2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

[mainejeff]

Biden gives Dems their best chance to beat Trump out of the current field. If they nominate anybody else, Trump wins.

I don't yet know how to call it if Biden is the nominee. My gut is the Biden would win but then I also called Hillary in a landslide so what the hell do I know?

Trump is beloved... even by those who claim to dislike him
He'll get votes from people who will say they aren't even voting for him (See: Seattlegriz)

Racism is a very powerful political tool. A Trump victory would not be shocking....but it would definitely be a HUIGE black eye on our country. It would lead to BIG changes in the way that we govern down the road....and probably pretty much kill true patriotism in this country. Trump's legacy will be him exposing the weaknesses in our Constitution, laws and government.

[Ivytalk]

Trump is beloved... even by those who claim to dislike him
He'll get votes from people who will say they aren't even voting for him (See: Seattlegriz)

Racism is a very powerful political tool. A Trump victory would not be shocking....but it would definitely be a HUIGE black eye on our country. It would lead to BIG changes in the way that we govern down the road....and probably pretty much kill true patriotism in this country. Trump's legacy will be him exposing the weaknesses in our Constitution, laws and government.

You sound like a ghey JSO in that post.

[mainejeff]

Racism is a very powerful political tool. A Trump victory would not be shocking....but it would definitely be a HUIGE black eye on our country. It would lead to BIG changes in the way that we govern down the road....and probably pretty much kill true patriotism in this country. Trump's legacy will be him exposing the weaknesses in our Constitution, laws and government.

You sound like a ghey JSO in that post.

And you sound like a typical white entitled male in all of yours.

[Ivytalk]

You sound like a ghey JSO in that post.

And you sound like a typical white entitled male in all of yours.

Thank you. That’s what I strive for.

By the way, *HUGE.

[CID1990]

Trump is beloved... even by those who claim to dislike him
He'll get votes from people who will say they aren't even voting for him (See: Seattlegriz)

Racism is a very powerful political tool. A Trump victory would not be shocking....but it would definitely be a HUIGE black eye on our country. It would lead to BIG changes in the way that we govern down the road....and probably pretty much kill true patriotism in this country. Trump's legacy will be him exposing the weaknesses in our Constitution, laws and government.

Somehow I remember those same dire predictions a couple years ago

any day now the Republic will collapse


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[kalm]

Biden gives Dems their best chance to beat Trump out of the current field. If they nominate anybody else, Trump wins.

I don't yet know how to call it if Biden is the nominee. My gut is the Biden would win but then I also called Hillary in a landslide so what the hell do I know?

Biden might be the best chance but the last election, and hell even the black man without much of a history and a Muslim sounding name taught us that practically anything can happen.

[HI54UNI]

Biden may be in the lead now but can the gaffemaster keep from putting his foot in his mouth for the next 8-12 months. I doubt it.

[GannonFan]

HOLY COW @ the Biden bump in Quinnipiac

If it holds.... wow- I’ll go ahead and concede to Ivy early

All he needs to do is just bait Trump and nobody in the Dem field will catch him. Heck, in the Dem debates he could even hit Harris or The Indian with that condescending laugh he used on Ryan and the dip it would cause him with the wimmin wouldn’t matter

The numbers will probably tighten some but his initial polling after officially entering is impressive


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Maybe we should start a new poll on which of the 21 announced Donk candidates will get out first, now that Biden is in. Probably one of the nimrods like Inslee or Swalwell or Yang who never should have gotten in to begin with.

Trump is probably shitting his pants right now, with Biden in and the legal wolves howling after his business records. He can’t pull that “Little Marco” or “Lyin’ Ted” crap on Biden.

But does Biden bring out the voters? He's still a really old white man (he'll be over 80 by the time his term is over) who's been in government for close to 50 years. He's the epitome of Democratic Party establishment. Does that excite voters? I agree, he'll do better in the Trump baiting stuff than other candidates, but will he excite people enough to come out and vote? Kerry went with the "not Bush" style and Romney went with the "not Obama" style and neither of them are former Presidents now.

[Baldy]

Trump is beloved... even by those who claim to dislike him
He'll get votes from people who will say they aren't even voting for him (See: Seattlegriz)

Racism is a very powerful political tool. A Trump victory would not be shocking....but it would definitely be a HUIGE black eye on our country. It would lead to BIG changes in the way that we govern down the road....and probably pretty much kill true patriotism in this country. Trump's legacy will be him exposing the weaknesses in our Constitution, laws and government.

Damn, jeff. You don't realize how right you are. Jesse Jackson, Al Shaprton, and the like have been slinging that hammer for years now. Not only have they turned racism into a powerful political too, they have turned it into a very successful multi-billion dollar business.

