It's not guns. It's Blacks and poor people.

[JohnStOnge]

As far as state by state homicide rates go, anyway. The end of the story is that when I looked at gun ownership rates, race, and poverty there's not a "significant" association involving gun ownership rates but there are "significant" associations involving race and poverty.

I saw a thing on TV about how there's a state by state correlation between gun ownership rates and gun related deaths. I don't agree with doing it that way because part of the question is whether people would just find other ways to do bad things if there are fewer guns. I think one should use something like homicide rates.

So anyway I had time on my hands today and decided to just analyze some data just like I would analyze environmental data per my job. I got 2016 homicide rates from CDC. I got state by state gun ownership rates at https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/gun-ow ... -state/51/. I got race and poverty rates data at the Census site. The years don't exactly match but I think the data should still reasonably correspond. Don't think, for example, the State by State gun ownership rates should've changed must between 2015 and 2016.

Anyway, I started off just wanting to look at race so I looked at both % Black population and % non HIspanic White population. One is just looking at Blacks and one is basically a reverse way of looking at everybody except non Hispanic whites. Here are the correlation coefficients for state by state homicide rates vs. each variable I looked at:



The way it works is that the higher the absolute value the stronger the evidence for correlation. As you can see the positive correlation for % Black, about 0.726, has a higher absolute value than the negative correlation for % White. So I picked % Black to represent race.

First off, in order for a correlation in this set to be "significant" by convention, the absolute value would have to be [>0.279. So right off the bat there's not sufficient evidence to say there's a correlation between gun ownership rates and homicide rates. But I went ahead and did the same kind of multivariable modeling I do in my job to see what would happen if I tried looking at gun ownership rates while taking race and poverty into account. You know, see if I could tease out a gun ownership rate effect.

Nope. To make a long story short...or at least a long part of this long story short...the model I ended up with says that if you want to try to "predict" homicide rates of states you would use % Black population and poverty rate. Gun ownership rates wouldn't factor in at all.

[93henfan]

So you're saying Vermont has no street cred?

[Ivytalk]

When JSO says he has “time on his hands,” run in the opposite direction!

[JohnStOnge]

When JSO says he has “time on his hands,” run in the opposite direction!

The society would be better off if more people actually tried to inform themselves by looking at available data instead of just going with what media and/or academia tell them. I like to do statistics but anybody could just look at the data I cited and see that gun ownership rate is not the issue. For example: The State with the highest gun ownership rate estimate in the thing on that I cited is Alaska (61.7%) and the State with the lowest gun ownership rate is Delaware (5.2%). But the two states have about the same homicide rate (7.0 for Delaware and 7.3 for Alaska).

But if you do that kind of thing with %Black or % in Poverty you get a different picture. The State with the highest %Black population (37.1%) as well as the highest percent in poverty (20.8%) is Mississippi. Mississippi has a 12.1 homicide rate. The State with the lowest percent Black population, Montana (0.6%), has a 4.3 homicide rate. And the State that has the lowest poverty rate, New Hampshire (7.3%), has a homicide rate that is so low that it's reported as 0.

BTW Montana has that low homicide rate in spite of being 6th in gun ownership at 52.3%.

That kind of stuff pretty much jumps out at you if you line the data up and just look at them. It's obvious that if you were looking at trying to reduce homicide rates and were looking at those three factors you'd throw gun ownership rate out and just focus on trying to solve the problems of the Black community and lowering the poverty rate. Flipping Wyoming is another State that has such a low homicide rate it's reported as 0 yet it's 5th in gun ownership rate at 53.8%. But only 1.3% of its population is Black and it's 13.3% poverty rate is slightly below the 13.5% national average.

[AZGrizFan]

Why would ANYBODY in the anti gun agenda want to actually look at statistics for themselves? Statistics have zero bearing on their position....their position is 100% emotional and 0% rational...stats don’t mean squat to those people.

[Chizzang]

Why would ANYBODY in the anti gun agenda want to actually look at statistics for themselves? Statistics have zero bearing on their position....their position is 100% emotional and 0% rational...stats don’t mean squat to those people.

