How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Political discussions

How long will the shutdown last?

Poll ended at Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:15 pm

Less than a week (open by Dec 28)
3
10%
1 to <2 weeks (open by Jan 4)
2
7%
2 to <3 weeks (open by Jan 11)
5
17%
3 to <4 weeks (open by Jan 18)
2
7%
4 to <5 weeks (open by Jan 25)
0
No votes
5 to <6 weeks (open by Feb 2)
3
10%
6 or more weeks
14
48%
 
Total votes: 29

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby dbackjon » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:38 pm

AZGrizFan wrote:
dbackjon wrote:
I care. Many care. It clears and destroys some of the best habitat in South Texas, and creates a wildlife/migrational barrier. Wildlife viewing contributes billions of dollars to South Texas and southern Arizona yearly. Trump's folly will harm that.

And your wide swathes of the border that Americans can't go? BULLFUCKING SHIT. I have many friends that bird the border areas constantly. Never afraid to go down there. You are falling for more of Trump's and whatever extremist rightwing sites you frequent's lies.


I’ve seen the signs 60-80 miles deep into America. With my own two eyes, Jon. I’ve been there. I’ve seen the coyote trails and trash. It has nothing to do with any imaginary websites or anything Trump says. The fact that YOU want to ignore it can’t be helped. But it’s a true statement.


That's quite different than what you said. You said there were wide swaths of America, up to 60-80 miles from the Border where Americans couldn't go. And that is an absolute BS statement.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby HI54UNI » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:52 pm

Saw an interesting theory being bantered about on the interwebs -

Trump stands firm and Dems cave prior to the SOTU address on the 29th. Dems cannot risk Trump going on national TV in front of Congress and calling them out. Imagine the shitshow of Trump calling out Nancy with her sitting right behind him. Or Trump turning around, looking Nancy in the eye and offering some type of reasonable deal, like DACA for the wall, that they are currently refusing and challenging her to accept with the whole world watching.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby SDHornet » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:09 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
SDHornet wrote:And just like that Hogan clubs JSO like a baby seal on a jap fishing boat. :rofl:

AZ and CID really ripping the tits off this thread.

Trump just needs to trade DACA for wall funding and when Pelosi and Shumer reject it, he wins bigly with Team Brown. :coffee:


Except that I didn't say anything about right or wrong. I just said the Republicans are losing the public relations battle right now. And I'm correct.

Now, if you want to talk about right and wrong: I do think it's wrong for ANY President to do something like this. I thought it was wrong for Clinton to do it. I thought it was wrong for Obama to do it. It's an extortion tactic. And it's especially bad when the majority of the People don't even want to do what the President wants to do.

There's also the thing where Trump said Mexico was going to pay for it and wrote a memo with a specific plan about that.

If Trump wants his wall at this point he should straight up admit that it's not going to work out like he wanted. Mexico is not going to directly pay for it. Then he should make the case for why US taxpayers should pay for it, why we need one, etc. He shouldn't be doing this when it's not how he said it would happen and it's clear that a majority don't want a wall.

tldr;

Shorten it up or I won't bother to read it.

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby SDHornet » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:09 pm

Ivytalk wrote:
CID1990 wrote:

There's an easier way at the NYT?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No. I was thinking consulting for Bain or someone. NYT pays dick.

Ha, you said dick.

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby SDHornet » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:10 pm

HI54UNI wrote:Saw an interesting theory being bantered about on the interwebs -

Trump stands firm and Dems cave prior to the SOTU address on the 29th. Dems cannot risk Trump going on national TV in front of Congress and calling them out. Imagine the shitshow of Trump calling out Nancy with her sitting right behind him. Or Trump turning around, looking Nancy in the eye and offering some type of reasonable deal, like DACA for the wall, that they are currently refusing and challenging her to accept with the whole world watching.

