one on here years ago that polls that were far out from an election didn't matter?

Pretty sure I've just said that polls become more accurate the closer you get to the election.

I think the leader in the polls in late August has won every general election in the last 50+ years (perhaps excluding 2000).

[JohnStOnge]

I don't think there's any question that if the election were held tomorrow Clinton would win in a landslide. The problem for Clinton is that we don't know what's going to come out in all the e mail and hacking stuff.

The sad thing is that we have an enemy of the United States, Russia, that clearly wants Trump to win. And we don't know exactly what the enemy of the United States has to put forth in an effort to get what it wants.

[Skjellyfetti]

And, BDK...

these should be swing states. They're states that are leaning blue but a Republican would hope to put in play.

But, Trump is taking it up the ass in polls there... and his campaign knows it (they do believe polling) and they're pulling out of events there.

Nevada, Oregon, and Colorado:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/poli ... /89122820/

[YoUDeeMan]

I don't think there's any question that if the election were held tomorrow Clinton would win in a landslide. The problem for Clinton is that we don't know what's going to come out in all the e mail and hacking stuff.

The sad thing is that we have an enemy of the United States, Russia, that clearly wants Trump to win. And we don't know exactly what the enemy of the United States has to put forth in an effort to get what it wants.

JSO: Drama queen with queer thinking.

We have lots of enemies of the United States that are supporting Clinton. We have LOTS of murdering psychopath, minority and majority oppressing Muslin country leaders that are supporting Clinton to the tune of mucho-millions of dollars.

In the end, Russia is less of a threat, and more of an ally, then any backwards Muslin Middle Eastern country. You know that...Islam is more of a threat than Russia.

[JohnStOnge]

JSO: Drama queen with queer thinking.

We have lots of enemies of the United States that are supporting Clinton. We have LOTS of murdering psychopath, minority and majority oppressing Muslin country leaders that are supporting Clinton to the tune of mucho-millions of dollars.

In the end, Russia is less of a threat, and more of an ally, then any backwards Muslin Middle Eastern country. You know that...Islam is more of a threat than Russia.

Ok. Like who? Like who is doing things like hacking the Republican web sites and/or e mail accounts and/or hacking Trump web sites and /or e mail accounts looking for stuff they can throw out to try to influence the election in favor of Clinton?

And BTW it's ridiculous to say that Russia is less of a threat than ANYBODY else. Russia has a well developed nuclear arsenal. WAY more well developed than anybody other than the United States.

[houndawg]

JSO: Drama queen with queer thinking.

We have lots of enemies of the United States that are supporting Clinton. We have LOTS of murdering psychopath, minority and majority oppressing Muslin country leaders that are supporting Clinton to the tune of mucho-millions of dollars.

In the end, Russia is less of a threat, and more of an ally, then any backwards Muslin Middle Eastern country. You know that...Islam is more of a threat than Russia.

Ok. Like who? Like who is doing things like hacking the Republican web sites and/or e mail accounts and/or hacking Trump web sites and /or e mail accounts looking for stuff they can throw out to try to influence the election in favor of Clinton?

And BTW it's ridiculous to say that Russia is less of a threat than ANYBODY else. Russia has a well developed nuclear arsenal. WAY more well developed than anybody other than the United States.

Ever the drama queen...


Trump will teach Putin just who is the superpower and who is the third world country with rockets.