Coronavirus COVID-19

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Gil Dobie
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Gil Dobie »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:37 am
Gil Dobie wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:30 am

Do we have pneumonia and flu vaccines?

We are not really protecting people right now, we are reducing the chance of people getting Covid. By what percentage, I don't know, maybe it gives the people in nursing homes a better chance for a few more years.
We do have vaccines, but you are going to have to pick a number because even with vaccines, there were still around 60K that died due to Flu and Pneumonia last year. The effectiveness of the vaccines varies from year to year, so that number could go much higher. Right now we have no clue how effective a COVID vaccine will be in preventing deaths.

This is why I keep referring to this chart. It lumps all three of them together and shows an epidemic threshold. That threshold is an actual number.

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Only 40% of people get the flu vaccine, how many die if everyone is vaccinated? The vaccine does not prevent the flu, it does help us get to herd immunity with less death.

Are your flu deaths from a peak year like 2017-2018? 2018-19 flu deaths were 34,200. With only 40% of people getting the flu vaccine,

Link
Year
2010-11, 37,000 deaths
2011-12, 12,000
2012-13, 43,000
2013-14, 38,000
2014-15, 51,000
2015-16, 23,000
2016-17, 38,000
2017-18, 61,000
2018-19, 34,000
2019-20, 22,000

Link
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza

Flu vaccine prevents millions of illnesses and flu-related doctor’s visits each year. For example, during 2018-2019, flu vaccination prevented an estimated 4.4 million influenza illnesses, 2.3 million influenza-associated medical visits, 58,000 influenza-associated hospitalizations, and 3,500 influenza-associated deaths.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by AZGrizFan »

Gil Dobie wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 3:08 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:37 am

We do have vaccines, but you are going to have to pick a number because even with vaccines, there were still around 60K that died due to Flu and Pneumonia last year. The effectiveness of the vaccines varies from year to year, so that number could go much higher. Right now we have no clue how effective a COVID vaccine will be in preventing deaths.

This is why I keep referring to this chart. It lumps all three of them together and shows an epidemic threshold. That threshold is an actual number.

Image
Only 40% of people get the flu vaccine, how many die if everyone is vaccinated? The vaccine does not prevent the flu, it does help us get to herd immunity with less death.

Are your flu deaths from a peak year like 2017-2018? 2018-19 flu deaths were 34,200. With only 40% of people getting the flu vaccine,

Link
Year
2010-11, 37,000 deaths
2011-12, 12,000
2012-13, 43,000
2013-14, 38,000
2014-15, 51,000
2015-16, 23,000
2016-17, 38,000
2017-18, 61,000
2018-19, 34,000
2019-20, 22,000

Link
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza

Flu vaccine prevents millions of illnesses and flu-related doctor’s visits each year. For example, during 2018-2019, flu vaccination prevented an estimated 4.4 million influenza illnesses, 2.3 million influenza-associated medical visits, 58,000 influenza-associated hospitalizations, and 3,500 influenza-associated deaths.
Imagine if we’d been locking down and wearing masks all along. How many people could we have saved?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

Gil Dobie wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 3:08 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:37 am

We do have vaccines, but you are going to have to pick a number because even with vaccines, there were still around 60K that died due to Flu and Pneumonia last year. The effectiveness of the vaccines varies from year to year, so that number could go much higher. Right now we have no clue how effective a COVID vaccine will be in preventing deaths.

This is why I keep referring to this chart. It lumps all three of them together and shows an epidemic threshold. That threshold is an actual number.

Image
Only 40% of people get the flu vaccine, how many die if everyone is vaccinated? The vaccine does not prevent the flu, it does help us get to herd immunity with less death.

Are your flu deaths from a peak year like 2017-2018? 2018-19 flu deaths were 34,200. With only 40% of people getting the flu vaccine,

Link
Year
2010-11, 37,000 deaths
2011-12, 12,000
2012-13, 43,000
2013-14, 38,000
2014-15, 51,000
2015-16, 23,000
2016-17, 38,000
2017-18, 61,000
2018-19, 34,000
2019-20, 22,000

Link
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza

Flu vaccine prevents millions of illnesses and flu-related doctor’s visits each year. For example, during 2018-2019, flu vaccination prevented an estimated 4.4 million influenza illnesses, 2.3 million influenza-associated medical visits, 58,000 influenza-associated hospitalizations, and 3,500 influenza-associated deaths.
Oh, hell no!