Boy that would be amazing entertainment if that happens. :nod: :lol: :clap:

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Ibanez » Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:58 am

Col Hogan wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:Ok if there was any reasonable doubt as to who is on the short end of the stick in terms of public opinion on this thing right now it's gone. The "gold standard" polling effort has weighed in and the Republicans are clearly underwater. As noted before, I pay particular attention to ABC News/Washington Post polls. To review: It is one of only 6 polls among the 396 graded by 538 to receive Grade A+. Among the A+ rated polls it has the smallest average departure from the actual results in political races (2.9 percentage points off one way or another on average). It has a very small bias (0 is no bias and it's got a 0.6 to the Democrat side).

Now it's reported results of a poll it conducted January 8 - 11. + or - 4.5 percentage point margin of error.

53 percent of respondents blamed Trump and the Republicans for the shutdown, 29 percent blamed Democrats, and 13 percent blamed both. Advantage Democrats.

79 percent said the shutdown will be either a crisis (38%) or a serious problem (41%) if it continues for several months. Only 19% said it would either be a minor problem (18%) or not a problem at all (1%). So the Rush Limbaugh argument that a government shutdown is no big deal is not gaining traction.

54% said they oppose building a wall along the US border with Mexico while 42% said they support doing it. So the Republicans are dug in on the basis of trying to do something most people don't want. Well...the "most people" thing is close because if you take the margin of error into account it could be 49.5% opposing. But best case scenario for the "build the wall" position taking the margin of error into account is 49.5% opposing and 46.5% supporting so it's underwater. And at the other extreme it could be as bad as 58.5% opposing vs. 37.5% supporting. "Build the wall" is not a position supported by the public.

The best news for Republicans is that, among respondents who oppose the wall or have no opinion on it, 45% think the Democrats should compromise vs. 48% think they should just outright refuse to fund it. That's a statistical tie. 52% of those that support the wall or have no opinion on it think Trump should demand wall funding vs. 41% who think he should compromise. However, it all works out to only 24% of ALL respondents thinking Trump should demand funding for the wall in the context of a situation in which, by a 25 percentage point margin, more blamed Trump and the Republicans for a shutdown that 79% think will be a crisis or a serious problem if it continues.

Things can change at any time. I've seen public opinion change rapidly before. But right now there is no question that the Democrats are winning the public relations battle. Or at least they were through January 11.

If you're interested the subject poll is at: https://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/ ... 2019/2354/


If you were around about 1774, you’d present the argument that a revolution against the British was wrong because most colonists were opposed...

If you were around in the 1850’s, you argue the abolitionists were wrong because most Northerners did not really support that radical idea...

You’d have been the guy in the late-1930’s who argued against strengthening the military because a majority of Americans were opposed to getting involved in any foreign issues...

:lol: :clap:

We do have the benefit of hindsight in your 3 examples but I understand the point you're making.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby kalm » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:11 am

Ibanez wrote:
Col Hogan wrote:
If you were around about 1774, you’d present the argument that a revolution against the British was wrong because most colonists were opposed...

If you were around in the 1850’s, you argue the abolitionists were wrong because most Northerners did not really support that radical idea...

You’d have been the guy in the late-1930’s who argued against strengthening the military because a majority of Americans were opposed to getting involved in any foreign issues...

:lol: :clap:

We do have the benefit of hindsight in your 3 examples but I understand the point you're making.


That legal immigration is on level with the oppression of the British and slavery, and equals the threat of Nazi Germany?
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Ibanez » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:15 am

kalm wrote:
Ibanez wrote: :lol: :clap:

We do have the benefit of hindsight in your 3 examples but I understand the point you're making.


That legal immigration is on level with the oppression of the British and slavery, and equals the threat of Nazi Germany?

No - that just because public opinion sways one way, that doesn't mean that's the correct mentality.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Grizalltheway » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:27 am

Ibanez wrote:
kalm wrote:
That legal immigration is on level with the oppression of the British and slavery, and equals the threat of Nazi Germany?

