Coronavirus COVID-19

[Pwns]

"Water is essential for life. I'll drink a gallon in ten minutes to be extra safe from dehydration."

[kalm]

Was on FB this morning a couple of liberal friends thought this meme was so dead on. Unfortunately it wasn't much better than a Z analogy. Folks like these don't really care about accuracy, they just think it's sounds good. Both sides do it, I'm just as happy to call out a conservative friend who posts something similar. However, it's about 10-1 on my friends posting liberal shit on FB.

Well I hate to break it to ya but unless you have inside scientific information, that meme still has more than a decent chance of being right.

The Spanish flu killed an estimated 3-5 million first wave and then 20-50 million in the fall.

The experts are still learning what this is.

[SDHornet]

Their daily death counts are all over the place with a peak (so far) of 170 on 4/15. Hard to say if it's trending upward. New daily case counts follow a similar pattern. Must be something with their testing strategy.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/

So an update from the data analytics guy...he agrees with you. Numbers are numbers and they are going to change and deservedly be critiqued. The surveillance state implications are the troublesome part...

“the GIGANTIC ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM ASSUMPTION that we have surveillance level test, track, trace and Quarantine, were months away at best at having that capacity. i love the IMHE models, but they wildly, and I mean wildly over predict in both directions as such they are fairly useless in point estimation, the numbers that matter are testing capacity, public health personnel for test, trace and quarantine and two different R scores, plus infection rate velocity, and active case density, the IMHE model does not factor those decision variables well”

Yup. Now you understand why I was laughing at Newsom's metric of testing as a condition of relieving the lockdown. CA has run just under a quarter million tests since this thing broke out, but somehow CA is going to regularly test 40M people and trace it and issue quarantine noticies? Sure.

[SDHornet]

Their daily death counts are all over the place with a peak (so far) of 170 on 4/15. Hard to say if it's trending upward. New daily case counts follow a similar pattern. Must be something with their testing strategy.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/

Berenson specifically mentions deaths per capita but Jelly's chart is total deaths. Berenson also admits that deaths per-capita in Sweden have been higher than other Nordic countries but far lower than the U.K., Italy, France, or Spain. Include them in the graph and while we're still missing the per capita comparison, Sweden doesn't look nearly as bad.



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SO you're saying is Sweden isn't like the other dense southern/western european countries. Who knew?

[SDHornet]

"Water is essential for life. I'll drink a gallon in ten minutes to be extra safe from dehydration."

[kalm]

Berenson specifically mentions deaths per capita but Jelly's chart is total deaths. Berenson also admits that deaths per-capita in Sweden have been higher than other Nordic countries but far lower than the U.K., Italy, France, or Spain. Include them in the graph and while we're still missing the per capita comparison, Sweden doesn't look nearly as bad.



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SO you're saying is Sweden isn't like the other dense southern/western european countries. Who knew?

Something between Cascadia and Sweden will be what’s settled on. Swedish nursing homes are getting beaten up.

“Let’s eat grandma”

[JohnStOnge]

Berenson specifically mentions deaths per capita but Jelly's chart is total deaths. Berenson also admits that deaths per-capita in Sweden have been higher than other Nordic countries but far lower than the U.K., Italy, France, or Spain. Include them in the graph and while we're still missing the per capita comparison, Sweden doesn't look nearly as bad.



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I think the Sweden situation is interesting. Bear in mind, though, that they are not just doing business as usual. They are just relying more on voluntary action.

Also, as noted, they are doing poorly in a relative sense as compared to their Nordic neighbors who imposed stricter controls.

[Chizzang]

"Water is essential for life. I'll drink a gallon in ten minutes to be extra safe from dehydration."

Are the board fundamentalists going to show everybody the importance of logic right now..?
That is interesting

[CID1990]

I wish that somehow it'd be possible to get people to understand uncertainty in statistics and modeling.

It IS possible

You have demonstrated it brilliantly right here on CS


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[JohnStOnge]

I Googled around on the Sweden situation and found this article: https://www.project-syndicate.org/comme ... om-2020-04. The author is a Swede.

I checked mediabiasfactcheck.org and it says Project Syndicate has a Left Center bias and a "High" factual reporting rating.

He wrote that Sweden has one of the World's highest COVID-19 death rates. At first I wondered about that. But I did a sort of the table at the Worldometers site and Sweden, as I type, has the 10th highest deaths per 100 million population among actual countries. It's 11th among jurisdictions but one jurisdiction rated ahead of it is Andora. Andora is a city in Italy as far as I can tell. Another jurisdiction rated ahead of it...in fact at #1...is San Marino. That's a micro state in Italy. Finally Sint Marteen is rated ahead of it. According to Wikipedia, it is a "constituent country of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in the Caribbean."

So, really, when you look at what we normally think of as "countries" Sweden is ranked 8th in the world in deaths per million population. It goes like this:

Belgium 490
Spain 437
Italy 391
France 302
UK 237
Netherlands 215
Switzerland 161
Sweden 152

So, yes, I think it's reasonable for that Swede to say that his country has one World's highest COVID-19 death rates.

[89Hen]

Well I hate to break it to ya but unless you have inside scientific information, that meme still has more than a decent chance of being right.

The Spanish flu killed an estimated 3-5 million first wave and then 20-50 million in the fall.

The experts are still learning what this is.

I guess I can chalk you up as one of the liberal morons who love the color and font of a meme and it sounds good, so must be good.

