2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

[Ivytalk]

Hickenlooper is in. The one we’ve been waiting for.

[CID1990]

Hickenlooper is in. The one we’ve been waiting for.

Thank god finally

It will be interesting to see if the Dems can come up with a better debate solution than the GOP did

The GOP decided who the back-benchers were and put them in a separate debate

The way things are going the Dems might need 3 tiers


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[JohnStOnge]

I think this is related because I see the Republican side adopting a strategy of casting the Democrats as extreme. Take a look at the graphic below showing results from a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted February 24 - 27. Note that the distribution of public opinion is such that the general public views the Republican Party as being more out of the mainstream than the Democratic Party is. This was taken in the context of the "Green New Deal" coming out beforehand. Yet 56% view the Democratic Party as "In the mainstream" on the Climate change issue vs. only 29% thinking the Republican Party is. Republicans are thinking the "Medicare for All" thing is going to hurt the Democrats. The chart also references Health Care, Immigration, Abortion, and Fiscal Issues. The Democrats clearly enjoy a "more in the mainstream" advantage with respect to all of them except for Fiscal Issues. And I'd say it's pretty much a tie with respect to Fiscal Issues.

It relates to something I've written before. Right now Republicans are in this echo chamber where they are oblivious to the evolution in public opinion. They are playing to a shrinking audience.



The image is from the page at http://graphics.wsj.com/wsjnbcpoll/

[CID1990]

I think this is related because I see the Republican side adopting a strategy of casting the Democrats as extreme. Take a look at the graphic below showing results from a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted February 24 - 27. Note that the distribution of public opinion is such that the general public views the Republican Party as being more out of the mainstream than the Democratic Party is. This was taken in the context of the "Green New Deal" coming out beforehand. Yet 56% view the Democratic Party as "In the mainstream" on the Climate change issue vs. only 29% thinking the Republican Party is. Republicans are thinking the "Medicare for All" thing is going to hurt the Democrats. The chart also references Health Care, Immigration, Abortion, and Fiscal Issues. The Democrats clearly enjoy a "more in the mainstream" advantage with respect to all of them except for Fiscal Issues. And I'd say it's pretty much a tie with respect to Fiscal Issues.

It relates to something I've written before. Right now Republicans are in this echo chamber where they are oblivious to the evolution in public opinion. They are playing to a shrinking audience.



The image is from the page at http://graphics.wsj.com/wsjnbcpoll/

Some of them ARE extreme.

Others will try to appear extreme to get their share of the remaining oxygen in the room.

The key is to figure out the ones who are full of sh1t and vote for them... in other words, identify the Jeb Bush in the group


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[Ivytalk]

I think this is related because I see the Republican side adopting a strategy of casting the Democrats as extreme. Take a look at the graphic below showing results from a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted February 24 - 27. Note that the distribution of public opinion is such that the general public views the Republican Party as being more out of the mainstream than the Democratic Party is. This was taken in the context of the "Green New Deal" coming out beforehand. Yet 56% view the Democratic Party as "In the mainstream" on the Climate change issue vs. only 29% thinking the Republican Party is. Republicans are thinking the "Medicare for All" thing is going to hurt the Democrats. The chart also references Health Care, Immigration, Abortion, and Fiscal Issues. The Democrats clearly enjoy a "more in the mainstream" advantage with respect to all of them except for Fiscal Issues. And I'd say it's pretty much a tie with respect to Fiscal Issues.

It relates to something I've written before. Right now Republicans are in this echo chamber where they are oblivious to the evolution in public opinion. They are playing to a shrinking audience.



The image is from the page at http://graphics.wsj.com/wsjnbcpoll/

Some of them ARE extreme.

Others will try to appear extreme to get their share of the remaining oxygen in the room.

The key is to figure out the ones who are full of sh1t and vote for them... in other words, identify the Jeb Bush in the group


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If Biden gets in, as expected, the oxygen supply will be gone, and the fringe candidates will start dropping out quickly. Biden/Caramel would be the toughest ticket the Donks could put up.

[CID1990]

Some of them ARE extreme.

Others will try to appear extreme to get their share of the remaining oxygen in the room.

The key is to figure out the ones who are full of sh1t and vote for them... in other words, identify the Jeb Bush in the group


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If Biden gets in, as expected, the oxygen supply will be gone, and the fringe candidates will start dropping out quickly. Biden/Caramel would be the toughest ticket the Donks could put up.

