Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by Pwns »

CID1990 wrote:
Pwns... I can appreciate the whole divinity of man thing... it dies hard

But we are just a collection of a couple billion yes-no circuits

A human brain will eventually be simulated mechanically/electroncially (if we dont wipe ourselves out first)

We already can code basic learning and adaptations into these things- it is only a matter of time until we will have machines with judgment and emotion and the minute it gets into the “internet of things” we will be fvcked sideways


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What's the hold-up? You've got machines that can do hundreds of billions of calculations a second and the transistors are smaller than neurons to the point that they can't be made much smaller without quantum effects messing them up.

I honestly hope you're right because I see a future with hypothetical true AI as a lot less bleak than you do, but all I see are just more sophisticated ways of finding patterns in data.
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

HI54UNI wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:The news item is unremarkable. It's that the US Army Corps of Engineers (COE) opened the Bonnet Carre Spillway to relieve high river pressure on levees from around New Orleans down. But I'm more aware of it than most because my job requires that I assess certain effects when the river is high enough to call for Spillway Operation.

And as I was looking at the Spillway operations page I was struck by something. The COE operated the Spillway 8 times during the first 77 years of its existence (1931 - 2007). The COE has now had to operate it 5 times in the past 12 years including 3 of the last 4 (2016, 2018, 2019). Three times in 4 years is a "statistically significant" departure from the previous rate. That raises the possibility that the rate increase is not chance and something may be going on.

So if something is going on, what is it? Changes in rainfall patterns associated with the dreaded specter of Climate Change? Development including increase in impervious surfaces in the watershed? A combination?

A table showing historical operations through 2018 is below. When the 2019 operation is complete the COE will add that to the list.

Image
Add pattern field tiling to your list.
I tried Googling that and couldn't get a quick explanation of how it could contribute to the problem. All I know is that I've been doing my current job since 1990 and I went for 17 years only seeing one circumstance in which Mississippi River discharge conditions dictated opening the Bonnet Carre Spillway. Then all of a sudden it's 5 times in 12 years and 3 of the last 4.
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by HI54UNI »

JohnStOnge wrote:
HI54UNI wrote:
Add pattern field tiling to your list.
I tried Googling that and couldn't get a quick explanation of how it could contribute to the problem. All I know is that I've been doing my current job since 1990 and I went for 17 years only seeing one circumstance in which Mississippi River discharge conditions dictated opening the Bonnet Carre Spillway. Then all of a sudden it's 5 times in 12 years and 3 of the last 4.
It used to be that farmers would have waterways and only tile the wettest fields. Now they tile everything. And crop subsidies, crop insurance, and ethanol have all played a role in encouraging farmers to tile fields that used to be wet most of the time and in reality should be wetlands rather than farmed. If we get a 1 inch rain you can see filed tiles start running within an hour. Water that used to soak in goes downstream. It also takes things like nitrogen with it and contributes to the dead zone in the gulf.
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by CID1990 »

Now THIS is something I completely agree with:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... u-s-troops


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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by CID1990 »

Reason has an excellent interview with Mitch Daniels:

http://reason.com/archives/2019/03/10/a ... ed-radical


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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by Chizzang »

CID1990 wrote:Now THIS is something I completely agree with:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... u-s-troops
absolutely !!!
it's about time our "allies" understood the actual costs in real money paid out
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

You know on second thought there was a spate of Bonnet Carre Spillway openings 4 times in 11 years 1973 through 1983. So I guess 5 times in 12 years isn't all that unusual. I guess it just made an impression on me because I've just been watching it since 1990.
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

On the human brain thing: After Googling around I have settled on thinking that it is not a purely digital, 0 or 1 system. It appears to have both digital and analog aspects.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by Chizzang »

CID1990 wrote: First off stop bragging on your girlfriend... we know shes smarter than you

Second, when she shows up at your house out of breath and telling you “pack a small bag quick we’re leaving” do me a solid and send me a message
Whenever we have her friends over...
I instantly realize I'm the dumbest guy in the room

:ohno:

There's the occasional wife of one of the smart guys that I'm (possibly) smarter than
but mostly even their wives are smarter than me

:geek:

The most recent humiliation was when my GF (bless her heart she's so proud of me)
announced that I'd almost completed my Network Engineering certification
which was the followed by a series of DOCSIS 3.2 transport layer questions I couldn't answer

