The Official "Making America Great Again" Thread

[SDHornet]

[Skjellyfetti]

Annual

[JohnStOnge]

I think this is a good piece and the media need to do more stuff like this. Could be that the second part, which is forecasting by an academic, turns out to be wrong. But the first part, which is retrospective putting the current economic performance into context, is spot on. This is why Trump and his allies need to discredit the media. He makes a lot of false and/or misleading statements. It's his whole modus operandi. And the media are going to call him out on it. So it's important for him and his allies to discredit the media to the extent that he/they can.

phpBB [video]

[93henfan]

I think this is a good piece and the media need to do more stuff like this. Could be that the second part, which is forecasting by an academic, turns out to be wrong. But the first part, which is retrospective putting the current economic performance into context, is spot on. This is why Trump and his allies need to discredit the media. He makes a lot of false and/or misleading statements. It's his whole modus operandi. And the media are going to call him out on it. So it's important for him and his allies to discredit the media to the extent that he/they can.

phpBB [video]

Didn't watch. Couldn't get past:


Does Maddow cry in it? Or get fighting mad?

[JohnStOnge]

I think this is a good piece and the media need to do more stuff like this. Could be that the second part, which is forecasting by an academic, turns out to be wrong. But the first part, which is retrospective putting the current economic performance into context, is spot on. This is why Trump and his allies need to discredit the media. He makes a lot of false and/or misleading statements. It's his whole modus operandi. And the media are going to call him out on it. So it's important for him and his allies to discredit the media to the extent that he/they can.

phpBB [video]

Didn't watch. Couldn't get past:


And that is what Trump is trying to accomplish. He's trying to get away with his constant stream of bullshit and he needs for people to tune the media out like that in order to succeed.

[AZGrizFan]

Didn't watch. Couldn't get past:


And that is what Trump is trying to accomplish. He's trying to get away with his constant stream of bullshit and he needs for people to tune the media out like that in order to succeed.

Yeah. The entirety of MSNBC’s lack of credibility started on 11/4/16.

[SeattleGriz]

phpBB [video]

[Chizzang]

I think this is a good piece and the media need to do more stuff like this. Could be that the second part, which is forecasting by an academic, turns out to be wrong. But the first part, which is retrospective putting the current economic performance into context, is spot on. This is why Trump and his allies need to discredit the media. He makes a lot of false and/or misleading statements. It's his whole modus operandi. And the media are going to call him out on it. So it's important for him and his allies to discredit the media to the extent that he/they can.

phpBB [video]

Didn't watch. Couldn't get past:


Does Maddow cry in it? Or get fighting mad?

It's pretty painless...
Trump says "Historical economic growth"
They show chart that refutes claim

repeat about 5 times... pretty much everything Trump said about the economy was either
a) Wild exaggeration
b) Completely false
or
c) Wrong

To the surprise of nobody Trump lied 5 times in 5 minutes

[93henfan]

Didn't watch. Couldn't get past:


Does Maddow cry in it? Or get fighting mad?

It's pretty painless...
Trump says "Historical economic growth"
They show chart that refutes claim

repeat about 5 times... pretty much everything Trump said about the economy was either
a) Wild exaggeration
b) Completely false
or
c) Wrong

To the surprise of nobody Trump lied 5 times in 5 minutes

My TSP is looking terrific in this terrible Trump economy. I hope he keeps lying.

[Chizzang]

It's pretty painless...
Trump says "Historical economic growth"
They show chart that refutes claim

repeat about 5 times... pretty much everything Trump said about the economy was either
a) Wild exaggeration
b) Completely false
or
c) Wrong

To the surprise of nobody Trump lied 5 times in 5 minutes

My TSP is looking terrific in this terrible Trump economy. I hope he keeps lying.

Not even remotely the point...

[SDHornet]

Also NBC:

phpBB [video]

[houndawg]

Annual

...don't ruin it for him, he so happy..

[JohnStOnge]

It's pretty painless...
Trump says "Historical economic growth"
They show chart that refutes claim

repeat about 5 times... pretty much everything Trump said about the economy was either
a) Wild exaggeration
b) Completely false
or
c) Wrong

To the surprise of nobody Trump lied 5 times in 5 minutes

My TSP is looking terrific in this terrible Trump economy. I hope he keeps lying.