I'm of a mixed opinion on this one...
Wouldn't it be great if we could actually do some gun research in this country
But first you have to ask yourself "Why haven't we done any gun research"

and the answer is not because the crazy emotional Liberals have stopped it
It's because the fact based even tempered Conservatives have stopped it

There's way (way) too much money in guns and the gun lobby for them to want ANY legitimate
Properly funded honest research...

Why..?
You'd think the NRA would be racing to have a proper gun study if the data was so good

[GannonFan]

Why would ANYBODY in the anti gun agenda want to actually look at statistics for themselves? Statistics have zero bearing on their position....their position is 100% emotional and 0% rational...stats don’t mean squat to those people.

I'm of a mixed opinion on this one...
Wouldn't it be great if we could actually do some gun research in this country
But first you have to ask yourself "Why haven't we done any gun research"

and the answer is not because the crazy emotional Liberals have stopped it
It's because the fact based even tempered Conservatives have stopped it

There's way (way) too much money in guns and the gun lobby for them to want ANY legitimate
Properly funded honest research...

Why..?
You'd think the NRA would be racing to have a proper gun study if the data was so good

Again, what has been stopped? We know tons about guns. You're only talking about the CDC being stopped to research gun violence as an epidemic. Who's arguing that we don't already know that? There are literally thousands of studies of gun violence in America. We don't have the amount of gun violence in America simply because some politicians get in the way of the CDC studying it.

[AZGrizFan]

Why would ANYBODY in the anti gun agenda want to actually look at statistics for themselves? Statistics have zero bearing on their position....their position is 100% emotional and 0% rational...stats don’t mean squat to those people.

I'm of a mixed opinion on this one...
Wouldn't it be great if we could actually do some gun research in this country
But first you have to ask yourself "Why haven't we done any gun research"

and the answer is not because the Liberals have stopped it
It's because the Conservatives have stopped it

There's way (way) too much money in guns and the gun lobby for them to want ANY legitimate
Properly funded honest research...

Why..?
You'd think the NRA would be racing to have a proper gun study if the data was so good

Boys have been around since God created Adam.
Schools have been around for thousands and thousands of years
Guns have been around for over 400 years
Guns IN schools have been around for at least 50+ years (I used to take my rifle to school all the time during hunting season. many many rifles were in rifle racks in the student parking lot)...and there are many on this board who used to do the same thing—even brought rifles into school to show teachers/principals, etc.

Yet combining boys/guns/schools into mass school shootings is a relatively new phenomon. Any study (if its worth a shit) would conclude that the issue isn’t GUNS, it’s one of or a combination of the following:

* Bullying
* Kids inability/lack of coping mechanism because of lack of parenting/learning life skills
* parents turning over the raising of their kids to schools
* Lack of a two parent home (most shooters raised by mothers only) - Credit to GF for this one
* societal impact of “everybody gets a trophy” generation when the realization hits that in reality not everyone DOES get one
* Demonizing of corporal punishment used as discipline (making it a crime, essentially) by liberals
* Psychotropic drug use/abuse/overpersciption and their negative side effects
* Violent video games/desensitizing of death
* Technology and the “disconnectedness” of society/kids in general

If there IS one thing gun-related that it can be blamed on, it’s the fact that guns are now viewed/looked at as evil instead of something to be taught to handle/appreciate/respect etc., etc.

[Skjellyfetti]

You touched on it in the last bullet - but, I think social media has a big role to play. Much more so than violent video games or parents not spanking their kids.

[AZGrizFan]

You touched on it in the last bullet - but, I think social media has a big role to play. Much more so than violent video games or parents not spanking their kids.

Read something yesterday that said that every school shooter but one in the past 3-4 years has been on some sort of presciption psychotropic drug also. That might be a connector....

[GannonFan]

You touched on it in the last bullet - but, I think social media has a big role to play. Much more so than violent video games or parents not spanking their kids.

It's all of the above, and if anything is bigger than another reason it's not by a lot. Our culture is so coarse these days, and for some reason America is worse off than other nations (like how other nations can exist without Glass-Steagall-like protection, but we repeal it here and our banking system tanks as a result - only in America). Heck, when our political system can produce Trump as not only a candidate but as the actual President, you have to wonder. Things are off the rail, and I'm not sure what the rail even is anymore. Modern culture, at this point, is certainly to blame.

