How Trump Wins

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Gil Dobie
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by Gil Dobie »

GannonFan wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:55 am
houndawg wrote:
Sun Aug 30, 2020 3:27 am


Sometimes I think the democrats want to lose.
I have to admit, that thought has popped into my head from time to time. The mad rush to nominate Biden to stave off a Bernie nomination may have been the right short term approach but wrong in the long term.
Probably end up like 2016, Trump wins electoral college and Biden wins popular vote.
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by GannonFan »

Gil Dobie wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:42 am
GannonFan wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:55 am


I have to admit, that thought has popped into my head from time to time. The mad rush to nominate Biden to stave off a Bernie nomination may have been the right short term approach but wrong in the long term.
Probably end up like 2016, Trump wins electoral college and Biden wins popular vote.
That wouldn't shock me at all. I'd expect Biden to do better than Hillary's paltry 227 electoral votes, but I'm not getting the warm fuzzy right now that he gets 270. Still a lot could change between now and then - heck, the race has changed significantly in just the last two weeks.
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by Ivytalk »

Democrats: 1. The Pandemic! 2. Trump bad!

Republicans: 1. Crime and riots! 2. Socialism!

Continuous loop for the next two months.
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by Winterborn »

Ivytalk wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:50 am
Democrats: 1. The Pandemic! 2. Trump bad!

Republicans: 1. Crime and riots! 2. Socialism!

Continuous loop for the next two months.
Yuck. Can we just fast forward til after the election?
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Gil Dobie
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by Gil Dobie »

Winterborn wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:12 pm
Ivytalk wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:50 am
Democrats: 1. The Pandemic! 2. Trump bad!

Republicans: 1. Crime and riots! 2. Socialism!

Continuous loop for the next two months.
Yuck. Can we just fast forward til after the election?
Then you get to hear all about the loser's conspiracies, possible recounts, etc, etc for a few months to a year, or 4 if Trump wins.
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by Winterborn »

Gil Dobie wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:01 pm
Winterborn wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:12 pm


Yuck. Can we just fast forward til after the election?
Then you get to hear all about the loser's conspiracies, possible recounts, etc, etc for a few months to a year, or 4 if Trump wins.
I am trying to think happy thoughts here, but you and 88 keep on trying to bring me down. :ohno: :D
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by CID1990 »

How Trump wins?

Howzabout “How Biden gives it away”?
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by houndawg »

GannonFan wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:55 am
houndawg wrote:
Sun Aug 30, 2020 3:27 am


Sometimes I think the democrats want to lose.
I have to admit, that thought has popped into my head from time to time. The mad rush to nominate Biden to stave off a Bernie nomination may have been the right short term approach but wrong in the long term.
You deep six guy who is filling stadiums and raising record amounts of money $20 at a time for a tired old hack who is speaking to crowds of dozens but has a few corporate donors with unlimited resources. Which coincides exactly with my years old prediction, probably still archived right here, in a Citizens United thread, that the passage of CU was officially GAME OVER for us and made it official that government is for sale to the highest bidder. The usual short-sighted crowd scoffed, like they always do but here we are. Let all bow down before the Oracle of Little Egypt.... :notworthy:
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by houndawg »

CID1990 wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:14 pm
How Trump wins?

Howzabout “How Biden gives it away”?
he sounds tired and looks feeble
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by CID1990 »

houndawg wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:14 pm
How Trump wins?

Howzabout “How Biden gives it away”?
he sounds tired and looks feeble
That isn’t even the start of it


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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by houndawg »

CID1990 wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:44 pm
houndawg wrote:
he sounds tired and looks feeble
That isn’t even the start of it


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They can't be that stupid again after the debacle last time. They either want to lose or they're Republicans too.
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by houndawg »

Ivytalk wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:50 am
Democrats: 1. Losers and suckers 2. Trump bad!

Republicans: 1. Crime and riots! 2. Socialism!

Continuous loop for the next two months.
There's been a change in the agenda :coffee:
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by SeattleGriz »

SeattleGriz wrote:
Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:56 am
Gil Dobie wrote:
Fri Aug 21, 2020 9:12 pm


I hear a lot of devout Christians saying they won't vote for Biden because of his party's late term abortion stance. They are holding their noses and voting Trump.
Well that's just hypocritical of Christians! Trump takes 37 states this time.
Just want to bring this to the front.

