Senator Mel Martinez (R-FL) resigning

[dbackjon]

Sen. Mel Martinez, R-Florida, will announce that he is resigning his seat, three Republican sources have told CNN.

Earlier this year, Martinez said he would not run for re-election in 2010. Under Florida law covering a Senate resignation, Republican Gov. Charlie Crist will get to appoint a successor until the next general election. Crist himself is running for that seat.

www.cnn.com

[dbackjon]

Will be interesting to see who gets picked by Gov Crist, who is running for the open seat (Martinez was not running for reelection in 2010.


And why resign now, with a year left?

[D1B]

Will be interesting to see who gets picked by Gov Crist, who is running for the open seat (Martinez was not running for reelection in 2010.


And why resign now, with a year left?

My guess is someone found out he's fucking a 12 year old boy. Not a huge deal for the republicans except that the boy is an illegal alien, which has them super pissed.

[TwinTownBisonFan]

Martinez decided that Crist wasn't going to win the support of the GOP (he's running for the open seat) but rather the GOP would support some right-winger who would cost them the seat. by resigning he gives crist the opportunity to appoint a repub who will actually be able to defend the seat.

not a terribly bad strategic move imo

[houndawg]

Will be interesting to see who gets picked by Gov Crist, who is running for the open seat (Martinez was not running for reelection in 2010.


And why resign now, with a year left?

My guess is someone found out he's **** a 12 year old boy. Not a huge deal for the republicans except that the boy is an illegal alien, which has them super pissed.

Another Republican "turning over a new page".

[UNHWildCats]

Martinez decided that Crist wasn't going to win the support of the GOP (he's running for the open seat) but rather the GOP would support some right-winger who would cost them the seat. by resigning he gives crist the opportunity to appoint a repub who will actually be able to defend the seat.

not a terribly bad strategic move imo

And why would Crist appoint someone who would have a chance to beat him in the primary? Who ever he appoints, will be someone who wont be running next year.

[UNHWildCats]

Will be interesting to see who gets picked by Gov Crist, who is running for the open seat (Martinez was not running for reelection in 2010.


And why resign now, with a year left?

I made a thread elsewhere titled "Another Quitter: Florida Senator Martinez Walks Away From Job" and mod33 changed the title and took out another quitter... no idea why.... it wasnt a tos issue and it wasnt inaccurate

[TwinTownBisonFan]

Martinez decided that Crist wasn't going to win the support of the GOP (he's running for the open seat) but rather the GOP would support some right-winger who would cost them the seat. by resigning he gives crist the opportunity to appoint a repub who will actually be able to defend the seat.

not a terribly bad strategic move imo

And why would Crist appoint someone who would have a chance to beat him in the primary? Who ever he appoints, will be someone who wont be running next year.

because crist is likely to lose the primary to the Club for Growth candidate - my hunch is that more moderate factions in the Florida GOP are urging him to find someone who can get reelected and for charlie to give up his aspirations for the seat

[houndawg]

And why would Crist appoint someone who would have a chance to beat him in the primary? Who ever he appoints, will be someone who wont be running next year.

because crist is likely to lose the primary to the Club for Growth candidate - my hunch is that more moderate factions in the Florida GOP are urging him to find someone who can get reelected and for charlie to give up his aspirations for the seat

what a strange fuving liofe these people lead.

[TwinTownBisonFan]

because crist is likely to lose the primary to the Club for Growth candidate - my hunch is that more moderate factions in the Florida GOP are urging him to find someone who can get reelected and for charlie to give up his aspirations for the seat

what a strange fuving liofe these people lead.

I suppose it does look that way, no? for me, i think it's gotten to the point it gets to for mobster and gang members - where this shit is just everyday - so stop being surprised by it and adjust your thinking accordingly.

[JayJ79]

Charlie Crist just gets sick of living in his brother's shadow: J. H. Crist.

[TheDancinMonarch]

because crist is likely to lose the primary to the Club for Growth candidate - my hunch is that more moderate factions in the Florida GOP are urging him to find someone who can get reelected and for charlie to give up his aspirations for the seat

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1311


Not according to this most recent poll from 10 Jun 09.

Gov. Charlie Crist swamps former Florida House speaker Marco Rubio 54 - 23 percent in the 2010 Republican primary for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Mel Martinez, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

[native]

because crist is likely to lose the primary to the Club for Growth candidate - my hunch is that more moderate factions in the Florida GOP are urging him to find someone who can get reelected and for charlie to give up his aspirations for the seat

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1311


Not according to this most recent poll from 10 Jun 09.

Gov. Charlie Crist swamps former Florida House speaker Marco Rubio 54 - 23 percent in the 2010 Republican primary for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Mel Martinez, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Good data point, but too early. Doesn't mean anything yet.

[Col Hogan]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1311


Not according to this most recent poll from 10 Jun 09.

Good data point, but too early. Doesn't mean anything yet.

I disagree that is doesn't mean anything...if he was as far behind as he is ahead, that would be very telling...so being this far ahead is also telling...

[native]

Good data point, but too early. Doesn't mean anything yet.

I disagree that is doesn't mean anything...if he was as far behind as he is ahead, that would be very telling...so being this far ahead is also telling...

Crist is a popular governor with name recognition, so he SHOULD be at more than 50% at this point. And if the economy and unemployment are significantly improved by primary day, he probably will prevail.

However, wait until the Club for Growth and others weigh in on the issues over the airwaves. Underlying economic fundamentals have not yet been restored. Is the current stock market boomlet only a spike reminiscent of the one just prior to the onset of the Great Depression?