No - that just because public opinion sways one way, that doesn't mean that's the correct mentality.

But there's also the other point that kalm pointed out. :coffee:

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby 93henfan » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:38 am

Feeler: How much will you each contribute to a "Keep 93henfan Alive" GoFundMe if I start one?

Please keep your political rants out of this. This is a matter of survival. I'm down to two cans of Hormel chili w/ beans a day now. Pretty soon it'll just be one. I stopped feeding my cat. I let her out to forage for mice and birds. In the snow.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby 93henfan » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:44 am

93henfan wrote:Feeler: How much will you each contribute to a "Keep 93henfan Alive" GoFundMe if I start one?

Please keep your political rants out of this. This is a matter of survival. I'm down to two cans of Hormel chili w/ beans a day now. Pretty soon it'll just be one. I stopped feeding my cat. I let her out to forage for mice and birds. In the snow.


Bump.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Ibanez » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:47 am

Grizalltheway wrote:
Ibanez wrote:No - that just because public opinion sways one way, that doesn't mean that's the correct mentality.

But there's also the other point that kalm pointed out. :coffee:

No because Hogans rebuttal was on public opinion and if we had listened to the public we would've kept slaves or never rebelled against England. It wasn't trying to equate all those things where the public opinion was wrong.


At least that isn't how I interpreted it.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Ibanez » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:48 am

93henfan wrote:Feeler: How much will you each contribute to a "Keep 93henfan Alive" GoFundMe if I start one?

Please keep your political rants out of this. This is a matter of survival. I'm down to two cans of Hormel chili w/ beans a day now. Pretty soon it'll just be one. I stopped feeding my cat. I let her out to forage for mice and birds. In the snow.

$6.93.

Or a can of Spam.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby 93henfan » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:50 am

Ibanez wrote:
93henfan wrote:Feeler: How much will you each contribute to a "Keep 93henfan Alive" GoFundMe if I start one?

Please keep your political rants out of this. This is a matter of survival. I'm down to two cans of Hormel chili w/ beans a day now. Pretty soon it'll just be one. I stopped feeding my cat. I let her out to forage for mice and birds. In the snow.

$6.93.

Or a can of Spam.


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I'll need more than that. Not worth my time setting it up unless you all are willing to step up to the plate.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Ibanez » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:53 am

93henfan wrote:
Ibanez wrote:$6.93.

Or a can of Spam.


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I'll need more than that. Not worth my time setting it up unless you all are willing to step up to the plate.
Ok ok. I can see you're really hurting. How about
$69.30, three cans of SPAM, two cans of Vienna Sausage, 7 packets of mustard, ketchup and mayonnaise (each), some hand warmers (not to exceed 5) and a Life Straw.


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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby 93henfan » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:54 am

Is there a resale market for life straws?
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Ibanez » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:54 am

93henfan wrote:Is there a resale market for life straws?

Sure.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby 93henfan » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:37 am

Ibanez wrote:
93henfan wrote:Is there a resale market for life straws?

Sure.


I need five of them then.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Ibanez » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:38 am

93henfan wrote:
Ibanez wrote:Sure.


I need five of them then.

I'll give you 5 straws and some charcoal.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby ∞∞∞ » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:41 am

If you need help and aren't being sarcastic, then most definitely.

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby CAA Flagship » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:42 am

93henfan wrote:Feeler: How much will you each contribute to a "Keep 93henfan Alive" GoFundMe if I start one?

Please keep your political rants out of this. This is a matter of survival. I'm down to two cans of Hormel chili w/ beans a day now. Pretty soon it'll just be one. I stopped feeding my cat. I let her out to forage for mice and birds. In the snow.

