2020 General Election

[SDHornet]

Can we please just stop with the thing about there being a significant effect of people who plan to vote for Trump lying to pollser?

Look, the 2016 Real Clear Politics average for the overall vote was Clinton 45.2% and and Trump 42.2% The actual result was Clinton 48.2% and Trump 46.1%. Both actuals were somewhat higher than actuals. Clinton's actual was was 3.0 percentage points higher and Trump's actual was 3.9 percentage points higher.

This thing about there being a significant effect whereby people who plan to vote for Trump are lying to pollsters is absolute nonsense.

But she lost though...

[CID1990]

Because it is more civil than eating their livers with fava beans and a nice Chianti.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Tell me, are you having a friend over for dinner?

Spoiler: show

Isn't it just as easy to say, " I'm voting for Trump" and then walk away?

Yeah, but there’s no fun in that.

But I havent been polled this year. If I was, I’d likely say I was voting Biden


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Ivytalk]

Tell me, are you having a friend over for dinner?

Spoiler: show

Isn't it just as easy to say, " I'm voting for Trump" and then walk away?

Yeah, but there’s no fun in that.

But I havent been polled this year. If I was, I’d likely say I was voting Biden


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

#MeToo

[Ibanez]

Tell me, are you having a friend over for dinner?

Spoiler: show

Isn't it just as easy to say, " I'm voting for Trump" and then walk away?

Yeah, but there’s no fun in that.

But I havent been polled this year. If I was, I’d likely say I was voting Biden


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well you have to have fun in life.


I had a wrong number call yesterday. I answered and without introducing themselves the caller asks, “Whst time you close?” I replied he had the wrong number. Before I could hang up he asked again saying he needs to stop by. I told him we’re closed for the weekend.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Col Hogan]

The Trap The Democrats Walked Right Into

In the current chaos, I’ve come to appreciate Marcus Aurelius’s maxim that “The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” And I have to say I’m horribly conflicted on some issues. I’m supportive of attempts to interrogate the sins of the past, in particular the gruesome legacy of slavery and segregation, and their persistent impact on the present. And in that sense, I’m a supporter of the motives of the good folks involved with the Black Lives Matter movement. But I’m equally repelled by the insistent attempt by BLM and its ideological founders to malign and dismiss the huge progress we’ve made, to re-describe the American experiment in freedom as one utterly defined by racism, and to call the most tolerant country on the planet, with unprecedented demographic diversity, a form of “white supremacy”. I’m tired of hearing Kamala Harris say, as she did yesterday: “The reality is that the life of a black person in America has never been treated as fully human.” This is what Trump has long defended as “truthful hyperbole” — which is a euphemism for a lie.

But here’s one thing I have absolutely no conflict about. Rioting and lawlessness is evil. And any civil authority that permits, condones or dismisses violence, looting and mayhem in the streets disqualifies itself from any legitimacy. This comes first. If one party supports everything I believe in but doesn’t believe in maintaining law and order all the time and everywhere, I’ll back a party that does. In that sense, I’m a one-issue voter, because without order, there is no room for any other issue. Disorder always and everywhere begets more disorder; the minute the authorities appear to permit such violence, it is destined to grow. And if liberals do not defend order, fascists will

.

https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/t ... lked-right

[AZGrizFan]

The Trap The Democrats Walked Right Into

In the current chaos, I’ve come to appreciate Marcus Aurelius’s maxim that “The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” And I have to say I’m horribly conflicted on some issues. I’m supportive of attempts to interrogate the sins of the past, in particular the gruesome legacy of slavery and segregation, and their persistent impact on the present. And in that sense, I’m a supporter of the motives of the good folks involved with the Black Lives Matter movement. But I’m equally repelled by the insistent attempt by BLM and its ideological founders to malign and dismiss the huge progress we’ve made, to re-describe the American experiment in freedom as one utterly defined by racism, and to call the most tolerant country on the planet, with unprecedented demographic diversity, a form of “white supremacy”. I’m tired of hearing Kamala Harris say, as she did yesterday: “The reality is that the life of a black person in America has never been treated as fully human.” This is what Trump has long defended as “truthful hyperbole” — which is a euphemism for a lie.