[GannonFan]

You touched on it in the last bullet - but, I think social media has a big role to play. Much more so than violent video games or parents not spanking their kids.

Read something yesterday that said that every school shooter but one in the past 3-4 years has been on some sort of presciption psychotropic drug also. That might be a connector....

And most of the young shooters grew up in broken homes or fatherless homes.

[AZGrizFan]

Read something yesterday that said that every school shooter but one in the past 3-4 years has been on some sort of presciption psychotropic drug also. That might be a connector....

And most of the young shooters grew up in broken homes or fatherless homes.

Forgot that one. In fact, I’m gonna go back and add it.

[Pwns]

Read something yesterday that said that every school shooter but one in the past 3-4 years has been on some sort of presciption psychotropic drug also. That might be a connector....

And most of the young shooters grew up in broken homes or fatherless homes.

Ding-ding-ding-ding-ding-ding-ding!!

I think I remember reading somewhere that when you compare black and white men according to whether they were raised by single moms the difference in crime rates disappears.

But of course, it's sexist and racist and probably at least a few other -ists to even begin to talk about this.

And in case anyone didn't read JSO's entire post, basically, having more blacks is a better predictors of gun violence than having more poor people.

[JohnStOnge]

OH CRAP!

I FOUND a gun ownership rate effect. Should've done this before I said anything. I could not stand the fact that I used data from different years. So I put some effort into it. I went the the original gun ownership data and it is from a 2013 survey. So I found a CDC report that had homicide rates by State for 2013 in it. Then I found a Census Bureau report that had 2013 poverty rates by State. Finally I found report where they cited Census Bureau data and had %Black population by State for 2013. So I had all the data from the same year.

At first I thought everything looked the same. The correlation involving gun ownership actually went DOWN and the one involving poverty rate went UP. But then when I considered each variable while "controlling" for the other two gun ownership rate was "significant." I COULD cheat and change the rules I normally use because it is REALLY borderline with gun ownership rate while it's absolutely no doubt with the other two. But I won't. I started off wanting to stick to doing it just like I would do it when I look at environmental variables.

So NOW I have to say that, while there is NOT a straight significant correlation between gun ownership rate and state by state homicide rate, sufficient evidence to conclude that homicide rate goes up as gun ownership rate goes up if you "control" for %Black population and poverty rate.

Also a lesson in the need to take the trouble to quality control the data you use. It can make a difference.

[Chizzang]

I'm of a mixed opinion on this one...
Wouldn't it be great if we could actually do some gun research in this country
But first you have to ask yourself "Why haven't we done any gun research"

and the answer is not because the crazy emotional Liberals have stopped it
It's because the fact based even tempered Conservatives have stopped it

There's way (way) too much money in guns and the gun lobby for them to want ANY legitimate
Properly funded honest research...

Why..?
You'd think the NRA would be racing to have a proper gun study if the data was so good

Again, what has been stopped? We know tons about guns. You're only talking about the CDC being stopped to research gun violence as an epidemic. Who's arguing that we don't already know that? There are literally thousands of studies of gun violence in America. We don't have the amount of gun violence in America simply because some politicians get in the way of the CDC studying it.

Indeed,
But I've got 2 words for you... Climate Change

Every single study is basically refuted out of hand as rubbish or denied
We've got a situation here just like Climate Change where nobody wants to hear the truth on either side

Even people simply interested in the truth with no opinion
Are stunned to find so many walls erected and basic information refuted



We've all made lovely anecdotal points - particularly AZ - he's waxed on rather eloquently (I'm impressed)
but it's all just so much bullsh!t without unification of data and organized controlled studies

[AZGrizFan]

Again, what has been stopped? We know tons about guns. You're only talking about the CDC being stopped to research gun violence as an epidemic. Who's arguing that we don't already know that? There are literally thousands of studies of gun violence in America. We don't have the amount of gun violence in America simply because some politicians get in the way of the CDC studying it.

