Coronavirus COVID-19

[BDKJMU]

Yep, esp if we go from Recession (already there) to a Depression. It will be the above like none of us have ever seen before. Its not lives versus the economy. Its lives versus lives.

More fear mongering. I just hope whoever makes the decision, makes one that turns out for the best. Dying of this virus, from what I've heard, is not very pleasant. You slowly suffocate because the virus destroys your lung cells, and Oxygen can't circulate to you organs.

The fear mongering is what's been going on with these models, and many govt officials, and the MSM, exaggerating the effects of not staying shutdown.

[Silenoz]

More fear mongering. I just hope whoever makes the decision, makes one that turns out for the best. Dying of this virus, from what I've heard, is not very pleasant. You slowly suffocate because the virus destroys your lung cells, and Oxygen can't circulate to you organs.

The fear mongering is what's been going on with these models, and many govt officials, and the MSM, exaggerating the effects of not staying shutdown.

It's all fearmongering, including what you are doing, don't kid yourself. The only question is, what part of the gray area in the spectrum is the sweet spot.

[kalm]

Is South Dakota one of those states?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

The world's biggest pork processor, Smithfield Foods, will shut a South Dakota plant indefinitely after employees tested positive for the coronavirus. (Reuters)
By
Griff Witte
April 13, 2020 at 5:06 p.m. PDT
As governors across the country fell into line in recent weeks, South Dakota’s top elected leader stood firm: There would be no statewide order to stay home.
Such edicts to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus, Gov. Kristi L. Noem said disparagingly, reflected a “herd mentality.” It was up to individuals — not government — to decide whether “to exercise their right to work, to worship and to play. Or to even stay at home.”

And besides, the first-term Republican told reporters at a briefing this month, “South Dakota is not New York City.”
But now South Dakota is home to one of the largest single coronavirus clusters anywhere in the United States, with more than 300 workers at a giant ­pork-processing plant falling ill. With the case numbers continuing to spike, the company was forced to announce the indefinite closure of the facility Sunday, threatening the U.S. food supply

Speaking of MMQB'ing ... If she had issued a stay home order, would the plant not be closing down? Would the plant workers have been deemed essential? If not, the plant would have been closed by order. If yes, couldn't the workers have gotten sick anyway? The "you can't know what the numbers would be without shelter-in-place" argument works the other way too.

IMO, shelter-in-place, social distancing (I hate that term, it should be physical distancing because technology still allows us to be social), etc. should be used for the general populace to give healthcare, manufacturing and the supply chain time to develop and distribute the products and capacity to handle the virus. The next logical timeframe after that is 18+ months until there is a vaccine because there will be secondary and tertiary outbreaks.

Touché. I posted it to remind how quickly it can spread and the food supply is kind of a big deal.

Here’s another smack dab between you and me.

https://www.nbcrightnow.com/news/covid- ... 5b0ca.html

[kalm]

The fear mongering is what's been going on with these models, and many govt officials, and the MSM, exaggerating the effects of not staying shutdown.

It's all fearmongering, including what you are doing, don't kid yourself. The only question is, what part of the gray area in the spectrum is the sweet spot.

Exactly...

[AZGrizFan]

Pass. Not my area of expertise. But yeah, I'll remember these "experts" the next time the shit out a model for global warming, sea level increase, global emission standards, etc. Huge integrity hit to the scientific community imo.

It’s going to be very similar to the climate debate. Many deniers Monday quartebacking on other people’s work.

Well that's pretty easy to do when the work is shit.

[Ivytalk]

First thing we do, let’s kill all the chickens. — attributed to William Shakespeare

[Gil Dobie]

First thing we do, let’s kill all the chickens. — attributed to William Shakespeare

Was Shakespeare a real person, or was it Francis Bacon's pen name so to speak.

[AZGrizFan]

Restaurants - They're already cooking and packaging food to go. Just seat every other table or remove every other table; servers wear masks and gloves, sanitize between sittings, remove condiments and provide prepackaged condiments on request.

Movie theatres - keep one/two seats empty between groups living in same household. Servers wear masks & gloves. Sell only prepackaged foods and sodas at the food counter

Car lots - sanitize vehicles after test drives. social distance during sales pitch. plastic guards at customer-facing desks; keep doors open so they don't have to be touched.

Athletics Events - go without spectators if they need to....or social distance like movie theatres with designated empty seats. Test players & coaches prior to events

Golf Courses - require everyone to have their own cart (unless already living in same house); no cart girl service

Fishing, hunting, hiking, camping, boating, etc. - get back to normal; these should be no brainers

Hospitals - Get back to elective surgeries & get doctors & nurses back to work. Test patients prior to hospital entry

Schools - Split shifts (7-12; 12:30-5:30) with half-sized classes to social distance. We did this in 3rd/4th/5th grade in Florence, MT due to class size overload. It ain't perfect but it would allow social distancing inside the classroom. Test kids prior to entry at the school. Hand sanitizer, gloves, masks, etc.

