The Official "Making America Great Again" Thread

[BDKJMU]

4 more years

Yep. Gallup:
April 2011 Obama approval rating 44%
April 2019 Trump approval rating 46%
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/g ... 6-percent/

[Ivytalk]

JSO with more useless poll analytics in 3-2-1...

[SDHornet]

Wager?

as long as it's something ridiculous like - loser wears a bikini to the airport and hands out golf tees

[JohnStOnge]

You can huff and puff all you want. There is no way just looking at the data would lead one to think something changed in the trend around the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017. Again: Anybody just looking at the data would say there was a change around the end of 2009 and the beginning of 2010. That's when the trend changed from an increasing unemployment rate to a decreasing rate. Then a downward trend started that has continued through this point. There is not the SLIGHTEST indication that the trend changed around the time Trump took office.

Again, continuing into uncharted territory. For a supposed “data” guy you sure are stupid.

Let's look at the unemployment rate trend again:



Again: It would be ridiculous to say that something happened around the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017 to change things. THAT would be stupid. It's just not there.

Doesn't matter if the trend continues into "uncharted territory." It didn't change around the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017. Are you going to argue that it did?

[AZGrizFan]

Again, continuing into uncharted territory. For a supposed “data” guy you sure are stupid.

Let's look at the unemployment rate trend again:



Again: It would be ridiculous to say that something happened around the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017 to change things. THAT would be stupid. It's just not there.

Doesn't matter if the trend continues into "uncharted territory." It didn't change around the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017. Are you going to argue that it did?

Doesn’t matter? See John, that’s where you go full retard. Again, if it was so simple just to “continue the trend”, why has no president in the past 50 years been able to? Are you ever going to answer that simple question?

[CID1990]

Maybe. Saying he shouldn't be impeached is a bit different than saying somebody would vote for him.

Almost nobody admitted they voted for him last time and he won...
I don't see how that changes

Trump polling information is notoriously skewed
because he gets about 66% of his votes from people who say they aren't voting for him



Trust me - 4 more years

The people who claim to have not voted for Trump who actually did - reminds me of a joke an old, late friend of mine used to tell

He was a Navy SEAL in the Vietnam War - back when they were frogmen and riding around on bass boats in the Mekong Delta shooting at people

He used to say "There were only a thousand or so SEALs in Vietnam and I've probably met 10,000 of them."

[CAA Flagship]

Nothing to see here. Move along.

But Trump is a racist!!!

[JohnStOnge]

Trump polling information is notoriously skewed

No it's not. People keep saying that and it's just not true. I posted over and over again on the polls. Especially when one looked at the national polls. They were correct on who would win the overall vote.

Same kind of thing in the Republican primaries. The polls actually slightly OVER predicted how Trump would do. There were NO Republican primary polls that had some other candidate winning a State then Trump actually won. I think there were two where the polls had Trump winning and some other candidate won.

This thing where there's this big skew where polls significantly under predicted how Trump would do has no basis in reality. The RealClearPolitics average of polls had it as Clinton by 3.3 percentage points and she won it by 2.1 percentage points. So 1.1 percentage points off. But that's well within what one would expect. For example: In 2012 the RealClearPolitics average of polls had it as Obama by 0.7 percentage points and he won it by 3.9 percentage pints. So 2.2 percentage points off.

There was no indication, at all, that polls were "unusually" off with respect to Trump.

People keep sayng that stuff about people not admitting they would vote for Trump and there is just nothing in the comparing the polling to the actual results to validate that.

[JohnStOnge]

Almost nobody admitted they voted for him last time

Just not true. Exit polls have 46% of people saying they voted for him.

[CID1990]

Trump polling information is notoriously skewed

No it's not. People keep saying that and it's just not true. I posted over and over again on the polls. Especially when one looked at the national polls. They were correct on who would win the overall vote.

Same kind of thing in the Republican primaries. The polls actually slightly OVER predicted how Trump would do. There were NO Republican primary polls that had some other candidate winning a State then Trump actually won. I think there were two where the polls had Trump winning and some other candidate won.

This thing where there's this big skew where polls significantly under predicted how Trump would do has no basis in reality. The RealClearPolitics average of polls had it as Clinton by 3.3 percentage points and she won it by 2.1 percentage points. So 1.1 percentage points off. But that's well within what one would expect. For example: In 2012 the RealClearPolitics average of polls had it as Obama by 0.7 percentage points and he won it by 3.9 percentage pints. So 2.2 percentage points off.

There was no indication, at all, that polls were "unusually" off with respect to Trump.

People keep sayng that stuff about people not admitting they would vote for Trump and there is just nothing in the comparing the polling to the actual results to validate that.

Incorrect


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[Ibanez]

Trump polling information is notoriously skewed

No it's not. People keep saying that and it's just not true. I posted over and over again on the polls. Especially when one looked at the national polls. They were correct on who would win the overall vote.

