Coronavirus COVID-19

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Gil Dobie »

Skjellyfetti wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:08 pm Image
FCS football should be rolling at that time.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by CAA Flagship »

Winterborn wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:30 pm
Gil Dobie wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:24 pm

A little less than half as many active cases as Minnesota, with approx 1/8 the population of Minnesota.
It was bound to happen sooner or later as every area goes through either 1 big spike or a couple of smaller ones. As long as the hospitalizations stay low (this seems to be a younger age group testing positive as well), there isn't a need to worry and there is plenty of reserve available. Everybody will get it before this is "declared" over.
Yes, of course. It's a matter of finding the balance between virus and economy. Nobody, knew where that balance is back in March, and still don't today. Human behavior is difficult to predict. The shutdowns were effective because people were scared. Now they are bored and not as afraid, and willing to take risks to offset economic pain. The "balance" is a moving target and fluctuations will happen in the data (both health and economic) as adjustments are made.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by BDKJMU »

Common sense prevails in Florida. :nod:
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed an executive order Friday allowing restaurants and bars to immediately begin operating at 100% capacity.

The move means the state is transitioning into Phase 3 of reopening. The order treats restaurants and bars differently in terms of what local municipalities can do to restrict operations.

“There will not be limitations, from the state of Florida,” he said.

DeSantis said he fully expects the state to host a “full Super Bowl” in February. The Super Bowl is scheduled to be held in Tampa Bay on February 7, 2021, according to the event’s website.

“We expect to do a full Super Bowl and we’re going to show that we’re going to be able to do that,” he said.

DeSantis’ order says no Covid-19 emergency ordinance can prevent a person from working or from operating a business. Local governments are unable to limit restaurants to less than 50% capacity under DeSantis’ new order, even with local government Covid-19 emergency orders.

If a local government Covid-19 emergency order limiting restaurant to less than 100% of its indoor capacity but above 50%, the government must explain why the limitation is necessary for public health and quantify the economic impact of the limits.

“If a local (government) restricts between 50 and 100, they’ve got to provide the justification and they’ve got to identify what the costs are involved with doing that are,” DeSantis said....

....DeSantis, in "an act of executive grace," also suspended "all outstanding fines and penalties that have been applied against individuals" associated with pandemic-related mandates, like mask requirements.

"I think we need to get away from trying to penalize people for social distancing," DeSantis said. "All these fines we're going to hold in abeyance and hope that we can move forward in a way that's more collaborative."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/flori ... r-BB19qvZO
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

Montana is seeing a spike. 1000 cases over a 3-day period. Back to school, Labor Day, and late summer travel?

https://billingsgazette.com/news/local/ ... TJHDHFH1lc
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by BDKJMU »

kalm wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:11 am Montana is seeing a spike. 1000 cases over a 3-day period. Back to school, Labor Day, and late summer travel?

https://billingsgazette.com/news/local/ ... TJHDHFH1lc
Heck, JMU had I think over 1k cases in a couple weeks before they closed school/sent everyone home, and last I heard, zero hospitalizations.

Cases don’t matter- its hospitalizations & deaths..
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

BDKJMU wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:33 am
kalm wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:11 am Montana is seeing a spike. 1000 cases over a 3-day period. Back to school, Labor Day, and late summer travel?

https://billingsgazette.com/news/local/ ... TJHDHFH1lc
Heck, JMU had I think over 1k cases in a couple weeks before they closed school/sent everyone home, and last I heard, zero hospitalizations.

Cases don’t matter- its hospitalizations & deaths..
Not a great comparison considering population density and social behavior.

Cases matter. So do therapeutic treatments, preventative measures like early detection and loading up on Vitamin D. Those drive hospitalizations and deaths down. Cases drive those same numbers up.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Gil Dobie »

kalm wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:07 am
BDKJMU wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:33 am
Heck, JMU had I think over 1k cases in a couple weeks before they closed school/sent everyone home, and last I heard, zero hospitalizations.

Cases don’t matter- its hospitalizations & deaths..
Not a great comparison considering population density and social behavior.

Cases matter. So do therapeutic treatments, preventative measures like early detection and loading up on Vitamin D. Those drive hospitalizations and deaths down. Cases drive those same numbers up.
Active cases is the way I would put it. Active cases around here have doubled recently, but still below the first round of covid.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by AZGrizFan »

Active cases in Texas have been cut in half in the past 30 days.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by 89Hen »

Is this still a thing?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by BDKJMU »

89Hen wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:39 am Is this still a thing?
Yes. Until Nov 4.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

BDKJMU wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:57 am
89Hen wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:39 am Is this still a thing?
Yes. Until Nov 4.
We still know so little about it. Testing is questionable. Long term or at least lingering effects are still concerns...

Israel has had to shut back down almost completely.

We might not even be out of the first round yet.

The one optimistic part is improvement in treatments.