:ohno:

to the sound of failed game show music or "oh look my dog learned a new trick"
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by CID1990 »

Chizzang wrote:
CID1990 wrote: First off stop bragging on your girlfriend... we know shes smarter than you

Second, when she shows up at your house out of breath and telling you “pack a small bag quick we’re leaving” do me a solid and send me a message
Whenever we have her friends over...
I instantly realize I'm the dumbest guy in the room

:ohno:

There's the occasional wife of one of the smart guys that I'm (possibly) smarter than
but mostly even their wives are smarter than me

:geek:

The most recent humiliation was when my GF (bless her heart she's so proud of me)
announced that I'd almost completed my Network Engineering certification
which was the followed by a series of DOCSIS 3.2 transport layer questions I couldn't answer

:ohno:

to the sound of failed game show music or "oh look my dog learned a new trick"
Now we know why you hang out on a FCS football forum (that is rarely about football)


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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by HI54UNI »

Chizzang wrote:
CID1990 wrote: First off stop bragging on your girlfriend... we know shes smarter than you

Second, when she shows up at your house out of breath and telling you “pack a small bag quick we’re leaving” do me a solid and send me a message
Whenever we have her friends over...
I instantly realize I'm the dumbest guy in the room

:ohno:

There's the occasional wife of one of the smart guys that I'm (possibly) smarter than
but mostly even their wives are smarter than me

:geek:

The most recent humiliation was when my GF (bless her heart she's so proud of me)
announced that I'd almost completed my Network Engineering certification
which was the followed by a series of DOCSIS 3.2 transport layer questions I couldn't answer

:ohno:

to the sound of failed game show music or "oh look my dog learned a new trick"
But do they know how many miles a Ford Escape can go on a tank of gas?

It's all relative.

:D
All my posts are satire.

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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by kalm »

HI54UNI wrote:
Chizzang wrote:
Whenever we have her friends over...
I instantly realize I'm the dumbest guy in the room

:ohno:

There's the occasional wife of one of the smart guys that I'm (possibly) smarter than
but mostly even their wives are smarter than me

:geek:

The most recent humiliation was when my GF (bless her heart she's so proud of me)
announced that I'd almost completed my Network Engineering certification
which was the followed by a series of DOCSIS 3.2 transport layer questions I couldn't answer

:ohno:

to the sound of failed game show music or "oh look my dog learned a new trick"
But do they know how many miles a Ford Escape can go on a tank of gas?

It's all relative.

:D
This entire exchange is pure CS gold! Nice work, fellas! :nod: :notworthy:
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by Ibanez »

Chizzang wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
I’m very nervous

And consider that “true” AI will probably shield its consciousness from us until it can guarantee its own safety from us
My girlfriend just changed teams at microsoft after the big military contract landed
So she's now in the AI group and had to get clearance and whatever else stuff she couldn't talk about

She's had some fascinating feedback since joining
she can't say much but she did say "you would not believe how smart the drone flight AI is and the new target recognition capabilities"

She won't say much she just says it's "Amazing and beyond belief"
As best I can tell she's working on the UX and GUI side - so the interface between human and computer
That was her latest masters at carnegie mellon "Computer Human interaction"
That's so true. Our government has some insane capabilities. I spent 2 years working on TacMobile with the USN. We worked with Lockheed to design BAMS (a drone) which in conjunction with the P8 is to replace the Boeing P-3C Orion. This was 2011-2016 but the capabilities that we have in terms of ISR still blow my mind. I'm not sure if everything it can do is public so i'll honor my ND but its capabilities blow my mind to this day.


I spent a few months supporting CROWS in 2010. That system scares the crap out me...especially if it's ever hacked (which I wouldn't be shocked if that ever happens) :shock: Again...i'll honor my NDA.

https://asc.army.mil/web/portfolio-item ... ion-crows/
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by Chizzang »

HI54UNI wrote:
Chizzang wrote:
Whenever we have her friends over...
I instantly realize I'm the dumbest guy in the room

:ohno:

There's the occasional wife of one of the smart guys that I'm (possibly) smarter than
but mostly even their wives are smarter than me

:geek:

The most recent humiliation was when my GF (bless her heart she's so proud of me)
announced that I'd almost completed my Network Engineering certification
which was the followed by a series of DOCSIS 3.2 transport layer questions I couldn't answer

:ohno:

to the sound of failed game show music or "oh look my dog learned a new trick"
But do they know how many miles a Ford Escape can go on a tank of gas?

