Quarantine - Could it be done here?

[Col Hogan]

As the number of Coronavirus cases multiply in Wuhan China, the government has ordered a total quarantine of the city of 11 million people...

Wuhan's public health authorities say they are in a "state of war" as they quarantine the Chinese city in an attempt to halt the spread of a never-before-seen strain of coronavirus.

"Strictly implement emergency response requirements, enter into a state of war and implement wartime measures to resolutely curb the spread of this epidemic," urged a committee of Wuhan's top officials. "Homes must be segregated, neighbors must be watched."

https://www.npr.org/2020/01/23/79878967 ... s-multiply

Imagine if this virus outbreak started here in the United States...in a mid-sized city like Spokane Washington, or Austin Texas or Lansing Michigan...

Could a total quarantine be carried out...legally...logistically...morally???

Think about what you would do if you lived in one of those cities and the President had just ordered a total quarantine...or the governor...

Something to think about...from 1999 to 2002, I was the deputy commander of a special unit trained to work with civilian authorities if a chemical or biological incident happened...

In our free time, we’d “what if” different types of situations, and a quarantine was one of those situations...and we could never figure out the answer to the questions of could it be done...

Thoughts?

[JohnStOnge]

I don't know before but I doubt that coronavirus is as dangerous as many of the influenza viruses. I doubt that it is as contagious in terms of human to human transmission. In that regard there is a statement from the WHO at https://www.healthline.com/health-news/ ... han-by-CDC:

We know that there is human-to-human transmission in China, but for now it appears limited to family groups and health workers caring for infected patients. At this time there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission outside China, but that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t happen,

With influenza, there is no question about human to human transmission. It's extremely contagious. I think coronavirus is primarily a non human animal virus. It can infect humans but that's not its ideal target.

[kalm]

There’s already been a reported case in Seattle.

[Col Hogan]

There’s already been a reported case in Seattle.

But is Seattle being quarantined?

[∞∞∞]

Seems like it was done during the 1918 pandemic of Spanish Flu, and a search on the CDC site says most states have large-scale quarantine laws in place, as well as Federal law which is "supreme" (CDC's wording).

I don't know about the logistics, but it looks like the legality exists.

[93henfan]

It would be easy to quarantine Delmarva. You just have to shut down seven bridges.

[kalm]

There’s already been a reported case in Seattle.

But is Seattle being quarantined?

God only hopes.

I don’t see how it could be done. It’s a minor inconvenience of living in a free society. Wasn’t this covered in WWZ and that awful Dustin Hoffman movie from the 90’s?

[kalm]

It would be easy to quarantine Delmarva. You just have to shut down seven bridges.

I’m picturing you riding around on your lawn tractor picking off Zekes on the edge of your property.

[93henfan]

It would be easy to quarantine Delmarva. You just have to shut down seven bridges.

I’m picturing you riding around on your lawn tractor picking off Zekes on the edge of your property.

Go on.

[CID1990]

We have a few cases here now.

Don Mueang airport is about 2 miles from my house and it handles most domestic flights and international flights within Asia. The have a daily flight from Wuhan. Most of those folks go straight into Bangkok, but we also have a hospital near my house that does a lot of medical tourism stuff and Chinese are the biggest customers. We pretty much stay in our bubble with the other expats and wealthy Thais so unless things get badly out of hand we probably won’t have issues.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[AZGrizFan]

I don't know before but I doubt that coronavirus is as dangerous as many of the influenza viruses. I doubt that it is as contagious in terms of human to human transmission. In that regard there is a statement from the WHO at https://www.healthline.com/health-news/ ... han-by-CDC:

We know that there is human-to-human transmission in China, but for now it appears limited to family groups and health workers caring for infected patients. At this time there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission outside China, but that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t happen,

With influenza, there is no question about human to human transmission. It's extremely contagious. I think coronavirus is primarily a non human animal virus. It can infect humans but that's not its ideal target.

Brilliant analysis, Einstein.

[89Hen]

Legal, yes. Possible, probably not.

[CID1990]

I don't know before but I doubt that coronavirus is as dangerous as many of the influenza viruses. I doubt that it is as contagious in terms of human to human transmission. In that regard there is a statement from the WHO at https://www.healthline.com/health-news/ ... han-by-CDC:

We know that there is human-to-human transmission in China, but for now it appears limited to family groups and health workers caring for infected patients. At this time there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission outside China, but that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t happen,

With influenza, there is no question about human to human transmission. It's extremely contagious. I think coronavirus is primarily a non human animal virus. It can infect humans but that's not its ideal target.

