The Democratic Party...

[JohnStOnge]

Oh, NOW you’re going to believe exit polls? They were wrong about everything else, but somehow right about this? Trust me, there are LOTS of “team Brown” that may not want to admit to voting for Trump, but they did. And there’s lots who may not want to admit supporting him, but they DO.

I assure you, political professionals believe exit polls. What do you think they were wrong about? They are implemented for the purpose of looking at the demographics of voting and to get an idea as to what was important to people. You have absolutely no evidence that there are "...LOTS of 'team Brown' that may not admit to voting for Trump."

And this thing about this "secret" thing where people don't want to admit supporting Trump but do is also completely unsupported. What happened in the election was not inconsistent with the polling. The polling said that Clinton would win the popular vote and she did. The polling said that the Electoral College was too close to call and it was.

The exit polling results, in terms of how racial groups view Trump, were very consistent with other polling both before and after the election. And the same basic picture is in place now.

Also, it's interesting to me that people claimed that Trump did well among Hispanics because the exit polling showed that he did slightly better among Hispanics than Romney did. But then when you point out that he did poorer than average among Hispanics for a Republican historically looking at exit polls going back through 1976 all of a sudden exit polling isn't reliable.

Exit polling IS reliable with respect to its purpose. And I assure you both of the two major political parties know it.

[AZGrizFan]

I’m not the one who’s been harping on exit polls for the past 18 months.

[JohnStOnge]

I’m not the one who’s been harping on exit polls for the past 18 months.

I just don't get why some people want to pretend that the Republicans in general and Trump in particular don't have a problem with non Whites. I don't get why people think denying the obvious truth is a benefit.

Exit polling tells you how different groups voted during the last Presidential election. Other polling tells you how different groups feel now. And they all tell you that Republicans in general and Trump in Particular were not popular with non Whites during the 2016 election and they are not popular with non Whites now. If you had an election tomorrow in which only non Whites could vote Trump would lose by at least a 2:1 margin to any candidate the Democrats put up.

The other part of the picture is that Whites are decreasing as a percentage of the population. There is no indication that anything is going to change about that.

If you favor the Republican/Conservative side, what is the benefit to denying that the future does not look good for your side unless you change something about the sentiment among non Whites? Do you think that one can solve a problem by pretending it doesn't exist?

[CID1990]

I just posted about that. They said he was very unpopular among non Whites then. They say he's very unpopular among non Whites now. You can check for yourself. It is what it is.

Like for instance you can look at the latest poll up on RCP with respect to Trump favorability up right now at https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/c ... Report.pdf. Go to 76A. 8% of Blacks and 29% of Hispanics said they have a favorable view of Trump.

Exit polling during the 2016 election had 8% of Blacks and 28% of "latino" voting for Trump. And the 8% of Blacks was the lowest level among Blacks for a Republican candidate EXCEPT for the two candidates who ran against the Black guy. The 28% of Hispanics was below the average historically for Republican candidates among Hispanics.

Oh, NOW you’re going to believe exit polls? They were wrong about everything else, but somehow right about this? Trust me, there are LOTS of “team Brown” that may not want to admit to voting for Trump, but they did. And there’s lots who may not want to admit supporting him, but they DO.

Among all of my friends who arent white - Ive seen the kind of blue-on-blue vitriol reserved for those who give the slightest inkling of support for anything Trump does.


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[AZGrizFan]

I’m not the one who’s been harping on exit polls for the past 18 months.

I just don't get why some people want to pretend that the Republicans in general and Trump in particular don't have a problem with non Whites. I don't get why people think denying the obvious truth is a benefit.

Exit polling tells you how different groups voted during the last Presidential election. Other polling tells you how different groups feel now. And they all tell you that Republicans in general and Trump in Particular were not popular with non Whites during the 2016 election and they are not popular with non Whites now. If you had an election tomorrow in which only non Whites could vote Trump would lose by at least a 2:1 margin to any candidate the Democrats put up.