Same kind of thing in the Republican primaries. The polls actually slightly OVER predicted how Trump would do. There were NO Republican primary polls that had some other candidate winning a State then Trump actually won. I think there were two where the polls had Trump winning and some other candidate won.

This thing where there's this big skew where polls significantly under predicted how Trump would do has no basis in reality. The RealClearPolitics average of polls had it as Clinton by 3.3 percentage points and she won it by 2.1 percentage points. So 1.1 percentage points off. But that's well within what one would expect. For example: In 2012 the RealClearPolitics average of polls had it as Obama by 0.7 percentage points and he won it by 3.9 percentage pints. So 2.2 percentage points off.

There was no indication, at all, that polls were "unusually" off with respect to Trump.

People keep sayng that stuff about people not admitting they would vote for Trump and there is just nothing in the comparing the polling to the actual results to validate that.

Is it possible those people are lying?

[JohnStOnge]

No it's not. People keep saying that and it's just not true. I posted over and over again on the polls. Especially when one looked at the national polls. They were correct on who would win the overall vote.

Same kind of thing in the Republican primaries. The polls actually slightly OVER predicted how Trump would do. There were NO Republican primary polls that had some other candidate winning a State then Trump actually won. I think there were two where the polls had Trump winning and some other candidate won.

This thing where there's this big skew where polls significantly under predicted how Trump would do has no basis in reality. The RealClearPolitics average of polls had it as Clinton by 3.3 percentage points and she won it by 2.1 percentage points. So 1.1 percentage points off. But that's well within what one would expect. For example: In 2012 the RealClearPolitics average of polls had it as Obama by 0.7 percentage points and he won it by 3.9 percentage pints. So 2.2 percentage points off.

There was no indication, at all, that polls were "unusually" off with respect to Trump.

People keep sayng that stuff about people not admitting they would vote for Trump and there is just nothing in the comparing the polling to the actual results to validate that.

Is it possible those people are lying?

It's always possible that SOME people lie. But if there was any effect of that with respect to under estimating Trump in 2016 it was small. It's very easy to just look at the realclearpolitics average of polls for the overall national vote in 2016 and compare it to the actual vote.

There tends to be a little bit of underestimating for any candidate in polls because there are those who are either undecided or won't respond included. So to me the important thing to look at is the margin. So in 2016 the final Real Clear Politics average of polls had Clinton at 45.5 and Trump at 42.2. The actual result was Clinton 48.2 and Trump 46.1. The margin according to the polls was Clinton by 3.3 and the actual margin was Clinton by 2.1. So the polls, on average, undershot Trump's performance by 1.1 percentage points in terms of their point estimates without considering their margins of error.

The same thing happened, on average, with the individual State polls. I think it's fair to look only at polls completed during the final week of the election. And when you do that and take it State by State the State by State polls undershot Trump's margin by 1.4 percentage points. A little bit more but not a lot.

And that happened in the context of a situation where exit polling showed that people who made up their minds late broke for Trump. So that could be a factor in the pre-election polls SLIGHTLY underestimating Trump.

There's also historical perspective. If you look at things the same way for the 2012 election the Real Clear Politics average of polls undershot Obama's national performance by 3.2 percentage points.

The bottom line is that this urban myth about there being some significant effect whereby Trump's support level is under represented in polls just is not supported by the data. When you actually look at the polls and look at Trump's performance it's just not there.

[Ivytalk]

Is it possible those people are lying?

It's always possible that SOME people lie. But if there was any effect of that with respect to under estimating Trump in 2016 it was small. It's very easy to just look at the realclearpolitics average of polls for the overall national vote in 2016 and compare it to the actual vote.

There tends to be a little bit of underestimating for any candidate in polls because there are those who are either undecided or won't respond included. So to me the important thing to look at is the margin. So in 2016 the final Real Clear Politics average of polls had Clinton at 45.5 and Trump at 42.2. The actual result was Clinton 48.2 and Trump 46.1. The margin according to the polls was Clinton by 3.3 and the actual margin was Clinton by 2.1. So the polls, on average, undershot Trump's performance by 1.1 percentage points in terms of their point estimates without considering their margins of error.

The same thing happened, on average, with the individual State polls. I think it's fair to look only at polls completed during the final week of the election. And when you do that and take it State by State the State by State polls undershot Trump's margin by 1.4 percentage points. A little bit more but not a lot.

And that happened in the context of a situation where exit polling showed that people who made up their minds late broke for Trump. So that could be a factor in the pre-election polls SLIGHTLY underestimating Trump.

There's also historical perspective. If you look at things the same way for the 2012 election the Real Clear Politics average of polls undershot Obama's national performance by 3.2 percentage points.

The bottom line is that this urban myth about there being some significant effect whereby Trump's support level is under represented in polls just is not supported by the data. When you actually look at the polls and look at Trump's performance it's just not there.

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[kalm]

It's always possible that SOME people lie. But if there was any effect of that with respect to under estimating Trump in 2016 it was small. It's very easy to just look at the realclearpolitics average of polls for the overall national vote in 2016 and compare it to the actual vote.