A few days ago I’d say that Biden would be good because he won’t sprint left and has at least a modicum of spine when the nuts start at him about free college and other pixie dust items

But he folded like origami when that Sex in the City harpy lit into him

So who knows...

[Ivytalk]

If Biden gets in, as expected, the oxygen supply will be gone, and the fringe candidates will start dropping out quickly. Biden/Caramel would be the toughest ticket the Donks could put up.

A few days ago I’d say that Biden would be good because he won’t sprint left and has at least a modicum of spine when the nuts start at him about free college and other pixie dust items

But he folded like origami when that Sex in the City harpy lit into him

So who knows...

If he survived Neal Kinnock, he can survive Cynthia Nixon.

[CID1990]

They can't help themselves, George... it's their base... the Neo Know Nothings

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... 717d387210

[kalm]

I think this is related because I see the Republican side adopting a strategy of casting the Democrats as extreme. Take a look at the graphic below showing results from a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted February 24 - 27. Note that the distribution of public opinion is such that the general public views the Republican Party as being more out of the mainstream than the Democratic Party is. This was taken in the context of the "Green New Deal" coming out beforehand. Yet 56% view the Democratic Party as "In the mainstream" on the Climate change issue vs. only 29% thinking the Republican Party is. Republicans are thinking the "Medicare for All" thing is going to hurt the Democrats. The chart also references Health Care, Immigration, Abortion, and Fiscal Issues. The Democrats clearly enjoy a "more in the mainstream" advantage with respect to all of them except for Fiscal Issues. And I'd say it's pretty much a tie with respect to Fiscal Issues.

It relates to something I've written before. Right now Republicans are in this echo chamber where they are oblivious to the evolution in public opinion. They are playing to a shrinking audience.



The image is from the page at http://graphics.wsj.com/wsjnbcpoll/

Could have sworn a thoughtful moderate was well to the right of these things...

[HI54UNI]

Jay Inslee and John Delaney are already running commercials in Iowa. Apparently Inslee is staking the whole thing on climate change and Delaney's are just weird. And the caucuses are almost a year away. Can we at least get through summer before we have to see this shit....

[Ivytalk]

I think this is related because I see the Republican side adopting a strategy of casting the Democrats as extreme. Take a look at the graphic below showing results from a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted February 24 - 27. Note that the distribution of public opinion is such that the general public views the Republican Party as being more out of the mainstream than the Democratic Party is. This was taken in the context of the "Green New Deal" coming out beforehand. Yet 56% view the Democratic Party as "In the mainstream" on the Climate change issue vs. only 29% thinking the Republican Party is. Republicans are thinking the "Medicare for All" thing is going to hurt the Democrats. The chart also references Health Care, Immigration, Abortion, and Fiscal Issues. The Democrats clearly enjoy a "more in the mainstream" advantage with respect to all of them except for Fiscal Issues. And I'd say it's pretty much a tie with respect to Fiscal Issues.

It relates to something I've written before. Right now Republicans are in this echo chamber where they are oblivious to the evolution in public opinion. They are playing to a shrinking audience.



The image is from the page at http://graphics.wsj.com/wsjnbcpoll/

Could have sworn a thoughtful moderate was well to the right of these things...

Do you know any?

[AZGrizFan]

I think that the Republicans are blind to the fact that the ground is shifting beneath their feet. They are going to the well of trying to scare people about socialism, government control, taxing the rich, etc. And they apparently don't realize that people are not afraid of socialism, government control, taxing the rich, etc. as they used to be. Most people believe climate change is a problem that needs to be addressed. Most people believe health care is a right. Most people believe government should tax the hell out of the super rich to pay for benefits for everybody else. Whether that means the Republicans get killed in 2020 is uncertain. But the trends for the long term indicate that the Republican position is not tenable. The Party is headed for oblivion unless the overall demographic and cultural trends somehow change.

What's your take on this, John? It goes directly against your entire months-long diatribe about this "shifting ground"...it's shifting alright, just not like you've been espousing...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleystah ... 992cc47878

There has been much talk about the Millennial generation being entitled, lazy, and narcissistic. And while Millennials like myself were busy fending off the harsh criticisms and stereotypes constantly flung at our generation, a whole new demographic was slowly emerging from the shadows. Hello, Generation Z! The fiscally responsible, tattoo hating, Republican leaning group, touted by conservatives as their best hope for the future, and as the antithesis of Millennials.