Is there a reason to take off a parachute kalm?

Is there a reason to open things back up?

My God you've changed the last four weeks.

[∞∞∞]

COVID-19 has now killed more people in the US than the 2018-'19 flu season, and this with shutting things down and social distancing.

Imagine if we didn't. But yeah, it's just like the flu.

[93henfan]

COVID-19 has now killed more people in the US than the 2018-'19 flu season, and this with shutting things down and social distancing.

Imagine if we didn't. But yeah, it's just like the flu.

Still only half of the 2017-2018 flu season, but it'll probably get there soon enough.

[Baldy]

Any wonder why so many call them the enemy of the people?

[∞∞∞]

COVID-19 has now killed more people in the US than the 2018-'19 flu season, and this with shutting things down and social distancing.

Imagine if we didn't. But yeah, it's just like the flu.

Still only half of the 2017-2018 flu season, but it'll probably get there soon enough.

Yes, unfortunately.

We also have to remember influenza has a vaccine while this doesn't.

[mainejeff]

Does Trump really need to keep doing these daily Re-Election Press Rallies?

[kalm]

Well I hate to break it to ya but unless you have inside scientific information, that meme still has more than a decent chance of being right.

The Spanish flu killed an estimated 3-5 million first wave and then 20-50 million in the fall.

The experts are still learning what this is.

I guess I can chalk you up as one of the liberal morons who love the color and font of a meme and it sounds good, so must be good.

Is there a reason to take off a parachute kalm?

Is there a reason to open things back up?

My God you've changed the last four weeks.

You can regard me as you’d like.

Notice you provided no evidence. Trust me, I’m the biggest fan of this being overblown hysteria and that the best science has been completely wrong. I want to cast blue duns to rising rainbow trout and hit a quail high knockdown micro fade wedge to a back right pin placement on #16...right fucking now!

Meanwhile, my conservative friends have been mostly the ones losing there shit while the “liberal morons” have been more inclined to a thoughtful, measured response.

Funny, ain’t that?

[SDHornet]

Well, in Joe's defense, does he really remember what he said that long ago?

[AZGrizFan]

I wish that somehow it'd be possible to get people to understand uncertainty in statistics and modeling.

It IS possible

You have demonstrated it brilliantly right here on CS


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Man. Talk about leading with your chin.

[SDHornet]

Interesting interview on the Chinese Flu timeline. Closes with a nice "Republican voter suppression in Texas" question from Maher.

[Gil Dobie]

I Googled around on the Sweden situation and found this article: https://www.project-syndicate.org/comme ... om-2020-04. The author is a Swede.

I checked mediabiasfactcheck.org and it says Project Syndicate has a Left Center bias and a "High" factual reporting rating.

He wrote that Sweden has one of the World's highest COVID-19 death rates. At first I wondered about that. But I did a sort of the table at the Worldometers site and Sweden, as I type, has the 10th highest deaths per 100 million population among actual countries. It's 11th among jurisdictions but one jurisdiction rated ahead of it is Andora. Andora is a city in Italy as far as I can tell. Another jurisdiction rated ahead of it...in fact at #1...is San Marino. That's a micro state in Italy. Finally Sint Marteen is rated ahead of it. According to Wikipedia, it is a "constituent country of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in the Caribbean."

So, really, when you look at what we normally think of as "countries" Sweden is ranked 8th in the world in deaths per million population. It goes like this:

Belgium 490
Spain 437
Italy 391
France 302
UK 237
Netherlands 215
Switzerland 161
Sweden 152

So, yes, I think it's reasonable for that Swede to say that his country has one World's highest COVID-19 death rates.

Andorra is between France and Spain.

[UNI88]

I think the Sweden situation is interesting. Bear in mind, though, that they are not just doing business as usual. They are just relying more on voluntary action.

Also, as noted, they are doing poorly in a relative sense as compared to their Nordic neighbors who imposed stricter controls.

I don't disagree John. Jelly threw out a graph in response to the one that SD posted that was an apples to oranges comparison and ignored the comments in the Berenson's tweet (Deaths per-capita have been far lower than the U.K., Italy, France, or Spain, just higher than other Nordic countries). Sweden looks worse compared to the other Nordic countries. They're also up and down day-to-day.

Andorra is a country in Europe. It's a small principality between France and Spain.

[kalm]

I think the Sweden situation is interesting. Bear in mind, though, that they are not just doing business as usual. They are just relying more on voluntary action.

Also, as noted, they are doing poorly in a relative sense as compared to their Nordic neighbors who imposed stricter controls.

I don't disagree John. Jelly threw out a graph in response to the one that SD posted that was an apples to oranges comparison and ignored the comments in the Berenson's tweet (Deaths per-capita have been far lower than the U.K., Italy, France, or Spain, just higher than other Nordic countries). Sweden looks worse compared to the other Nordic countries. They're also up and down day-to-day.

Andorra is a country in Europe. It's a small principality between France and Spain.

All true. The new jam should be infection rate and deaths per area (km or miles).

As I think most of us know, these are both neutral, non-political data sets.

The key questions still remain death rates along with chances of reinfection and additional waves.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

COVID-19 has now killed more people in the US than the 2018-'19 flu season, and this with shutting things down and social distancing.

Imagine if we didn't. But yeah, it's just like the flu.

100% bullshit

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[mainejeff]

We've tested 4 million Americans in 45 days.......wahoo! Only 6 more years to go!