I can't offer money, but can offer this:
- Used Redskins gear to keep you warm
- Ticket to a Wizards game
- A Home Depot receipt for a cordless drill (All you need is a drill and you can return it for cash)
- Rick Lovato autographed mini-football. Might be worth $5 in Philly or $7.50 in Norfolk.
- $1.00 off coupon for a hoagie at Wawa

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Ibanez » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:45 am

CAA Flagship wrote:
93henfan wrote:Feeler: How much will you each contribute to a "Keep 93henfan Alive" GoFundMe if I start one?

Please keep your political rants out of this. This is a matter of survival. I'm down to two cans of Hormel chili w/ beans a day now. Pretty soon it'll just be one. I stopped feeding my cat. I let her out to forage for mice and birds. In the snow.

I can't offer money, but can offer this:
- Used Redskins gear to keep you warm
- Ticket to a Wizards game
- A Home Depot receipt for a cordless drill (All you need is a drill and you can return it for cash)
- Rick Lovato autographed mini-football. Might be worth $5 in Philly or $7.50 in Norfolk.
- $1.00 off coupon for a hoagie at Wawa

That's generous.

I'll throw in a collection of newspapers my grandmother had so you can keep warm. They range from 1946-2010 so you should have plenty to to keep you warm for a while.

I'll be sending you this book for entertainment.

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby JohnStOnge » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:54 am

HI54UNI wrote:Saw an interesting theory being bantered about on the interwebs -

Trump stands firm and Dems cave prior to the SOTU address on the 29th. Dems cannot risk Trump going on national TV in front of Congress and calling them out. Imagine the shitshow of Trump calling out Nancy with her sitting right behind him. Or Trump turning around, looking Nancy in the eye and offering some type of reasonable deal, like DACA for the wall, that they are currently refusing and challenging her to accept with the whole world watching.


The risk for the Republicans in that is that it's highly likely Trump is going to stand up there and once again lie a lot. Then the mainstream media are going to call him out on all the lies. And that's going to be the big story. Yes, I know he's been successful with hard core conservatives in discrediting the mainstream media. But the majority of the population believes the mainstream media more than Trump.

The most recent poll I found with a quick search on that is a Qunnipiac poll described at https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... than-trump and was conducted during September. However, there was an interesting Washington Post poll conducted during mid December that showed most people don't believe claims made by Trump. The interesting thing about the way they did it is that they just showed people statements without identifying who made them. That poll is described at https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... 4347505578.

The good news coming from that last poll is that Trump's misinformation campaign isn't working with the public at large. Yes it's working with Republicans. But Republicans, as of Gallup's most recent poll on party trends during December 3 through 12, are only 26% of the population. If the Republican politicians want to continue to alienate the majority of the People in order to maintain solid support among about a 4th of the population they are free to do so, but I don't know how that's going to work out for them in the long run.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby 93henfan » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:58 am

CAA Flagship wrote:
93henfan wrote:Feeler: How much will you each contribute to a "Keep 93henfan Alive" GoFundMe if I start one?

Please keep your political rants out of this. This is a matter of survival. I'm down to two cans of Hormel chili w/ beans a day now. Pretty soon it'll just be one. I stopped feeding my cat. I let her out to forage for mice and birds. In the snow.

I can't offer money, but can offer this:
- Used Redskins gear to keep you warm
- Ticket to a Wizards game
- A Home Depot receipt for a cordless drill (All you need is a drill and you can return it for cash)
- Rick Lovato autographed mini-football. Might be worth $5 in Philly or $7.50 in Norfolk.
- $1.00 off coupon for a hoagie at Wawa


Ooooh, the Wizards?!?!
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby 93henfan » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:01 am

∞∞∞ wrote:If you need help and aren't being sarcastic, then most definitely.


Total sarcasm. Well, until probably April or May.

But by all means, help out any new federal employees who have student loans and DC area rent/mortgage and not many years to establish a nest egg. I feel bad for them. We just had a girl join our agency in that situation. She is sweating bullets and calling creditors right now. Good chance she leaves the civil service is this carries on another couple of weeks.
Last edited by 93henfan on Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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