2018 Big Sky Preseason Predictions

[Mvemjsunpx]

• 1. Eastern Washington__8-0_____9-2_____ Good thing the NAU game doesn't count
  2. Sacramento State ____7-1_____9-2 _____ They're the best team on paper. Can they avoid choking?
  3. Northern Arizona ____7-1____10-1_____ The 'Jacks aren't really this good, but their schedule is like hitting the lottery
  4. Weber State__________6-2_____8-3_____ A tough league start, but after that things are pretty favorable
  5. Idaho State __________5-3_____6-5_____ Can the Bengals actually get a winning record? With that schedule, they should
  6. Montana _____________4-4_____5-6_____ An unnecessary rebuild begins…
  7. UC Davis ____________4-4_____6-5_____ Their passing game is deadly, but everything else is mediocre
  8. Montana State_______4-4_____5-6_____ Here comes Jeff Choate's 10-year contract extension
  9. Idaho________________4-4_____5-6_____ The Vandals just lost too much on offense to be good
  10.Southern Utah _______2-6_____3-8_____ The T-Birds are only good in odd-numbered years
  11.Northern Colorado___2-6_____2-9_____ The Bears aren't really this bad, but their schedule is like repeated kicks in the nuts
  12.North Dakota ________2-6_____3-8_____ I don't think their lack of auto-bid eligibility is really going to matter this year
  13.Cal Poly _____________1-7_____2-9_____ Good thing Tim Walsh just got a new contract extension
  14.Portland State________0-8_____1-10____ The days of Barney-Gumble-Ball are coming to an end

[Mvemjsunpx]

• Best Rushing Offense - Sac State
  Worst Rushing Offense - Idaho
  
  Best Passing Offense - UC Davis
  Worst Passing Offense - Portland St.
  
  Best Overall Offense - Sac State
  Worst Overall Offense - Idaho
  
  Best Run Defense - Weber St.
  Worst Run Defense - Portland St.
  
  Best Pass Defense - Northern Arizona
  Worst Pass Defense - Portland St.
  
  Best Overall Defense - Weber St.
  Worst Overall Defense - Portland St.
  
  Best Special Teams - Cal Poly
  Worst Special Teams - Portland St.
  
  
  
  Best Quarterback - Jake Maier (UCD)
  Best Running Back - James Madison (ISU)
  Best Wide Receiver - Keelan Doss (UCD)
  Best Tight End - Charlie Taumoepeau (PSU)
  Best WR/TE Corps - Montana
  Best Offensive Lineman - Noah Johnson (ID)
  Best Offensive Line - Eastern Washington
  
  Best Defensive Lineman - Keifer Morris (UNC)
  Best Defensive Line - Sac State
  Best Linebacker - Kaden Ellis (ID)
  Best LB Corps - Weber St.
  Best Defensive Back - Mister Harriel (SAC)
  Best Secondary - Northern Arizona
  
  Best Kicker - Collin Root (UNC)
  Best Punter - Jared Padmos (MSU)
  Best Ret. Specialist - Rashid Shaheed (WEB)
  Best Return Teams - Weber St.

[AZGrizFan]

• 1. Eastern Washington__8-0_____9-2_____ Good thing the NAU game doesn't count
  2. Sacramento State ____7-1_____9-2 _____ They're the best team on paper. Can they avoid choking?
  3. Northern Arizona ____7-1____10-1_____ The 'Jacks aren't really this good, but their schedule is like hitting the lottery
  4. Weber State__________6-2_____8-3_____ A tough league start, but after that things are pretty favorable
  5. Idaho State __________5-3_____6-5_____ Can the Bengals actually get a winning record? With that schedule, they should
  6. Montana _____________4-4_____5-6_____ An unnecessary rebuild begins…
  7. UC Davis ____________4-4_____6-5_____ Their passing game is deadly, but everything else is mediocre
  8. Montana State_______4-4_____5-6_____ Here comes Jeff Choate's 10-year contract extension
  9. Idaho________________4-4_____5-6_____ The Vandals just lost too much on offense to be good
  10.Southern Utah _______2-6_____3-8_____ The T-Birds are only good in odd-numbered years
  11.Northern Colorado___2-6_____2-9_____ The Bears aren't really this bad, but their schedule is like repeated kicks in the nuts
  12.North Dakota ________2-6_____3-8_____ I don't think their lack of auto-bid eligibility is really going to matter this year
  13.Cal Poly _____________1-7_____2-9_____ Good thing Tim Walsh just got a new contract extension
  14.Portland State________0-8_____1-10____ The days of Barney-Gumble-Ball are coming to an end