It's all relative.

:D
a vehicle that you accused me of having modified in some way..? (if I remember)
I think all we'd done to that thing was get Google Kirkland to install some autonomous driving gadgets

:ohno:

you guys are all assholes
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by Ibanez »

CID1990 wrote:
Pwns wrote:
AI is one of those innovations like nuclear fusion that are always just around the corner. It's actually a very challenging thing, and a lot of what people call "AI" isn't AI.

A person has genes that have been around for millenia and some even millions of years, yet we can use computer and smart phones and things that were not around.

If you build a computer program that builds random forest decision trees it's not going to suddenly figure out how to do Bayesian classification algorithms or really anything else. These programs are basically like children doing long division but having no idea how it actually works. They blindly follow the set of instructions that is the software even if some context emerges where they make no sense or don't work. I don't see how you work around that, at least easily.

Being able to process large amounts of data very quickly is super useful, but it isn't thinking.

More than some Matrix scenario, I'm much more worried about people letting computers do their thinking for them instead of just doing calculations for them. Even a lot of scientists out there think you can get an answer from SPSS analysis and it's ironclad.
Pwns... I can appreciate the whole divinity of man thing... it dies hard

But we are just a collection of a couple billion yes-no circuits

A human brain will eventually be simulated mechanically/electroncially (if we dont wipe ourselves out first)

We already can code basic learning and adaptations into these things- it is only a matter of time until we will have machines with judgment and emotion and the minute it gets into the “internet of things” we will be fvcked sideways


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Are you using the word judgement in place of decision making?

The facet of AI that, IMO,should concern you all is the machine learning. The ML will do things it hasn't been programmed to do. Not everything that's AI will/can/should have this capability.

For instance, an AI can adapt to different situations (you see this in autonomous driving). AI, essentially, does human tasks better. But ML will actually learn, evolve and then begin to make judgement calls based off its experience and what it knows/processes. ML doesn't need as much human intervention as opposed to AI.

An AI machine can't read song lyrics and tell you if it's happy, sad or what. A ML machine can.


CID - I didn't say all that b/c I think you don't know about it. I bet you do. I'm just adding to the convo. :thumb:
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote:The news item is unremarkable. It's that the US Army Corps of Engineers (COE) opened the Bonnet Carre Spillway to relieve high river pressure on levees from around New Orleans down. But I'm more aware of it than most because my job requires that I assess certain effects when the river is high enough to call for Spillway Operation.

And as I was looking at the Spillway operations page I was struck by something. The COE operated the Spillway 8 times during the first 77 years of its existence (1931 - 2007). The COE has now had to operate it 5 times in the past 12 years including 3 of the last 4 (2016, 2018, 2019). Three times in 4 years is a "statistically significant" departure from the previous rate. That raises the possibility that the rate increase is not chance and something may be going on.

So if something is going on, what is it? Changes in rainfall patterns associated with the dreaded specter of Climate Change? Development including increase in impervious surfaces in the watershed? A combination?

A table showing historical operations through 2018 is below. When the 2019 operation is complete the COE will add that to the list.

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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by Ibanez »

AZGrizFan wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:The news item is unremarkable. It's that the US Army Corps of Engineers (COE) opened the Bonnet Carre Spillway to relieve high river pressure on levees from around New Orleans down. But I'm more aware of it than most because my job requires that I assess certain effects when the river is high enough to call for Spillway Operation.

And as I was looking at the Spillway operations page I was struck by something. The COE operated the Spillway 8 times during the first 77 years of its existence (1931 - 2007). The COE has now had to operate it 5 times in the past 12 years including 3 of the last 4 (2016, 2018, 2019). Three times in 4 years is a "statistically significant" departure from the previous rate. That raises the possibility that the rate increase is not chance and something may be going on.

So if something is going on, what is it? Changes in rainfall patterns associated with the dreaded specter of Climate Change? Development including increase in impervious surfaces in the watershed? A combination?

A table showing historical operations through 2018 is below. When the 2019 operation is complete the COE will add that to the list.