It's not that the economy is terrible. It's that it's essentially the same economy as it was 2, 3, or 4 years ago. GDP growing, stock market generally rising, unemployment going down. I think the chart below kind of says it all. It's quarterly GDP over the past 10 years. Not percent growth. Just raw growth. If you go to the page I got it from, click on the option to show 10 years, and hover your cursor you'll find that GDP bottomed out at 15,134 (in billions) in the second quarter of 2009. Then it started up and it's been moving up every since. The graph extends out to the second quarter of 2018 where it is at 18,507.

The main takeaway is that there is no way anybody who didn't know who was in power when would look at that graph and say "OHHHHH. Something happened around the end of 2016 to change things!" There WAS no turnaround period, much less a turnaround of "historic proportions" as Trump said. The most recent "turnaround" was around 2009.

When Trump and his allies claim that the economy was awful then Trump rode in on his white horse and dramatically changed things they are lying. Yes, your TSP has done well recently. It also did well when the S&P500 increased by 33.29% during 2013 (it went up by 21.83% in 2017). BTW it also went up by 13.69% in 2014 and unless something changes dramatically (it's up by 2.65% so far this year) 2013 and 2014 is going to have been a WAY better 2 year period than 2017 and 2018 turn out to be.

BTW I used the S&P 500 because I know that the Federal TSP uses a fund based on the S&P 500 as an option and it does not use a fund based on the DJIA.

Anyway, I asked this before but I'll ask it again: Were you singing Obama's praises when your TSP was soaring during 2013 and 2014? If you do the math you'll see that the S&P 500 increased in value by 51.53% during those two years. Trump wasn't President then.

Here's the real quarterly GDP graph (from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1):



It's just ridiculous to say that the current economy is "because" of Trump. It's fair to say he hasn't screwed things up yet. But it's not fair to say that he "caused" the current relatively good situation.

[JohnStOnge]

Also NBC:

phpBB [video]

If you watch that there is absolutely nothing unreasonable about it. He didn't say Trump grew the economy to distract from other things. He said that Trump really jumped on the GDP growth thing in the context of a situation in which a lot of negative things were going on for him.

And when he talks about Trump over selling the economic news he is correct. Trump WAY over did it give that he was talking about a 4.1% quarterly growth estimate under circumstances where economists generally believe the level was inflated by efforts to sell things before tariffs associated with his trade actions took effect. Do you recall Obama giving a presentation like that when there was a quarterly GDP report of 5.2 percent growth while he was in office?

[JohnStOnge]

Also NBC:

phpBB [video]

BTW this is indicative of a very intellectually dishonest approach being repeatedly applied by the "side" I've been historically been on. People say the "media" said something they didn't say. Todd did not say Trump grew the economy in order to claim anything. What he said if you actually watch the video is a perfectly reasonable opinion. It is an opinion. But it's not off the wall.

And the fact is that Trump did repeatedly make false statements during the statement he was talking about.

[93henfan]

My TSP is looking terrific in this terrible Trump economy. I hope he keeps lying.

It's not that the economy is terrible. It's that it's essentially the same economy as it was 2, 3, or 4 years ago. GDP growing, stock market generally rising, unemployment going down. I think the chart below kind of says it all. It's quarterly GDP over the past 10 years. Not percent growth. Just raw growth. If you go to the page I got it from, click on the option to show 10 years, and hover your cursor you'll find that GDP bottomed out at 15,134 (in billions) in the second quarter of 2009. Then it started up and it's been moving up every since. The graph extends out to the second quarter of 2018 where it is at 18,507.

The main takeaway is that there is no way anybody who didn't know who was in power when would look at that graph and say "OHHHHH. Something happened around the end of 2016 to change things!" There WAS no turnaround period, much less a turnaround of "historic proportions" as Trump said. The most recent "turnaround" was around 2009.

When Trump and his allies claim that the economy was awful then Trump rode in on his white horse and dramatically changed things they are lying. Yes, your TSP has done well recently. It also did well when the S&P500 increased by 33.29% during 2013 (it went up by 21.83% in 2017). BTW it also went up by 13.69% in 2014 and unless something changes dramatically (it's up by 2.65% so far this year) 2013 and 2014 is going to have been a WAY better 2 year period than 2017 and 2018 turn out to be.

BTW I used the S&P 500 because I know that the Federal TSP uses a fund based on the S&P 500 as an option and it does not use a fund based on the DJIA.

Anyway, I asked this before but I'll ask it again: Were you singing Obama's praises when your TSP was soaring during 2013 and 2014? If you do the math you'll see that the S&P 500 increased in value by 51.53% during those two years. Trump wasn't President then.

