How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Political discussions

How long will the shutdown last?

Poll ended at Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:15 pm

Less than a week (open by Dec 28)
3
10%
1 to <2 weeks (open by Jan 4)
2
7%
2 to <3 weeks (open by Jan 11)
5
17%
3 to <4 weeks (open by Jan 18)
2
7%
4 to <5 weeks (open by Jan 25)
0
No votes
5 to <6 weeks (open by Feb 2)
3
10%
6 or more weeks
14
48%
 
Total votes: 29

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by Ibanez »

GannonFan wrote:I thought this was a good read from the BBC. I didn't actually realize we already have $1.7B in funding from a prior Congressional approval for the wall that we're just now building.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46824649
I found these interesting
In 2000, 1.6 million people were arrested trying to cross the border illegally, while last year that number was just under 400,000.
Image

So, last year we had less than 400k people cross over illegally but we have more Canadians staying illegally than the next two countries combined.

Trumps also holding over 1 M workers hostage (Fed and contractors) to solve what? It's not crossings. Everyone agrees that the legal ports of entry need the money, not new sections of a wall. Trump and his stupid fuck face base... :roll:
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by JohnStOnge »

Ok we now have a poll taken entirely after Trump's pitch and it suggests that he didn't move the needle. It's the YouGov poll. That poll has been indicating the "Build the Wall" position as less underwater than most polls have. So the important thing is to look at what it was saying in the past vs. what it said most recently after the pitch. The most recent previous implementation of the poll was January 12 - 15. The last one was taken January 20 - 22.

January 12 - 15 YouGov poll: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/c ... Report.pdf
January 20 - 22 YouGov poll: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/c ... Report.pdf

During the January 12 - 15 polling 49% of registered voter respondents said they opposed the wall while 44% said they supported it. YouGov got the same result during January 20 - 22. 49% opposed vs. 44% supporting.

During January 12 - 15 polling 51% of registered voter respondents thought Trump was most responsible for the shutdown while 39% thought Democrats in Congress were. During January 20 - 22 it was 53% Trump and 39% Democrats in Congress.

Both polls asked about how the shutdown should be resolved. During January 12 - 15 25% of respondents said the Democrats should give Trump what he wants on the wall while 41% said Trump should just accept the $1.6 billion the Democrats already offered on border security. During January 20 - 22 29% said the Democrats should give Trump what he wants while 42% said Trump should just accept what the Democrats already offered.

And the big bottom line one is this:

During the January 12 - 15 polling Trump was 7 percentage points down in overall job approval among registered voter respondents (52% disapprove vs. 45% approve). During January 20 - 22 he was 13 percentage points down (55% disapprove vs. 42% approve).

This is not working well for Trump and the Republicans. I heard today that their belief is that all this will fade before 2020 and that the most important thing is for them to "win" regardless of public opinion. But this is an unprecedented situation. We'll see if the Republicans are correct in thinking that taking a big public relations hit now won't haunt them in the future.
Last edited by JohnStOnge on Wed Jan 23, 2019 12:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by 93henfan »

Trump disapproval hits record high: https://morningconsult.com/2019/01/23/t ... -shutdown/
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by JohnStOnge »

Pelosi vs. Trump is woman vs. boy. Interesting concept. More importantly it's grownup vs. child.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by CAA Flagship »

So Pelosi is saying Trump is not invited to the the Capitol for the SOTU speech.
So if Trump decides to do a speech on TV from the WH, I guess he doesn't have to give the Dems an advanced copy for them to give a post-speech response.
That would be some great theater watching them scramble to respond. :lol:
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by JohnStOnge »

BTW I'm watching Trump respond to questions right now and wondering:

How can ANYBODY take someone with hair like that seriously? I mean really.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by JohnStOnge »

CAA Flagship wrote:So Pelosi is saying Trump is not invited to the the Capitol for the SOTU speech.
So if Trump decides to do a speech on TV from the WH, I guess he doesn't have to give the Dems an advanced copy for them to give a post-speech response.
That would be some great theater watching them scramble to respond. :lol:
They don't need an advanced copy. Trump is actually pretty predictable in terms of what one would expect him to say. To me the Democrats could very easily craft a response based on some basic points:

1) Trump lies a lot. They could also go ahead and fact check some of what he says based on the reasonable assumption that he's going to lie again and stick a few note on that in. But, really, they don't even have to do that. They could just talk about the past established record of how frequently he lies.

2) The economy is pretty much a continuation of what it was before Trump got elected. They could even be prepared with some graphs of job creation and unemployment rate to make their case. Yes, the economy is OK but it was OK before he got elected. Most of the drop in unemployment happened before he got elected and the job creation rate was about the same before he got elected as it's been afterwards. He's almost certainly going to talk about how low the unemployment rate is so some of those graphs we've all seen of unemployment rates over time would be very useful. Would probably be good to be prepared to show both a graph of overall rate one of Black rate.