Indeed,
But I've got 2 words for you... Climate Change

Every single study is basically refuted out of hand as rubbish or denied
We've got a situation here just like Climate Change where nobody wants to hear the truth on either side

Even people simply interested in the truth with no opinion
Are stunned to find so many walls erected and basic information refuted



We've all made lovely anecdotal points - particularly AZ - he's waxed on rather eloquently (I'm impressed)
but it's all just so much bullsh!t without unification of data and organized controlled studies

It’s not anecdotal data, dipshit. It’s reasons—OTHER THAN THE EVIL AR-15—that these things happen now when they didn’t happen for the first 450 years of guns being on this planet. What changed? Hint: It wasn’t the invention of the AR-15. Yet it’s the AR-15 that’s vilified and none of the other more logical causes (or combination of causes).

[Chizzang]

Indeed,
But I've got 2 words for you... Climate Change

Every single study is basically refuted out of hand as rubbish or denied
We've got a situation here just like Climate Change where nobody wants to hear the truth on either side

Even people simply interested in the truth with no opinion
Are stunned to find so many walls erected and basic information refuted



We've all made lovely anecdotal points - particularly AZ - he's waxed on rather eloquently (I'm impressed)
but it's all just so much bullsh!t without unification of data and organized controlled studies

It’s not anecdotal data, dipshit. It’s reasons—OTHER THAN THE EVIL AR-15—that these things happen now when they didn’t happen for the first 450 years of guns being on this planet. What changed? Hint: It wasn’t the invention of the AR-15. Yet it’s the AR-15 that’s vilified and none of the other more logical causes (or combination of causes).

I thought the Liberals were all "overly emotional"...
You seem annoyed at my playing the middle against both sides maneuverings

Climate Change...
Who needs experts - it snowed yesterday - therefore Chines Conspiracy
Anecdotal is now so Presidential

[AZGrizFan]

It’s not anecdotal data, dipshit. It’s reasons—OTHER THAN THE EVIL AR-15—that these things happen now when they didn’t happen for the first 450 years of guns being on this planet. What changed? Hint: It wasn’t the invention of the AR-15. Yet it’s the AR-15 that’s vilified and none of the other more logical causes (or combination of causes).

I thought the Liberals were all "overly emotional"...
You seem annoyed at my playing the middle against both sides maneuverings

Climate Change...
Who needs experts - it snowed yesterday - therefore Chines Conspiracy
Anecdotal is now so Presidential

Is it really all bullshit? are you really paralyzed into inactivity without “unification of data and controlled studies”? It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the root cause(s)... but the inaction IS definitely political...mostly because we’ve become a country where if any individual group perceives their rights as being trampled on they scream and bitch and moan and get whatever they want until the issue bends back to their favor...whether its the mental health arena, the NRA, teachers, big pharma, etc., etc.,etc...nobody wants to be the boogey man or admit they may play a part (you’re a lawyer, you can figure out why) in the behavior that has emerged in the past 30 years.

[Ivytalk]

I thought the Liberals were all "overly emotional"...
You seem annoyed at my playing the middle against both sides maneuverings

Climate Change...
Who needs experts - it snowed yesterday - therefore Chines Conspiracy
Anecdotal is now so Presidential

Is it really all bullshit? are you really paralyzed into inactivity without “unification of data and controlled studies”? It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the root cause(s)... but the inaction IS definitely political...mostly because we’ve become a country where if any individual group perceives their rights as being trampled on they scream and bitch and moan and get whatever they want until the issue bends back to their favor...whether its the mental health arena, the NRA, teachers, big pharma, etc., etc.,etc...nobody wants to be the boogey man or admit they may play a part (you’re a lawyer, you can figure out why) in the behavior that has emerged in the past 30 years.

Chizzang is any number of things on here— often, many incompatible things at once— but he ain’t no lawyer. He hates lawyers, by his own admission. He’s a technocratic metrosexual sybarite. You’re welcome.

[kalm]

I thought the Liberals were all "overly emotional"...
You seem annoyed at my playing the middle against both sides maneuverings

Climate Change...
Who needs experts - it snowed yesterday - therefore Chines Conspiracy
Anecdotal is now so Presidential

Is it really all bullshit? are you really paralyzed into inactivity without “unification of data and controlled studies”? It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the root cause(s)... but the inaction IS definitely political...mostly because we’ve become a country where if any individual group perceives their rights as being trampled on they scream and bitch and moan and get whatever they want until the issue bends back to their favor...whether its the mental health arena, the NRA, teachers, big pharma, etc., etc.,etc...nobody wants to be the boogey man or admit they may play a part (you’re a lawyer, you can figure out why) in the behavior that has emerged in the past 30 years.