Very interesting read...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.gq.com ... esting/amp
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by 89Hen »

kalm wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:40 am Very interesting read...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.gq.com ... esting/amp
Sorry GQ is blocked on my computer. Just like Rolling Stone and all your other big "news" sources.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

89Hen wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:33 am
kalm wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:40 am Very interesting read...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.gq.com ... esting/amp
Sorry GQ is blocked on my computer. Just like Rolling Stone and all your other big "news" sources.
The fact you think that’s a burn is funny. :lol:
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Winterborn »

kalm wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:40 am
BDKJMU wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:57 am
Yes. Until Nov 4.
We still know so little about it. Testing is questionable. Long term or at least lingering effects are still concerns...

Israel has had to shut back down almost completely.

We might not even be out of the first round yet.

The one optimistic part is improvement in treatments.

Very interesting read...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.gq.com ... esting/amp
She should write a book. :coffee:


And I agree that we don't know much, but what we do know is enough to make some good judgment calls. As for long term effects, I guess we will find out in 10+ years when we get to the "long" portion of long term. Probably around the same time we will find out the long term effects of a rushed/fast tracked "vaccine".
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by 89Hen »

kalm wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:09 pm
89Hen wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:33 am

Sorry GQ is blocked on my computer. Just like Rolling Stone and all your other big "news" sources.
The fact you think that’s a burn is funny. :lol:
OK Trevor Noah.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

89Hen wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:58 pm
kalm wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:09 pm

The fact you think that’s a burn is funny. :lol:
OK Trevor Noah.
Well I’m guessing that’s another sick burn but I haven’t watched the Daily Show since Stewart left so I’ll just trust you’re awesome judgement. I’m rooting for ya, Champ!

:lol:
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

Winterborn wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:44 pm
kalm wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:40 am

We still know so little about it. Testing is questionable. Long term or at least lingering effects are still concerns...

Israel has had to shut back down almost completely.

We might not even be out of the first round yet.

The one optimistic part is improvement in treatments.

Very interesting read...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.gq.com ... esting/amp
She should write a book. :coffee:


And I agree that we don't know much, but what we do know is enough to make some good judgment calls. As for long term effects, I guess we will find out in 10+ years when we get to the "long" portion of long term. Probably around the same time we will find out the long term effects of a rushed/fast tracked "vaccine".
Thank you for proving the point.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Winterborn »

kalm wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:55 pm
Winterborn wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:44 pm

She should write a book. :coffee:


And I agree that we don't know much, but what we do know is enough to make some good judgment calls. As for long term effects, I guess we will find out in 10+ years when we get to the "long" portion of long term. Probably around the same time we will find out the long term effects of a rushed/fast tracked "vaccine".
Thank you for proving the point.
What point is that?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by 89Hen »

kalm wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:55 pm
89Hen wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:58 pm
OK Trevor Noah.
Well I’m guessing that’s another sick burn but I haven’t watched the Daily Show since Stewart left so I’ll just trust you’re awesome judgement. I’m rooting for ya, Champ!

:lol:
I am awesome judgement? You said it brother. :thumb:
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

Winterborn wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:58 pm
kalm wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:55 pm

Thank you for proving the point.
What point is that?
We still don’t know much about and it’s short term and long effects.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

89Hen wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:58 pm
kalm wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:55 pm

Well I’m guessing that’s another sick burn but I haven’t watched the Daily Show since Stewart left so I’ll just trust you’re awesome judgement. I’m rooting for ya, Champ!

:lol:
I am awesome judgement? You said it brother. :thumb:
Yes...yes you are.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Six months ago I was hoping this thing is seasonal. I think there have been some indications that it is to some extent. Now I am hoping that it is not. If it is, we could be about to be whacked really hard.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Winterborn »

kalm wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 2:31 pm
Winterborn wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:58 pm

What point is that?
We still don’t know much about and it’s short term and long effects.
I can see those points and figured that is what you meant but wanted to make sure. :thumb:

Short term I would argue that we know enough to make a good decision for the overall general wellbeing of society. Long term based on what some indications from the general population cases is that some people will have long term side effects but over all it will be within a percentage point or two of other similar viruses.

From my perspective there are two overall viewpoints/camps: Academic vs. Practical/Business.

You have the academic side in which they are used to having all the data and then making a decisions (much like the simulations I ran in college for my engineering and business classes) and where there was a certain threshold of data needed to make it comfortable to make a decision. One can never have too much data before making a decision.

On the other side is the practical/business side in which one is weighing other factors (economic, etc.) in the decision making and realizing that you cannot wait for all the data but need to make a decision based on what is known now and adjust later.

I see this quite often in professors that try to move over to the corporate side and get frustrated when they are not allowed all the time/money to gather the data they feel is necessary to make a decision. Or when they do have enough time they wait too long and wind up missing the market. There is also the fact of moving too quickly as some business leaders are apt to do and wind up with similar results. It boils down to a balance call between the two (Flaggy has said this on numerous occasions) and much of it comes down to leadership (to your point from a few days/weeks ago).

