How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

[SDHornet]

Thought 93 would enjoy

[SDHornet]

Its our land and we have **** laws to follow. It should be do it or go out cold.

This problem is easily fixed if you are not a **** pussy. Trump gets it and is gonna get it fixed.

Lock up a few employers and the "problem" disappears overnight. Then you have nobody to work at Mar-a-Lago.

This.

[mainejeff]

Republicans want to destroy Democrats and Trump wants to destroy government/America. This is vengeful theater at its best....too bad so many real people are being hurt.

So did you say the same thing when Conks only controlled the House under Obama and a Donk controlled Senate?

Asking for a friend.

So you do admit that all they care about is destroying Democrats and all Trump cares about is going on his Life Revenge Tour against government and America?

P.S. - Tell your friend to fuck off.

[SDHornet]

So did you say the same thing when Conks only controlled the House under Obama and a Donk controlled Senate?

Asking for a friend.

So you do admit that all they care about is destroying Democrats and all Trump cares about is going on his Life Revenge Tour against government and America?

P.S. - Tell your friend to fuck off.

Both sides are playing team over country. Not sure why anyone with a brain is trying to pin all the blame on one side...oh look who I'm talking too.

[UNI88]

So 93, any chance there will be opportunities for employment if people in need of cash bail and find other jobs and aren't available when the shutdown ends? Enterprising and opportunistic individuals looking for gainful employment want to know.

[93henfan]

So 93, any chance there will be opportunities for employment if people in need of cash bail and find other jobs and aren't available when the shutdown ends? Enterprising and opportunistic individuals looking for gainful employment want to know.

https://www.usajobs.gov/

Your post brought up an interesting point that I have been trying unsuccessfully to get an answer to for several days. I was thinking about maybe jumping to DoD, who is still working, and who I'd rather get back to working for anyway....

If I took a DoD job again, would I still get back pay at my current job? Nobody seems to know.

[93henfan]

Thought 93 would enjoy

Sorry I missed that post. She's really intelligent.

And by intelligent, I mean "nice rack."

She's another one of those geniuses who can't tell the difference between a Congressperson on the dole and a regular federal employee. Oh, and we pay taxes too, snowflake.

[Ivytalk]

Hey, 93, Trump says you’re a “patriot” for doing without your check!

[93henfan]

Hey, 93, Trump says you’re a “patriot” for doing without your check!

Thanks.

I'm looking forward to the back pay. I'll be getting that, a step increase from January, as well as hopefully a raise courtesy of the Democrats, against his intended freeze. It'll be my first five-figure paycheck.

It'll go nicely with my tax return. I think I'll pay off the car.

I decided to heed SDHornet's advice and just enjoy my vacation.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

I wish I could get paid for not working, I would like some of my tax dollars back.............oh wait

[93henfan]

I wish I could get paid for not working, I would like some of my tax dollars back.............oh wait

It's awesome! When your President signed back pay for us, that relieved a lot of the stress. For a couple of weeks there, we thought he hated us too. But he realizes how important we are and that it's only right to pay us. Cool beans.

I've never been happier to be non-essential!

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

Trump fucks everyone sometimes

[Rob Iola]

I wish I could get paid for not working, I would like some of my tax dollars back.............oh wait

It's awesome! When your President signed back pay for us, that relieved a lot of the stress. For a couple of weeks there, we thought he hated us too. But he realizes how important we are and that it's only right to pay us. Cool beans.

I've never been happier to be non-essential!

Speaking of which, does the Prez plan to sign a similar order repaying the po' folk for any missed SNAP payments, if the shutdown drags into March?

[BDKJMU]

Barely. Last Sunday WaPo/ABC has 54% opposed to a “wall”, 42% approve. How the question is asked, and what is included/omitted can make a big difference. Change “wall” to “fence” or “physical barrier” and approval would increase (ever heard the term “fences make good neighbors”?). .Just like more people will approve of protecting wetlands versus a swamp, a rain forest versus a jungle, etc. Can’t find any recent poll that asks about a “physical barrier” or “fence”. They all use “wall”.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... -high-poll

I’d like to see a poll of likely voters, do you approve/disaprove of additonal “physical barrier” to the current 700+ miles already in place.

It's hard to model "likely voters" when there is no election imminent. The most recent poll I've seen that provides wording other than "wall" is a Harvard/Harris poll conducted December 24 - 25 just after the shutdown started. It's at https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-conten ... opline.pdf.

It asked the question of registered voters in two different ways. It does have the question "Do you support building a security barrier on the Mexican border?" 54% of respondents answered "No" vs. 46% who answered "Yes."

It also asked the question: "Do you support building a wall on the Mexican border?" 56% answered "No" and 44% answered "yes."