Grocery stores - keep doing what they're doing, it's working

If you work in an office environment and have your own office, you should be perfectly fine at work. Hell, even if you work in a cube farm you're still at least six-eight feet from the nearest person. Hand sanitizer, gloves, masks, minimize meeting sizes, take advantage of electronic forms of communication, etc....

Send home people who develop symptoms, have depressed immune systems or other high risk factors and let's get the fuck on with living.

This shit ain't rocket science.

[Ivytalk]

First thing we do, let’s kill all the chickens. — attributed to William Shakespeare

Was Shakespeare a real person, or was it Francis Bacon's pen name so to speak.

Who doesn’t love Bacon?

[mainejeff]

So I wonder how Republicans truly feel about this? Trump HATES the United States Constitution. I believe that Republicans are in love with it....or at least that is what they have said under Dem Presidents. They also have said that state rights should supersede the power of the Federal Government.....or at least that is what they have said under Dem Presidents. You need a scorecard these days for flip flopping MAGAts.

Which is it?......we need GannonFan to spin this so I can feel better about things.

Uh, you really don't see the flip flopping going on from both sides? GOP today is about federal power whereas previously, under a Dem president, they would emphasize states rights. Dems have done and are now doing the same thing. It's a political duopoly, both parties pretty much switch sides of most arguments depending who's in power. If you're criticizing one side for doing it and not recognizing the other side for doing the same, then in the spirit of Jeff Foxworthy, you're a partisan.

But why do I have to analyze Democrats right now when the Republican Trump is the current one saying this? And his supporters are still supporting him including many blue blood Republicans. Does this mean when a Democrat gets in power I can count on you to go the other way and over analyze the Republican minority?

GannonFan.....you are such a closet case Republican. Just admit it! What are you afraid of?

[Gil Dobie]

Was Shakespeare a real person, or was it Francis Bacon's pen name so to speak.

Who doesn’t love Bacon?

Bacon, Bacon, Where for art though Bacon

All the World loves Bacon

[mainejeff]

They are trying to balance off Faux News and their 24/7 Trump Dick Sucking Fest.

OR, Fox is trying to offset NBC, ABC, CBS, MSNBC, CNN....

indeed

But this was Faux Newes mojo long before Trump came along (sucking GOP dick).

[kalm]

Is South Dakota one of those states?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

The world's biggest pork processor, Smithfield Foods, will shut a South Dakota plant indefinitely after employees tested positive for the coronavirus. (Reuters)
By
Griff Witte
April 13, 2020 at 5:06 p.m. PDT
As governors across the country fell into line in recent weeks, South Dakota’s top elected leader stood firm: There would be no statewide order to stay home.
Such edicts to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus, Gov. Kristi L. Noem said disparagingly, reflected a “herd mentality.” It was up to individuals — not government — to decide whether “to exercise their right to work, to worship and to play. Or to even stay at home.”

And besides, the first-term Republican told reporters at a briefing this month, “South Dakota is not New York City.”
But now South Dakota is home to one of the largest single coronavirus clusters anywhere in the United States, with more than 300 workers at a giant ­pork-processing plant falling ill. With the case numbers continuing to spike, the company was forced to announce the indefinite closure of the facility Sunday, threatening the U.S. food supply

That's not a state thing, that's a company thing. What did Smithfield Foods do in terms of safety and cleaning in the plant? Did they institute social distancing in the plant? Where they couldn't did they institute regular disinfecting or additional PPE? Did they have testing of employees before they entered the plant? I know it's not as sexy reporting as a "GOP thing" or a "Dem thing", but the real story is about what did that company do and what didn't they do? Heck, under most stay at home orders in most states, that company would've been part of the "essential" businesses and would be operating anyway even under those orders, so again it comes down to what the individual company did.

And it does go back to Gil's point about not trusting people to do the right thing. But if you don't trust them now why would you trust them to do the right thing at the end of May? Are people more trustworthy in summer months? We won't have a vaccine or herd immunity or instant on demand testing for everyone, so we'll need to have operational controls that need to be followed by everyone. Like I said, law enforcement could step in to be the ones investigating complaints of people/businesses (maybe like Smithfield Foods) from not doing what they should be doing. But if we aren't going to trust people to follow guidelines then we should never let people out of their houses again, maybe even after we get a vaccine too.

I mentioned it as a state thing replying to BDK’s state thing. The virus doesn’t care or recognize political boundaries.

But I agree that enforcement and enhanced regulation helps. The problem may become how different states can be entrusted to provide safe products and prevent spread to different locations.