But here’s one thing I have absolutely no conflict about. Rioting and lawlessness is evil. And any civil authority that permits, condones or dismisses violence, looting and mayhem in the streets disqualifies itself from any legitimacy. This comes first. If one party supports everything I believe in but doesn’t believe in maintaining law and order all the time and everywhere, I’ll back a party that does. In that sense, I’m a one-issue voter, because without order, there is no room for any other issue. Disorder always and everywhere begets more disorder; the minute the authorities appear to permit such violence, it is destined to grow. And if liberals do not defend order, fascists will

.

https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/t ... lked-right

Perfectly written. You’ll never get a leftie to agree that it’s true, however.

[Ivytalk]

The Trap The Democrats Walked Right Into

.

https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/t ... lked-right

Perfectly written. You’ll never get a leftie to agree that it’s true, however.

[Winterborn]

The Trap The Democrats Walked Right Into

.

https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/t ... lked-right

Perfectly written. You’ll never get a leftie to agree that it’s true, however.

The author is moving towards being a libertarian but still has a bit to go. But I think he will wake up and get there, it is just going to take a bit more time.

Yes, we still have an election. But barring a landslide victory for either party, it will be the beginning and not the end of the raw struggle for power in a fast-collapsing republic. In a close race, Trump will never concede, and if he is somehow forced to, he will mount a campaign from the outside to delegitimize the incoming president, backed by street-gangs and propaganda outfits. If Biden wins, we may have one last chance for the center to hold — and what few hopes I have rest on this.

But Biden, let’s face it, is weak and a party man to his core, and has surrendered to the far left at almost every single turn — from abortion to immigration to race. You’d be a fool I think, to believe he could resist their fanaticism in office, or that if he does, he won’t be toast in a struggle to succeed him. He remains the only choice in this election. But on the central question of civil order, he blew it last week and so did the Dems. Biden needs a gesture of real Sister Souljah clarity to put daylight between him and the violent left. He has indeed condemned the riots, with caveats. But at some point, the caveats have to go. And the sooner the better.

[AZGrizFan]

Perfectly written. You’ll never get a leftie to agree that it’s true, however.

The author is moving towards being a libertarian but still has a bit to go. But I think he will wake up and get there, it is just going to take a bit more time.

Yes, we still have an election. But barring a landslide victory for either party, it will be the beginning and not the end of the raw struggle for power in a fast-collapsing republic. In a close race, Trump will never concede, and if he is somehow forced to, he will mount a campaign from the outside to delegitimize the incoming president, backed by street-gangs and propaganda outfits. If Biden wins, we may have one last chance for the center to hold — and what few hopes I have rest on this.

But Biden, let’s face it, is weak and a party man to his core, and has surrendered to the far left at almost every single turn — from abortion to immigration to race. You’d be a fool I think, to believe he could resist their fanaticism in office, or that if he does, he won’t be toast in a struggle to succeed him. He remains the only choice in this election. But on the central question of civil order, he blew it last week and so did the Dems. Biden needs a gesture of real Sister Souljah clarity to put daylight between him and the violent left. He has indeed condemned the riots, with caveats. But at some point, the caveats have to go. And the sooner the better.

I think the author really hits the nail on the head with these two paragraphs. The thing that’s inherently lost on the left is that these continual riots, protests, destruction, blocking roads, harassing innocent people eating in restaurants, doing the things described in the first paragraph....they don’t create compassion for their cause. In fact, they create exactly the opposite. Much like our “war on terror”, where we continue to create more and more terrorists by teh very act of attempting to eliminate terrorists, I think that same concept could be applied to the results of the tactics used by the left. They’re creating MORE hate. MORE division. And sadly, yes...MORE racists.

Here is a quote from Yoom Nguyen, owner of the Lotus Restaurant in Minneapolis, who just witnessed a second assault on his business: “Watching looters bust down our family restaurant is so heartbreaking. Senseless, they’re doing it while laughing and smirking. Not gonna lie, I damn near shot a man tonight. He threw that fucking rock at my family photo and looked right at me. I said ‘you motherfucker …’ tears immediately rolled down my face. I just can’t no more. I’m thankful I walked away but Fuck y’all.” This is how violence metastasizes. And as I’ve watched protests devolve over the summer into a series of riots, arson expeditions, and lawless occupations of city blocks, along with disgusting and often racist profanity, I’ve begun to feel similarly. And when I watched the Democratic Convention and heard close to nothing about ending this lawlessness, I noted the silence.