[Ivytalk]

Maybe we should start a new poll on which of the 21 announced Donk candidates will get out first, now that Biden is in. Probably one of the nimrods like Inslee or Swalwell or Yang who never should have gotten in to begin with.

Trump is probably shitting his pants right now, with Biden in and the legal wolves howling after his business records. He can’t pull that “Little Marco” or “Lyin’ Ted” crap on Biden.

But does Biden bring out the voters? He's still a really old white man (he'll be over 80 by the time his term is over) who's been in government for close to 50 years. He's the epitome of Democratic Party establishment. Does that excite voters? I agree, he'll do better in the Trump baiting stuff than other candidates, but will he excite people enough to come out and vote? Kerry went with the "not Bush" style and Romney went with the "not Obama" style and neither of them are former Presidents now.

If he puts Harris on the ticket, he’ll bring out more than enough minority voters to win. If he puts another old white guy on the ticket, who knows? He still might split off enough blue collar types to flip PA, MI, and WI back into the Donk column.

[GannonFan]

But does Biden bring out the voters? He's still a really old white man (he'll be over 80 by the time his term is over) who's been in government for close to 50 years. He's the epitome of Democratic Party establishment. Does that excite voters? I agree, he'll do better in the Trump baiting stuff than other candidates, but will he excite people enough to come out and vote? Kerry went with the "not Bush" style and Romney went with the "not Obama" style and neither of them are former Presidents now.

If he puts Harris on the ticket, he’ll bring out more than enough minority voters to win. If he puts another old white guy on the ticket, who knows? He still might split off enough blue collar types to flip PA, MI, and WI back into the Donk column.

Good point, with his age the VP is actually pretty significant. And there are plenty of identity candidates already campaigning that would fill out the ticket nicely and offset the old white part of the ticket he has covered.

[Pwns]

How nutty is it you've got maybe the most vulnerable presidential incumbent in US history and there's still so much uncertainty? The Democrats can't be counted on to make a slam dunk. If Trump wins we're getting exactly what we deserve.

[Ivytalk]

One thing is for certain: If Biden gets the nod, the State of Delaware will go right into the shitter, especially Sussex County beach towns. Biden lives in Rehoboth now, as I understand it. Oodles of tourists, journalists, security types, and curiosity-seekers will clog the place even more than it now is.

[mainejeff]

Racism is a very powerful political tool. A Trump victory would not be shocking....but it would definitely be a HUIGE black eye on our country. It would lead to BIG changes in the way that we govern down the road....and probably pretty much kill true patriotism in this country. Trump's legacy will be him exposing the weaknesses in our Constitution, laws and government.

Damn, jeff. You don't realize how right you are. Jesse Jackson, Al Shaprton, and the like have been slinging that hammer for years now. Not only have they turned racism into a powerful political too, they have turned it into a very successful multi-billion dollar business.

But Trump has become the absolute best at it!

[Baldy]

Damn, jeff. You don't realize how right you are. Jesse Jackson, Al Shaprton, and the like have been slinging that hammer for years now. Not only have they turned racism into a powerful political too, they have turned it into a very successful multi-billion dollar business.

But Trump has become the absolute best at it!

The ignorant certainly think so...

[css75]

Trump is beloved... even by those who claim to dislike him
He'll get votes from people who will say they aren't even voting for him (See: Seattlegriz)

Racism is a very powerful political tool. A Trump victory would not be shocking....but it would definitely be a HUIGE black eye on our country. It would lead to BIG changes in the way that we govern down the road....and probably pretty much kill true patriotism in this country. Trump's legacy will be him exposing the weaknesses in our Constitution, laws and government.

The racist playing the race card again.


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[css75]

Biden ran a couple other times, this run will go as well as those.


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[GannonFan]

If he puts Harris on the ticket, he’ll bring out more than enough minority voters to win. If he puts another old white guy on the ticket, who knows? He still might split off enough blue collar types to flip PA, MI, and WI back into the Donk column.

Good point, with his age the VP is actually pretty significant. And there are plenty of identity candidates already campaigning that would fill out the ticket nicely and offset the old white part of the ticket he has covered.

Just thinking back to this, though, there will still be a significant backlash from the parts of the left that will see a ticket headed by a really old white guy with a woman, and a woman of color as well, relegated to the back of the bus, er, I mean the back of the ticket. If Joe Biden is elected, he'll be one year older, at his swearing in, that Reagan was when Reagan left the White House. That's pretty old. Even the Catholic Church makes Cardinals retire many years younger than Biden will be. Meanwhile you have a perfectly experienced woman candidate who will have to play second fiddle to Biden and some will see that is the case just because Biden is male. That's not necessarily the foundation of an enthusiastic groundswell of voters, especially voters in the key states where the Dems need to win. Padding the margin of victory in CA and NY won't make the needle move in the Electoral College.