So you’re saying we lose to UNI and Western Illinois. I’m guessing your four losses are Sac State, Idaho, SUU and MSU?

[Mvemjsunpx]

So you’re saying we lose to UNI and Western Illinois. I’m guessing your four losses are Sac State, Idaho, SUU and MSU?

Almost right: I have UM losing to NoDak instead of MSU.

[kalm]

Very bold and great stuff as usual!

I do think you have both Montana’s too low.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Very bold and great stuff as usual!

Thanks!

I do think you have both Montana’s too low.

I'm curious as to why. The Griz just have too many unknowns (including Josh Buss's health, which doesn't sound good), while the Bobcats just don't seem to have any firepower without Chris Murray's running.

[SACCAT]

• 1. Eastern Washington__8-0_____9-2_____ Good thing the NAU game doesn't count
  2. Sacramento State ____7-1_____9-2 _____ They're the best team on paper. Can they avoid choking?
  3. Northern Arizona ____7-1____10-1_____ The 'Jacks aren't really this good, but their schedule is like hitting the lottery
  4. Weber State__________6-2_____8-3_____ A tough league start, but after that things are pretty favorable
  5. Idaho State __________5-3_____6-5_____ Can the Bengals actually get a winning record? With that schedule, they should
  6. Montana _____________4-4_____5-6_____ An unnecessary rebuild begins…
  7. UC Davis ____________4-4_____6-5_____ Their passing game is deadly, but everything else is mediocre
  8. Montana State_______4-4_____5-6_____ Here comes Jeff Choate's 10-year contract extension
  9. Idaho________________4-4_____5-6_____ The Vandals just lost too much on offense to be good
  10.Southern Utah _______2-6_____3-8_____ The T-Birds are only good in odd-numbered years
  11.Northern Colorado___2-6_____2-9_____ The Bears aren't really this bad, but their schedule is like repeated kicks in the nuts
  12.North Dakota ________2-6_____3-8_____ I don't think their lack of auto-bid eligibility is really going to matter this year
  13.Cal Poly _____________1-7_____2-9_____ Good thing Tim Walsh just got a new contract extension
  14.Portland State________0-8_____1-10____ The days of Barney-Gumble-Ball are coming to an end

You have Davis at 6-5 behind UM at 5-6...

[SeattleGriz]

• 1. Eastern Washington__8-0_____9-2_____ Good thing the NAU game doesn't count
  2. Sacramento State ____7-1_____9-2 _____ They're the best team on paper. Can they avoid choking?
  3. Northern Arizona ____7-1____10-1_____ The 'Jacks aren't really this good, but their schedule is like hitting the lottery
  4. Weber State__________6-2_____8-3_____ A tough league start, but after that things are pretty favorable
  5. Idaho State __________5-3_____6-5_____ Can the Bengals actually get a winning record? With that schedule, they should
  6. Montana _____________4-4_____5-6_____ An unnecessary rebuild begins…
  7. UC Davis ____________4-4_____6-5_____ Their passing game is deadly, but everything else is mediocre
  8. Montana State_______4-4_____5-6_____ Here comes Jeff Choate's 10-year contract extension
  9. Idaho________________4-4_____5-6_____ The Vandals just lost too much on offense to be good
  10.Southern Utah _______2-6_____3-8_____ The T-Birds are only good in odd-numbered years
  11.Northern Colorado___2-6_____2-9_____ The Bears aren't really this bad, but their schedule is like repeated kicks in the nuts
  12.North Dakota ________2-6_____3-8_____ I don't think their lack of auto-bid eligibility is really going to matter this year
  13.Cal Poly _____________1-7_____2-9_____ Good thing Tim Walsh just got a new contract extension
  14.Portland State________0-8_____1-10____ The days of Barney-Gumble-Ball are coming to an end

Interesting to see you say unnecessary rebuild for the Griz. I feel the same.

