2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

[css75]

Except it’s not a national election, John. It’s 50 STATE elections. so it doesn’t matter that 90% of Californians would vote for him, or 75% of New Yorkers. Doesn’t change the # of electoral votes they can cast. If Trump gets 48% of the popular vote again, he’ll win again.

mark it down. You heard it here first.

Looking at 2016, only 14 states were really in play. Of those,

Trump should be very worried about these three:
MI (Trump +0.2%) 16 electoral votes
PA (Trump +0.8%) 20 electoral votes
WI (Trump +0.8%) 10 electoral votes

Those flipping alone, assuming everything else stayed the same as 2016, would make the electoral college 273-258 Dem

These states are potential concerns for Trump, especially FL. If these fall, it's becoming a landslide:
FL (Trump +2.2%) 29 electoral votes
AZ (Trump +3.5%) 11 electoral votes
NC (Trump +3.7%) 15 electoral votes
GA (Trump +5.1%) 16 electoral votes
OH (Trump +8.1%) 18 electoral votes

These states are potential concerns for Dems, though I don't really see CO or VA coming back from the abyss at this point:
NH (Clinton +0.4%)
MN (Clinton +1.5%)
NV (Clinton +2.4%)
ME at large (Clinton +3.0%)
CO (Clinton +4.9%)
VA (Clinton +5.3%)

The math just doesn't look good at all for Trump in 2020. He really needs a big terrorist attack on US soil in mid-2020, preferably by a muslin cell that enters via Mexico, or a good old-fashioned stare-down with some commies.

I think Virginia is definitely in play again after the Govs endorsement of infanticide. Most people do not like that at all. Not too mention all the extracurricular activity there.


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[mainejeff]

Except it’s not a national election, John. It’s 50 STATE elections. so it doesn’t matter that 90% of Californians would vote for him, or 75% of New Yorkers. Doesn’t change the # of electoral votes they can cast. If Trump gets 48% of the popular vote again, he’ll win again.

mark it down. You heard it here first.

Looking at 2016, only 14 states were really in play. Of those,

Trump should be very worried about these three:
MI (Trump +0.2%) 16 electoral votes
PA (Trump +0.8%) 20 electoral votes
WI (Trump +0.8%) 10 electoral votes

Those flipping alone, assuming everything else stayed the same as 2016, would make the electoral college 273-258 Dem

These states are potential concerns for Trump, especially FL. If these fall, it's becoming a landslide:
FL (Trump +2.2%) 29 electoral votes
AZ (Trump +3.5%) 11 electoral votes
NC (Trump +3.7%) 15 electoral votes
GA (Trump +5.1%) 16 electoral votes
OH (Trump +8.1%) 18 electoral votes

These states are potential concerns for Dems, though I don't really see CO or VA coming back from the abyss at this point:
NH (Clinton +0.4%)
MN (Clinton +1.5%)
NV (Clinton +2.4%)
ME at large (Clinton +3.0%)
CO (Clinton +4.9%)
VA (Clinton +5.3%)

The math just doesn't look good at all for Trump in 2020. He really needs a big terrorist attack on US soil in mid-2020, preferably by a muslin cell that enters via Mexico, or a good old-fashioned stare-down with some commies.

Maine is not in play. Susan Collins is in big trouble though.

[BDKJMU]

Except it’s not a national election, John. It’s 50 STATE elections. so it doesn’t matter that 90% of Californians would vote for him, or 75% of New Yorkers. Doesn’t change the # of electoral votes they can cast. If Trump gets 48% of the popular vote again, he’ll win again.

mark it down. You heard it here first.

Looking at 2016, only 14 states were really in play. Of those,

Trump should be very worried about these three:
MI (Trump +0.2%) 16 electoral votes
PA (Trump +0.8%) 20 electoral votes
WI (Trump +0.8%) 10 electoral votes

Those flipping alone, assuming everything else stayed the same as 2016, would make the electoral college 273-258 Dem

These states are potential concerns for Trump, especially FL. If these fall, it's becoming a landslide:
FL (Trump +2.2%) 29 electoral votes
AZ (Trump +3.5%) 11 electoral votes
NC (Trump +3.7%) 15 electoral votes
GA (Trump +5.1%) 16 electoral votes
OH (Trump +8.1%) 18 electoral votes

These states are potential concerns for Dems, though I don't really see CO or VA coming back from the abyss at this point:
NH (Clinton +0.4%)
MN (Clinton +1.5%)
NV (Clinton +2.4%)
ME at large (Clinton +3.0%)
CO (Clinton +4.9%)
VA (Clinton +5.3%)

The math just doesn't look good at all for Trump in 2020. He really needs a big terrorist attack on US soil in mid-2020, preferably by a muslin cell that enters via Mexico, or a good old-fashioned stare-down with some commies.

It didn’t in 2016 either. You know, Hillary was gonna win in a landslide. And we saw how that worked out..

[93henfan]

It didn’t in 2016 either. You know, Hillary was gonna win in a landslide. And we saw how that worked out..