Here's the real quarterly GDP graph (from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1):



It's just ridiculous to say that the current economy is "because" of Trump. It's fair to say he hasn't screwed things up yet. But it's not fair to say that he "caused" the current relatively good situation.

There's no denying that the stock market was flatlined for a year and a half before the 2016 election and then turned sharply up. We've been over that and you won't admit the obvious Trump effect on the stock market. I won't go over it again, but I'm right. The market had stagnated under Obama and then turned sharply upward starting in November 2016.

If you can't see the change in trajectory, you're being willfully dull:

[CID1990]

It's not that the economy is terrible. It's that it's essentially the same economy as it was 2, 3, or 4 years ago. GDP growing, stock market generally rising, unemployment going down. I think the chart below kind of says it all. It's quarterly GDP over the past 10 years. Not percent growth. Just raw growth. If you go to the page I got it from, click on the option to show 10 years, and hover your cursor you'll find that GDP bottomed out at 15,134 (in billions) in the second quarter of 2009. Then it started up and it's been moving up every since. The graph extends out to the second quarter of 2018 where it is at 18,507.

The main takeaway is that there is no way anybody who didn't know who was in power when would look at that graph and say "OHHHHH. Something happened around the end of 2016 to change things!" There WAS no turnaround period, much less a turnaround of "historic proportions" as Trump said. The most recent "turnaround" was around 2009.

When Trump and his allies claim that the economy was awful then Trump rode in on his white horse and dramatically changed things they are lying. Yes, your TSP has done well recently. It also did well when the S&P500 increased by 33.29% during 2013 (it went up by 21.83% in 2017). BTW it also went up by 13.69% in 2014 and unless something changes dramatically (it's up by 2.65% so far this year) 2013 and 2014 is going to have been a WAY better 2 year period than 2017 and 2018 turn out to be.

BTW I used the S&P 500 because I know that the Federal TSP uses a fund based on the S&P 500 as an option and it does not use a fund based on the DJIA.

Anyway, I asked this before but I'll ask it again: Were you singing Obama's praises when your TSP was soaring during 2013 and 2014? If you do the math you'll see that the S&P 500 increased in value by 51.53% during those two years. Trump wasn't President then.

Here's the real quarterly GDP graph (from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1):



It's just ridiculous to say that the current economy is "because" of Trump. It's fair to say he hasn't screwed things up yet. But it's not fair to say that he "caused" the current relatively good situation.

There's no denying that the stock market was flatlined for a year and a half before the 2016 election and then turned sharply up. We've been over that and you won't admit the obvious Trump effect on the stock market. I won't go over it again, but I'm right. The market had stagnated under Obama and then turned sharply upward starting in November 2016.

If you can't see the change in trajectory, you're being willfully dull:

All I see in the graph is the Appalachians on the left, and the Rockies on the right. What am I missing?

[CAA Flagship]

It's not that the economy is terrible. It's that it's essentially the same economy as it was 2, 3, or 4 years ago.

WRONG. WRONG. WRONG.

Tell a golfer that hitting a drive INTO a 20mph wind is no different than hitting one WITH the wind.
Or tell a bicyclist that the LAST mile of a 10 mile uphill climb is as easy as the FIRST mile.
Or tell a QB that it's just as easy to throw a pass in a 4th quarter rain as it is during a dry 1st quarter.

Conditions matter, John. The current economy is facing rising inflation, rising interest rates, and the unwinding of all the QE that was done. In addition, the self-inflicted trade wars. And don't think that the slow policy reaction by the ECB over the last 7 years isn't a drag on the world economies.

[kalm]

It's not that the economy is terrible. It's that it's essentially the same economy as it was 2, 3, or 4 years ago.

WRONG. WRONG. WRONG.

Tell a golfer that hitting a drive INTO a 20mph wind is no different than hitting one WITH the wind.
Or tell a bicyclist that the LAST mile of a 10 mile uphill climb is as easy as the FIRST mile.
Or tell a QB that it's just as easy to throw a pass in a 4th quarter rain as it is during a dry 1st quarter.

Conditions matter, John. The current economy is facing rising inflation, rising interest rates, and the unwinding of all the QE that was done. In addition, the self-inflicted trade wars. And don't think that the slow policy reaction by the ECB over the last 7 years isn't a drag on the world economies.

When it’s breezy, swing easy.