[AZGrizFan]

• 1. Eastern Washington__8-0_____9-2_____ Good thing the NAU game doesn't count
  2. Sacramento State ____7-1_____9-2 _____ They're the best team on paper. Can they avoid choking?
  3. Northern Arizona ____7-1____10-1_____ The 'Jacks aren't really this good, but their schedule is like hitting the lottery
  4. Weber State__________6-2_____8-3_____ A tough league start, but after that things are pretty favorable
  5. Idaho State __________5-3_____6-5_____ Can the Bengals actually get a winning record? With that schedule, they should
  6. Montana _____________4-4_____5-6_____ An unnecessary rebuild begins…
  7. UC Davis ____________4-4_____6-5_____ Their passing game is deadly, but everything else is mediocre
  8. Montana State_______4-4_____5-6_____ Here comes Jeff Choate's 10-year contract extension
  9. Idaho________________4-4_____5-6_____ The Vandals just lost too much on offense to be good
  10.Southern Utah _______2-6_____3-8_____ The T-Birds are only good in odd-numbered years
  11.Northern Colorado___2-6_____2-9_____ The Bears aren't really this bad, but their schedule is like repeated kicks in the nuts
  12.North Dakota ________2-6_____3-8_____ I don't think their lack of auto-bid eligibility is really going to matter this year
  13.Cal Poly _____________1-7_____2-9_____ Good thing Tim Walsh just got a new contract extension
  14.Portland State________0-8_____1-10____ The days of Barney-Gumble-Ball are coming to an end

You have Davis at 6-5 behind UM at 5-6...

Guess he thinks Griz beat UCD heads up?

[AZGrizFan]

So you’re saying we lose to UNI and Western Illinois. I’m guessing your four losses are Sac State, Idaho, SUU and MSU?

Almost right: I have UM losing to NoDak instead of MSU.

So we’re losing to SUU and that’s going to be one of only two conference wins for SUU? You really think we’re going to be THAT bad?

[SDHornet]

Bold predictions Mvem. Hornets schedule is incredibly tougher than the one last year, that said we return a lot and I have this as a "playoffs or bust" season for us. I do think 9-2 is overly optimistic, I haven't sat down and gone through it thoroughly like you have but I think we see 8 wins max.

Also I don't think CP will be garbage like they were last year. I think they finish bottom of the middle in the BSC. I think Idalol will be better too...can't really explain why, maybe just thinking former FBS bias on "better" talent on the roster. Meh.

Great work on this though.

[SuperHornet]

I like what SD says here, but I'm more than a little optimistic. Our fellow Hornet fans seem to be in a "wait and see" phase due to history over the last 25 years or so. I see the following:

Sac 11-0/8-0
*EWU 10-1/8-0
UM 9-2/6-2
BBQ 9-2/6-2
NAU 8-3/5-3
MSU 8-3/5-3
CP 7-4/4-4
ISU 7-4/4-4
Idalol 6-5/4-4
SUU 5-6/3-5
PSU 4-7/3-5
UND 4-7/3-5
UNC 2-9/0-8
Manure Pile 0-11/0-8

*Autobid

[Mvemjsunpx]

You have Davis at 6-5 behind UM at 5-6...

Guess he thinks Griz beat UCD heads up?

I used the correct tiebreakers: UM would be 2-1, Davis & MSU both 1-1 (they don't play each other), & Idaho 1-2—I have the home team winning all matchups between the four.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Almost right: I have UM losing to NoDak instead of MSU.

So we’re losing to SUU and that’s going to be one of only two conference wins for SUU? You really think we’re going to be THAT bad?

I think the Griz are a little better than NoDak, but UND's home-field advantage is pretty strong.