3) Now he's started trade wars so that the economy may NOT be OK in the near future. Cite reports on fears about the world economy.

4) Income inequality is increasing. No, I don't personally think income inequality in and of itself is a bad thing but talking about it would probably work for them because most people are offended by it.

5) Trump is using extortion to get his wall. We can't give in to an extortion tactic. If he gets what he wants it's going to happen again and we'll be dealing with more shutdowns in the future. As a matter of principle we need to open the government so that extortion is off the table THEN negotiate.

AND they need to pick someone who can deliver the presentation effectively without looking like a deer in the headlights, stiff, or anything like that. That's probably the most important thing of all. They also need to pick a setting that's not someone standing up in space looking at the camera. As I said before: They need to let professionals design the presentation atmosphere.

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by Skjellyfetti »

CAA Flagship wrote:So Pelosi is saying Trump is not invited to the the Capitol for the SOTU speech.
So if Trump decides to do a speech on TV from the WH, I guess he doesn't have to give the Dems an advanced copy for them to give a post-speech response.
That would be some great theater watching them scramble to respond. :lol:
He already did a televised speech on this. It was worthless. And, not because of the response from Democrats.

Maybe an extended rewrite will help... but, I seriously doubt it.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by 93henfan »

CAA Flagship wrote:So Pelosi is saying Trump is not invited to the the Capitol for the SOTU speech.
So if Trump decides to do a speech on TV from the WH, I guess he doesn't have to give the Dems an advanced copy for them to give a post-speech response.
That would be some great theater watching them scramble to respond. :lol:
JSO is right. Trump is nothing if not completely predictable and elementary.

I think it's awesome that Pelosi shut him out of the House. Trump doesn't deserve a traditional SOTU with the government closed because he flip flopped after listening to Rush Limbaugh, leaving 800,000 civilian and 43,000 military families without pay for over a month.

I will drink a toast to every negative thing that happens to Trump and his family for the rest of my life for what he has done to my family. We deserve better.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by Ibanez »

CAA Flagship wrote:So Pelosi is saying Trump is not invited to the the Capitol for the SOTU speech.
So if Trump decides to do a speech on TV from the WH, I guess he doesn't have to give the Dems an advanced copy for them to give a post-speech response.
That would be some great theater watching them scramble to respond. :lol:
A joint resolution has to occur to invite POTUS. Has that happened?
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by 93henfan »

Ibanez wrote:
CAA Flagship wrote:So Pelosi is saying Trump is not invited to the the Capitol for the SOTU speech.
So if Trump decides to do a speech on TV from the WH, I guess he doesn't have to give the Dems an advanced copy for them to give a post-speech response.
That would be some great theater watching them scramble to respond. :lol:
A joint resolution has to occur to invite POTUS. Has that happened?
Have you not followed the news this afternoon? Pelosi sent another letter today saying it's off.

Not going to happen in the House.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by Ibanez »

93henfan wrote:
CAA Flagship wrote:So Pelosi is saying Trump is not invited to the the Capitol for the SOTU speech.
So if Trump decides to do a speech on TV from the WH, I guess he doesn't have to give the Dems an advanced copy for them to give a post-speech response.
That would be some great theater watching them scramble to respond. :lol:
JSO is right. Trump is nothing if not completely predictable and elementary.

I think it's awesome that Pelosi shut him out of the House. Trump doesn't deserve a traditional SOTU with the government closed because he flip flopped after listening to Rush Limbaugh, leaving 800,000 civilian and 43,000 military families without pay for over a month.

I will drink a toast to every negative thing that happens to Trump and his family for the rest of my life for what he has done to my family. We deserve better.
Yep. I'm amazed at the people on the right that can't see this. The facts on border security are squarely against him. All of this for a wall.

Oh, and let's now add people that operate Sec. 8 housing to the list of those affected b/c now they'll have to start evicting people in order to pay their mortgages.

Trump needs to go.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by ∞∞∞ »

93henfan wrote:
Ibanez wrote: A joint resolution has to occur to invite POTUS. Has that happened?
Have you not followed the news this afternoon? Pelosi sent another letter today saying it's off.

Not going to happen in the House.
As she should.

Also a fun fact I learned, but apparently the Speaker can have the Capitol Police escort the President out of the chamber if they trespass, and have 'em arrested if they refuse to leave.

Something about separation of powers.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by 89Hen »

∞∞∞ wrote:
93henfan wrote:
Have you not followed the news this afternoon? Pelosi sent another letter today saying it's off.

Not going to happen in the House.
As she should.

Also a fun fact I learned, but apparently the Speaker can have the Capitol Police escort the President out of the chamber if they trespass, and have 'em arrested if they refuse to leave.

Something about separation of powers.
I would expect that more likely the other way around (Pelosi and the WH).
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by ∞∞∞ »

89Hen wrote:
∞∞∞ wrote: As she should.