There tends to be a little bit of underestimating for any candidate in polls because there are those who are either undecided or won't respond included. So to me the important thing to look at is the margin. So in 2016 the final Real Clear Politics average of polls had Clinton at 45.5 and Trump at 42.2. The actual result was Clinton 48.2 and Trump 46.1. The margin according to the polls was Clinton by 3.3 and the actual margin was Clinton by 2.1. So the polls, on average, undershot Trump's performance by 1.1 percentage points in terms of their point estimates without considering their margins of error.

The same thing happened, on average, with the individual State polls. I think it's fair to look only at polls completed during the final week of the election. And when you do that and take it State by State the State by State polls undershot Trump's margin by 1.4 percentage points. A little bit more but not a lot.

And that happened in the context of a situation where exit polling showed that people who made up their minds late broke for Trump. So that could be a factor in the pre-election polls SLIGHTLY underestimating Trump.

There's also historical perspective. If you look at things the same way for the 2012 election the Real Clear Politics average of polls undershot Obama's national performance by 3.2 percentage points.

The bottom line is that this urban myth about there being some significant effect whereby Trump's support level is under represented in polls just is not supported by the data. When you actually look at the polls and look at Trump's performance it's just not there.

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JSO showed his math. You guys should show yours or...

[Ivytalk]

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JSO showed his math. You guys should show yours or...

Nobody cares, Mr. Omar.

[kalm]

JSO showed his math. You guys should show yours or...

Nobody cares, Mr. Omar.

Right...so you’ve got nothing.

[UNI88]

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JSO showed his math. You guys should show yours or...

JSO is an example of confirmation bias. He only considers information that supports his position/opinion and discounts or completely ignores any information that contradicts it. Plus he's a fvcking broken record spouting the same sh!t over and over. Why should I bother to read his posts? I've read 90% of them already. Why read a new 10,000 word diatribe hoping against hope that it's in the 10% (or less) with new information? I have better things to do with my time.

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[mainejeff]

I wish that EVERYONE would lie when it comes to polling. It's total BS that we have a cottage industry trying to reveal the votes of people which should only be known to them and the people they decide to tell privately.

[AZGrizFan]

I wish that EVERYONE would lie when it comes to polling. It's total BS that we have a cottage industry trying to reveal the votes of people which should only be known to them and the people they decide to tell privately.

Agreed. I lie every time I'm asked.

[AZGrizFan]

JSO showed his math. You guys should show yours or...

JSO is an example of confirmation bias. He only considers information that supports his position/opinion and discounts or completely ignores any information that contradicts it. Plus he's a fvcking broken record spouting the same sh!t over and over. Why should I bother to read his posts? I've read 90% of them already. Why read a new 10,000 word diatribe hoping against hope that it's in the 10% (or less) with new information? I have better things to do with my time.

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That attitude will NOT ingrain you to your newfound friends in the communist state of Oregon, 88.

[BDKJMU]

I wish that EVERYONE would lie when it comes to polling. It's total BS that we have a cottage industry trying to reveal the votes of people which should only be known to them and the people they decide to tell privately.

Agreed. I lie every time I'm asked.

Same here. Imagine if enough people lied to political pollsters. It would be the end of political polling, and the world would be a better place...

[89Hen]

Some more polling numbers. POTUS approval rating for April of third year of term going back to Carter...

George H.W. Bush 79 Apr 1991
George W. Bush 70 Apr 2003
Bill Clinton 48 Apr 1995
Donald Trump 46 Apr 2019
Barack Obama 44 Apr 2011
Ronald Reagan 42 Apr 1983
Jimmy Carter 40 Apr 1979

[Chizzang]

Some more polling numbers. POTUS approval rating for April of third year of term going back to Carter...

George H.W. Bush 79 Apr 1991
George W. Bush 70 Apr 2003
Bill Clinton 48 Apr 1995
Donald Trump 46 Apr 2019
Barack Obama 44 Apr 2011
Ronald Reagan 42 Apr 1983
Jimmy Carter 40 Apr 1979

Look it's pretty simple... Trump is going to win the primary (period, the end)
and then continue his presidency



I don't care who says they "aren't" voting for him

[JohnStOnge]

Some more polling numbers. POTUS approval rating for April of third year of term going back to Carter...

George H.W. Bush 79 Apr 1991
George W. Bush 70 Apr 2003
Bill Clinton 48 Apr 1995
Donald Trump 46 Apr 2019
Barack Obama 44 Apr 2011
Ronald Reagan 42 Apr 1983
Jimmy Carter 40 Apr 1979

Look it's pretty simple... Trump is going to win the primary (period, the end)
and then continue his presidency



I don't care who says they "aren't" voting for him

We shall see. But don't kid yourself with this "people are lying to pollsters" stuff. When you look at polls just prior to a national election they are always as close as you could reasonably expect them to be. If we're at election even 2020 and Trump is down something like 7 percentage points in the overall polls he's going to lose.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

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