You didn't just shoot down my idea of using the CDC's recommendation of an epidemic threshold to determine a good point for COVID, Flu and Pneumonia restrictions...and THEN quote the CDC back to me.

Dude. Give up your white whale mission of convincing anyone after this point. You are simply trolling.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Gil Dobie »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:17 pm
Gil Dobie wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 3:08 pm

Only 40% of people get the flu vaccine, how many die if everyone is vaccinated? The vaccine does not prevent the flu, it does help us get to herd immunity with less death.

Are your flu deaths from a peak year like 2017-2018? 2018-19 flu deaths were 34,200. With only 40% of people getting the flu vaccine,

Link
Year
2010-11, 37,000 deaths
2011-12, 12,000
2012-13, 43,000
2013-14, 38,000
2014-15, 51,000
2015-16, 23,000
2016-17, 38,000
2017-18, 61,000
2018-19, 34,000
2019-20, 22,000

Link
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza

Flu vaccine prevents millions of illnesses and flu-related doctor’s visits each year. For example, during 2018-2019, flu vaccination prevented an estimated 4.4 million influenza illnesses, 2.3 million influenza-associated medical visits, 58,000 influenza-associated hospitalizations, and 3,500 influenza-associated deaths.
Oh, hell no!

You didn't just shoot down my idea of using the CDC's recommendation of an epidemic threshold to determine a good point for COVID, Flu and Pneumonia restrictions...and THEN quote the CDC back to me.

Dude. Give up your white whale mission of convincing anyone after this point. You are simply trolling.
I'm not trying to convince you of anything. Just showing you that your are either full of shit or drunk.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Gil Dobie »

AZGrizFan wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:15 pm
Gil Dobie wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 3:08 pm

Only 40% of people get the flu vaccine, how many die if everyone is vaccinated? The vaccine does not prevent the flu, it does help us get to herd immunity with less death.

Are your flu deaths from a peak year like 2017-2018? 2018-19 flu deaths were 34,200. With only 40% of people getting the flu vaccine,

Link
Year
2010-11, 37,000 deaths
2011-12, 12,000
2012-13, 43,000
2013-14, 38,000
2014-15, 51,000
2015-16, 23,000
2016-17, 38,000
2017-18, 61,000
2018-19, 34,000
2019-20, 22,000

Link
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza

Flu vaccine prevents millions of illnesses and flu-related doctor’s visits each year. For example, during 2018-2019, flu vaccination prevented an estimated 4.4 million influenza illnesses, 2.3 million influenza-associated medical visits, 58,000 influenza-associated hospitalizations, and 3,500 influenza-associated deaths.
Imagine if we’d been locking down and wearing masks all along. How many people could we have saved?
If everyone received flu vaccines, how many people would be saved? I didn't think you were in favor or lock downs?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

Gil Dobie wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:24 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:17 pm

Oh, hell no!

You didn't just shoot down my idea of using the CDC's recommendation of an epidemic threshold to determine a good point for COVID, Flu and Pneumonia restrictions...and THEN quote the CDC back to me.

Dude. Give up your white whale mission of convincing anyone after this point. You are simply trolling.
I'm not trying to convince you of anything. Just showing you that your are either full of shit or drunk.
Your post speaks for itself. I quoted the CDC as a good barometer of how to draw the line in regards to COVID and you replied that I didn't know what I was talking about, only to quote the same CDC.

Touch a nerve Nancy? Don't like being called out on your inattention?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Gil Dobie »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:35 pm
Gil Dobie wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:24 pm

I'm not trying to convince you of anything. Just showing you that your are either full of shit or drunk.
Your post speaks for itself. I quoted the CDC as a good barometer of how to draw the line in regards to COVID and you replied I didn't know what I was talking about, only to quote the same CDC.

Touch a nerve Nancy? Don't like being called out on your inattention?
You say there was 60,000 flu deaths in a year, I caught you cherry picking.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

Gil Dobie wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:36 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:35 pm

Your post speaks for itself. I quoted the CDC as a good barometer of how to draw the line in regards to COVID and you replied I didn't know what I was talking about, only to quote the same CDC.