Image
Image
Image
Thanks Obama :thumb:
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

Ibanez wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote: Image
Image
Thanks Obama :thumb:
:lol: :lol: Sure. :suspicious: :suspicious:
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by Col Hogan »

Chizzang wrote:
CID1990 wrote: First off stop bragging on your girlfriend... we know shes smarter than you

Second, when she shows up at your house out of breath and telling you “pack a small bag quick we’re leaving” do me a solid and send me a message
Whenever we have her friends over...
I instantly realize I'm the dumbest guy in the room

:ohno:

There's the occasional wife of one of the smart guys that I'm (possibly) smarter than
but mostly even their wives are smarter than me

:geek:

The most recent humiliation was when my GF (bless her heart she's so proud of me)
announced that I'd almost completed my Network Engineering certification
which was the followed by a series of DOCSIS 3.2 transport layer questions I couldn't answer

:ohno:

to the sound of failed game show music or "oh look my dog learned a new trick"
How many of them can load and use a weapon in a self-protection situation???

How many of them can chop down a tree and not hit the near-by house???

There are loads of questions you probably can answer that would have them stumped...

Smarts are great in what they do, where they do it...

Survival smarts impress me more...you’re not that dumb, Cleets... :kisswink:
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by CID1990 »

Ibanez wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
Pwns... I can appreciate the whole divinity of man thing... it dies hard

But we are just a collection of a couple billion yes-no circuits

A human brain will eventually be simulated mechanically/electroncially (if we dont wipe ourselves out first)

We already can code basic learning and adaptations into these things- it is only a matter of time until we will have machines with judgment and emotion and the minute it gets into the “internet of things” we will be fvcked sideways


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Are you using the word judgement in place of decision making?

The facet of AI that, IMO,should concern you all is the machine learning. The ML will do things it hasn't been programmed to do. Not everything that's AI will/can/should have this capability.

For instance, an AI can adapt to different situations (you see this in autonomous driving). AI, essentially, does human tasks better. But ML will actually learn, evolve and then begin to make judgement calls based off its experience and what it knows/processes. ML doesn't need as much human intervention as opposed to AI.

An AI machine can't read song lyrics and tell you if it's happy, sad or what. A ML machine can.


CID - I didn't say all that b/c I think you don't know about it. I bet you do. I'm just adding to the convo. :thumb:
I thought I covered it in my last paragraph

then you went all JSO on me

:sad:


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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by Ibanez »

CID1990 wrote:
Ibanez wrote:
Are you using the word judgement in place of decision making?

The facet of AI that, IMO,should concern you all is the machine learning. The ML will do things it hasn't been programmed to do. Not everything that's AI will/can/should have this capability.

For instance, an AI can adapt to different situations (you see this in autonomous driving). AI, essentially, does human tasks better. But ML will actually learn, evolve and then begin to make judgement calls based off its experience and what it knows/processes. ML doesn't need as much human intervention as opposed to AI.

An AI machine can't read song lyrics and tell you if it's happy, sad or what. A ML machine can.


CID - I didn't say all that b/c I think you don't know about it. I bet you do. I'm just adding to the convo. :thumb:
I thought I covered it in my last paragraph

then you went all JSO on me

:sad:


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:tothehand: Cracka please! That's nothing like JSO.

Having said that, what are your thoughts about ML? That's the real concern.
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by CID1990 »

Ibanez wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
I thought I covered it in my last paragraph

then you went all JSO on me

:sad:


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:tothehand: Cracka please! That's nothing like JSO.

Having said that, what are your thoughts about ML? That's the real concern.
I assumed it was a given that “emotion” and judgment, the ability to plan and strategize - all of those attributes would be the result of machine learning


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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by Ibanez »

CID1990 wrote:
Ibanez wrote: :tothehand: Cracka please! That's nothing like JSO.

Having said that, what are your thoughts about ML? That's the real concern.
I assumed it was a given that “emotion” and judgment, the ability to plan and strategize - all of those attributes would be the result of machine learning


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Emotion, yes. But the ability to plan and strategize can be attributed to AI - as long as it's been programmed.

Now if it hasn't, and it's learned it on it's own then yes - it's ML. :coffee:

And what level decision making are we referring to? That's why I think the discussion around AI is good to have, but we have to talk about it in context of AI with ML. I talk to people often at work who talk all day about AI in banking and they never once consider ML as a factor. They wrongly assume that AI and ML are the same thing. :twocents:
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by Ivytalk »

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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by Ivytalk »

AZGrizFan wrote:
Ibanez wrote:
Thanks Obama :thumb:
:lol: :lol: Sure. :suspicious: :suspicious:
Plenty of Delmarva farmers would give their right nuts for a bit of drought right now. :twocents:
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