SUU will likely be better than their record since their schedule is pretty brutal. Aside from PSU & maybe Cal Poly, there aren't really any weak teams in the Big Sky. As a result, some middling teams are going to end up with lousy records.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Bold predictions Mvem. Hornets schedule is incredibly tougher than the one last year, that said we return a lot and I have this as a "playoffs or bust" season for us. I do think 9-2 is overly optimistic, I haven't sat down and gone through it thoroughly like you have but I think we see 8 wins max.

Also I don't think CP will be garbage like they were last year. I think they finish bottom of the middle in the BSC. I think Idalol will be better too...can't really explain why, maybe just thinking former FBS bias on "better" talent on the roster. Meh.

Great work on this though.

Thanks for reading!

I don't think Sac's schedule is all that daunting. The only games they should be an underdog in, IMO, are San Diego State & Weber. They probably will be considered an underdog @ Montana, but I'm not sure they should be. The Hornets also get NAU at home at a time when NAU should be ripe for a loss. The real reason to be skeptical on Sac, IMO, is what happened the last time they were projected playoff contenders in 2011.

As for Cal Poly… they lost a ton on defense. Their O should be better than last year (though still not as good as previous seasons), but I don't see their D being much better than PSU's.

Idaho's a little tougher to project, of course, but I don't believe the Sun Belt is much better than the Big Sky. The Vandals went 4-8 and didn't beat anyone good in FBS last year. They also lost most of their key offensive "skill" position players and the replacements will have to play behind an O-Line that allowed 50 sacks. Idaho's D will probably be one of the better ones in the league, but only a handful of Big Sky defenses figure to be above average so that's not real impressive. In addition, morale could suffer because it's quite apparent head-coach Paul Petrino wants nothing to do with FCS.

[AZGrizFan]

I would be absolutely fascinated to know which 5 league games you think ISU is winning. I see TWO.

[Mvemjsunpx]

I would be absolutely fascinated to know which 5 league games you think ISU is winning. I see TWO.

Idaho, MSU, @ PSU, @ Cal Poly, @ NoDak (ISU seems to play well against UND, for whatever reason).

The Bengals aren't too good on defense or on the O-Line, but they're loaded at QB, RB, and WR.

[SDHornet]

Bold predictions Mvem. Hornets schedule is incredibly tougher than the one last year, that said we return a lot and I have this as a "playoffs or bust" season for us. I do think 9-2 is overly optimistic, I haven't sat down and gone through it thoroughly like you have but I think we see 8 wins max.

Also I don't think CP will be garbage like they were last year. I think they finish bottom of the middle in the BSC. I think Idalol will be better too...can't really explain why, maybe just thinking former FBS bias on "better" talent on the roster. Meh.

Great work on this though.

Thanks for reading!

I don't think Sac's schedule is all that daunting. The only games they should be an underdog in, IMO, are San Diego State & Weber. They probably will be considered an underdog @ Montana, but I'm not sure they should be. The Hornets also get NAU at home at a time when NAU should be ripe for a loss. The real reason to be skeptical on Sac, IMO, is what happened the last time they were projected playoff contenders in 2011.

As for Cal Poly… they lost a ton on defense. Their O should be better than last year (though still not as good as previous seasons), but I don't see their D being much better than PSU's.

Idaho's a little tougher to project, of course, but I don't believe the Sun Belt is much better than the Big Sky. The Vandals went 4-8 and didn't beat anyone good in FBS last year. They also lost most of their key offensive "skill" position players and the replacements will have to play behind an O-Line that allowed 50 sacks. Idaho's D will probably be one of the better ones in the league, but only a handful of Big Sky defenses figure to be above average so that's not real impressive. In addition, morale could suffer because it's quite apparent head-coach Paul Petrino wants nothing to do with FCS.

Well like 2011 this season also has 3 straight road games early on which is part of what I was referring to above. If I recall Fleming went down mid-season which really derailed things, similarly if Thomson goes down all is lost this season. This season the 3rd straight game is in Missoula which imo will tell us if the Hornets are really contenders.