The other part of the picture is that Whites are decreasing as a percentage of the population. There is no indication that anything is going to change about that.

If you favor the Republican/Conservative side, what is the benefit to denying that the future does not look good for your side unless you change something about the sentiment among non Whites? Do you think that one can solve a problem by pretending it doesn't exist?

Do you think you can create a problem just by insisting it exists over and over and over and over?

[houndawg]

I’m not the one who’s been harping on exit polls for the past 18 months.

I just don't get why some people want to pretend that the Republicans in general and Trump in particular don't have a problem with non Whites. I don't get why people think denying the obvious truth is a benefit.

Exit polling tells you how different groups voted during the last Presidential election. Other polling tells you how different groups feel now. And they all tell you that Republicans in general and Trump in Particular were not popular with non Whites during the 2016 election and they are not popular with non Whites now. If you had an election tomorrow in which only non Whites could vote Trump would lose by at least a 2:1 margin to any candidate the Democrats put up.

The other part of the picture is that Whites are decreasing as a percentage of the population. There is no indication that anything is going to change about that.

If you favor the Republican/Conservative side, what is the benefit to denying that the future does not look good for your side unless you change something about the sentiment among non Whites? Do you think that one can solve a problem by pretending it doesn't exist?

That right there is the entire picture from the Republican pov.

[houndawg]

Oh, NOW you’re going to believe exit polls? They were wrong about everything else, but somehow right about this? Trust me, there are LOTS of “team Brown” that may not want to admit to voting for Trump, but they did. And there’s lots who may not want to admit supporting him, but they DO.

Among all of my friends who arent white - Ive seen the kind of blue-on-blue vitriol reserved for those who give the slightest inkling of support for anything Trump does.


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Like considering making certain Americans available for "interview" by the GRU? Asking for a friend in the Foreign Service.

[Ibanez]

Do it!..that will win you support!
OCASIO-CORTEZ CALLS FOR OCCUPATION OF AIRPORTS, ICE OFFICES
https://www.newsweek.com/ocasio-cortez- ... ze-1028387

This woman will be President of the United States one day. Time will allow her to polish up her passionate responses, but at least her heart is in the right place. Passion/heart are lethal combinations.

I really hope you're alive when it happens.

She won’t be President. If you thought people came out in droves and changed parties to prevent Clinton from winning, imagine the turnout to vote against an angry, far left Socialist. You’re dreaming, Trip


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[Ibanez]

This woman will be President of the United States one day. Time will allow her to polish up her passionate responses, but at least her heart is in the right place. Passion/heart are lethal combinations.

I really hope you're alive when it happens.

Probably right, you Millennials will certainly try to elect a total airhead, who has no sense of the real world. This would be your perfect candidate.


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Millennials elected Trump? Who knew!!??


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[houndawg]

This woman will be President of the United States one day. Time will allow her to polish up her passionate responses, but at least her heart is in the right place. Passion/heart are lethal combinations.

I really hope you're alive when it happens.

She won’t be President. If you thought people came out in droves and changed parties to prevent Clinton from winning, imagine the turnout to vote against an angry, far left Socialist. You’re dreaming, Trip


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So you don't think there will be a large turnout to prevent Putin's personal fellatrix from winning? Interesting.

[Ibanez]

She won’t be President. If you thought people came out in droves and changed parties to prevent Clinton from winning, imagine the turnout to vote against an angry, far left Socialist. You’re dreaming, Trip


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So you don't think there will be a large turnout to prevent Putin's personal fellatrix from winning? Interesting.

Nope.


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[CID1990]

Among all of my friends who arent white - Ive seen the kind of blue-on-blue vitriol reserved for those who give the slightest inkling of support for anything Trump does.


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Like considering making certain Americans available for "interview" by the GRU? Asking for a friend in the Foreign Service.

You completely missed what I was talking about. You arent even in the same ballpark

Why are you thrashing around lately?


BTW- to your unrelated point- all the AMB has to do is say, "fvck you" (which is what I would do)


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[BDKJMU]

I’m not the one who’s been harping on exit polls for the past 18 months.