Keep telling yourself that.

Hillary was perhaps the least likable person since David Duke to run for President, and then Comey did Trump a huge favor with the October surprise.

Now people are looking to someone, anyone, to rescue them from this utter disaster of a presidency.

[UNI88]

It didn’t in 2016 either. You know, Hillary was gonna win in a landslide. And we saw how that worked out..

Keep telling yourself that.

Hillary was perhaps the least likable person since David Duke to run for President, and then Comey did Trump a huge favor with the October surprise.

Now people are looking to someone, anyone, to rescue them from this utter disaster of a presidency.

Very true. The risk is that the Democrats go too far to the left and that turns the swing voters off (especially in the swing states).

[AZGrizFan]

It didn’t in 2016 either. You know, Hillary was gonna win in a landslide. And we saw how that worked out..

Keep telling yourself that.

Hillary was perhaps the least likable person since David Duke to run for President, and then Comey did Trump a huge favor with the October surprise.

Now people are looking to someone, anyone, to rescue them from this utter disaster of a presidency.

The PRESIDENT may be a disaster, but his presidency has been far from it.

[JohnStOnge]

Keep telling yourself that.

Hillary was perhaps the least likable person since David Duke to run for President, and then Comey did Trump a huge favor with the October surprise.

Now people are looking to someone, anyone, to rescue them from this utter disaster of a presidency.

The PRESIDENT may be a disaster, but his presidency has been far from it.

Trump took over when things were going well and so far that's continued. But he's compromising the system.

[93henfan]

Keep telling yourself that.

Hillary was perhaps the least likable person since David Duke to run for President, and then Comey did Trump a huge favor with the October surprise.

Now people are looking to someone, anyone, to rescue them from this utter disaster of a presidency.

The PRESIDENT may be a disaster, but his presidency has been far from it.

So you're cool with a presidency that has set the precedent for the next Democrat President to declare an emergency for climate change, an emergency for gun violence, an emergency for (insert liberal cause here)... ?

I'm not.

[JohnStOnge]

Except it’s not a national election, John. It’s 50 STATE elections. so it doesn’t matter that 90% of Californians would vote for him, or 75% of New Yorkers. Doesn’t change the # of electoral votes they can cast. If Trump gets 48% of the popular vote again, he’ll win again.

mark it down. You heard it here first.

Yes I know how it works. But the popular vote winner has won the Electoral College on the overwhelming majority of occasions. What happened with Trump last time was very unusual. He won some key midwestern states by razor thin margins over a candidate that had that FBI thing hanging over her and also had to deal with the resentment within the Democratic Party over the Sanders thing.

All I"m saying is that he is a weak candidate and just about anybody the Democrats nominate will have a decent shot to beat him. I did see for the first time today that O'Rourke has stuff like a DUI in his background and that could be a problem but it probably means he won't be the nominee.

[AZGrizFan]

The PRESIDENT may be a disaster, but his presidency has been far from it.

So you're cool with a presidency that has set the precedent for the next Democrat President to declare an emergency for climate change, an emergency for gun violence, an emergency for (insert liberal cause here)... ?

I'm not.

I’ve already said here numerous times I am not/was not in favor of his using the national emergency declaration for the border. For those very reasons. I am almost CERTAIN donks will use it for gun violence and climate change, among others....

[css75]

The PRESIDENT may be a disaster, but his presidency has been far from it.

Trump took over when things were going well and so far that's continued. But he's compromising the system.

Keep believing that stuff.


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[AZGrizFan]

The PRESIDENT may be a disaster, but his presidency has been far from it.

Trump took over when things were going well and so far that's continued. But he's compromising the system.

I’m not just talking about the economy, John. I’m talking about a number of things, decisions made, decisions reversed, etc.,etc. I’ve posted the list here before, but you’re so fixated on his proclamations about the economy you’re blinded to the other successes he’s implemented.

[CID1990]

Except it’s not a national election, John. It’s 50 STATE elections. so it doesn’t matter that 90% of Californians would vote for him, or 75% of New Yorkers. Doesn’t change the # of electoral votes they can cast. If Trump gets 48% of the popular vote again, he’ll win again.

mark it down. You heard it here first.

Yes I know how it works. But the popular vote winner has won the Electoral College on the overwhelming majority of occasions. What happened with Trump last time was very unusual. He won some key midwestern states by razor thin margins over a candidate that had that FBI thing hanging over her and also had to deal with the resentment within the Democratic Party over the Sanders thing.

All I"m saying is that he is a weak candidate and just about anybody the Democrats nominate will have a decent shot to beat him. I did see for the first time today that O'Rourke has stuff like a DUI in his background and that could be a problem but it probably means he won't be the nominee.

O’Rourke and Bernie have the same uphill primary battle. They split a very similar pool of voters and they are both white males. They have differences also but there isnt enough daylight between them.

And the Dem primary is going to be the intersectionality olympics - they dont stand a chance.