Given an incubation period of about two weeks, it would be impossible to have verified human to human transmission outside China at this point

And... this analysis is already dated

Disappointed that this mess of an article actually came from WHO

[SDHornet]

I have a hard time seeing the logistics of quarantining a whole city here in the US being done. And by the time it was implemented, wouldn't it have spread to other places so the quarantine zone would grow, thus more logistics. So I guess the bigger question is could an entire state(s) be quarantined at a time? Seems impossible.

[dbackjon]

I have a hard time seeing the logistics of quarantining a whole city here in the US being done. And by the time it was implemented, wouldn't it have spread to other places so the quarantine zone would grow, thus more logistics. So I guess the bigger question is could an entire state(s) be quarantined at a time? Seems impossible.

Agreed. Ever read Stephen King's The Stand? Deals with the issue of how unworkable a quarantine is, and in most cases the virus has spread far beyond any quarantine area by the time one is set up.

We are a very mobile society - we drive/fly everywhere all the time. And we have an excellent road system, so way too many ingress/egress points.

Even a fairly isolated metro area like Phoenix, not only would you have to cover the freeways, you still have other paved roads, plus hundreds of dirt roads. And then you would get people trying to flee at all cost by ATV/horse/foot, etc.

[GannonFan]

I have a hard time seeing the logistics of quarantining a whole city here in the US being done. And by the time it was implemented, wouldn't it have spread to other places so the quarantine zone would grow, thus more logistics. So I guess the bigger question is could an entire state(s) be quarantined at a time? Seems impossible.

Agreed. Ever read Stephen King's The Stand? Deals with the issue of how unworkable a quarantine is, and in most cases the virus has spread far beyond any quarantine area by the time one is set up.

We are a very mobile society - we drive/fly everywhere all the time. And we have an excellent road system, so way too many ingress/egress points.

Even a fairly isolated metro area like Phoenix, not only would you have to cover the freeways, you still have other paved roads, plus hundreds of dirt roads. And then you would get people trying to flee at all cost by ATV/horse/foot, etc.

Agreed, and good book. Let's hope we never have a virus that is truly extinction-level or we're royally screwed. I've watched enough zombie movies too to know that we have very little chance other than bunkering down inside a homemade fort.

[HI54UNI]

Are the Simpsons predicting the future again?

[AZGrizFan]

I have a hard time seeing the logistics of quarantining a whole city here in the US being done. And by the time it was implemented, wouldn't it have spread to other places so the quarantine zone would grow, thus more logistics. So I guess the bigger question is could an entire state(s) be quarantined at a time? Seems impossible.

Agreed. Ever read Stephen King's The Stand? Deals with the issue of how unworkable a quarantine is, and in most cases the virus has spread far beyond any quarantine area by the time one is set up.

We are a very mobile society - we drive/fly everywhere all the time. And we have an excellent road system, so way too many ingress/egress points.

Even a fairly isolated metro area like Phoenix, not only would you have to cover the freeways, you still have other paved roads, plus hundreds of dirt roads. And then you would get people trying to flee at all cost by ATV/horse/foot, etc.

Phoenix is no more "isolated" than SLC or Vegas or Albequerque or Houston or Denver or Seattle or Spokane or.....

[CAA Flagship]

Agreed. Ever read Stephen King's The Stand? Deals with the issue of how unworkable a quarantine is, and in most cases the virus has spread far beyond any quarantine area by the time one is set up.

We are a very mobile society - we drive/fly everywhere all the time. And we have an excellent road system, so way too many ingress/egress points.

Even a fairly isolated metro area like Phoenix, not only would you have to cover the freeways, you still have other paved roads, plus hundreds of dirt roads. And then you would get people trying to flee at all cost by ATV/horse/foot, etc.

Phoenix is no more "isolated" than SLC or Vegas or Albequerque or Houston or Denver or Seattle or Spokane or.....

WC(b)

[JohnStOnge]

I don't know before but I doubt that coronavirus is as dangerous as many of the influenza viruses. I doubt that it is as contagious in terms of human to human transmission. In that regard there is a statement from the WHO at https://www.healthline.com/health-news/ ... han-by-CDC:



With influenza, there is no question about human to human transmission. It's extremely contagious. I think coronavirus is primarily a non human animal virus. It can infect humans but that's not its ideal target.

Brilliant analysis, Einstein.

Nothing wrong with expressing uncertainty when there is uncertainty. I'd done a little bit of Googling to see if I could get some kind of direct statement about how contagious it is as compared to influenza and couldn't find one in a few minutes. So I don't know for sure. But I doubt it's anywhere near as contagious as influenza just by virtue of reading a little about it now that it's made the news.

