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Americans continue their march to low-tax states
The United States Census Bureau released its annual state-by-state population estimates for 2018 in late December. It highlights migration trends across the states and sketches a picture of looming political changes that will take place after the complete census of 2020.
Idaho, Nevada, Utah and Arizona led the way this past year in overall population growth as a percentage of population.
Once again, Texas and Florida were the big winners in overall population gains, with the Lone Star State gaining more than 379,000 residents from 2017-18 and the Sunshine State posting a gain of more than 322,000.
The big net losers from the report were New York, which lost a total of 48,510 residents, and Illinois, which lost 45,116.
These state-by-state population numbers will alter the makeup of seats in the United States House of Representative during the once-a-decade reapportionment and redistricting process that will commence after the 2020 census.
Political strategists from both sides of the aisle are interested in predicting the state political winners and losers of the next census in 2020. Election Data Services uses several methods to estimate the state-by-state changes to expect in 2020.
According to Election Data Services, the following states are poised to gain seats:
Texas will gain three, from 36 to 39;
Florida will gain two, from 27 to 29;
Arizona will gain one, from nine to 10;
Colorado will gain one, from seven to eight;
Montana will gain one, from at-large to two;
North Carolina will gain one, from 13 to 14; and
Oregon will gain one, from five to six.
These states are poised to lose seats:
New York will lose two, from 27 to 25;
Alabama will lose one, from seven to six;
California will lose one or remain even, from 53 to 52 or no change;
Michigan will lose one, from 14 to 13;
Minnesota will lose one or remain even, from eight to seven or no change;
Ohio will lose one, from 16 to 15;
Pennsylvania will lose one, from 18 to 17;
Rhode Island will lose one, from two to one; and
West Virginia will lose one, from three to two.....
....Big winners in net domestic migration in the past year include: Florida (+132,602), Arizona (+83,240) and Texas (+82,569). On the losing end we find: New York (-180,306), California (-156,068) and Illinois (-114,154)...
....Our work in Rich States, Poor States has revealed that states without personal income taxes have seen significantly better rates of in-migration than states with high income tax rates.
Of the nine states with no personal income tax, seven experienced positive domestic migration in the past year, totaling more than 339,000 on net. On the other side of the equation, a majority of states with the highest personal income tax rates experienced net domestic out-migration last year...."
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/429 ... tax-states