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[BDKJMU]

It didn’t in 2016 either. You know, Hillary was gonna win in a landslide. And we saw how that worked out..

Keep telling yourself that.

Hillary was perhaps the least likable person since David Duke to run for President, and then Comey did Trump a huge favor with the October surprise.

Now people are looking to someone, anyone, to rescue them from this utter disaster of a presidency.

Ok dback JSO..

[BDKJMU]

Trump took over when things were going well and so far that's continued. But he's compromising the system.

I’m not just talking about the economy, John. I’m talking about a number of things, decisions made, decisions reversed, etc.,etc. I’ve posted the list here before, but you’re so fixated on his proclamations about the economy you’re blinded to the other successes he’s implemented.

Just for JSO:

Or, then, there’s the vast majority of conservatives who really dont’ give two shits what he says...

But...we like:

Denuclearization of Korean Peninsula
Ending the Korean War
Tax cuts
Out of the ridiculous Paris Accord
Cancel the **** up Iran nuclear deal
cancelling the Obamacare mandate
Building the wall
Bringing the troops home from Syria
Calling China and the rest of the world on their economic policies (and yes, I realize this is temporarily throwing the markets in a tizzy, and it’s all JSO will focus on besides the tweets)
Calling UN on the carpet
Making allies pay their fair share
And on and on and on......

I really don’t care about the tweets. Not one bit. And I wouldn’t have cared if Obama was green and **** on the front lawn of the White House every day if he’d done even THREE of the things on that list.

And I’d add judicial appointments, esp the 2 SCOTUS judges, and probably a few other things not listed..

[Ivytalk]

Caramel Harris getting some love from the usual Donk suspects in the MSM.

[JohnStOnge]

On this China thing: You guys need to realize that US consumers have become accustomed to low cost that China has given to them. If you screw with China you are screwing with that.

[BDKJMU]

On this China thing: You guys need to realize that US consumers have become accustomed to low cost that China has given to them. If you screw with China you are screwing with that.

And you need to realize:
-We have a massive trade imbalance with China.
-They put tariffs on US goods.
-They manipulate their currency.
-They conduct state sanctioned economic espionage against the US on a ginourmous scale..

And past POTUSes haven’t done a damn thing about any of the above..

[∞∞∞]

Bernie puts his hat in. This is one old fogey I can get behind.

[Ivytalk]

On this China thing: You guys need to realize that US consumers have become accustomed to low cost that China has given to them. If you screw with China you are screwing with that.

And you need to realize:
-We have a massive trade imbalance with China.
-They put tariffs on US goods.
-They manipulate their currency.
-They conduct state sanctioned economic espionage against the US on a ginourmous scale..

And past POTUSes haven’t done a damn thing about any of the above..

BDK FTW

[Ivytalk]

Bernie puts his hat in. This is one old fogey I can get behind.

But not too closely.

[Skjellyfetti]

On this China thing: You guys need to realize that US consumers have become accustomed to low cost that China has given to them. If you screw with China you are screwing with that.

And you need to realize:
-We have a massive trade imbalance with China.
-They put tariffs on US goods.
-They manipulate their currency.
-They conduct state sanctioned economic espionage against the US on a ginourmous scale..

And past POTUSes haven’t done a damn thing about any of the above..

Remember the Trans Pacific Partnership?

The Tariff War is Trump's alternative to dealing with China through that alliance. You can argue that the Trade War is better... and, I'm sure you do. But, don't act like it was the only way to deal with China and was previously ignored.

[AZGrizFan]

And you need to realize:
-We have a massive trade imbalance with China.
-They put tariffs on US goods.
-They manipulate their currency.
-They conduct state sanctioned economic espionage against the US on a ginourmous scale..

And past POTUSes haven’t done a damn thing about any of the above..

Remember the Trans Pacific Partnership?

The Tariff War is Trump's alternative to dealing with China through that alliance. You can argue that the Trade War is better... and, I'm sure you do. But, don't act like it was the only way to deal with China and was previously ignored.

How was that working out for us?

[CID1990]

And you need to realize:
-We have a massive trade imbalance with China.
-They put tariffs on US goods.
-They manipulate their currency.
-They conduct state sanctioned economic espionage against the US on a ginourmous scale..

And past POTUSes haven’t done a damn thing about any of the above..

Remember the Trans Pacific Partnership?

The Tariff War is Trump's alternative to dealing with China through that alliance. You can argue that the Trade War is better... and, I'm sure you do. But, don't act like it was the only way to deal with China and was previously ignored.

You mean the same TPP Hillary decided she was against after she was for before she was against?

The TPP is just another offshoring in the making and under no circumstances would it have gone through under either administration

TPP was not a viable strategy for “dealing with” China. The tariff might not be, either. It might be entirely too late to have an effect on China’s activities - but trade treaties with countries already on the verge of being completely co-opted by China are the least viable option if they are to be considered one at all. The last resort before Chinese trade hegemony is a trade war, not a trade agreement

[mainejeff]

F Bernie Sanders.