I don’t think I’m the only one, as even the Democrats seem now to realize. And this massive blindspot is not hard to understand. When a political party finds itself so wedded to a new and potent ideology it cannot call out violence when it sees it, then it is walking straight into a trap. When the discourse on the left has become one in which scholars and editors and Tweeters vie with one another to up the ante on how inherently evil America has always been, redescribe it as a slaveocracy, and endorse racist books that foment the most egregious stereotypes about “whiteness”, most ordinary people, who love their country and are mostly proud of its past, will rightly balk. One of the most devastating lines in president Trump’s convention speech last night was this: “Tonight, I ask you a very simple question: How can the Democrat Party ask to lead our country when it spends so much time tearing down our country?” A cheap shot, yes. But in the current context, a political bullseye.

[AZGrizFan]

The left (the Party) has lost total control of the narrative. They’ve been swimming upstream against a tide of violence and destruction, attempting to align themselves with something while at the same time probably knowing deep down that it’s going to cost them this election, and possibly the house. And if that happens, these people will double down (as the mainstream party did THIS year), and you could see a spiral that ultimate fractures the Democratic Party for years to come.

[BDKJMU]

Can we please just stop with the thing about there being a significant effect of people who plan to vote for Trump lying to pollser?

Look, the 2016 Real Clear Politics average for the overall vote was Clinton 45.2% and and Trump 42.2% The actual result was Clinton 48.2% and Trump 46.1%. Both actuals were somewhat higher than actuals. Clinton's actual was was 3.0 percentage points higher and Trump's actual was 3.9 percentage points higher.

This thing about there being a significant effect whereby people who plan to vote for Trump are lying to pollsters is absolute nonsense.

Study: Are Election 2020 Poll Respondents Honest About Their Vote?

......What CloudResearch Found
*11.7% of Republicans say they would not report their true opinions about their preferred presidential candidate on telephone polls.
*In contrast, just 5.4% of Democrats say they’d be reluctant to share their true voting intentions — roughly half the number of Republicans reluctant to tell the truth on phone polls.
*10.5% of Independents fell into the “shy voter” category, just a percentage point lower than how Republicans react to phone polls.

After asking about people expressing their true opinions on telephone calls, we then inquired about their preferred candidate. This ordering was important as we did not want to fall into the same trap as other pollsters who tend to lead with preference declarations. When we broke the responses down based on current Trump vs Biden supporters, we found the following:

*10.1% of Trump supporters said they were likely to be untruthful on phone surveys — double the number of Biden supporters (5.1%) reticent to share their true intentions......

https://www.cloudresearch.com/resources ... t-honesty/

[Ivytalk]

Mrs. Ivy raises an interesting question. If enough Trump voters lie to pollsters about their intentions, thus artificially inflating Biden’s numbers, could those inflated numbers deter other voters from casting their ballots for Trump?

[houndawg]

The Trap The Democrats Walked Right Into

In the current chaos, I’ve come to appreciate Marcus Aurelius’s maxim that “The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” And I have to say I’m horribly conflicted on some issues. I’m supportive of attempts to interrogate the sins of the past, in particular the gruesome legacy of slavery and segregation, and their persistent impact on the present. And in that sense, I’m a supporter of the motives of the good folks involved with the Black Lives Matter movement. But I’m equally repelled by the insistent attempt by BLM and its ideological founders to malign and dismiss the huge progress we’ve made, to re-describe the American experiment in freedom as one utterly defined by racism, and to call the most tolerant country on the planet, with unprecedented demographic diversity, a form of “white supremacy”. I’m tired of hearing Kamala Harris say, as she did yesterday: “The reality is that the life of a black person in America has never been treated as fully human.” This is what Trump has long defended as “truthful hyperbole” — which is a euphemism for a lie.

But here’s one thing I have absolutely no conflict about. Rioting and lawlessness is evil. And any civil authority that permits, condones or dismisses violence, looting and mayhem in the streets disqualifies itself from any legitimacy. This comes first. If one party supports everything I believe in but doesn’t believe in maintaining law and order all the time and everywhere, I’ll back a party that does. In that sense, I’m a one-issue voter, because without order, there is no room for any other issue. Disorder always and everywhere begets more disorder; the minute the authorities appear to permit such violence, it is destined to grow. And if liberals do not defend order, fascists will

.

https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/t ... lked-right

...sounds like the current admin to me, n'est pas? From Day One their whole schtick has been to create chaos somewhere then take credit for "solving" the "problem".