[CID1990]

It's not that the economy is terrible. It's that it's essentially the same economy as it was 2, 3, or 4 years ago.

WRONG. WRONG. WRONG.

Tell a golfer that hitting a drive INTO a 20mph wind is no different than hitting one WITH the wind.
Or tell a bicyclist that the LAST mile of a 10 mile uphill climb is as easy as the FIRST mile.
Or tell a QB that it's just as easy to throw a pass in a 4th quarter rain as it is during a dry 1st quarter.

Conditions matter, John. The current economy is facing rising inflation, rising interest rates, and the unwinding of all the QE that was done. In addition, the self-inflicted trade wars. And don't think that the slow policy reaction by the ECB over the last 7 years isn't a drag on the world economies.

Flaggy,

Sun Tzu once said...

"When your enemy is admitting that it really is the economy (stupid)... do not interrupt him"


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[CAA Flagship]

WRONG. WRONG. WRONG.

Tell a golfer that hitting a drive INTO a 20mph wind is no different than hitting one WITH the wind.
Or tell a bicyclist that the LAST mile of a 10 mile uphill climb is as easy as the FIRST mile.
Or tell a QB that it's just as easy to throw a pass in a 4th quarter rain as it is during a dry 1st quarter.

Conditions matter, John. The current economy is facing rising inflation, rising interest rates, and the unwinding of all the QE that was done. In addition, the self-inflicted trade wars. And don't think that the slow policy reaction by the ECB over the last 7 years isn't a drag on the world economies.

Flaggy,

Sun Tzu once said...

"When your enemy is admitting that it really is the economy (stupid)... do not interrupt him"


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm going with the "if angry" option described below:

phpBB [video]

[93henfan]

Flaggy,

Sun Tzu once said...

"When your enemy is admitting that it really is the economy (stupid)... do not interrupt him"

I thought it was his dog. Shih, who said that.



Hah. What do I win?

[JohnStOnge]

There's no denying that the stock market was flatlined for a year and a half before the 2016 election and then turned sharply up. We've been over that and you won't admit the obvious Trump effect on the stock market. I won't go over it again, but I'm right. The market had stagnated under Obama and then turned sharply upward starting in November 2016.

If you can't see the change in trajectory, you're being willfully dull:

The date you pegged as the start of the increase is prior to the 2016 election. I personally would put it a little earlier. But either way, it was prior to the 2016 election.

There is variation in what the stock markets do. There are downward swings. There are relatively flat times. There are upward trends. I actually would look at late 2017 as a time when the slope increased notably. I think that the actual start of a generally upward trend after a "flat" period arguably started in early 2016:



There was a definite increase in the slope in late 2017. But then there was a flattening out:



Looks like it could be turning up again, but we'll have to see.

But the big thing is that this is not something outside of the range of what's happened since the stock market bottomed out in association with the "great recession" then started to rise again. I talked about the S&P earlier but the same general thing is true of the Dow. There was a two calendar year period during the Obama Administration when the Dow increased by 36%. There was another two calendar year period during the Obama Administration when the Dow increased by 31%.

2017, at 25.08%, fell short of the highest return during the Obama years (2013 at 26.499%). In order to top the two year high of the Obama administration the Dow would have to gain > 8.73% this year. That's not at all out of the realm of possibility. But it's also not something that seems definitely likely to happen right now either.

The point is that we are not seeing an upswing in the Dow that is unprecedented during the general Bull market that started during 2009.

[JohnStOnge]

BTW I think it's important that when we are looking at graphs of something whereby the important measure is "percent growth" there is a "magnification" of what's going on later in the period. I made a graph below to show what a constant 10% annual growth rate over 15 years looks like:



The general slope for the last five years is steeper than it is for the first five years. It makes it look like things are getting better. But they're not in terms of percent growth. The annual percent growth for years 1 through 5 is exactly the same as it is for years 11 through 15.

So, for instance, when you look at a graph of the Dow or the S&P over the past 10 years what happened in 2013 doesn't look as "steep" as what happened in 2017 does. But the percent growth for both indices was actually higher. And the three year period 2012 - 2014 was very good. The Dow grew by 46% over the period and the S&P did even better at an incredible 75%. But if you look at something like a 10 year graph of the S&P 2012 - 2014 isn't going to look all that remarkable because of the phenomenon illustrated by the graph above.

All other things being equal, if things are growing at all, it's going to look like things are better later in the period.

[93henfan]

Hahah, he still can’t admit it.

#TrumpTrain