Playoffs

[SuperHornet]

I'm surprised nobody's started a thread for this. Per last fall's edict, there will be 10 auto-bids for the 16-team tournament, which leaves out the Ivy League (they're not playing this spring), the MEAC (not enough games played, and it looks like they weren't going to be invited, anyway, though I'm not sure why), and the SWAC (by their own choice, as they're staging a televised league championship game 01 MAY). At this point, it's hard to figure out who's going to get the auto-bids, and who's going to get at-large selections. There will be some VERY hard choices for the Committee, and feelings are going to get hurt, particularly in my own league (which, as I'm seeing it, will be a one-bid league this year because of the 16-team limit).

Here's how I'm seeing it right now (with PLENTY of football left to be played, of course):

Auto-Bids:

Big Sky: Weber State (currently 2-0, 2-0)
Big South: Kennesaw State (currently 3-0, 1-0)
CAA: Delaware (currently 2-0, 2-0)
MVFC: NDSU (currently 5-1, 4-1)
NEC: Duquesne (currently 3-0, 3-0)
OVC: Murray State (currently 4-0, 4-0)
Patriot: Holy Cross (currently 1-0, 1-0)
Pioneer: San Diego (currently 2-0, 2-0)
Southern: VMI (currently 4-0, 4-0)
Southland: Incarnate Word (currently 3-0, 3-0)

At-Large Bids:

CAA: JMU (currently 3-0, 1-0)
MVFC: North Dakota (currently 4-1, 4-1), SD State (4-1, 4-1)
OVC: Jacksonville State (currently 7-1, 4-0)
Southern: TN-Chattanooga (3-1, 3-0)
Southland: Sam Houston State (3-0, 3-0)

The Patriot, in particular, is in danger of losing its auto-bid for want of games played. If that's the case, I suspect that Tarleton State, an independent, might well take that bid on the strength of their FBS win over New Mexico State (assuming, of course, that they're eligible this year; just look at what happened to Cal Baptist, undefeated regular season AND conference tournament champs in women's hoops but ineligible for the NCAAs because they're too recent a move-up).

Next Few Possibles:

Independent: Tarelton State (currently 4-2)
Big Sky: Eastern Washington (currently 2-1, 2-1) and UC Davis (currently 2-1, 2-1)
CAA North: Rhode Island (currently 2-0, 2-0 and Maine (currently 2-1, 2-1)
CAA South: Richmond (currently 2-0, 2-0)
Southern: Furman (3-2, 3-2) and E. TN State (currently 2-1, 2-1)
Southland: Nicholls State (currently 3-1, 2-1) and Stephen F. Austin (currently 6-4, 1-0)

Others with Good Records but Likely Out Anyway:

Big South: Gardner-Webb (currrently 2-0, 0-0) (Big South is traditionally a one-bid league.)
NEC: Bryant (currently 2-1, 2-1) and Sacred Heart (currently 2-1, 2-1) (NEC is traditionally a one-bid league.)
Patriot: Lafayette (currently 1-0, 1-0) (Patriot is traditionally a one-bid league, AND Lafayette likely won't have enough games to qualify.)
Pioneer: Davidson (currently 2-1, 2-0) (Pioneer is traditionally a one-bid league.)
SWAC: One of the two division leaders WOULD qualify for the playoffs IF they were taking part, but the others normally wouldn't even SNIFF an at-large bid. I think the championship game will be AR-Pine Bluff (currently 2-0, 2-0) vs. Jackson State (currently 3-1, 2-1), leaving Prairie View A&M (currently 2-0, 2-0) and Southern (currently 2-1, 2-1) technically available, but in most years, the SWAC would be a one-bid league, anyway. I don't think any SWAC teams will get an at-large this year, either.

In a NORMAL 24-team year, I'd include Tarleton (if eligible), EWU, UC Davis (though that pains me to the extreme), URI, SFA, Furman, and Nicholls. If Tarelton isn't eligible, then the next team for me would be Maine.

[89Hen]

Too early to speculate. Waste of time.

[SuperHornet]

Too early to speculate. Waste of time.

It's closer than you think, Hen. Per the NCAA, the playoffs are supposed to start mid-APR.

AND I have Delaware with the CAA auto-bid. I would have figured that you'd appreciate that.

[Gil Dobie]

Too early to speculate. Waste of time.