37 states. Called it back in August.
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by AZGrizFan »

SeattleGriz wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:55 pm
SeattleGriz wrote:
Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:56 am


Well that's just hypocritical of Christians! Trump takes 37 states this time.
Just want to bring this to the front.

37 states. Called it back in August.
Name them. :coffee: :coffee:
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by SeattleGriz »

AZGrizFan wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:34 pm
SeattleGriz wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:55 pm


Just want to bring this to the front.

37 states. Called it back in August.
Name them. :coffee: :coffee:
The 30 he won last time, plus:
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Maine
Virginia
Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by GannonFan »

SeattleGriz wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:30 am
AZGrizFan wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:34 pm


Name them. :coffee: :coffee:
The 30 he won last time, plus:
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Maine
Virginia
Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada
Virginia? He ain't winning Virginia.
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by SeattleGriz »

GannonFan wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:46 am
SeattleGriz wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:30 am


The 30 he won last time, plus:
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Maine
Virginia
Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada
Virginia? He ain't winning Virginia.
Stealing this phrase from Andy.

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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by AZGrizFan »

SeattleGriz wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:30 am
AZGrizFan wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:34 pm


Name them. :coffee: :coffee:
The 30 he won last time, plus:
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Maine
Virginia
Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada
Well, I don’t think the 30 he won last time are a lock...and he ain’t winning Minnesota, Virginia, (all of) Maine, or New Mexico.

And Nevada is iffy.
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by SeattleGriz »

AZGrizFan wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:37 pm
SeattleGriz wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:30 am


The 30 he won last time, plus:
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Maine
Virginia
Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada
Well, I don’t think the 30 he won last time are a lock...and he ain’t winning Minnesota, Virginia, (all of) Maine, or New Mexico.

And Nevada is iffy.
We shall see. Mwahaha.
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by BDKJMU »

AZGrizFan wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:37 pm
SeattleGriz wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:30 am


The 30 he won last time, plus:
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Maine
Virginia
Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada
Well, I don’t think the 30 he won last time are a lock...and he ain’t winning Minnesota, Virginia, (all of) Maine, or New Mexico.

And Nevada is iffy.
I like Seattle’s optimisum, but I’m probably the most pro Trump guy here, and I say Trumps absolute best case, remote chance scenario, running the table, is 33 states..too bad we don’t have access to both side’s internals..$$$ is a better indicator than public polls...
https://www.predictit.org/
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by SeattleGriz »

BDKJMU wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:33 pm
AZGrizFan wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:37 pm


Well, I don’t think the 30 he won last time are a lock...and he ain’t winning Minnesota, Virginia, (all of) Maine, or New Mexico.

And Nevada is iffy.
I like Seattle’s optimisum, but I’m probably the most pro Trump guy here, and I say Trumps absolute best case, remote chance scenario, running the table, is 33 states..too bad we don’t have access to both side’s internals..$$$ is a better indicator than public polls...
https://www.predictit.org/
Can't say how reliable this site is, but they use screenshots from a Dem firm. Shows how the Dems aren't building the early vote leads they were hoping for.

It's not all the states, but ones essential to Trump's victory. Assume this is holding true for other states as well. Plus, Trump has had a huge ground game registering new voters in addition to retaining the ones that propelled him to victory in 2016.

Biden just isn't generating that sort of enthusiasm.

https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/dems- ... tes/?amp=1
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by BDKJMU »

SeattleGriz wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:41 pm
BDKJMU wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:33 pm

I like Seattle’s optimisum, but I’m probably the most pro Trump guy here, and I say Trumps absolute best case, remote chance scenario, running the table, is 33 states..too bad we don’t have access to both side’s internals..$$$ is a better indicator than public polls...
https://www.predictit.org/
Can't say how reliable this site is, but they use screenshots from a Dem firm. Shows how the Dems aren't building the early vote leads they were hoping for.

It's not all the states, but ones essential to Trump's victory. Assume this is holding true for other states as well. Plus, Trump has had a huge ground game registering new voters in addition to retaining the ones that propelled him to victory in 2016.