[JohnStOnge]

Biden gives Dems their best chance to beat Trump out of the current field. If they nominate anybody else, Trump wins.

I don't yet know how to call it if Biden is the nominee. My gut is the Biden would win but then I also called Hillary in a landslide so what the hell do I know?

I don't think the idea that if the Democrats nominate anybody else Trump will win is a done deal at all. And I'm not a person who said Hillary would win by a landslide or anything else. I posted on this board on election eve that the outcome was uncertain. And I consistently posted, over time, that it was uncertain before that.

I do think that Biden appears to be the best option right now. But ANYBODY who opposes Trump in a general election would have a chance if the election were held today. You can see that again in the recent ABC News/Washington Post (Gold Standard) poll conducted April 22 - 25 (https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conte ... mp2020.pdf).

Note that 28% said they would definitely vote for Trump vs. 55% saying the would definitely NOT vote for Trump. There is a caveat in that 66% of those who said they would definitely NOT vote for Trump were waiting to see who the Democrat is going to be before they say they'll definitely vote for the Democrat. But, I mean, what is the likely outcome of that if they say they're definitely NOT going to vote for Trump?

It's just not a good picture for Trump. He's a weak candidate. ANYBODY would have a chance to beat him because most people do NOT want him as President.

[CID1990]

Did JSO say anything new?


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[JohnStOnge]

Did JSO say anything new?


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Yes. I cited the most recent A+ rated ABC News/Washington Post poll indicating the problem Trump has with most of the population not wanting him to be President. Unless something changes dramatically in a situation that has remained largely constant since he got elected, ANYBODY who gets nominated by the Democrats will have a good chance to beat him. Some better than others. But most people do NOT want him as President. He's the only President in the history of polling to have done as consistently badly as he has done in both Job Approval and Favorability to this point in his term. He is NOT a strong candidate.

I will admit that the Democrats are screwing up by virtue of having SO many candidates and having their ideological purity tests going on. And the stuff about some percentage NOT wanting it to be a White Male no matter what. If they were playing against a reasonably strong candidate I'd say they have no chance. But they are not playing against a reasonably strong candidate.

[Ivytalk]

Good point, with his age the VP is actually pretty significant. And there are plenty of identity candidates already campaigning that would fill out the ticket nicely and offset the old white part of the ticket he has covered.

Just thinking back to this, though, there will still be a significant backlash from the parts of the left that will see a ticket headed by a really old white guy with a woman, and a woman of color as well, relegated to the back of the bus, er, I mean the back of the ticket. If Joe Biden is elected, he'll be one year older, at his swearing in, that Reagan was when Reagan left the White House. That's pretty old. Even the Catholic Church makes Cardinals retire many years younger than Biden will be. Meanwhile you have a perfectly experienced woman candidate who will have to play second fiddle to Biden and some will see that is the case just because Biden is male. That's not necessarily the foundation of an enthusiastic groundswell of voters, especially voters in the key states where the Dems need to win. Padding the margin of victory in CA and NY won't make the needle move in the Electoral College.

“Perfectly experienced,” my arse. Relative to Obama, maybe. She is a first-term Senator, and she was California AG. So she’s never really run anything. Putting her in the Veep slot won’t offend anyone and will bring out the minority vote. Then Joe will throw a thrombo, and she’ll be in.

[CID1990]

Did JSO say anything new?


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Yes. I cited the most recent A+ rated ABC News/Washington Post poll indicating the problem Trump has with most of the population not wanting him to be President. Unless something changes dramatically in a situation that has remained largely constant since he got elected, ANYBODY who gets nominated by the Democrats will have a good chance to beat him. Some better than others. But most people do NOT want him as President. He's the only President in the history of polling to have done as consistently badly as he has done in both Job Approval and Favorability to this point in his term. He is NOT a strong candidate.

I will admit that the Democrats are screwing up by virtue of having SO many candidates and having their ideological purity tests going on. And the stuff about some percentage NOT wanting it to be a White Male no matter what. If they were playing against a reasonably strong candidate I'd say they have no chance. But they are not playing against a reasonably strong candidate.

I need an outside ruling. You can't rule on your own posts.

[mainejeff]

I think that it is safe to say that beating Trump will be an uphill battle. He is one of the biggest celebrities ever in a country that worships celebrities and can't get enough of celebrities. But the most important aspect will once again be the Supreme Court....my prediction is that the next President will have the opportunity to seat 2 Supreme Court justices with RBG and ??? (Thomas or Roberts is my guess). White straight male America will have this and only this in mind when they go into the voting booth.

[Gil Dobie]