Touch a nerve Nancy? Don't like being called out on your inattention?
You say there was 60,000 flu deaths in a year, I caught you cherry picking.
Read it again. I said Flu + Pneumonia, which I admitted both had vaccines for.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Gil Dobie »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:10 pm
Gil Dobie wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:36 pm

You say there was 60,000 flu deaths in a year, I caught you cherry picking.
Read it again. I said Flu + Pneumonia, which I admitted both had vaccines for.
...and everyone doesn't get the vaccine.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Gil Dobie wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:12 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:10 pm

Read it again. I said Flu + Pneumonia, which I admitted both had vaccines for.
...and everyone doesn't get the vaccine.
So what? Are you going to force everyone to get a vaccine? It's okay if we 100k in deaths, as long as everyone got the vaccine? That makes no sense.

This isn't about vaccines. This is about where do you draw the line in regards to deaths? The CDC has already determined the threshold and that is what I showed you.

Here is my original statement:
We do have vaccines, but you are going to have to pick a number because even with vaccines, there were still around 60K that died due to Flu and Pneumonia last year. The effectiveness of the vaccines varies from year to year, so that number could go much higher. Right now we have no clue how effective a COVID vaccine will be in preventing deaths.

This is why I keep referring to this chart. It lumps all three of them together and shows an epidemic threshold. That threshold is an actual number.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Gil Dobie »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:18 pm
Gil Dobie wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:12 pm

...and everyone doesn't get the vaccine.
So what? Are you going to force everyone to get a vaccine? It's okay if we 100k in deaths, as long as everyone got the vaccine? That makes no sense.

This isn't about vaccines. This is about where do you draw the line in regards to deaths? The CDC has already determined the threshold and that is what I showed you.

Here is my original statement:
We do have vaccines, but you are going to have to pick a number because even with vaccines, there were still around 60K that died due to Flu and Pneumonia last year. The effectiveness of the vaccines varies from year to year, so that number could go much higher. Right now we have no clue how effective a COVID vaccine will be in preventing deaths.

This is why I keep referring to this chart. It lumps all three of them together and shows an epidemic threshold. That threshold is an actual number.
The answer to the original question is, everyone doesn't get a vaccine. I understand how vaccines work from my college classes way back when. The ideal number is the lowest number. Trying to get the population of the USA to agree on something is like herding cats. I go to my Dr for medical advise and vaccines.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by AZGrizFan »

Gil Dobie wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:30 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:15 pm

Imagine if we’d been locking down and wearing masks all along. How many people could we have saved?
If everyone received flu vaccines, how many people would be saved? I didn't think you were in favor or lock downs?
Why not. Let’s mandate vaccines too. What the hell.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Gil Dobie »

AZGrizFan wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:11 pm
Gil Dobie wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:30 pm

If everyone received flu vaccines, how many people would be saved? I didn't think you were in favor or lock downs?
Why not. Let’s mandate vaccines too. What the hell.
Our numbers are going up again, I see a governors order again. Time to start buying TP again. :roll:
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

Gil Dobie wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:37 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:18 pm

So what? Are you going to force everyone to get a vaccine? It's okay if we 100k in deaths, as long as everyone got the vaccine? That makes no sense.

This isn't about vaccines. This is about where do you draw the line in regards to deaths? The CDC has already determined the threshold and that is what I showed you.

Here is my original statement:

The answer to the original question is, everyone doesn't get a vaccine. I understand how vaccines work from my college classes way back when. The ideal number is the lowest number. Trying to get the population of the USA to agree on something is like herding cats. I go to my Dr for medical advise and vaccines.
This must be what it’s like for Griz football fans being stuck between Fargo and Cheney the last decade.

:lol:
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

kalm wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:28 am
Gil Dobie wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:37 pm

The answer to the original question is, everyone doesn't get a vaccine. I understand how vaccines work from my college classes way back when. The ideal number is the lowest number. Trying to get the population of the USA to agree on something is like herding cats. I go to my Dr for medical advise and vaccines.
This must be what it’s like for Griz football fans being stuck between Fargo and Cheney the last decade.

:lol:
Not much changes on this board. :lol: :thumb:
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by HI54UNI »

Mich Gov. Whitmer adds new restrictions. I wonder how many customers there will be named Mike Hunt and their number is 8675309?


Restaurants, bars and other venues must seat no more than six people at a table. All dine-in establishments must keep customers’ names and phone numbers for contact-tracing purposes, starting Monday.

https://www.wzzm13.com/article/news/hea ... c7f32b4850
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by AZGrizFan »

HI54UNI wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:42 am Mich Gov. Whitmer adds new restrictions. I wonder how many customers there will be named Mike Hunt and their number is 8675309?