This is a good post although I think the unification of data thing is a good point.

We have chosen as a society with an assist from our corrupt political process that the innocent lives lost every year are worth the protection of the 2nd amendment as it’s interpreted by gun owners. For right or wrong and I appreciate the fears of a tyrannical government.

That can change and probably will based on the next generation.

In the long run, the NRA will help speed the demise of gun rights.

[AZGrizFan]

Is it really all bullshit? are you really paralyzed into inactivity without “unification of data and controlled studies”? It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the root cause(s)... but the inaction IS definitely political...mostly because we’ve become a country where if any individual group perceives their rights as being trampled on they scream and bitch and moan and get whatever they want until the issue bends back to their favor...whether its the mental health arena, the NRA, teachers, big pharma, etc., etc.,etc...nobody wants to be the boogey man or admit they may play a part (you’re a lawyer, you can figure out why) in the behavior that has emerged in the past 30 years.

Chizzang is any number of things on here— often, many incompatible things at once— but he ain’t no lawyer. He hates lawyers, by his own admission. He’s a technocratic metrosexual sybarite. You’re welcome.

Lol...not sure why I said that...I’ve met him many times...guess I figured all you Harvaaad grads are the same...

[AZGrizFan]

Is it really all bullshit? are you really paralyzed into inactivity without “unification of data and controlled studies”? It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the root cause(s)... but the inaction IS definitely political...mostly because we’ve become a country where if any individual group perceives their rights as being trampled on they scream and bitch and moan and get whatever they want until the issue bends back to their favor...whether its the mental health arena, the NRA, teachers, big pharma, etc., etc.,etc...nobody wants to be the boogey man or admit they may play a part (you’re a lawyer, you can figure out why) in the behavior that has emerged in the past 30 years.

This is a good post although I think the unification of data thing is a good point.

We have chosen as a society with an assist from our corrupt political process that the innocent lives lost every year are worth the protection of the 2nd amendment as it’s interpreted by gun owners. For right or wrong and I appreciate the fears of a tyrannical government.

That can change and probably will based on the next generation.

In the long run, the NRA will help speed the demise of gun rights.

We have also chosen as a society that the innocent lives lost every year are worth the protection of big pharma/sliding mental health services/poor parenting/godless society etc., etc., etc....because the 2nd amendment is a very, very small cog in this wheel....but it’s the front and center easy target to let all the other REAL reasons slide by unaffected.

[kalm]

This is a good post although I think the unification of data thing is a good point.

We have chosen as a society with an assist from our corrupt political process that the innocent lives lost every year are worth the protection of the 2nd amendment as it’s interpreted by gun owners. For right or wrong and I appreciate the fears of a tyrannical government.

That can change and probably will based on the next generation.

In the long run, the NRA will help speed the demise of gun rights.

We have also chosen as a society that the innocent lives lost every year are worth the protection of big pharma/sliding mental health services/poor parenting/godless society etc., etc., etc....because the 2nd amendment is a very, very small cog in this wheel....but it’s the front and center easy target to let all the other REAL reasons slide by unaffected.

I can see you like this psycheutropic drug angle and it might have validity. How many lives were saved because a chemically unbalanced brain was balanced through meds? Not dismissing the roll of drugs but isn’t there some upside too?

[Chizzang]

Chizzang is any number of things on here— often, many incompatible things at once— but he ain’t no lawyer. He hates lawyers, by his own admission. He’s a technocratic metrosexual sybarite. You’re welcome.

Lol...not sure why I said that...I’ve met him many times...guess I figured all you Harvaaad grads are the same...

True
I have a distaste for our cultural fondness of litigation (period)
add to that our tendency towards cumbersome legalese as a replacement for common sense
and you have America Today - a slowly declining circle jerk of lawyer-on-lawyer action sinking into the abyss

as our final gesture we elect a president that is the very definition of "frivolous legal action"
appearing in over 3,500 suits...

Lawyers... What's to like..?