I just don't get why some people want to pretend that the Republicans in general and Trump in particular don't have a problem with non Whites. I don't get why people think denying the obvious truth is a benefit.

Exit polling tells you how different groups voted during the last Presidential election. Other polling tells you how different groups feel now. And they all tell you that Republicans in general and Trump in Particular were not popular with non Whites during the 2016 election and they are not popular with non Whites now. If you had an election tomorrow in which only non Whites could vote Trump would lose by at least a 2:1 margin to any candidate the Democrats put up.

The other part of the picture is that Whites are decreasing as a percentage of the population. There is no indication that anything is going to change about that.

If you favor the Republican/Conservative side, what is the benefit to denying that the future does not look good for your side unless you change something about the sentiment among non Whites? Do you think that one can solve a problem by pretending it doesn't exist?

Landlines. I bet there are tons of people out there who:
-Don't have a landline.
-Or have a landline, but don't answer their landline phone of #s they don't recognize (I'm one of those people, have a CPR Call Blocker 5000).
-Or have a landline, answer #s they don't recognize, but decline to do the poll & hang up.

Cell phones:
-Polls arent allowed to robo dial cell phones, but only manually. Even if that's changed, lots of people don't answer calls from numbers they don't recognize (I'm one of those people),
-Or they answer #s they don't recognize & decline to do a poll & hang up.

Exit polls:
-Vote by mail, so no exit polls.
-Or if voting in person, decline to do exit polls (I've always declined)..

So no way now a days can pre election polls & exit polling be all that accurate.

[Skjellyfetti]

So no way now a days can pre election polls & exit polling be all that accurate.

I'll try to remember that the next time you get excited about the latest Rasmussen poll

[JohnStOnge]

Do you think you can create a problem just by insisting it exists over and over and over and over?

No. I didn't create the long term problem for the Republican Party associated with the demographic evolution of this country. I'm just observing it. It's not a matter of "insisting it exists." It exists.

But you see this thing, starting with the immediate aftermath of the election, where Trump and Republicans for some reason started claiming he did GREAT among non Whites because he got higher percentages of the Black vote (8% vs. 6%) and the Hispanic vote (28% vs. 27%) than Romney did. Never mind that Romney was running against a charismatic non White candidate while Trump was running against Hillary. Never mind that the percent Black vote Trump got was lower than any Republican who didn't run against the Black guy got. Never mind that before Romney McCain got 31% of the Hispanic vote and before that Bush the Younger got 44%.

For some reason Republicans felt compelled to spin this myth about how the Republicans suddenly changed the basic picture with respect to "Team Brown" due to Trump. And that's complete nonsense.

[JohnStOnge]

I just don't get why some people want to pretend that the Republicans in general and Trump in particular don't have a problem with non Whites. I don't get why people think denying the obvious truth is a benefit.

Exit polling tells you how different groups voted during the last Presidential election. Other polling tells you how different groups feel now. And they all tell you that Republicans in general and Trump in Particular were not popular with non Whites during the 2016 election and they are not popular with non Whites now. If you had an election tomorrow in which only non Whites could vote Trump would lose by at least a 2:1 margin to any candidate the Democrats put up.

The other part of the picture is that Whites are decreasing as a percentage of the population. There is no indication that anything is going to change about that.

If you favor the Republican/Conservative side, what is the benefit to denying that the future does not look good for your side unless you change something about the sentiment among non Whites? Do you think that one can solve a problem by pretending it doesn't exist?

Landlines. I bet there are tons of people out there who:
-Don't have a landline.
-Or have a landline, but don't answer their landline phone of #s they don't recognize (I'm one of those people, have a CPR Call Blocker 5000).
-Or have a landline, answer #s they don't recognize, but decline to do the poll & hang up.

Cell phones:
-Polls arent allowed to robo dial cell phones, but only manually. Even if that's changed, lots of people don't answer calls from numbers they don't recognize (I'm one of those people),
-Or they answer #s they don't recognize & decline to do a poll & hang up.

