You All Owe JSO an Apology

[kalm]

ba-ZINGA

Well one thing has been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt. Attorneys don't know WTF they're doing when running the country.

This is also very true.

Give me a hard nosed small business book keeper/office manager any day.

[AZGrizFan]

Well one thing has been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt. Attorneys don't know WTF they're doing when running the country.

This is also very true.

Give me a hard nosed small business book keeper/office manager any day.

I'm your man.

[SeattleGriz]

Trump's proving that to be true.

Do successful businesses routinely run huge deficits and never stay within their budgets?

Do successful businesses require one to work with Congress to pass a budget?

Trump's using America's might to his advantage, just like big business does.

[CID1990]

It is clear that Trump has signed on with the “deficits don’t matter” crowd

Soon he’ll be saying “for the children” a lot


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[Ivytalk]

ba-ZINGA

Well one thing has been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt. Attorneys don't know WTF they're doing when running the country.

[houndawg]

ba-ZINGA

Well one thing has been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt. Attorneys don't know WTF they're doing when running the country.

yeah we got us a businessman in charge now. Someone that doesn't believe in big spending and gubmint deficits.

[Aho Old Guy]

You were replying to my quote, there Slappy. Why don’t you take a true crack at the rest of what I wrote first and then I’ll answer your question.

But here’s a hint. The numbers aren’t supporting your argument.

Which part, specifically? Because I believe the numbers DO support my argument.

[JohnStOnge]

I am keeping my fingers crossed that we may start to see pushback on Trump's effort to create the impression that the economy was bad then he took office and made it good. Started with Morning Joe on MSNBC this morning. Joe Scarborough started off a segment by complaining that the media are letting Trump get away with that schtick. Had a guy come on to show a series of graphics along the lines of the kind I put on this board. One of them is below. Then as the day went on I saw a similar theme in other segments in other shows. Can't remember if it was all on MSNBC or some of it was on CNN. But it's the first time I've seen that theme emphasized to the extent I saw it emphasized today.

Bloomberg should pick up on it and start making ads with that theme. He obviously can afford it. Don't let Trump get away with trying to create the impression that there was some kind of big turnaround from bad to good associated with him taking office.

[CitadelGrad]

Comparing anything in Obama’s 8 years to now is like comparing apples and cumquats. The two situations couldn’t be more different. So JSO can suck it, even though he’s shown beyond a shadow of a doubt he doesn’t understand those intricacies.

It’s an imperfect comparison but which administration’s 7th year numbers would you like to compare it to? Trump can’t possibly be the only one who faced these type of headwinds?

I also find this point interesting:

There are two major segments (inventories and trade) that can swing widely in any quarter, which can either add or subtract substantially from the GDP calculation. A third, government’s contribution, doesn’t tend to have the same multiplier effect on the economy as consumer or business spending as military goods don’t increase productivity.

One metric to look at is the contribution from Personal Consumption Expenditures (or consumer spending) plus Gross Private Domestic Investment (or business investment) minus the Change in Private Inventories (since they can swing back and forth quarter to quarter), as I believe it gives a better indication of the underlying economy.

By making these changes it increases the growth rate in the June quarter, slightly hurts it for the September quarter and substantially decreases it for the December quarter

Tax cuts and military spending are short term boosts compared to other forms of government inputs like subsidized education and infrastructure.

JSO’s overall take wasn’t a denial of Trump’s initial performance it was a critique of the exuberance around it which is clearly based more on politics than economics. That performance at least right now is trending down.

We just need another New Deal. That worked out really well. Would you like to tell us what the economic multiplier effect was of Obama's stimulus package was?

[kalm]

It’s an imperfect comparison but which administration’s 7th year numbers would you like to compare it to? Trump can’t possibly be the only one who faced these type of headwinds?

I also find this point interesting:



Tax cuts and military spending are short term boosts compared to other forms of government inputs like subsidized education and infrastructure.

JSO’s overall take wasn’t a denial of Trump’s initial performance it was a critique of the exuberance around it which is clearly based more on politics than economics. That performance at least right now is trending down.

We just need another New Deal. That worked out really well. Would you like to tell us what the economic multiplier effect was of Obama's stimulus package was?

Sure...right after you tackle the new deal (since you brought it up). Good luck!

[CitadelGrad]

We just need another New Deal. That worked out really well. Would you like to tell us what the economic multiplier effect was of Obama's stimulus package was?

Sure...right after you tackle the new deal (since you brought it up). Good luck!

I don't need luck. I've sent you links to academic studies that determined FDR's New Deal policies turned a recession into a prolonged depression.