While Millennials still remember cassette players and dial-up Internet, Generation Z grew up hounded by perpetual terrorist threats and school shootings reflecting on them from their Macbook and iPad screens.
They grew up watching Millennials entering the work force with thousands of dollars in school debt, and it seems that they are intent on not making the same mistakes as us.

According to research, Gen Z is more individualistic, more conservative both socially and fiscally, and they’re already making waves of impact on our political system. Gen Z, those born in 1995 or later, is possibly the most conservative generation since World War II, and it is worrying that their impact has been completely overlooked during this election. While our fears might be preemptive, we should not make the mistake of disregarding the intriguing yet also possibly worrying world views of Generation Z.

Oftentimes Millennials have been criticized for being notoriously liberal, but it looks like the generation right behind us has completely rebelled. A U.K. Study at The Gild did a survey of almost 2,000 adults and found that on issues like gay marriage, marijuana legalization, transgender rights, and even tattoos, 59% of Gen Z respondents described their views as ‘conservative’ and ‘moderate’.

This is a radical change from 83% Millennials and 85% of Gen X who state that their views are ‘quite’ or ‘very liberal’ on those same issues. What’s worrying is that given their more conservative leanings, Gen Z was not taken into account during this election, even though for many of them it was their first. Younger generations are famous for being liberal, therefore we mistakenly assumed that Gen Z would vote Democratic. But studies show that Gen Z’s views closely resemble those of Libertarian or Moderate Republicans, and that they related with Donald Trump on issues like national security and job creation.

[Skjellyfetti]

Well, it's the UK for one. Would be interesting to see one done for the US.

[AZGrizFan]

Well, it's the UK for one. Would be interesting to see one done for the US.

One piece of info that directly relates to JSO's assertion:

Of course, generalizations at this stage are very early and very subject to development. But according to polling in the wake of the 2016 election, Gen Z Americans didn’t vote like their Millennial predecessors. Eight out of ten of these kids identify themselves as “fiscally conservative,” and they prefer saving to spending—at rates not seen since the Silent Generation.

[JohnStOnge]

Well, it's the UK for one. Would be interesting to see one done for the US.

One piece of info that directly relates to JSO's assertion:

Of course, generalizations at this stage are very early and very subject to development. But according to polling in the wake of the 2016 election, Gen Z Americans didn’t vote like their Millennial predecessors. Eight out of ten of these kids identify themselves as “fiscally conservative,” and they prefer saving to spending—at rates not seen since the Silent Generation.

I Googled "Generation Z" and the answer I got is that it's people born from the mid 1990s through the early 2000s. In 2016 people born in the 1995 would have been 21. People born in 1998 would've been 18. So we can't capture them yet then. In 2018 we're getting to people born 1995 through 2000 being eligible to vote. So we're getting close to capturing this "Generation Z."

Of course in both elections the "Generation Z" people would be in the 18-29 group for exit polling. In 2016 that group went for Clinton 55% to 36%. In 2018 that group went for Democrats by 56% to 42% in the House races. In 2018 the 18 through 29 group went for Democrats by 67% to 32% in the House races. I'm not seeing a lot of indication that they favor Republicans.

I also don't see a lot of indication that they are "less Democratic" than millenials. Like in 2018 the 30 through 44 age group voted for Democrats by 58% to 49%.

There's just no indication in any of that that this "Generation Z" votes less strongly Democrat than millenials do.

[kalm]

Interesting. He should try and find someone named Yin for his running mate.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-littl ... the-system

[AZGrizFan]

One piece of info that directly relates to JSO's assertion:

I Googled "Generation Z" and the answer I got is that it's people born from the mid 1990s through the early 2000s. In 2016 people born in the 1995 would have been 21. People born in 1998 would've been 18. So we can't capture them yet then. In 2018 we're getting to people born 1995 through 2000 being eligible to vote. So we're getting close to capturing this "Generation Z."

Of course in both elections the "Generation Z" people would be in the 18-29 group for exit polling. In 2016 that group went for Clinton 55% to 36%. In 2018 that group went for Democrats by 56% to 42% in the House races. In 2018 the 18 through 29 group went for Democrats by 67% to 32% in the House races. I'm not seeing a lot of indication that they favor Republicans.