Exit polls:
-Vote by mail, so no exit polls.
-Or if voting in person, decline to do exit polls (I've always declined)..

So no way now a days can pre election polls & exit polling be all that accurate.

Yet the RealClearPolitics average of polls for the overall vote had Clinton by 3.2 and she won it by 2.1. You're kidding yourself.

[kalm]

So no way now a days can pre election polls & exit polling be all that accurate.

I'll try to remember that the next time you get excited about the latest Rasmussen poll

[AZGrizFan]

Do you think you can create a problem just by insisting it exists over and over and over and over?

No. I didn't create the long term problem for the Republican Party associated with the demographic evolution of this country. I'm just observing it. It's not a matter of "insisting it exists." It exists.

But you see this thing, starting with the immediate aftermath of the election, where Trump and Republicans for some reason started claiming he did GREAT among non Whites because he got higher percentages of the Black vote (8% vs. 6%) and the Hispanic vote (28% vs. 27%) than Romney did. Never mind that Romney was running against a charismatic non White candidate while Trump was running against Hillary. Never mind that the percent Black vote Trump got was lower than any Republican who didn't run against the Black guy got. Never mind that before Romney McCain got 31% of the Hispanic vote and before that Bush the Younger got 44%.

For some reason Republicans felt compelled to spin this myth about how the Republicans suddenly changed the basic picture with respect to "Team Brown" due to Trump. And that's complete nonsense.

In all your analysis, you forget one thing: Donks have to find a reasonable candidate to put up. And they need to stop stepping on their dicks calling half the country "deplorables", etc., etc. Donks just can't help themselves from poking the bear. They need to stop moving more and more left--which they're doubling down on, by the way. They need to stop with the violent, rigid "you're either 100% with us, or you're against us" mentality. Americans (of ALL colors, outside of the strongholds like CA, NY, WA, OR & Northeast) are waking up to the facts regarding where the donk vision would take the country...and they're not liking what they're seeing. And comparing what McCain and Bush got from the Hispanic vote is comical. Both come from border states and are highly visible with the Hispanic population. Bush is fluent in Spanish (well, as fluent as he can be in any language). Romney came from Utah. Trump came from....wherever Trumps come from.

[JohnStOnge]

In all your analysis, you forget one thing: Donks have to find a reasonable candidate to put up. And they need to stop stepping on their dicks calling half the country "deplorables", etc., etc. Donks just can't help themselves from poking the bear. They need to stop moving more and more left--which they're doubling down on, by the way. They need to stop with the violent, rigid "you're either 100% with us, or you're against us" mentality. Americans (of ALL colors, outside of the strongholds like CA, NY, WA, OR & Northeast) are waking up to the facts regarding where the donk vision would take the country...and they're not liking what they're seeing. And comparing what McCain and Bush got from the Hispanic vote is comical. Both come from border states and are highly visible with the Hispanic population. Bush is fluent in Spanish (well, as fluent as he can be in any language). Romney came from Utah. Trump came from....wherever Trumps come from.

I've written before that whether the Democrats win the next Presidential election or not will depend on whether they can come up with a decent candidate. But a decent candidate is all they need. Trump is not a strong candidate. He's got very strong support among Republicans. But Republicans are only about 30% of the population. And, regardless of 2020, the Democrats are in stronger position for the long term.

BTW "independents" actually voted for Trump by an estimated 46% to 42% in 2016. Now the polling pretty much shows them disapproving of his performance.

I think I've posted the table at the bottom of this post before and it's kind of busy but focus on the blue and red highlighted rows. The blue shows how Trump did among Blacks and Hispanics. The red shows how Republicans have done on average since exit polling started in 1976. Trump got 8% of the Black vote and 29% of the Hispanic vote. Republicans on average have gotten 10% of the Black vote and 30% of the Hispanic vote. In 2016 Trump lost among Blacks by 80 percentage points among Blacks and by 36 percentage points among Hispanics. On average Republicans have lost by 78 percentage points among Blacks and by 36 percentage points among Hispanics.