It's closer than you think, Hen. Per the NCAA, the playoffs are supposed to start mid-APR.

AND I have the Bidens with the CAA auto-bid. I would have figured that you'd appreciate that.

FIFY

[Gil Dobie]

The MEAC is also sending it's champion this spring.

[89Hen]

Too early to speculate. Waste of time.

It's closer than you think, Hen. Per the NCAA, the playoffs are supposed to start mid-APR.

AND I have Delaware with the CAA auto-bid. I would have figured that you'd appreciate that.

It's just not a good year to predict. You say there's a lot of football left to be played, but there may actually be not enough football played for some of these teams. Games are getting cancelled at alarming rates. JMU has had two games already pushed to other dates, they could end up with very few games. Hens/UNH was cancelled. What if JMU ends up 3-0 and other teams are 4-1?

[SuperHornet]

The MEAC is also sending it's champion this spring.

Per the original NCAA announcement last fall, that's not the case. And even if it were, I don't think they'll have enough games to qualify. Only three teams have games at all. SC State is the only school in MEAC North to play so far, and they are only 1-1. In MEAC South, Delaware State is 1-1, and Howard is 0-1. And all of THAT is OOC. I don't see how they can declare a "champion." Additionally, the MEAC announced 11 FEB that they were suspending the season, but permitting SC State, DE State, and Howard to play on their own. They haven't gone back on that yet that I can see on their website. (They ARE promoting the Delaware-Delaware State tilt on 10 APR, though, largely because it's to be broadcast on ESPN2.) The SWAC would have a better argument, but they're not using it....

[BDKJMU]

Too early to speculate. Waste of time.

It's closer than you think, Hen. Per the NCAA, the playoffs are supposed to start mid-APR.

AND I have Delaware with the CAA auto-bid. I would have figured that you'd appreciate that.

Wrong.
Late April.

[BDKJMU]

Too early to speculate. Waste of time.

Yep. Where the bulk of teams are playing, only 5 weeks in of 9 weeks. Still are teams from AQ conferences that have played only 1-2 games. No sense speculating for a couple more weeks..

[SuperHornet]

It's closer than you think, Hen. Per the NCAA, the playoffs are supposed to start mid-APR.

AND I have Delaware with the CAA auto-bid. I would have figured that you'd appreciate that.

It's just not a good year to predict. You say there's a lot of football left to be played, but there may actually be not enough football played for some of these teams. Games are getting cancelled at alarming rates. JMU has had two games already pushed to other dates, they could end up with very few games. Hens/UNH was cancelled. What if JMU ends up 3-0 and other teams are 4-1?

You do make a good point, Hen. That's what makes it so hard. But most of the cancellations (at least in terms of multiple cancellations for any single team) seem to be games involving the HBCUs, minus Jackson State and Southern. (But that's just a gut feeling from looking at game results, not from anything I've seen that's "official.") Per the NCAA's 14 FEB announcement, there's a four-game minimum. That MIGHT seem to give schools that played a fall schedule an advantage (a la SFA), but it MIGHT also work against them (a la Austin Peay, which has only recently gotten their acts together). Actually, that fall schedule might work against SFA as well because they have three FBS blowouts (and two relatively close FBS losses to UTEP and UTSA), and four D-II wins, some of which might not be seen as "big enough." Their only "peer" wins are against Abilene Christian and Eastern Kentucky. They don't have any spring games at al, so they might be out by default, though they have no announcement of such on record.

I think I now see your point on the "alarming rate" of cancellations. At first, I didn't think so, as most weeks this season, we've seen an average of four games cancelled. It seemed like this past week was an outlier with nine; we hadn't seen that many since Week 22, when there were seven. (There was only one game scheduled in week 21, a two-OT affair between McNeese and Tarleton.) While the cancellations seem to have hit EVERY conference, they seemed to be disproportionately hitting Southland and the HBCU schools. I'm not sure why. But that might be changing, as seven games have already been cancelled for THIS week, and they're across the conference spectrum. (Bucknell-Lehigh, Lafayette-Fordham, Kennesaw-Gardner-Webb, UNH-Villanova, DE State-Howard, and Holy Cross-Colgate on Saturday, and Prairie View-Jackson State on Sunday have already been cancelled.) You just might have a point there, too, Hen. That disturbs me. Games should be played. Period. Even if you have a short roster....