IOW’s I’m only buying locally sourced and certified organic pangolin from now on.

[JohnStOnge]

More fear mongering. I just hope whoever makes the decision, makes one that turns out for the best. Dying of this virus, from what I've heard, is not very pleasant. You slowly suffocate because the virus destroys your lung cells, and Oxygen can't circulate to you organs.

The fear mongering is what's been going on with these models, and many govt officials, and the MSM, exaggerating the effects of not staying shutdown.

I posted here at the time that I think that when the Trump Administration used that 100,000 to 200,000 deaths projection they were aiming high so they could come back later and say what a great job they did. The University of Washington Model did not predict that. I know that people have criticized it for its predictions on hospital beds. When I've seen that they have not been looking at the uncertainty intervals, which means the assessments haven't been fair. But haven't really looked into that question yet.

What I have been looking at is deaths projections. When the Administration made that 100,000 to 200,000 prediction the University of Washington model was predicting that as of today, April 14, there would be in the range of 22,018 through 37,646 deaths. As I type the deaths total at Worldometer for the United States is 25,975. So the Model as it was on March 31 was successful; at least i terms of reported deaths. The CDC will estimate death totals at some point and they will be higher.

How much higher it will be for any given period is hard to say because they are going to use an under-reporting factor. It suspect it'll be lower than that used for influenza. But the counts we're seeing now are of cases such that lab tests have been positives and the estimate is going to consider the fact that there have been many deaths associated with cases that were never confirmed through lab testing.

The effects are not being exaggerated. To me no sane person could think that when they look at what's going on around the world. Like Russia has shut down Moscow. and is using a digital tracking system to enforce it: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/world/mo ... index.html .

When is the last time you heard of Russia shutting down a major city due to an illness outbreak? I don't know about you, but for me the answer is "never." I'm sure it must've happened. But it's not a common thing.

When you see things like that maybe it's time to admit that this is a real threat. Russia didn't do that because the media were exaggerating the situation.

[JohnStOnge]

I am a conservative. But this is yet another example of things that have happened in recent years such that the general reaction of people identifying as conservatives makes conservatism look ignorant. There's a conspiracy to exaggerate deaths. It's not really a big deal. It's a conspiracy to get Trump. It's not as bad as the seasonal flu. On and on.

At this point I'd have to say that there's a reason why Republicans have been losing by significant margins among more educated people and why the gap has been increasing.

And yes I know that early on I thought it was not going to be as bad as the seasonal flu. But there was a point at which it was time to change that belief based on the reality indicated by the data coming in. And by "data" i include looking at data on responses of various jurisdictions. In many cases there was resistance to reacting early on but eventually leadership had to change its position. Stuff like the Russians shutting Moscow down. Like that would happen if this was much ado about nothing.

Also knowing that when CDC does its final estimate on the death toll so that we have an "apples to apples" comparison on how the death toll compares to the seasonal flu the estimate is going to indicate a higher number than the count numbers we are seeing now. Probably substantially higher.

This is not like the seasonal flu.

[kalm]

I am a conservative. But this is yet another example of things that have happened in recent years such that the general reaction of people identifying as conservatives makes conservatism look ignorant. There's a conspiracy to exaggerate deaths. It's not really a big deal. It's a conspiracy to get Trump. It's not as bad as the seasonal flu. On and on.

At this point I'd have to say that there's a reason why Republicans have been losing by significant margins among more educated people and why the gap has been increasing.

And yes I know that early on I thought it was not going to be as bad as the seasonal flu. But there was a point at which it was time to change that belief based on the reality indicated by the data coming in. And by "data" i include looking at data on responses of various jurisdictions. In many cases there was resistance to reacting early on but eventually leadership had to change its position. Stuff like the Russians shutting Moscow down. Like that would happen if this was much ado about nothing.

Also knowing that when CDC does its final estimate on the death toll so that we have an "apples to apples" comparison on how the death toll compares to the seasonal flu the estimate is going to indicate a higher number than the count numbers we are seeing now. Probably substantially higher.

This is not like the seasonal flu.

My Cajun.......

[AZGrizFan]

The fear mongering is what's been going on with these models, and many govt officials, and the MSM, exaggerating the effects of not staying shutdown.

I posted here at the time that I think that when the Trump Administration used that 100,000 to 200,000 deaths projection they were aiming high so they could come back later and say what a great job they did. The University of Washington Model did not predict that. I know that people have criticized it for its predictions on hospital beds. When I've seen that they have not been looking at the uncertainty intervals, which means the assessments haven't been fair. But haven't really looked into that question yet.