Biden just isn't generating that sort of enthusiasm.

https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/dems- ... tes/?amp=1
How ironic would it be if the lockdowns in some key swing states with donk govs (MI, WI, PA, NC) the 4 that are mentioned, end up severely hurting democrats, costing them (or at least contributing to them) losing those states?
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by SeattleGriz »

BDKJMU wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:48 pm
SeattleGriz wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:41 pm


Can't say how reliable this site is, but they use screenshots from a Dem firm. Shows how the Dems aren't building the early vote leads they were hoping for.

It's not all the states, but ones essential to Trump's victory. Assume this is holding true for other states as well. Plus, Trump has had a huge ground game registering new voters in addition to retaining the ones that propelled him to victory in 2016.

Biden just isn't generating that sort of enthusiasm.

https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/dems- ... tes/?amp=1
How ironic would it be if the lockdowns in some key swing states with donk govs (MI, WI, PA, NC) the 4 that are mentioned, end up severely hurting democrats, costing them (or at least contributing to them) losing those states?
It would be par for the course. Dems are losers. Of course before Trump, it was the Reps.
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by Ibanez »

BDKJMU wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:33 pm
AZGrizFan wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:37 pm


Well, I don’t think the 30 he won last time are a lock...and he ain’t winning Minnesota, Virginia, (all of) Maine, or New Mexico.

And Nevada is iffy.
I like Seattle’s optimisum, but I’m probably the most pro Trump guy here, and I say Trumps absolute best case, remote chance scenario, running the table, is 33 states..too bad we don’t have access to both side’s internals..$$$ is a better indicator than public polls...
https://www.predictit.org/
If you think $$$ is a better indicator than polls (which isn't without merit. Why would you continue to give money to someone you don't support?) then....
President Trump stopped all of his television and radio advertising in three states and substantially reduced it in four others in recent weeks after his lackluster fundraising left him unable to match a surge in spending by his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.

Trump’s retreat from Ohio, Iowa and New Hampshire reflects his struggle to change the dynamics of a race that polls suggest he is on track to lose. In the six weeks since his party’s national convention, Trump’s campaign has yanked more than $17 million in ads he’d previously booked in those states.
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/ ... und-states



However - late in any campaign, there are decisions about which states you can go dark in and still have a reasonable shot at winning vs which states you have to pour money into. It cannot be an easy decision regardless if you're the front runner or not. :twocents: :coffee:
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Re: How Trump Wins

Post by Ibanez »

BDKJMU wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:48 pm
SeattleGriz wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:41 pm


Can't say how reliable this site is, but they use screenshots from a Dem firm. Shows how the Dems aren't building the early vote leads they were hoping for.

It's not all the states, but ones essential to Trump's victory. Assume this is holding true for other states as well. Plus, Trump has had a huge ground game registering new voters in addition to retaining the ones that propelled him to victory in 2016.

Biden just isn't generating that sort of enthusiasm.

https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/dems- ... tes/?amp=1
How ironic would it be if the lockdowns in some key swing states with donk govs (MI, WI, PA, NC) the 4 that are mentioned, end up severely hurting democrats, costing them (or at least contributing to them) losing those states?
That would be interesting.

Only because I just saw this and i'm 6 mi from the SC/NC border and get the NC news

https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/elec ... statistics
Almost 47 percent of all registered voters in North Carolina have cast their ballots a week before Election Day, according to figures from the state board of elections.
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watc ... ve-already

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/polit ... 23076.html
More North Carolina voters have already cast absentee ballots through mail-in and in-person early voting than in all of 2016.

About 3.17 million absentee ballots had been cast in North Carolina as of Sunday, nine days before Election Day, records show. The number will continue to climb as early-voting sites remain open this week and mail-in ballots continue to roll in.

In 2016, a total of about 3.14 million North Carolinians used absentee voting.

“We’ve never seen numbers of this magnitude, ever, in North Carolina,” said Michael Bitzer, a political science professor at Catawba College in Salisbury and one of the state’s leading political experts.

The coronavirus pandemic has been a big reason for the increase, with many people opting for mail-in ballots instead of going to the polls. Nearly 780,000 North Carolinians have mailed in their ballots, and another 650,000 have requested mail-in ballots but have not yet sent them back.

Four years ago, fewer than 200,000 people voted by mail in North Carolina.
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