Coronavirus COVID-19

[UNI88]

Not buying the rapid CLIA certification unless we want to turn our labs into Walmart of testing.

Good idea, but they need to complete the process. Chances are, if they qualified already, they would have already gotten the cert.

CAP is another cert that requires higher standards than CLIA.

By the way, I used to work for LabCorp, certified in both, so I know a little about lab quality.

I’ll yield to your experience here but we are in extraordinary times and green lighting through some traditional regs is being used right now to fast track vaccine development.

His greater point is that we are approaching the binary decision level when it comes to behavior. Celebrate the 4th with a bunch of friends, family trip, sit down at the bar, etc. vs kiddos going back to some semblance of a normal school environment in the fall.

Regardless of politics and feels.

I'm not sure sending kids back to school in the fall is the right call regardless (or should I say irregardless ) of whether proper procedures are followed for the rest of the summer. But if you want to rile up a bunch of parents and build a network of effective scolds to get people to follow procedures that is probably a pretty good threat.

[SeattleGriz]

Not buying the rapid CLIA certification unless we want to turn our labs into Walmart of testing.

Good idea, but they need to complete the process. Chances are, if they qualified already, they would have already gotten the cert.

CAP is another cert that requires higher standards than CLIA.

By the way, I used to work for LabCorp, certified in both, so I know a little about lab quality.

I’ll yield to your experience here but we are in extraordinary times and green lighting through some traditional regs is being used right now to fast track vaccine development.

His greater point is that we are approaching the binary decision level when it comes to behavior. Celebrate the 4th with a bunch of friends, family trip, sit down at the bar, etc. vs kiddos going back to some semblance of a normal school environment in the fall.

Regardless of politics and feels.

Sorry. Didn't mean to come across as a know it all. It can be done, but with preconditions.

It is a good idea.

Just need to ensure we maintain standards, which can be done.

Merica at its finest.

[JohnStOnge]

I don't think the demographics matter. Also, I think that testing frequency is likely to rise as infection rate rises. I think it likely that, if more people start expressing symptoms themselves or are exposed to other people expressing symptoms, there is likely to be more testing. In other words: Yes, more testing can reveal more cases. But I think it is also true that more cases leads to more testing.

If I had to bet, I would bet that we are indeed having more cases right now than we were during the first case reports peak.

I suspect that a factor in us not seeing as many deaths is that health care professionals have learned some things about managing the disease. Also the thing about a greater proportion of the diagnosed cases being younger people. But we will see what happens in the future. I'd say we should start to have a better idea about two weeks from now.

Demographics could matter if tests in April focused on the most at-risk people who were more likely to use precautions and now more younger people who are less likely to use precautions are being tested. At least some of the increase in infection rates can be accounted for by the increased testing. People are testing positive that would not have qualified for testing earlier.

I'm not saying we should ignore the number of cases but we should be trying to normalize the results so that comparisons over time are valid.

Another thing to remember is that, at least as far as the CDC case counts go, testing is not required to categorize something as a case. There is a discussion of that at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html:

As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths. This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19 position statement issued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5, 2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally notifiable disease. Nationally notifiable disease cases are voluntarily reported to CDC by jurisdictions.

A confirmed case or death is defined by meeting confirmatory laboratory evidence for COVID-19.

A probable case or death is defined by one of the following:

Meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19

Meeting presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence

Meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19

It would be interesting to learn how many cases being counted now which are associated with positive lab tests would've been counted as cases without lab testing because they met the case definition. It's not a situation in which we can say that a given illness would not have been counted as a case two months ago because lab testing wasn't available. If somebody presented with symptoms and epidemiology criteria meeting the case definition back then they were counted as a case whether there was a lab test or not.

[kalm]

I’ll yield to your experience here but we are in extraordinary times and green lighting through some traditional regs is being used right now to fast track vaccine development.

His greater point is that we are approaching the binary decision level when it comes to behavior. Celebrate the 4th with a bunch of friends, family trip, sit down at the bar, etc. vs kiddos going back to some semblance of a normal school environment in the fall.

Regardless of politics and feels.

I'm not sure sending kids back to school in the fall is the right call regardless (or should I say irregardless ) of whether proper procedures are followed for the rest of the summer. But if you want to rile up a bunch of parents and build a network of effective scolds to get people to follow procedures that is probably a pretty good threat.

I ain’t in the scold business and they’re incapable of connecting the dots necessary anyways.

Just a cautionary heads up by Slavitt which resonates.