CP gets Prethroe (sp?) back at FB. That alone should help their offense drastically (assuming he stays healthy) as now defenses will actually have to respect the dive. That in turn will also keep drives alive keeping pressure off the defense. I’m not saying CP will be the team they were just a few years ago, just not the steaming pile of dogshit they were a season ago.

No arguments from me on Idalol.

[Mvemjsunpx]

CP gets Prethroe (sp?) back at FB. That alone should help their offense drastically (assuming he stays healthy) as now defenses will actually have to respect the dive. That in turn will also keep drives alive keeping pressure off the defense. I’m not saying CP will be the team they were just a few years ago, just not the steaming pile of dogshit they were a season ago.

They get Protheroe back, but they lost his replacement, Jared Mohamed, who had 1172 yards last year. They also don't have much experience at slot back.

[Bill Lumbergh]

I would be absolutely fascinated to know which 5 league games you think ISU is winning. I see TWO.

Idaho, MSU, @ PSU, @ Cal Poly, @ NoDak (ISU seems to play well against UND, for whatever reason).

The Bengals aren't too good on defense or on the O-Line, but they're loaded at QB, RB, and WR.

Yeeeeaaaahhhhhhh....I think I’m gonna have to go ahead and disagree with you on that one....yeahhhhhh....

[SDHornet]

CP gets Prethroe (sp?) back at FB. That alone should help their offense drastically (assuming he stays healthy) as now defenses will actually have to respect the dive. That in turn will also keep drives alive keeping pressure off the defense. I’m not saying CP will be the team they were just a few years ago, just not the steaming pile of dogshit they were a season ago.

They get Protheroe back, but they lost his replacement, Jared Mohamed, who had 1172 yards last year. They also don't have much experience at slot back.

If Protheroe stays healthy, he'll get most of the carries over whoever his backup will be so I think the Mohamed loss is only an issue if Protheroe goes down.

[css75]

I am glad I am not the only one who thinks ISU can have a winning season. Offensively they could be very good with a very strong running game and a 4 year starter at QB. 3 experienced receivers are also back. Defense could be an issue, but optimism runs high here.


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[BDKJMU]

I like what SD says here, but I'm more than a little optimistic. Our fellow Hornet fans seem to be in a "wait and see" phase due to history over the last 25 years or so. I see the following:

Sac 11-0/8-0
*EWU 10-1/8-0
UM 9-2/6-2
BBQ 9-2/6-2
NAU 8-3/5-3
MSU 8-3/5-3
CP 7-4/4-4
ISU 7-4/4-4
Idalol 6-5/4-4
SUU 5-6/3-5
PSU 4-7/3-5
UND 4-7/3-5
UNC 2-9/0-8
Manure Pile 0-11/0-8
*Autobid

Impossible for BS teams to go 59-53 in conference play. From among the 14 teams you have to take away 3 conference wins, and add 3 losses. The total has to = 56 and 56.

You could probably add the 3 losses on those top 6, because obviously you’re not going to have 6 teams with 8 or more wins lol.

[css75]

I like what SD says here, but I'm more than a little optimistic. Our fellow Hornet fans seem to be in a "wait and see" phase due to history over the last 25 years or so. I see the following:

Sac 7-4/5-3
*EWU 10-1/8-0
UM 9-2/6-2
BBQ 9-2/6-2
NAU 8-3/5-3
MSU 8-3/5-3
CP 7-4/4-4
ISU 7-4/4-4
Idalol 6-5/4-4
SUU 5-6/3-5
PSU 4-7/3-5
UND 4-7/3-5
UNC 2-9/0-8
Manure Pile 0-11/0-8
*Autobid

Impossible for BS teams to go 59-53 in conference play. From among the 14 teams you have to take away 3 conference wins, and add 3 losses. The total has to = 56 and 56.

You could probably add the 3 losses on those top 6, because obviously you’re not going to have 6 teams with 8 or more wins lol.

I fixed it for him.



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[BDKJMU]

I see the BS coaches’ and media pre season polls both have EWU/Weber/NAU 1-2-3, and is that correct that Montama plays none of them