Earlier this year I definitely think we needed to know more about COVID before making a decision and that a shutdown was warranted till more information was known. Now the length of that shutdown can be argued either way but that is the befit of hind site. What we do know is that it is no where near as lethal and that for the vast majority of the population it isn't going to interfere with life and their activities. The media likes to hype the outliers or the uncertainty as that is what makes people tune in and in many cases have gone too far down that path, IMHO. For a situation such as this one must not look at the outliers but the overall effect on the general population as they are the ones you have to be concerned with. The 95 percentile of the population is where you concentrate at. Not saying you ignore the other 5% but over all you put the resources where it will do the most good and that is where your decision making process should end and start.

People (and their followers) for the most part fall into those two camps. And you don't have to look much further than this very board.

I completely ignored the whole emotional response (or lack thereof) in this whole matter, as while it does play into peoples thought/decision process, the breakdown is widely the same as the two camps I mentioned above. This whole subject would make a fascinating psychology PhD research paper and maybe if I go back to school I will get around to it. :)
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

Winterborn wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:35 pm
kalm wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 2:31 pm

We still don’t know much about and it’s short term and long effects.
I can see those points and figured that is what you meant but wanted to make sure. :thumb:

Short term I would argue that we know enough to make a good decision for the overall general wellbeing of society. Long term based on what some indications from the general population cases is that some people will have long term side effects but over all it will be within a percentage point or two of other similar viruses.

From my perspective there are two overall viewpoints/camps: Academic vs. Practical/Business.

You have the academic side in which they are used to having all the data and then making a decisions (much like the simulations I ran in college for my engineering and business classes) and where there was a certain threshold of data needed to make it comfortable to make a decision. One can never have too much data before making a decision.

On the other side is the practical/business side in which one is weighing other factors (economic, etc.) in the decision making and realizing that you cannot wait for all the data but need to make a decision based on what is known now and adjust later.

I see this quite often in professors that try to move over to the corporate side and get frustrated when they are not allowed all the time/money to gather the data they feel is necessary to make a decision. Or when they do have enough time they wait too long and wind up missing the market. There is also the fact of moving too quickly as some business leaders are apt to do and wind up with similar results. It boils down to a balance call between the two (Flaggy has said this on numerous occasions) and much of it comes down to leadership (to your point from a few days/weeks ago).

Earlier this year I definitely think we needed to know more about COVID before making a decision and that a shutdown was warranted till more information was known. Now the length of that shutdown can be argued either way but that is the befit of hind site. What we do know is that it is no where near as lethal and that for the vast majority of the population it isn't going to interfere with life and their activities. The media likes to hype the outliers or the uncertainty as that is what makes people tune in and in many cases have gone too far down that path, IMHO. For a situation such as this one must not look at the outliers but the overall effect on the general population as they are the ones you have to be concerned with. The 95 percentile of the population is where you concentrate at. Not saying you ignore the other 5% but over all you put the resources where it will do the most good and that is where your decision making process should end and start.

People (and their followers) for the most part fall into those two camps. And you don't have to look much further than this very board.

I completely ignored the whole emotional response (or lack thereof) in this whole matter, as while it does play into peoples thought/decision process, the breakdown is widely the same as the two camps I mentioned above. This whole subject would make a fascinating psychology PhD research paper and maybe if I go back to school I will get around to it. :)
Risk aversion definitely influences emotions on the matter. Covid has caused seventy 9/11’s. For some (often the same people who were saying we shouldn’t close down back in the Spring) that still means it’s just the flu , we have enough information, let’s find normal again. Chasing normal either from a public health perspective or an economic one is irrational at this point. Simply opening back up is not a guarantee of economic revival either...for numerous reasons.

Here’s another interesting read on infections, long term effects and deaths in young adults. Forget about “tough luck, grandma”, 1/3 are obese, 1/4 are morbidly obese, and many of them work for small businesses which represent 80% of US companies and can’t easily absorb months of sick leave. It’s becoming apparent that it isn’t as simple as being down for a few days like the flu.
New findings published this month further reveal how severely Covid-19 can affect young adults. A research paper published in JAMA Internal Medicine found that among more than 3,200 adults ages 18 to 34 who were hospitalized with the disease, 21 percent required intensive care, 10 percent required mechanical ventilation and nearly 3 percent — 88 patients — died. Of those who survived, 3 percent — 99 patients — had to be discharged to another health care facility to continue their recoveries.....

Solomon and colleagues used a large health care database to look at serious Covid-19 illnesses in young adults hospitalized in April, May or June. Of the more than 1,000 U.S. hospitals in the database, which treated a total of 63,103 Covid-19 patients during the study period, 3,222 patients, or 5 percent, were young adults admitted to 419 hospitals.

Overall, 58 percent of the young adult patients were men, and 57 percent were Black or Hispanic. More than a third were obese, including 25 percent who were morbidly obese (with body mass indexes of 40 or higher), 18 percent had diabetes, and 16 percent had hypertension. The young adult patients who had more than one of those underlying health conditions had the same risks from Covid-19 as middle-age adults without those conditions, the study found
.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... bCQe4HzyTI
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