[kalm]

And a Mexico State is closing its borders to the US...



https://www.star-telegram.com/news/nati ... 85782.html

[CID1990]

And a Mexico State is closing its borders to the US...



https://www.star-telegram.com/news/nati ... 85782.html

That is what a lot of countries with successful COVID-19 responses did.

Most of the Thai provincial governors closed down their borders. It only takes a couple weeks


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BDKJMU]

Link?

Dude. There’s approaching dozens of studies out there now. Every single one comes up with a number 10-50x the ACTUAL # of reported cases if you extrapolate their results over the population. The latest was the Penn State study. https://news.psu.edu/story/623797/2020/ ... originally

Here’s another just out Thur (although ‘only’ 12-14% of the population/about 15x as high as the current less than 1%...

Wake Forest COVID Study: Death Rate, Severity Of Symptoms Is Lower Than First Thought

A study by Wake Forest Baptist Health has found that between 12-14% of people tested in North Carolina have antibodies for the coronavirus -- meaning they have been exposed to the virus -- with most of them showing little or no symptoms.

The majority of the study participants are in the Triad area.

The findings suggest that COVID-19 is less deadly than originally thought and that the death rate for the disease could be in the range of 0.1%....

https://www.wfae.org/post/wake-forest-c ... t#stream/0

[JohnStOnge]

The data and images I am posting here are as of yesterday afternoon from Worldometers. First a list of EU countries with higher per capita test rates than the US followed by images of daily case reports. Note the difference. United States never got a big downward trend and now things are really surging upwards. EU countries with downward trends. Some of them have some upswing at the end but not like the United States.

The United States is not looking bad as compared to the EU because of differences in testing rate.

First list of countries with tests per million population rates:

United States 108,375 tests per million population
Belgium 109,636
Spain 116,544
Portugal 118,237
Cyprus 132,733
Lithuania 160,442
Denmark 191,007
Malta 222,260
Luxembourg 331,975

Now images:

[BDKJMU]

The data and images I am posting here are as of yesterday afternoon from Worldometers. First a list of EU countries with higher per capita test rates than the US followed by images of daily case reports. Note the difference. United States never got a big downward trend and now things are really surging upwards. EU countries with downward trends. Some of them have some upswing at the end but not like the United States.

The United States is not looking bad as compared to the EU because of differences in testing rate.

First list of countries with tests per million population rates:

United States 108,375 tests per million population
Belgium 109,636
Spain 116,544
Portugal 118,237
Cyprus 132,733
Lithuania 160,442
Denmark 191,007
Malta 222,260
Luxembourg 331,975

Now images:

-World O Meters shows the US with more tests per million than Beligium.
-You cherry picked only the EU countries with higher test per million that the US..
-Of the 6 EU countries with more test per million than the US, they include 4 TINY population countries, including the 3 TINIEST. Luxembourg and Malta, tiny population countries of around a 1/2 million, in a test per million comparison that don’t even have 1 million people. Cyprus, just over 1 million, and Lithuania under 3 million. You basically picked the smallest population EU countries with a couple exceptions.
-You left the other 20 EU countries that the US has a higher test per million rate.

Tests per million US compared to the 4 EU countries over 50 million population:
US 109,745
Italy: 92,222
Germany 70,102
Poland: 42,809
France: 21,212

If you expand that to all but the tiniest EU population countries, any over 5 million:
Denmark 191,005
Portugal: 118,208
Spain: 116,543
US 109,745
Belgium: 109,635
Italy: 92,222
Switzerland 72,142
Austria 71,335
Germany 70,102
Norway 64,227
Czechia 52,770
Sweden 51,399
Finland: 45,409
Poland: 42,809
Greece: 31,226
Bulgaria: 21,599
France: 21,212

[JohnStOnge]

And a Mexico State is closing its borders to the US...



https://www.star-telegram.com/news/nati ... 85782.html

That is what a lot of countries with successful COVID-19 responses did.

Most of the Thai provincial governors closed down their borders. It only takes a couple weeks


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It'll be interesting to see what people say after all this is over and people have a chance to look in retrospect at the effectiveness of various strategies. As of the last time I tried to read about the issue it looked to me like the consensus view was that travel restrictions limited effect. Early on I looked at some information on travel restrictions and case rates. There did not appear to be an association such that countries being more aggressive with respect to imposing travel restrictions were characterized by lower case rates.

But, obviously, if you don't have any infections in your jurisdiction and you shut yourself completely off so that no infections can come in that should work.

One thing's for sure: Travel restrictions are pretty popular right now! I'm sure there will be a lot of study of the data on that.