So using "barrier" instead of "wall" made some difference. But not all that much.

There are another two questions that I think were interesting in terms of response. One was this:

"The House of Representatives passed a continuing resolution that had $5 billion of boarder wall and security but the Democrats in the Senate blocked it, saying they will not fund the barrier the president wants, triggering the partial shutdown. Do you think that the Democrats should fund the $5 billion for the border security or not?"

55% answered "Should not fund" while 45% answered "Should fund."

Then there is the distribution of answers to this question:

"Do you think Donald Trump should give in and withdraw his demand for 5 billion for the border security?"

58% said "Trump should give in" while 42% said "Should not give in."

There are distributions of answers to questions in another poll of registered voters, one conducted by Qunnipiac during January 9 - 13, that kind of reflect the same general distribution of sentiment. That poll is at https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/u ... tsc21.pdf/. One question is this:

" As you may know, Democrats in Congress have proposed opening the parts of the government that have nothing to do with border security while continuing to negotiate funding for the wall. President Trump has not agreed. Do you support or oppose this proposal?"

63% said "Support" while 30% said "Oppose."

Another question from that poll:

"Do you support or oppose building a wall along the border with Mexico?"

55% said "Oppose" while 43% said "Support."

Nothing I've seen in subsequent polls suggests a detectable change in the general distribution of sentiment.
Things could change with public opinion at any time. Maybe we'll soon see evidence that Trump helped himself with his presentation today. But Trump has clearly been on the short end of the public opinion stick. Voters may not oppose the wall by an overwhelming margin but it's a solid margin. And it's the majority. Trump has clearly pushing for something that has been against the wishes of the majority of the voters. And things haven't changed much over time. Exit polling during the 2016 Presidential election had those who voted opposing a building a wall along the border by 54% to 41%. It did have reference to building a wall along the "entire" border and maybe that had an impact. But the margin is very similar to what's seen in the Harvard and Qunnipiac polls taken during the past month.

The final thing is that the Harvard poll has 43% saying Trump is mostly to blame and 23% saying Democrats are mostly to blame. The Quinnipiac has it 56% Trump vs. 36% Democrats.

I just don't think he should be doing this during these circumstances. If the public supported his wall proposal he'd have a lot better shot and he wouldn't have to cause all this disruption. Focus on getting the public to support the proposal.

JFC, I come back after being gone 4+ months and see some things have’t changed...

[mainejeff]

It's hard to model "likely voters" when there is no election imminent. The most recent poll I've seen that provides wording other than "wall" is a Harvard/Harris poll conducted December 24 - 25 just after the shutdown started. It's at https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-conten ... opline.pdf.

It asked the question of registered voters in two different ways. It does have the question "Do you support building a security barrier on the Mexican border?" 54% of respondents answered "No" vs. 46% who answered "Yes."

It also asked the question: "Do you support building a wall on the Mexican border?" 56% answered "No" and 44% answered "yes."

So using "barrier" instead of "wall" made some difference. But not all that much.

There are another two questions that I think were interesting in terms of response. One was this:

"The House of Representatives passed a continuing resolution that had $5 billion of boarder wall and security but the Democrats in the Senate blocked it, saying they will not fund the barrier the president wants, triggering the partial shutdown. Do you think that the Democrats should fund the $5 billion for the border security or not?"

55% answered "Should not fund" while 45% answered "Should fund."

Then there is the distribution of answers to this question:

"Do you think Donald Trump should give in and withdraw his demand for 5 billion for the border security?"

58% said "Trump should give in" while 42% said "Should not give in."

There are distributions of answers to questions in another poll of registered voters, one conducted by Qunnipiac during January 9 - 13, that kind of reflect the same general distribution of sentiment. That poll is at https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/u ... tsc21.pdf/. One question is this:

" As you may know, Democrats in Congress have proposed opening the parts of the government that have nothing to do with border security while continuing to negotiate funding for the wall. President Trump has not agreed. Do you support or oppose this proposal?"

63% said "Support" while 30% said "Oppose."

Another question from that poll:

"Do you support or oppose building a wall along the border with Mexico?"

55% said "Oppose" while 43% said "Support."

Nothing I've seen in subsequent polls suggests a detectable change in the general distribution of sentiment.
Things could change with public opinion at any time. Maybe we'll soon see evidence that Trump helped himself with his presentation today. But Trump has clearly been on the short end of the public opinion stick. Voters may not oppose the wall by an overwhelming margin but it's a solid margin. And it's the majority. Trump has clearly pushing for something that has been against the wishes of the majority of the voters. And things haven't changed much over time. Exit polling during the 2016 Presidential election had those who voted opposing a building a wall along the border by 54% to 41%. It did have reference to building a wall along the "entire" border and maybe that had an impact. But the margin is very similar to what's seen in the Harvard and Qunnipiac polls taken during the past month.