I also don't see a lot of indication that they are "less Democratic" than millenials. Like in 2018 the 30 through 44 age group voted for Democrats by 58% to 49%.

There's just no indication in any of that that this "Generation Z" votes less strongly Democrat than millenials do.

I get it. A poll that doesn't fit your narrative, therefore you dismiss it.

[JohnStOnge]

I Googled "Generation Z" and the answer I got is that it's people born from the mid 1990s through the early 2000s. In 2016 people born in the 1995 would have been 21. People born in 1998 would've been 18. So we can't capture them yet then. In 2018 we're getting to people born 1995 through 2000 being eligible to vote. So we're getting close to capturing this "Generation Z."

Of course in both elections the "Generation Z" people would be in the 18-29 group for exit polling. In 2016 that group went for Clinton 55% to 36%. In 2018 that group went for Democrats by 56% to 42% in the House races. In 2018 the 18 through 29 group went for Democrats by 67% to 32% in the House races. I'm not seeing a lot of indication that they favor Republicans.

I also don't see a lot of indication that they are "less Democratic" than millenials. Like in 2018 the 30 through 44 age group voted for Democrats by 58% to 49%.

There's just no indication in any of that that this "Generation Z" votes less strongly Democrat than millenials do.

I get it. A poll that doesn't fit your narrative, therefore you dismiss it.

No, it's not that. It's that we have polling pertaining to how people actually voted. We won't be able to get that "generation z" fully into the exit polling until they are all old enough to vote. But so far there is no indication in polling on how people actually voted to suggest that they tend to vote Republican.

In fact, as more of the "generation z" people entered the voting population between 2016 and 2018 the percent of people in the 18 to 29 age group voting Democrat went up.

[JohnStOnge]

I found a good indication. Here are the Texas exit polling results for O'Rourke vs. C r u z:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit- ... xas/senate

The 18 through 24 age group is pretty much going to be Generation Z. Most 18 year olds would've been borne in 2000 and 24 year olds would've been borne in 1994. Recall that Generation Z consists of people borne from the mid 1990s through the early 2000s.

The estimate is that 18 through 24 year olds in Texas voted for the Democrat, O'Rourke over the Republican, C r u z, by 68% to 32%.

[AZGrizFan]

I found a good indication. Here are the Texas exit polling results for O'Rourke vs. C r u z:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit- ... xas/senate

The 18 through 24 age group is pretty much going to be Generation Z. Most 18 year olds would've been borne in 2000 and 24 year olds would've been borne in 1994. Recall that Generation Z consists of people borne from the mid 1990s through the early 2000s.

The estimate is that 18 through 24 year olds in Texas voted for the Democrat, O'Rourke over the Republican, C r u z, by 68% to 32%.

That vote means literally nothing, and if you knew anything about Texas politics you’d know that. There were literally hundreds of thousands of votes cast AGAINST Cruz rather than for O’Rourke.

[Ivytalk]

I found a good indication. Here are the Texas exit polling results for O'Rourke vs. C r u z:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit- ... xas/senate

The 18 through 24 age group is pretty much going to be Generation Z. Most 18 year olds would've been borne in 2000 and 24 year olds would've been borne in 1994. Recall that Generation Z consists of people borne from the mid 1990s through the early 2000s.

The estimate is that 18 through 24 year olds in Texas voted for the Democrat, O'Rourke over the Republican, C r u z, by 68% to 32%.

*born

Stupid Donk apologist

[SDHornet]

I guess this can go here:

Representatives of America’s largest organized-labor group predicted that the recently introduced Green New Deal resolution would bring “immediate harm” to millions of workers if enacted in a letter sent to the plan’s sponsors on Friday.

“We welcome the call for labor rights and dialogue with labor, but the Green New Deal resolution is far too short on specific solutions that speak to the jobs of our members and the critical sections of our economy,” reads the letter, which was signed by ten national labor unions on the AFL-CIO’s energy committee. “We will not accept proposals that could cause immediate harm to millions of our members and their families. We will not stand by and allow threats to our members’ jobs and their families’ standard of living go [sic] unanswered.”

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/afl ... -millions/

Can somebody say "schism".

[JohnStOnge]

I found a good indication. Here are the Texas exit polling results for O'Rourke vs. C r u z:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit- ... xas/senate

The 18 through 24 age group is pretty much going to be Generation Z. Most 18 year olds would've been borne in 2000 and 24 year olds would've been borne in 1994. Recall that Generation Z consists of people borne from the mid 1990s through the early 2000s.