[JohnStOnge]

-World O Meters shows the US with more tests per million than Beligium.
-You cherry picked only the EU countries with higher test per million that the US..
-Of the 6 EU countries with more test per million than the US, they include 4 TINY population countries, including the 3 TINIEST. Luxembourg and Malta, tiny population countries of around a 1/2 million, in a test per million comparison that don’t even have 1 million people. Cyprus, just over 1 million, and Lithuania under 3 million. You basically picked the smallest population EU countries with a couple exceptions.
-You left the other 20 EU countries that the US has a higher test per million rate.

My numbers were as of yesterday afternoon. Belgium and the United States were close and they are still close. Apparently the United States had a little more per million population when you typed that response. As I type now Belgium has a little more again at 110,837 vs. 110,157.

I wasn't cherry picking. The point of the exercise was to note that you see the same basic pattern as you do when you look at the EU overall as you see when you only look at EU countries that have had more tests per million population than the United States does. The objective criterion is: EU country with more cases per million population than the United States.

If the question is whether the United States has more tests per million population than the EU overall does the answer is yes it does. But what I was getting at is that, even if you look only at the EU countries that have greater testing rates than the United States does, you see the same basic thing. They have done a better job at suppressing the case counts.

There is also the UK, which is no longer in the EU. As I type Worldometers has the UK at 152,315 tests per million population. That's a rate 38% higher than that of the United States as I type. Here is the UK cases per day graph:



For reference, here is the United States' graph now:



The "but we have more testing" excuse just doesn't work. The United States is not doing well at controlling things.

[CID1990]

That is what a lot of countries with successful COVID-19 responses did.

Most of the Thai provincial governors closed down their borders. It only takes a couple weeks


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It'll be interesting to see what people say after all this is over and people have a chance to look in retrospect at the effectiveness of various strategies. As of the last time I tried to read about the issue it looked to me like the consensus view was that travel restrictions limited effect. Early on I looked at some information on travel restrictions and case rates. There did not appear to be an association such that countries being more aggressive with respect to imposing travel restrictions were characterized by lower case rates.

But, obviously, if you don't have any infections in your jurisdiction and you shut yourself completely off so that no infections can come in that should work.

One thing's for sure: Travel restrictions are pretty popular right now! I'm sure there will be a lot of study of the data on that.

The problem is that most states aren’t resourced to enforce entry bans, and state line shutdowns would probably be halted via injunction by the courts.. just shop a friendly Federal district judge.

Vietnam and Thailand on the other hand have no such issues and they will certainly be held forth as exemplars even though their disregard for civil liberties will be overlooked

But that said - the lion’s share of successes in SE Asia can be linked solely to the general population being on board with prescribed personal practices like mask wearing

Hell, it really wasn’t that hard... about 50% of Asians were wearing masks before the outbreak anyway. They have been to this rodeo before


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[kalm]

Turns out, John Locke and some of the founders recognized that freedom wasn’t free...

However, Locke adds, freedom is not “a liberty for every man to do what he likes,” since “who could be free, when every other man’s humor might domineer over him?” True freedom — the freedom to be partners in our own self-governance — entails not only a freedom from external arbitrary power, but also a freedom from internal prejudices and other impediments to reason.

Looking at scenes of protest around the country, and especially in my home state of Michigan, I am reminded of what Locke observed about a certain “mistaken” idea of liberty: If “true liberty” means to “break loose from the conduct of reason, and to want that restraint of examination and judgment, which keeps us from choosing or doing the worse,” in that case, “madmen and fools are the only free men.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/c ... cna1232878

[SeattleGriz]

Obviously don't know shit, and more of a hunch, but I'm going to say COVID was man-made. Did not come from nature.

[Skjellyfetti]

It's just the seasonal flu, though. Why do you think it was man made?

[AshevilleApp]

Obviously don't know shit, and more of a hunch, but I'm going to say COVID was man-made. Did not come from nature.

I'm guessing that it's nature pushing back.

[kalm]

Obviously don't know shit, and more of a hunch, but I'm going to say COVID was man-made. Did not come from nature.

I'm guessing that it's nature pushing back.

I’ve had that same thought.

[CID1990]

Obviously don't know shit, and more of a hunch, but I'm going to say COVID was man-made. Did not come from nature.

Coronaviruses are among the most common viruses on earth. The common cold is caused by a coronavirus.

Coronaviruses are next to impossible to manipulate, which is also why there is no vaccine for them.

If someone was going to “create” or weaponize a virus, it would not be a coronavirus. It would be either an influenza virus or similar.