[JohnStOnge]

There’s already been a reported case in Seattle.

A second case has been confirmed in the Chicago area. However, in both cases, the person involved just recently returned to the United States from Wuhan, China.

I will use the "I don't know for sure" qualifier again but at this point I don't think they even know if any of the cases here or in China are the result of human to human transmission.

I think coronaviruses are primarily non human animal viruses that can sometimes make the jump to humans. Here is some information from CDC:

Coronaviruses are common in many different species of animals, including camels and bats. Rarely, these coronaviruses can evolve and infect humans and then spread between humans. Recent examples of this include SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV.

Most coronaviruses infect animals, but not people. In the future, one or more of these other coronaviruses could potentially evolve and spread to humans, as has happened in the past. We still don’t understand why only certain coronaviruses are able to infect people.

[CID1990]

There’s already been a reported case in Seattle.

A second case has been confirmed in the Chicago area. However, in both cases, the person involved just recently returned to the United States from Wuhan, China.

I will use the "I don't know for sure" qualifier again but at this point I don't think they even know if any of the cases here or in China are the result of human to human transmission.

I think coronaviruses are primarily non human animal viruses that can sometimes make the jump to humans. Here is some information from CDC:

Coronaviruses are common in many different species of animals, including camels and bats. Rarely, these coronaviruses can evolve and infect humans and then spread between humans. Recent examples of this include SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV.

Most coronaviruses infect animals, but not people. In the future, one or more of these other coronaviruses could potentially evolve and spread to humans, as has happened in the past. We still don’t understand why only certain coronaviruses are able to infect people.

[JohnStOnge]

A second case has been confirmed in the Chicago area. However, in both cases, the person involved just recently returned to the United States from Wuhan, China.

I will use the "I don't know for sure" qualifier again but at this point I don't think they even know if any of the cases here or in China are the result of human to human transmission.

I think coronaviruses are primarily non human animal viruses that can sometimes make the jump to humans. Here is some information from CDC:

Ok. It does look like they have identified person to person spread. However, there are questions as to how easily person to person spread occurs. Here is the risk assessment at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nC ... assessment:

Outbreaks of novel virus infections among people are always of public health concern. The risk from these outbreaks depends on characteristics of the virus, including whether and how well it spreads between people, the severity of resulting illness, and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccine or treatment medications).

Investigations are ongoing to learn more, but person-to-person spread of 2019-nCoV is occurring. It’s important to note that person-to-person spread can happen on a continuum. Some viruses are highly contagious (like measles), while other viruses are less so. It’s not clear yet how easily 2019-nCoV spreads from person-to-person. It’s important to know this in order to better assess the risk posed by this virus. While CDC considers this is a very serious public health threat, based on current information, the immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general American public is considered low at this time. Nevertheless, CDC is taking proactive preparedness precautions.

[CID1990]

Ok. It does look like they have identified person to person spread. However, there are questions as to how easily person to person spread occurs. Here is the risk assessment at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nC ... assessment:

Outbreaks of novel virus infections among people are always of public health concern. The risk from these outbreaks depends on characteristics of the virus, including whether and how well it spreads between people, the severity of resulting illness, and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccine or treatment medications).

Investigations are ongoing to learn more, but person-to-person spread of 2019-nCoV is occurring. It’s important to note that person-to-person spread can happen on a continuum. Some viruses are highly contagious (like measles), while other viruses are less so. It’s not clear yet how easily 2019-nCoV spreads from person-to-person. It’s important to know this in order to better assess the risk posed by this virus. While CDC considers this is a very serious public health threat, based on current information, the immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general American public is considered low at this time. Nevertheless, CDC is taking proactive preparedness precautions.

John,

You are misreading a lot of things in the WHO and CDC info. The only case in this epidemic that was not transferred from human to human was the index case. It is the same with retroviruses like Ebola.

Why not (for a change) just sit back and wait for CDC to fully get their reporting in a pile before posting all this diarrhea? Seriously. Their official reporting takes a strictly scientific position, which is to say “we have not verified actual human transmission yet” which means it has not yet been observed in a clinical sense.

CDC has a large presence here. We are dealing with CDC on a daily basis (as we did in Nigeria with Ebola). Believe it when I say - this latest Coronavirus is contagious via respiratory aerosols. The host is probably bats, but once the virus has mutated and jumped, it then is continually contagious to humans until it runs its course or mutates again.

[CID1990]

Full quarantine is next to impossible in our own society and the other free, mobile populations. Yet another example of how Liberty is messy and yet I would never change it.

In contrast, Wuhan is completely locked down and this was done in a couple days. Consider how the mainland Chinese live every day when their government is capable of that