Border Controversy

[BDKJMU]

Here's what I think is a good analysis of the apprehensions trend:

https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/new-b ... ed-levels/

Only thing is the article says that the 132,887 apprehended in May, 2019, was the highest number since 140,062 were apprehended in April 2005 but they show a chart (Figure 1) indicating that more than 150,000 were apprehended during some month between October, 2005 and June, 2006.

Anyway the basic point is that there's been an upsurge. It hasn't reached to rate of the early 2000s yet but it might be getting there.

Its not the # of apprehensions causing the problem. Its that a much higher percentage are OTM’s and so called asylum seekers (word has gotten out on the magic words to get put on the asylum track). That’s why so many more are being detained- the massive backlog to process and give hearings to. In the past the overwhelming majority were Mexicans that could simply be VR’ed within 24 hrs..

[JohnStOnge]

Here's what I think is a good analysis of the apprehensions trend:

https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/new-b ... ed-levels/

Only thing is the article says that the 132,887 apprehended in May, 2019, was the highest number since 140,062 were apprehended in April 2005 but they show a chart (Figure 1) indicating that more than 150,000 were apprehended during some month between October, 2005 and June, 2006.

Anyway the basic point is that there's been an upsurge. It hasn't reached to rate of the early 2000s yet but it might be getting there.

Its not the # of apprehensions causing the problem. Its that a much higher percentage are OTM’s and so called asylum seekers (word has gotten out on the magic words to get put on the asylum track). That’s why so many more are being detained- the massive backlog to process and give hearings to. In the past the overwhelming majority were Mexicans that could simply be VR’ed within 24 hrs..

The Trump Administration's decision to detain is a factor. They don't have to do that. You can argue that they are doing the right thing but it is different. My understanding is that the previous practice for people seeking asylum was to release them and tell them to show up for a hearing. One can argue that they weren't showing up for hearings and so Trump is doing the right thing in detaining them. But there is a change in practice associated with the Trump Administration.

[CID1990]

The crisis (which everyone now acknowledges) is that the last three months have seen record monthly numbers of border crossings and apprehensions - it is literally a tsunami of people.

My understanding is that it is not record numbers. It is still a lower rate than it was in the early 2000s. My understanding is that it is an upsurge as compared to recent years and also different in nature in that it is families asking for asylum instead of Mexicans jumping the border to look for jobs.

Below is a graph of apprehensions by year. I'm guessing 2019 will be higher than 2018 but will not approach 2000. Also, while the graph below is annual rather than monthly, I'm guessing there were months during 2000 that had higher numbers of apprehensions than any month during 2019.

Your understanding is wrong.

CBP is overwhelmed and that has not happened before.


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[css75]

Totally a valid point 89hen...
which I think is why we've also got a 50% take up rate on "Border Crisis" vs. this is old news and who cares



We just happen to have a president that feels very strongly about the ongoing immigration trend
and not so strongly about the Chinese Hoax

And I'm OK with that.

As am I. Notice the dip in the 50s. This was when Eisenhower implemented operation wet back, sending many back home.


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[CID1990]

So border arrivals have suddenly dropped off

The “Paper O’ Record” wonders why:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/10/us/b ... e=Homepage

It takes several paragraphs to get to it, but the answer is buried in there.

Mexico started mysteriously cooperating a couple weeks ago.


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[GannonFan]

So border arrivals have suddenly dropped off

The “Paper O’ Record” wonders why:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/10/us/b ... e=Homepage

It takes several paragraphs to get to it, but the answer is buried in there.

Mexico started mysteriously cooperating a couple weeks ago.


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NPR covered it too - had a guy on the Mexico border with Guatamala, was saying how noticeable it was with the number of Mexican National Guard at the most obvious crossing points. Still a ton of other border they can't cover, but a lot of it was jungle and not really able to be crossed easily. Even the NPR guy commented on how effective it appeared to be in terms of eliminating illegal crossings on that border. Of course, the NPR host then also said that this would benefit smugglers and other folks who make people pay to get them across the border.

[CID1990]

So border arrivals have suddenly dropped off

The “Paper O’ Record” wonders why:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/10/us/b ... e=Homepage

It takes several paragraphs to get to it, but the answer is buried in there.

Mexico started mysteriously cooperating a couple weeks ago.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

NPR covered it too - had a guy on the Mexico border with Guatamala, was saying how noticeable it was with the number of Mexican National Guard at the most obvious crossing points. Still a ton of other border they can't cover, but a lot of it was jungle and not really able to be crossed easily. Even the NPR guy commented on how effective it appeared to be in terms of eliminating illegal crossings on that border. Of course, the NPR host then also said that this would benefit smugglers and other folks who make people pay to get them across the border.

It will be a negligible benefit to the smugglers - they quickly price themselves out of business with the huddled masses when it becomes harder to cross. I think the NPR host was offering an opinion not based too closely on experience.

[SDHornet]

Haven't these folks been pouring into this country by the thousands for four decades now..?
A crisis implies a significant new change right..?

what's the "new" part of this "crisis" ?

I know, right?

89 FTW.

[SDHornet]

So border arrivals have suddenly dropped off

The “Paper O’ Record” wonders why:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/10/us/b ... e=Homepage

It takes several paragraphs to get to it, but the answer is buried in there.

Mexico started mysteriously cooperating a couple weeks ago.


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Pray-tell who asked Mexico to do that?


More importantly how and why did Mexico comply with that request?

[CAA Flagship]

So border arrivals have suddenly dropped off

The “Paper O’ Record” wonders why:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/10/us/b ... e=Homepage

It takes several paragraphs to get to it, but the answer is buried in there.

Mexico started mysteriously cooperating a couple weeks ago.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

NPR covered it too - had a guy on the Mexico border with Guatamala, was saying how noticeable it was with the number of Mexican National Guard at the most obvious crossing points. Still a ton of other border they can't cover, but a lot of it was jungle and not really able to be crossed easily. Even the NPR guy commented on how effective it appeared to be in terms of eliminating illegal crossings on that border. Of course, the NPR host then also said that this would benefit smugglers and other folks who make people pay to get them across the border.

This is a numbers game. Pretty sure the smugglers could never keep up the the numbers that came across an open border.