The final thing is that the Harvard poll has 43% saying Trump is mostly to blame and 23% saying Democrats are mostly to blame. The Quinnipiac has it 56% Trump vs. 36% Democrats.

I just don't think he should be doing this during these circumstances. If the public supported his wall proposal he'd have a lot better shot and he wouldn't have to cause all this disruption. Focus on getting the public to support the proposal.

JFC, I come back after being gone 4+ months and see some things have’t changed...

Trump doesn't read either. It’s cool to be dumb and ignorant now.

[AZGrizFan]

That must make you the coolest motherfucker on the planet, MJ.

[mainejeff]

That must make you the coolest motherfucker on the planet, MJ.

I aspire to be just like you.

[houndawg]

I don’t know about that.

I think way too many people - Dems, Republicans, independents, everybody - are working from the assumption that Trump gives a flying fvck...

Either the GOP in the Senate has a rebellion, or Pelosi caves on the wall, but Trump isn’t going to cave. He can do this straight on until 2020.

Agree. Trump is in IDGAF mode. GOP Senate will cave. GOP have shown themselves to be pussies time and time again.

I think the DGAF mode is tempered by his self-image of being a great deal-maker. He wants to make a deal he can bloviate about and he wants to make that deal very badly.

[Grizalltheway]

Agree. Trump is in IDGAF mode. GOP Senate will cave. GOP have shown themselves to be pussies time and time again.

I think the DGAF mode is tempered by his self-image of being a great deal-maker. He wants to make a deal he can bloviate about and he wants to make that deal very badly.

*bigly

[mainejeff]

This shutdown will end very badly. I can't wait to see the MAGA cunts whining about how everything is so messed up after part of the government workforce quits so they can actually fiund a job that PAYS them. Everyone in DC will be scrambling to get things up and running. What a clusterfuck......one thing Donald Trump is GREAT at!

[css75]

That must make you the coolest motherfucker on the planet, MJ.

I aspire to be just like you.

Well, at least you have a somewhat decent goal.


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[CID1990]

This shutdown will end very badly. I can't wait to see the MAGA cunts whining about how everything is so messed up after part of the government workforce quits so they can actually fiund a job that PAYS them. Everyone in DC will be scrambling to get things up and running. What a ****......one thing Donald Trump is GREAT at!

Jeff - I’m not sure if you’re talking about the same DC I know

the only people who are truly adversely affected by this are the people who are furloughed

A couple weeks after this thing ends, everyone will have their back pay and we’ll be on to some other distraction

and then the park service will go back to pretending to clean the public toilets but not really


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[ALPHAGRIZ1]

This shutdown will end very badly. I can't wait to see the MAGA cunts whining about how everything is so messed up after part of the government workforce quits so they can actually fiund a job that PAYS them. Everyone in DC will be scrambling to get things up and running. What a clusterfuck......one thing Donald Trump is GREAT at!

Nobody will give a fuck about less government.

Government should only be there to protect our borders and provide some infrastructure. The rest should be left up to the states

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[mainejeff]

This shutdown will end very badly. I can't wait to see the MAGA cunts whining about how everything is so messed up after part of the government workforce quits so they can actually fiund a job that PAYS them. Everyone in DC will be scrambling to get things up and running. What a ****......one thing Donald Trump is GREAT at!

Jeff - I’m not sure if you’re talking about the same DC I know

the only people who are truly adversely affected by this are the people who are furloughed

A couple weeks after this thing ends, everyone will have their back pay and we’ll be on to some other distraction

and then the park service will go back to pretending to clean the public toilets but not really


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When does this end? 1 week? 1 month? 1 year? The longer this goes on.....the more economic & political consequences there will be.

[GannonFan]

the only people who are truly adversely affected by this are the people who are furloughed

A couple weeks after this thing ends, everyone will have their back pay and we’ll be on to some other distraction

I'd argue the furloughed people are not as impacted as the contractors and side business that the furloughed people actually use/visit. At least the ones on furlough will get all of their back pay for the days they missed working. It makes for an uncomfortable past month and however long this goes on, and in lots of cases I'm sure they're going to have issues making ends meet as there's only so much relief you can get from charity and other means. But the contractors and the businesses (restaurants) that have had their business stopped won't get any back pay.

But I do take your point that I doubt this will have a lasting impact on DC or the culture. Both parties are perfectly fine letting this happen or they would've written legislation before to prevent this or they would be actually working to end this now. Both parties want to win (and conversely want their opponents to be beaten in a humiliating fashion) - furloughed workers don't factor into any of that.