BDKJMU wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:00 pm
Ibanez wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 2:18 pm
Now you're changing the goal posts. I said 2016 was an outlier with regards to polling. You're saying it's an outlier b/c we never had an election (I'm assuming you mean presidential) during a pandemic. Those are two different topics. You've strayed from the topic.
I’m not changing the goalposts.
2016 was an outlier because of polling (but JSO will argue the polls were right)
2020 is an outlier because of the pamsdemic & voting mail. That doesn’t affect the polling, but means the results likely won’t match the polling.
You are b/c my main point was 2016 was an outlier b/c of the polling and you're bringing in a completely different subject. The polls in 2016 are an outlier and everyone and everything that does polls have learned (hopefully) from the mistakes of 2016. We will know for sure in 3 weeks how right they are, but you can't really point to 1 year out of dozens and say you can't trust the polls or the polls are wrong . There's more evidence that polling is accurate.
2020 will be an interesting year - we've been voting all year during a pandemic but this is hardly the first election year we've had to vote for President during difficult times. We've voted during the Civil War, WW2, Vietnam, etc... Voting by mail isn't a novelty, but we all know it will be utilized more this year than any other year. So will early voting. In fact, looking at past results, it seems that turn out has increased.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we ... from-them/
Let's switch gears for a moment and talk about mail-in voting: You, no doubt, are concerned about the potential for fraud contributed to mail-in voting. However, we've seen examples of fraudulent ballots being recognized upon delivery and not being counted. In fact, voter fraud cases brought by the Republicans have been failing - and some at the hands of Trump-appointed judges.
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/10/92267381 ... nnsylvania
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... fraud-rate
Minnesota’s plan to accept mail-in ballots until a week after Election Day survived another Republican challenge when a federal judge ruled that GOP claims of potential fraud don’t hold up to evidence -- the rate of voter fraud in the state is just 0.000004% since 1979.
Nobody is saying attempts don't exist or that some fraudulent ballots might get voted - but the evidence seems to suggest that the rate overall is very low and any fraudulent ballot more than likely won't affect the outcome.
If you want to talk about voter fraud and dumb people, then look no further tothe California Republicans who tried to prove voter fraud....by committing it. They feel there's nothing wrong with a political party collecting ballots. Oh...and we're supposed to trust that they'll deliver those ballots..all of them.
Republicans have been accused of setting up fake 'official' ballot drop-off boxes in California which state officials say are illegal.
Metal boxes have been set up across southern California accompanied by signs which read, 'Official ballot drop off box'.
The State's GOP has been urging voters to use the boxes to post their mail-in ballots, at locations which include smog checks and gas stations.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ornia.html