Restaurants, bars and other venues must seat no more than six people at a table. All dine-in establishments must keep customers’ names and phone numbers for contact-tracing purposes, starting Monday.

https://www.wzzm13.com/article/news/hea ... c7f32b4850
They can fuck right off.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:08 pm
HI54UNI wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:42 am Mich Gov. Whitmer adds new restrictions. I wonder how many customers there will be named Mike Hunt and their number is 8675309?


Restaurants, bars and other venues must seat no more than six people at a table. All dine-in establishments must keep customers’ names and phone numbers for contact-tracing purposes, starting Monday.

https://www.wzzm13.com/article/news/hea ... c7f32b4850
They can fuck right off.
Nothing new for Washingtonians.

Why are you angry about this? it’s what’s been predicted all along if we didn’t take it seriously enough. Even “freedom” loving states like yours have had to require restrictions at times when things get worse.

Pro tip: You might not line the next two months very much...regardless of politics.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

kalm wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:33 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:08 pm

They can fuck right off.
Nothing new for Washingtonians.

Why are you angry about this? it’s what’s been predicted all along if we didn’t take it seriously enough. Even “freedom” loving states like yours have had to require restrictions at times when things get worse.

Pro tip: You might not line the next two months very much...regardless of politics.
Since we see that COVID pretty much finds it's victims, is your hope a vaccine will save those that have been diligent enough to not get the virus?

I ask because I see it pretty much finding those susceptible. Not sure a vaccine will prevent infection, but hopefully will limit severity.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by AZGrizFan »

kalm wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:33 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:08 pm

They can fuck right off.
Nothing new for Washingtonians.

Why are you angry about this? it’s what’s been predicted all along if we didn’t take it seriously enough. Even “freedom” loving states like yours have had to require restrictions at times when things get worse.

Pro tip: You might not line the next two months very much...regardless of politics.
Pro”er” tip: America ain’t gonna stand for what you have in mind. Look at France, Spain, etc. See how people who are actually used to being controlled by their government are responding to strong arm tactics by their government in the name of “safety”. Hint: they aren’t.

If they try that shit here (regardless of politics) you will see a very, very large uprising. That’s what I believe.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

Bottom line: The current death counts we see of COVID-19 related deaths are undercounts. The true death toll is higher than the numbers we are seeing rather than lower. And it is a shame that being in the Trump cult demands being in denial of the severity of the problem.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:59 pm
kalm wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:33 pm

Nothing new for Washingtonians.

Why are you angry about this? it’s what’s been predicted all along if we didn’t take it seriously enough. Even “freedom” loving states like yours have had to require restrictions at times when things get worse.

Pro tip: You might not line the next two months very much...regardless of politics.
Pro”er” tip: America ain’t gonna stand for what you have in mind. Look at France, Spain, etc. See how people who are actually used to being controlled by their government are responding to strong arm tactics by their government in the name of “safety”. Hint: they aren’t.

If they try that shit here (regardless of politics) you will see a very, very large uprising. That’s what I believe.
What is it that you think I “have in mind”?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:42 pm Bottom line: The current death counts we see of COVID-19 related deaths are undercounts. The true death toll is higher than the numbers we are seeing rather than lower. And it is a shame that being in the Trump cult demands being in denial of the severity of the problem.
The CDC has recommended testing our deceased for COVID.

If anything, we are over counting.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:42 pm Bottom line: The current death counts we see of COVID-19 related deaths are undercounts. The true death toll is higher than the numbers we are seeing rather than lower. And it is a shame that being in the Trump cult demands being in denial of the severity of the problem.
Is that just “The word according to JSO”? Or is there some proof to that ridiculous statement?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by AZGrizFan »

kalm wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:59 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:59 pm

Pro”er” tip: America ain’t gonna stand for what you have in mind. Look at France, Spain, etc. See how people who are actually used to being controlled by their government are responding to strong arm tactics by their government in the name of “safety”. Hint: they aren’t.

If they try that shit here (regardless of politics) you will see a very, very large uprising. That’s what I believe.
What is it that you think I “have in mind”?
Well, I thought you were referring to longer, more stringent, extended shutdowns. Were you not?
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