This virus was not created in a lab, but I would say that it was likely accidentally released from the lab in Wuhan, where they study bat host coronaviruses. I’m about 80% certain of it


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SeattleGriz]

It's just the seasonal flu, though. Why do you think it was man made?

For one, it doesn't seem to do much in those under the age of 15 and now reading that it causes more problems for those with type A blood. Nothing too wired, just stuff that appears out of the norm.

Now with that being said, I haven't done any research. I just think it's a gain of function experiment that got loose.

[AZGrizFan]

And a Mexico State is closing its borders to the US...



https://www.star-telegram.com/news/nati ... 85782.html

That is what a lot of countries with successful COVID-19 responses did.

Most of the Thai provincial governors closed down their borders. It only takes a couple weeks


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Mexico ain’t one of those countries.

[AZGrizFan]

-World O Meters shows the US with more tests per million than Beligium.
-You cherry picked only the EU countries with higher test per million that the US..
-Of the 6 EU countries with more test per million than the US, they include 4 TINY population countries, including the 3 TINIEST. Luxembourg and Malta, tiny population countries of around a 1/2 million, in a test per million comparison that don’t even have 1 million people. Cyprus, just over 1 million, and Lithuania under 3 million. You basically picked the smallest population EU countries with a couple exceptions.
-You left the other 20 EU countries that the US has a higher test per million rate.

My numbers were as of yesterday afternoon. Belgium and the United States were close and they are still close. Apparently the United States had a little more per million population when you typed that response. As I type now Belgium has a little more again at 110,837 vs. 110,157.

I wasn't cherry picking. The point of the exercise was to note that you see the same basic pattern as you do when you look at the EU overall as you see when you only look at EU countries that have had more tests per million population than the United States does. The objective criterion is: EU country with more cases per million population than the United States.

If the question is whether the United States has more tests per million population than the EU overall does the answer is yes it does. But what I was getting at is that, even if you look only at the EU countries that have greater testing rates than the United States does, you see the same basic thing. They have done a better job at suppressing the case counts.

There is also the UK, which is no longer in the EU. As I type Worldometers has the UK at 152,315 tests per million population. That's a rate 38% higher than that of the United States as I type. Here is the UK cases per day graph:



For reference, here is the United States' graph now:



The "but we have more testing" excuse just doesn't work. The United States is not doing well at controlling things.

I’ll take my chances in the US. Great Britain can keep their rules.

[AZGrizFan]

The data and images I am posting here are as of yesterday afternoon from Worldometers. First a list of EU countries with higher per capita test rates than the US followed by images of daily case reports. Note the difference. United States never got a big downward trend and now things are really surging upwards. EU countries with downward trends. Some of them have some upswing at the end but not like the United States.

The United States is not looking bad as compared to the EU because of differences in testing rate.

First list of countries with tests per million population rates:

United States 108,375 tests per million population
Belgium 109,636
Spain 116,544
Portugal 118,237
Cyprus 132,733
Lithuania 160,442
Denmark 191,007
Malta 222,260
Luxembourg 331,975

Now images:

Now post the daily new deaths in the US. Honestly, cases don’t mean shit at this point.

[∞∞∞]

I think I'm in love with the nurse.

Idiot: "You're gonna refuse me service at a hospital for not wearing a mask?"
Nurse: *shrugs* "Yeah pretty much."

[BDKJMU]

I think I'm in love with the nurse.

Idiot: "You're gonna refuse me service at a hospital for not wearing a mask?"
Nurse: *shrugs* "Yeah pretty much."

Canada- who cares.

[SDHornet]

I don't think the demographics matter. Also, I think that testing frequency is likely to rise as infection rate rises. I think it likely that, if more people start expressing symptoms themselves or are exposed to other people expressing symptoms, there is likely to be more testing. In other words: Yes, more testing can reveal more cases. But I think it is also true that more cases leads to more testing.

If I had to bet, I would bet that we are indeed having more cases right now than we were during the first case reports peak.

I suspect that a factor in us not seeing as many deaths is that health care professionals have learned some things about managing the disease. Also the thing about a greater proportion of the diagnosed cases being younger people. But we will see what happens in the future. I'd say we should start to have a better idea about two weeks from now.

Demographics could matter if tests in April focused on the most at-risk people who were more likely to use precautions and now more younger people who are less likely to use precautions are being tested. At least some of the increase in infection rates can be accounted for by the increased testing. People are testing positive that would not have qualified for testing earlier.

I'm not saying we should ignore the number of cases but we should be trying to normalize the results so that comparisons over time are valid.

The average age of those testing positive is in the high 30's now. That's good news as people in their 30's are very unlikely to die from the Chinese Flu.