Also a fun fact I learned, but apparently the Speaker can have the Capitol Police escort the President out of the chamber if they trespass, and have 'em arrested if they refuse to leave.

Something about separation of powers.
I would expect that more likely the other way around (Pelosi and the WH).
Also true. Trump has the right regarding the White House.

I assume this rights extends to McConnell/Senate and Roberts/SCOTUS.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by GannonFan »

∞∞∞ wrote:
93henfan wrote:
Have you not followed the news this afternoon? Pelosi sent another letter today saying it's off.

Not going to happen in the House.
As she should.

Also a fun fact I learned, but apparently the Speaker can have the Capitol Police escort the President out of the chamber if they trespass, and have 'em arrested if they refuse to leave.

Something about separation of powers.
Not just the President, can do that to anyone. That came up a few years ago when the Dems did that sit-in in the House chamber and Ryan had the cameras turned off. The optics would've been terrible for arrests but that's within the Speaker's powers inside the House chamber (not the capitol, though, per se).
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by Silenoz »

Ibanez wrote:
93henfan wrote:
JSO is right. Trump is nothing if not completely predictable and elementary.

I think it's awesome that Pelosi shut him out of the House. Trump doesn't deserve a traditional SOTU with the government closed because he flip flopped after listening to Rush Limbaugh, leaving 800,000 civilian and 43,000 military families without pay for over a month.

I will drink a toast to every negative thing that happens to Trump and his family for the rest of my life for what he has done to my family. We deserve better.
Yep. I'm amazed at the people on the right that can't see this. The facts on border security are squarely against him. All of this for a wall.

Oh, and let's now add people that operate Sec. 8 housing to the list of those affected b/c now they'll have to start evicting people in order to pay their mortgages.

Trump needs to go.
They see it, but being "right" is more important than other people being fucked over
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by 93henfan »

McConnell blocks bill to reopen all agencies beside Homeland Security. #TrumpShutdown
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) blocked legislation on Wednesday that would reopen most of the government currently closed during the partial shutdown.

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) went to the Senate floor to ask for consent to take up the House-passed bill that would fund every agency and department impacted by the partial shutdown, except the Department of Homeland Security, through Sept. 30.

McConnell, however, objected. It's the fourth time he's blocked the bill to reopen most of government.
https://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/ ... government
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by mainejeff »

93henfan wrote: I will drink a toast to every negative thing that happens to Trump and his family for the rest of my life for what he has done to my family. We deserve better.
This.

:coffee:
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by Pwns »

LoL at the idea of sticking it to Trump by denying him a SOTU. The guy declare he's going to have an address atop Mount Erebus and all the major networks would send crews there to show it.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by Grizalltheway »

Pwns wrote:LoL at the idea of sticking it to Trump by denying him a SOTU. The guy declare he's going to have an address atop Mount Erebus and all the major networks would send crews there to show it.
They'd need one of these to get his fat orange ass up there.

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by CAA Flagship »

Grizalltheway wrote:
Pwns wrote:LoL at the idea of sticking it to Trump by denying him a SOTU. The guy declare he's going to have an address atop Mount Erebus and all the major networks would send crews there to show it.
They'd need one of these to get his fat orange ass up there.

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ZING!!!!!

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by Silenoz »

Grizalltheway wrote:
Pwns wrote:LoL at the idea of sticking it to Trump by denying him a SOTU. The guy declare he's going to have an address atop Mount Erebus and all the major networks would send crews there to show it.
They'd need one of these to get his fat orange ass up there.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by Grizalltheway »

CAA Flagship wrote:
Grizalltheway wrote: They'd need one of these to get his fat orange ass up there.

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ZING!!!!!

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by CID1990 »

Ibanez wrote:
GannonFan wrote:I thought this was a good read from the BBC. I didn't actually realize we already have $1.7B in funding from a prior Congressional approval for the wall that we're just now building.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46824649
I found these interesting
In 2000, 1.6 million people were arrested trying to cross the border illegally, while last year that number was just under 400,000.
Image

So, last year we had less than 400k people cross over illegally but we have more Canadians staying illegally than the next two countries combined.

Trumps also holding over 1 M workers hostage (Fed and contractors) to solve what? It's not crossings. Everyone agrees that the legal ports of entry need the money, not new sections of a wall. Trump and his stupid **** face base... :roll:
Border crossings last year were way down over uncertainty with the Trump admin’s intentions regarding asylum hearings, TPS, whether or not bring a kid was beneficial, etc-

But part of your assertion shows how desensitized we have become to illegal immigration- 400,000 people is a big number. We cant completely stop it but we can improve on it. But if 400,000 cross over each year, and we manage to 9A half of them and the other half disappear... guess where we are again in 20 years? Talking about Dreamers.

Trump says a lot of dumb and untrue things about his wall but an enhanced physical barrier IS a part of the larger solution. Even Steny Hoyer conceded this point yesterday (and I’m sure he’s getting a scolding today)


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