What I have been looking at is deaths projections. When the Administration made that 100,000 to 200,000 prediction the University of Washington model was predicting that as of today, April 14, there would be in the range of 22,018 through 37,646 deaths. As I type the deaths total at Worldometer for the United States is 25,975. So the Model as it was on March 31 was successful; at least i terms of reported deaths. The CDC will estimate death totals at some point and they will be higher.

How much higher it will be for any given period is hard to say because they are going to use an under-reporting factor. It suspect it'll be lower than that used for influenza. But the counts we're seeing now are of cases such that lab tests have been positives and the estimate is going to consider the fact that there have been many deaths associated with cases that were never confirmed through lab testing.

The effects are not being exaggerated. To me no sane person could think that when they look at what's going on around the world. Like Russia has shut down Moscow. and is using a digital tracking system to enforce it: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/world/mo ... index.html .

When is the last time you heard of Russia shutting down a major city due to an illness outbreak? I don't know about you, but for me the answer is "never." I'm sure it must've happened. But it's not a common thing.

When you see things like that maybe it's time to admit that this is a real threat. Russia didn't do that because the media were exaggerating the situation.

Here’s the UW model predicting 2609 deaths per day by today. This was put out on 4/1. We peaked almost 1,000 deaths per day BELOW that number.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUntq32WoAQ ... ame=medium

Once again, the absolute bottom of their predictive range ends up being a lot closer to actuality. That bears out almost without exception in their model. Pick a state, any state, and the actual curve will mirror or be below the lowest of their ranges.

[AZGrizFan]

And on 4/1 they predicted over 93,000 deaths in their model.

93,765 to be exact.

[AZGrizFan]

On 4/1 they predicted 6,161 deaths in Alabama. so far? 109.

[AZGrizFan]

On 3/31, TODAY was supposed to be the peak day....over 220,000 beds needed, almost 33,000 ICU beds needed and almost 27,000 ventilators.

NOT
EVEN
CLOSE

Today the ENTIRE US reports just over 13,000 critical cases. Hospitals across the country are empty (except in NYC). Nurses and doctors being furloughed because there is literally no one to sere.

And guess what, klammy....their model included lockdowns and social distancing implemented in all 50 states within 7 days. Which didn’t happen, obviously. And STILL they were way, way high.

Their model is literally like reading fiction.

[CAA Flagship]

If you're not going to trust people to do what they are told to do then we should stay locked down until there's a proven vaccine. Even more so if you say you want to take the conservative side and save lives from Covid. With that logic, there's never a time to open back up again until a vaccine is here. Tell me how opening up at the end of May is fundamentally different from opening up at the start of May? We won't have a vaccine, we pretty much feel there's no herd immunity with this virus so it's not like we're waiting for more people to build up antibodies (which they can't right now anyway because we're trying to prevent people from catching it at all) and we won't have instant on-demand testing for everyone so what's magical about the end of May?

Its not.

Technically, the difference is that a therapeutic treatment could be proven effective by the end of May if one of the early drugs to trial hit a home run. And we would have more time to build up a supply of blood from more recovered patients if the plasma treatment is found to have a positive effect.

[kalm]

On 3/31, TODAY was supposed to be the peak day....over 220,000 beds needed, almost 33,000 ICU beds needed and almost 27,000 ventilators.

NOT
EVEN
CLOSE

Today the ENTIRE US reports just over 13,000 critical cases. Hospitals across the country are empty (except in NYC). Nurses and doctors being furloughed because there is literally no one to sere.

And guess what, klammy....their model included lockdowns and social distancing implemented in all 50 states within 7 days. Which didn’t happen, obviously. And STILL they were way, way high.

Their model is literally like reading fiction.

Link?

[AZGrizFan]

On 3/31, TODAY was supposed to be the peak day....over 220,000 beds needed, almost 33,000 ICU beds needed and almost 27,000 ventilators.

NOT
EVEN
CLOSE

Today the ENTIRE US reports just over 13,000 critical cases. Hospitals across the country are empty (except in NYC). Nurses and doctors being furloughed because there is literally no one to sere.

And guess what, klammy....their model included lockdowns and social distancing implemented in all 50 states within 7 days. Which didn’t happen, obviously. And STILL they were way, way high.

Their model is literally like reading fiction.

Link?

Go to their twitter feed and look at their tweets. That’s what I did.

[kalm]

Link?

Go to their twitter feed and look at their tweets. That’s what I did.

Show your work.

[HI54UNI]

Smithfield would not have been shut down with a SIP order because food production would be essential. And having the virus hit it now might not be all bad. Better to have one plant shut down now rather than later and hit a bunch all at once. Less potential disruption to the food supply.

I also wonder how much of this is due to the fact that immigrants do most packing plant work. They may be illegals so less likely to go to the doctor and often have multiple families living in one house in close quarters which would increase the spread.

And screw Smithfield because they are owned by the Chinese.