The estimate is that 18 through 24 year olds in Texas voted for the Democrat, O'Rourke over the Republican, C r u z, by 68% to 32%.

That vote means literally nothing, and if you knew anything about Texas politics you’d know that. There were literally hundreds of thousands of votes cast AGAINST Boobs rather than for O’Rourke.

Ok then we can go with what happened nationally in the House generic ballot in 2018. The 18 through 24 year old age group voted more strongly for Democrats than any other age group. 68% to 31%. You're kidding yourself if you think this "Generation Z" is leaning Republican or Conservative.

[BDKJMU]

Current scorecard: "203 individuals have filed with the Federal Election Commission to run for president in the Democratic Party primary, as of March 14, 2019".
"the candidates in this section have held public office, been included in a minimum of five independent national polls or have otherwise received substantial coverage"

Dates they officially declared their candidacy, their ages, current job(s):
1. 11/6/17 Andrew Yang, 44, former CEO Venture for America.
2. 1/11 Tulsi Gabbard, 37, Rep HI 2013-present.
3. 1/12 Julian Castro, 44, Mayor of San Antonio 2009-2014; Sec HUD 2014-2017.
4. 1/15 Kirsten Gillibrand, 52, Rep NY 2007-2009, Sen NY 2009-present.
5. 1/21 Kamala Harris, 54, Sen CA 2017-present.
6. 1/28 John Delaney, 55, Rep MD 2013-2019.
7. 1/28 Marianne Williamson, 66, NYT best selling author.
8. 2/1 Spartacus, 49, Mayor Newark, NJ, 2006-2013; Senator NJ 2013-present.
9. 2/9 Pocahontas, 69, Sen MA 2013-present.
10. 2/10 Amy Klochbar, 58, Sen MN, 2007-present.
11. 2/19 Bernie Sanders, Sen VT 2007-present.
12. 3/1 Jay Inslee, 68, Gov WA 2013-present.
13. 3/4 John Hickenlooper, Mayor of Denver (2003–2011), Gov of Colorado (2011–2019).
14. 3/14 Robert O'Rourke, 46, Rep El Paso 2013-2019.
15. 4/14 Peter Buttigieg, 37, Mayor of South Bend, ND 2012-present, 1st openly gay donk candidate.


Formed exploratory committee:
16. 3/13/19 Wayne Messam, 44, Mayor of Miramar, FL, 2015-present.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Demo ... committees

Bump. Updated.

[css75]

Current scorecard: "203 individuals have filed with the Federal Election Commission to run for president in the Democratic Party primary, as of March 14, 2019".
"the candidates in this section have held public office, been included in a minimum of five independent national polls or have otherwise received substantial coverage"

Dates they officially declared their candidacy, their ages, current job(s):
1. 11/6/17 Andrew Yang, 44, former CEO Venture for America.
2. 1/11 Tulsi Gabbard, 37, Rep HI 2013-present.
3. 1/12 Julian Castro, 44, Mayor of San Antonio 2009-2014; Sec HUD 2014-2017.
4. 1/15 Kirsten Gillibrand, 52, Rep NY 2007-2009, Sen NY 2009-present.
5. 1/21 Kamala Harris, 54, Sen CA 2017-present.
6. 1/28 John Delaney, 55, Rep MD 2013-2019.
7. 1/28 Marianne Williamson, 66, NYT best selling author.
8. 2/1 Spartacus, 49, Mayor Newark, NJ, 2006-2013; Senator NJ 2013-present.
9. 2/9 Pocahontas, 69, Sen MA 2013-present.
10. 2/10 Amy Klochbar, 58, Sen MN, 2007-present.
11. 2/19 Bernie Sanders, Sen VT 2007-present.
12. 2/22 Peter Buttigieg, 37, Mayor of South Bend, ND 2012-present, 1st openly gay donk candidate.
13. 3/1 Jay Inslee, 68, Gov WA 2013-present.
14. 3/4 John Hickenlooper, Mayor of Denver (2003–2011), Gov of Colorado (2011–2019).
15. 3/14 Robert O'Rourke, 46, Rep El Paso 2013-2019.

Formed exploratory committee:
16. 3/13/19 Wayne Messam, 44, Mayor of Miramar, FL, 2015-present.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Demo ... committees

Bump. Updated.

Keep em coming.


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