[kalm]

Sure...right after you tackle the new deal (since you brought it up). Good luck!

I don't need luck. I've sent you links to academic studies that determined FDR's New Deal policies turned a recession into a prolonged depression.

Well, send them again and I’ll poke holes in the analysis again.


We’ll start with fact that we’re still benefitting from a few of them today.

[AZGrizFan]

I am keeping my fingers crossed that we may start to see pushback on Trump's effort to create the impression that the economy was bad then he took office and made it good. Started with Morning Joe on MSNBC this morning. Joe Scarborough started off a segment by complaining that the media are letting Trump get away with that schtick. Had a guy come on to show a series of graphics along the lines of the kind I put on this board. One of them is below. Then as the day went on I saw a similar theme in other segments in other shows. Can't remember if it was all on MSNBC or some of it was on CNN. But it's the first time I've seen that theme emphasized to the extent I saw it emphasized today.

Bloomberg should pick up on it and start making ads with that theme. He obviously can afford it. Don't let Trump get away with trying to create the impression that there was some kind of big turnaround from bad to good associated with him taking office.

Longest economic expansion in the country's history.

Game/Set/Match to Donald T. Trump.

[Ibanez]

It’s an imperfect comparison but which administration’s 7th year numbers would you like to compare it to? Trump can’t possibly be the only one who faced these type of headwinds?

I also find this point interesting:



Tax cuts and military spending are short term boosts compared to other forms of government inputs like subsidized education and infrastructure.

JSO’s overall take wasn’t a denial of Trump’s initial performance it was a critique of the exuberance around it which is clearly based more on politics than economics. That performance at least right now is trending down.

We just need another New Deal. That worked out really well. Would you like to tell us what the economic multiplier effect was of Obama's stimulus package was?

This from a guy who wishes blacks were still enslaved.

[Ibanez]

Sure...right after you tackle the new deal (since you brought it up). Good luck!

I don't need luck. I've sent you links to academic studies that determined FDR's New Deal policies turned a recession into a prolonged depression.

Yeah, the TVA was such a bad deal. The repeal of Prohibition was awful...what a terrible policy. Multiple securities and banking reforms to PREVENT what had occurred on Black Friday have been disastrous.

Oh, and let's not forget the Social Security act. Oh the horror!

[UNI88]

JSO, when I look at that chart the horizontal lines don't look accurate. I see a downward trend from 2014 to the end of 2016 and a slight upward trend from 2017 to 2019.

[Ivytalk]

I don't need luck. I've sent you links to academic studies that determined FDR's New Deal policies turned a recession into a prolonged depression.

Yeah, the TVA was such a bad deal. The repeal of Prohibition was awful...what a terrible policy. Multiple securities and banking reforms to PREVENT what had occurred on Black Friday have been disastrous.

Oh, and let's not forget the Social Security act. Oh the horror!

Now that you raise the repeal of a Prohibition, we shouldn’t forget that the 18th Amendment that established Prohibition was a product of the Wilson Administration. Took a Donk to repeal a Donk policy.

[Ibanez]

Yeah, the TVA was such a bad deal. The repeal of Prohibition was awful...what a terrible policy. Multiple securities and banking reforms to PREVENT what had occurred on Black Friday have been disastrous.

Oh, and let's not forget the Social Security act. Oh the horror!

Now that you raise the repeal of a Prohibition, we shouldn’t forget that the 18th Amendment that established Prohibition was a product of the Wilson Administration. Took a Donk to repeal a Donk policy.

The 18th passed with bi-partisan support. I forget the numbers but it was quite bi-partisan.

The Volstead Act had bi-partisan support as well but it was not loved by the Democrats at the time. In fact the democrats opposed it. It passed because of the Republican majority in the HoR. Wilson vetoed the the Act and but there were enough votes in the House and Senate to override.

So you can say that 1 Donk tried to do the sensible thing but failed. I like to credit the 4 years that Wilson lived in SC as being the years that gave him the sense to realize that Booze was good and didn't need to be prohibited.

[JohnStOnge]

JSO, when I look at that chart the horizontal lines don't look accurate. I see a downward trend from 2014 to the end of 2016 and a slight upward trend from 2017 to 2019.

They are averages of the vertical bars.

[UNI88]

JSO, when I look at that chart the horizontal lines don't look accurate. I see a downward trend from 2014 to the end of 2016 and a slight upward trend from 2017 to 2019.

They are averages of the vertical bars.

Focusing on the averages is disingenuous but good for your argument. What about trends ...

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[mainejeff]

MAGAs don't care about job growth. And no one else should either. The markets and economy will keep humming through at least 2024 while Trump is in there. That's all that matters.