Issue ads, combined with continued poor economic performance and high unemployment will make anything possible.

[Col Hogan]

I disagree that is doesn't mean anything...if he was as far behind as he is ahead, that would be very telling...so being this far ahead is also telling...

Crist is a popular governor with name recognition, so he SHOULD be at more than 50% at this point. And if the economy and unemployment are significantly improved by primary day, he probably will prevail.

However, wait until the Club for Growth and others weigh in on the issues over the airwaves. Underlying economic fundamentals have not yet been restored. Is the current stock market boomlet only a spike reminiscent of the one just prior to the onset of the Great Depression?

Issue ads, combined with continued poor economic performance and high unemployment will make anything possible.

The key word is POPULAR...if he was just the gov, with the name recognition that comes with that office, your point would be extremely valid...

But being popular means people may hear what the Club for Growth (or any other group) says, then will measure it against their beliefs and move forward with a decision...

I'm not a Floridian, but if Crist is as popular as I understand he is, then I doubt you'll see enough of a change to invalidate this early poll...

On the other hand, some negative revelation could change everything...

[native]

Crist is a popular governor with name recognition, so he SHOULD be at more than 50% at this point. And if the economy and unemployment are significantly improved by primary day, he probably will prevail.

However, wait until the Club for Growth and others weigh in on the issues over the airwaves. Underlying economic fundamentals have not yet been restored. Is the current stock market boomlet only a spike reminiscent of the one just prior to the onset of the Great Depression?

Issue ads, combined with continued poor economic performance and high unemployment will make anything possible.

The key word is POPULAR...if he was just the gov, with the name recognition that comes with that office, your point would be extremely valid...

But being popular means people may hear what the Club for Growth (or any other group) says, then will measure it against their beliefs and move forward with a decision...

I'm not a Floridian, but if Crist is as popular as I understand he is, then I doubt you'll see enough of a change to invalidate this early poll...

On the other hand, some negative revelation could change everything...

Your points are well taken, Colonel.

In a normal election environment I would agree with you.

But the prevailing depth and breadth of economic uncertainty just before the election can change everything. The only question in my mind is whether the 2010 primary season and general elections will be held in a normal election environment.

[TwinTownBisonFan]

The key word is POPULAR...if he was just the gov, with the name recognition that comes with that office, your point would be extremely valid...

But being popular means people may hear what the Club for Growth (or any other group) says, then will measure it against their beliefs and move forward with a decision...

I'm not a Floridian, but if Crist is as popular as I understand he is, then I doubt you'll see enough of a change to invalidate this early poll...

On the other hand, some negative revelation could change everything...

Your points are well taken, Colonel.

In a normal election environment I would agree with you.

But the prevailing depth and breadth of economic uncertainty just before the election can change everything. The only question in my mind is whether the 2010 primary season and general elections will be held in a normal election environment.

Economics have very little to with Crist's predicament. While current polling shows him with a lead - and Col. you're right, in a General RE-ELECTION 54 would be a solid (if mildly unsettling) number. However, primaries are different.

Things working against Crist that tell me he'd be in trouble

1) a 'very popular' incumbent governor can only manage 54% among his own party this early... 54-26 tells me there is 20% undecided, read - GOPers who know Crist, but not Rubio, but are looking for an alternative

2) and this can't be understated... the rumor mill is going to be deadly... rumors that Crist is gay have dogged his career for years, and will be played up in a GOP primary - to deadly effect

3) Club for Growth recruited his opponent... they've got deep pockets and the support of economic conks

the cocktail of CforG and the anti-gay evangelicals is a potent one in a GOP primary... while Charlie could still pull it off, it would be a brutal fight that will leave the winner bruised and broke.

and after all of that - they will have to face the Dems rising star in Kendrick Meek

[native]

Your points are well taken, Colonel.

In a normal election environment I would agree with you.

But the prevailing depth and breadth of economic uncertainty just before the election can change everything. The only question in my mind is whether the 2010 primary season and general elections will be held in a normal election environment.

Economics have very little to with Crist's predicament. While current polling shows him with a lead - and Col. you're right, in a General RE-ELECTION 54 would be a solid (if mildly unsettling) number. However, primaries are different.

Things working against Crist that tell me he'd be in trouble

1) a 'very popular' incumbent governor can only manage 54% among his own party this early... 54-26 tells me there is 20% undecided, read - GOPers who know Crist, but not Rubio, but are looking for an alternative

2) and this can't be understated... the rumor mill is going to be deadly... rumors that Crist is gay have dogged his career for years, and will be played up in a GOP primary - to deadly effect

3) Club for Growth recruited his opponent... they've got deep pockets and the support of economic conks

the cocktail of CforG and the anti-gay evangelicals is a potent one in a GOP primary... while Charlie could still pull it off, it would be a brutal fight that will leave the winner bruised and broke.

and after all of that - they will have to face the Dems rising star in Kendrick Meek

Thanks for the professional insights, TT.

I beg to differ on one point: IF we are back to accelerating negative economic growth come election time, it will make a difference.

[Col Hogan]

When will whoever is appointed to replace Martinez have to face the electorate?

I'm assuming 2010...

[TwinTownBisonFan]

When will whoever is appointed to replace Martinez have to face the electorate?

I'm assuming 2010...

yeah - the seat is up in Nov. of 2010. However, even if the seat were up in 2012, the replacement would have to defend the seat in 2010 (the next federal election) this is what is happening to Gillibrand in NY for Clinton's seat. she will then have to run again in 2012 for a full 6 year term.