[BDKJMU]

It's closer than you think, Hen. Per the NCAA, the playoffs are supposed to start mid-APR.

AND I have Delaware with the CAA auto-bid. I would have figured that you'd appreciate that.

It's just not a good year to predict. You say there's a lot of football left to be played, but there may actually be not enough football played for some of these teams. Games are getting cancelled at alarming rates. JMU has had two games already pushed to other dates, they could end up with very few games. Hens/UNH was cancelled. What if JMU ends up 3-0 and other teams are 4-1?

UNH/VU cancelled.

As of now, if neither postponed game is made on on 4/17, and IF JMU won their last 3 games, JMU would be 6-0/4-0.
Right now I'm just worried about @ W&M with JMU likely out double digit # of players..

[Gil Dobie]

Auto-Bids:

Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Kennesaw State
CAA: JMU
MVFC: NDSU
NEC: Duquesne
OVC: Murray State
Patriot: Holy Cross
Pioneer: San Diego
Southern: VMI
Southland: Sam Houston

Possible At-Large Bids:

Big Sky: EWU and/or UCD
CAA: Delaware and/or Richmond
MVFC: North Dakota and/or SD State, with Missouri St
OVC: Jacksonville State
Southland: Nichols or UIW

[89Hen]

CAA: JMU

I can only assume you have the Hens losing to Nova?

[Gil Dobie]

CAA: JMU

I can only assume you have the Hens losing to Nova?

JMU is rated #1 in the STATS Poll as of today.

[SuperHornet]

I can only assume you have the Hens losing to Nova?

JMU is rated #1 in the STATS Poll as of today.

As of today? JMU has been #1 since the 01 MAR poll.

https://www.championshipsubdivision.com ... =4&t=52202

[Gil Dobie]

JMU is rated #1 in the STATS Poll as of today.

As of today? JMU has been #1 since the 01 MAR poll.

https://www.championshipsubdivision.com ... =4&t=52202

My playoff list was as of today, and does not include prognostication of future games.

[Gil Dobie]

Missouri State at UND is cancelled for this coming weekend.
SDSU at NDSU is still on for now.

[kalm]

Auto-Bids:

Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Kennesaw State
CAA: JMU
MVFC: NDSU
NEC: Duquesne
OVC: Murray State
Patriot: Holy Cross
Pioneer: San Diego
Southern: VMI
Southland: Sam Houston

Possible At-Large Bids:

Big Sky: EWU and/or UCD
CAA: Delaware and/or Richmond
MVFC: North Dakota and/or SD State, with Missouri St
OVC: Jacksonville State
Southland: Nichols or UIW

Idaho should be included.

Missouri State with 4 losses should be an AQ or nothing.

A two loss JSU even with the FBS win would be possibly dumping a one loss power 3.

[SuperHornet]

Missouri State at UND is cancelled for this coming weekend.
SDSU at NDSU is still on for now.

Is that COVID in the SW program? Or the Siouxsie Siouxs?

[89Hen]

JMU is rated #1 in the STATS Poll as of today.

Not to put the horse before the cart but If the Hens beat Albany and Nova, they'd be 5-0. JMU can only get to 4-0. Richmond can get to 5-0 if they play and win all their remaining games.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-con ... -bid-bzbz/

[89Hen]

My playoff list was as of today, and does not include prognostication of future games.

Delaware and Richmond are 3-0. JMU is 2-0.

[Gil Dobie]

My playoff list was as of today, and does not include prognostication of future games.

Delaware and Richmond are 3-0. JMU is 2-0.

Before you get BDK'd, JMU is 4-0

[Gil Dobie]

Missouri State at UND is cancelled for this coming weekend.
SDSU at NDSU is still on for now.

Is that COVID in the SW program? Or the Siouxsie Siouxs?

Sounds like a Bison player or coach tested positive, and it spread to UND. The NDSU-SDSU game is hour to hour per tests, could be postponed.

[89Hen]

Delaware and Richmond are 3-0. JMU is 2-0.

Before you get BDK'd, JMU is 4-0

Morehead and Robert Morris are now in the CAA?

[Gil Dobie]

Before you get BDK'd, JMU is 4-0

Morehead and Robert Morris are now in the CAA?

I get it now, talking AQ.