And the body of current polling does not suggest any change in the basic picture. It appears that a lot more Blacks and Hispanics disapprove of Trump than approve of him.

[JohnStOnge]

[ And they need to stop stepping on their dicks calling half the country "deplorables",

I don't think they do. First of all, I don't think "half the country" supports Donald Trump. Trump supporters are clearly in the minority. And I think that we are at a time wherein we shouldn't be pandering to people who would do something like vote for a person like Trump. Those people don't need to be "understood." They don't need to be accommodated. They need to be defeated. They are a negative influence that needs to be neutralized.

Frankly I wish we could take away their right to vote. They've clearly demonstrated that they don't have the judgement needed to exercise such an important responsibility. We can't. But I wish we could. People who would do something like that shouldn't be involved in determining the direction of this country.

[AZGrizFan]

In all your analysis, you forget one thing: Donks have to find a reasonable candidate to put up. And they need to stop stepping on their dicks calling half the country "deplorables", etc., etc. Donks just can't help themselves from poking the bear. They need to stop moving more and more left--which they're doubling down on, by the way. They need to stop with the violent, rigid "you're either 100% with us, or you're against us" mentality. Americans (of ALL colors, outside of the strongholds like CA, NY, WA, OR & Northeast) are waking up to the facts regarding where the donk vision would take the country...and they're not liking what they're seeing. And comparing what McCain and Bush got from the Hispanic vote is comical. Both come from border states and are highly visible with the Hispanic population. Bush is fluent in Spanish (well, as fluent as he can be in any language). Romney came from Utah. Trump came from....wherever Trumps come from.

I've written before that whether the Democrats win the next Presidential election or not will depend on whether they can come up with a decent candidate. But a decent candidate is all they need. Trump is not a strong candidate. He's got very strong support among Republicans. But Republicans are only about 30% of the population. And, regardless of 2020, the Democrats are in stronger position for the long term.

BTW "independents" actually voted for Trump by an estimated 46% to 42% in 2016. Now the polling pretty much shows them disapproving of his performance.

I think I've posted the table at the bottom of this post before and it's kind of busy but focus on the blue and red highlighted rows. The blue shows how Trump did among Blacks and Hispanics. The red shows how Republicans have done on average since exit polling started in 1976. Trump got 8% of the Black vote and 29% of the Hispanic vote. Republicans on average have gotten 10% of the Black vote and 30% of the Hispanic vote. In 2016 Trump lost among Blacks by 80 percentage points among Blacks and by 36 percentage points among Hispanics. On average Republicans have lost by 78 percentage points among Blacks and by 36 percentage points among Hispanics.

And the body of current polling does not suggest any change in the basic picture. It appears that a lot more Blacks and Hispanics disapprove of Trump than approve of him.

He was stronger than Hildabeast. And that's all that matters. The further left the donks move, the less in-touch with Mainstream-America they become. So stats become meaningless at that point.

[css75]

In all your analysis, you forget one thing: Donks have to find a reasonable candidate to put up. And they need to stop stepping on their dicks calling half the country "deplorables", etc., etc. Donks just can't help themselves from poking the bear. They need to stop moving more and more left--which they're doubling down on, by the way. They need to stop with the violent, rigid "you're either 100% with us, or you're against us" mentality. Americans (of ALL colors, outside of the strongholds like CA, NY, WA, OR & Northeast) are waking up to the facts regarding where the donk vision would take the country...and they're not liking what they're seeing. And comparing what McCain and Bush got from the Hispanic vote is comical. Both come from border states and are highly visible with the Hispanic population. Bush is fluent in Spanish (well, as fluent as he can be in any language). Romney came from Utah. Trump came from....wherever Trumps come from.

I've written before that whether the Democrats win the next Presidential election or not will depend on whether they can come up with a decent candidate. But a decent candidate is all they need. Trump is not a strong candidate. He's got very strong support among Republicans. But Republicans are only about 30% of the population. And, regardless of 2020, the Democrats are in stronger position for the long term.