[Col Hogan]

Some people work overtime telling us voter fraud is virtually non-existent in this country...Really???

A top Democratic operative says voter fraud, especially with mail-in ballots, is no myth. And he knows this because he’s been doing it, on a grand scale, for decades.

Mail-in ballots have become the latest flashpoint in the 2020 elections. While President Trump and the GOP warn of widespread manipulation of the absentee vote that will swell with COVID polling restrictions, many Democrats and their media allies have dismissed such concerns as unfounded.

But the political insider, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he fears prosecution, said fraud is more the rule than the exception. His dirty work has taken him through the weeds of municipal and federal elections in Paterson, Atlantic City, Camden, Newark, Hoboken and Hudson County and his fingerprints can be found in local legislative, mayoral and congressional races across the Garden State. Some of the biggest names and highest office holders in New Jersey have benefited from his tricks, according to campaign records The Post reviewed

.

https://nypost.com/2020/08/29/political ... n-ballots/

[houndawg]

Mrs. Ivy raises an interesting question. If enough Trump voters lie to pollsters about their intentions, thus artificially inflating Biden’s numbers, could those inflated numbers deter other voters from casting their ballots for Trump?

Good question - and I wonder if them KPOPS, or whatever they call those people that chumped him by buying up all the tickets to his rallies, are involved

[Ivytalk]

Seeing lots of articles citing recent optimism among Trump supporters and nervousness (or worse) among Biden supporters. Optimism generates turnout and wins elections. The young Twirpz of the world will man the barricades but fail to vote.

[houndawg]

Some people work overtime telling us voter fraud is virtually non-existent in this country...Really???

A top Democratic operative says voter fraud, especially with mail-in ballots, is no myth. And he knows this because he’s been doing it, on a grand scale, for decades.

Mail-in ballots have become the latest flashpoint in the 2020 elections. While President Trump and the GOP warn of widespread manipulation of the absentee vote that will swell with COVID polling restrictions, many Democrats and their media allies have dismissed such concerns as unfounded.

But the political insider, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he fears prosecution, said fraud is more the rule than the exception. His dirty work has taken him through the weeds of municipal and federal elections in Paterson, Atlantic City, Camden, Newark, Hoboken and Hudson County and his fingerprints can be found in local legislative, mayoral and congressional races across the Garden State. Some of the biggest names and highest office holders in New Jersey have benefited from his tricks, according to campaign records The Post reviewed

.

https://nypost.com/2020/08/29/political ... n-ballots/

Maybe more prevalent than "they" let on, but the real money is still in voter suppression

[houndawg]

Seeing lots of articles citing recent optimism among Trump supporters and nervousness (or worse) among Biden supporters. Optimism generates turnout and wins elections. The young Twirpz of the world will man the barricades but fail to vote.

*twerps

[Ivytalk]

Seeing lots of articles citing recent optimism among Trump supporters and nervousness (or worse) among Biden supporters. Optimism generates turnout and wins elections. The young Twirpz of the world will man the barricades but fail to vote.

*twerps

Twirpz. Flew right over your head. Try to keep up. I’m trolling here.

[houndawg]

*twerps

Twirpz. Flew right over your head. Try to keep up. I’m trolling here.

try harder

[Ivytalk]

Twirpz. Flew right over your head. Try to keep up. I’m trolling here.

try harder

Wasn’t trolling for you. You’re just a lazy 10-pound catfish that bites at anything.

[Baldy]

Seeing lots of articles citing recent optimism among Trump supporters and nervousness (or worse) among Biden supporters. Optimism generates turnout and wins elections. The young Twirpz of the world will man the barricades but fail to vote.

They're really worried. The talking heads at CNN and MSNBC are begging Joe on the air to make a speech about the violence and to go to Kenosha.

[CitadelGrad]

Election fraud is just a myth.

https://nypost.com/2020/08/29/political ... Fb6T0f9aqY

[SDHornet]

No way they let Joe debate Trump, absolutely no way.

[Baldy]

No way they let Joe debate Trump, absolutely no way.

Since Trip, dback and JSO think Biden is clear thinking and sane, maybe they can interpret for us.