We aren't quite there with an "entirely after Trump's January 19 pitch" poll yet but we do have one now that at least contains a couple of days. It's a Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll conducted January 19 - 21. So the first day of polling was the day of the speech and the other two were after.
The poll report is at
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp- ... _12219.pdf
Here are some questions and responses:
Q20 Do you support or oppose building a wall with Mexico if American taxpayers have to pay for the wall?
Support 40%
Oppose 54%
Q21 As you may know, the federal government is currently in a shutdown. Who do you blame the most for the government shutdown: Donald Trump and the Republicans in Congress orDemocrats in Congress?
Donald Trump and the Republicans in Congress 55%
Democrats in Congress 43%
Q22 Would you support or oppose Congress voting today to re-open the government without funding the border wall?
Support 57%
Oppose 38%
Q23 Do you agree or disagree with President Trump that the government should be kept closed until he gets funding for the wall?
Agree 35%
Disagree 60%
The blame thing looks a little better for Trump and the Republicans than it's looked in most polls I'm aware of that were conducted before the pitch. But nothing else does. Most especially, respondents favored the Democrat position of re-opening government without funding for the wall and opposed Trump's position of keeping it closed until he gets wall funding by wide margins.
There were some other interesting things: Respondents favored every single one of nine Democrats asked about over Trump if each of them were running against Trump for President. That includes if Chuck Schumer or Nancy Pelosi were running for President. A majority of respondents, by 49% to 43%, said they'd rather have Hillary Clinton for President than Trump. A larger majority, by 53% to 43%, said they'd rather have Obama as President than have Trump. A plurality, 44%, thought Trump is the worst President of the past 40 years (starting with Carter).
In response to the question:
Do you think that Donald Trump has made America Great Again, or not?
38% said yes and 55% said no.
PPP is not among the best polls according to 538 but it's OK I think. 538 grades it B. It's had a slight bias, 0.3, towards the Democrat side with respect to elections.
We'll see what happens with subsequent polls. But there is hope for the Democrats that things are deteriorating for the Republicans. The next election is a long way off but this is an unprecedented situation. If things continue how they're going public opinion-wise I wonder how long the Republicans in Congress will hold on before feeling like they just HAVE to buck Trump. I suspect most of them are already pretty pissed off at him for putting the Republican Party in the position it's in right now. They can't say so if that's the case. But I sure would not be shocked to learn that's what's going on underneath.
One thing I'm wondering is if we'll start seeing some Republican office holders switch to the Democratic Party. You've got Senators who could act reasonably and very easily win a general election. But if they act reasonably they have to worry about losing in Republican primaries. I would not be surprised if some of them are thinking, "Enough of this nut job stuff."