BTW "independents" actually voted for Trump by an estimated 46% to 42% in 2016. Now the polling pretty much shows them disapproving of his performance.

I think I've posted the table at the bottom of this post before and it's kind of busy but focus on the blue and red highlighted rows. The blue shows how Trump did among Blacks and Hispanics. The red shows how Republicans have done on average since exit polling started in 1976. Trump got 8% of the Black vote and 29% of the Hispanic vote. Republicans on average have gotten 10% of the Black vote and 30% of the Hispanic vote. In 2016 Trump lost among Blacks by 80 percentage points among Blacks and by 36 percentage points among Hispanics. On average Republicans have lost by 78 percentage points among Blacks and by 36 percentage points among Hispanics.

And the body of current polling does not suggest any change in the basic picture. It appears that a lot more Blacks and Hispanics disapprove of Trump than approve of him.

If the GOP is only 30% of population, how is that they have over 30 governors, and sole control of over 30 statehouse? Give this nonsense up,


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[Ivytalk]

Frankly I wish we could take away their right to vote. They've clearly demonstrated that they don't have the judgement needed to exercise such an important responsibility. We can't. But I wish we could. People who would do something like that shouldn't be involved in determining the direction of this country.

Constitutional conservative. Not.

Do you ever bother to think about the underlying idiocy of this line of thinking? If you disenfranchise the Trump voters, we’d get statist, anti-Liberty social policies out the wazoo from the low information voters of the left. But that’s OK with you, because you’re one of them.

[JohnStOnge]

Frankly I wish we could take away their right to vote. They've clearly demonstrated that they don't have the judgement needed to exercise such an important responsibility. We can't. But I wish we could. People who would do something like that shouldn't be involved in determining the direction of this country.

Constitutional conservative. Not.

Do you ever bother to think about the underlying idiocy of this line of thinking? If you disenfranchise the Trump voters, we’d get statist, anti-Liberty social policies out the wazoo from the low information voters of the left. But that’s OK with you, because you’re one of them.

I SAID "we can't."

[kalm]

No. I didn't create the long term problem for the Republican Party associated with the demographic evolution of this country. I'm just observing it. It's not a matter of "insisting it exists." It exists.

But you see this thing, starting with the immediate aftermath of the election, where Trump and Republicans for some reason started claiming he did GREAT among non Whites because he got higher percentages of the Black vote (8% vs. 6%) and the Hispanic vote (28% vs. 27%) than Romney did. Never mind that Romney was running against a charismatic non White candidate while Trump was running against Hillary. Never mind that the percent Black vote Trump got was lower than any Republican who didn't run against the Black guy got. Never mind that before Romney McCain got 31% of the Hispanic vote and before that Bush the Younger got 44%.

For some reason Republicans felt compelled to spin this myth about how the Republicans suddenly changed the basic picture with respect to "Team Brown" due to Trump. And that's complete nonsense.

In all your analysis, you forget one thing: Donks have to find a reasonable candidate to put up. And they need to stop stepping on their dicks calling half the country "deplorables", etc., etc. Donks just can't help themselves from poking the bear. They need to stop moving more and more left--which they're doubling down on, by the way. They need to stop with the violent, rigid "you're either 100% with us, or you're against us" mentality. Americans (of ALL colors, outside of the strongholds like CA, NY, WA, OR & Northeast) are waking up to the facts regarding where the donk vision would take the country...and they're not liking what they're seeing. And comparing what McCain and Bush got from the Hispanic vote is comical. Both come from border states and are highly visible with the Hispanic population. Bush is fluent in Spanish (well, as fluent as he can be in any language). Romney came from Utah. Trump came from....wherever Trumps come from.

The violence and rigidity from the Democratic Party is truly frightening!!!!!!!!!




Why...if we’re not careful, we we could run head long into the second wave of a mixed economy with adequate military spending, reasonable banking regulation, and a social safety net!!!!!