2022 Elections Thread

[Ibanez]

We all know anecdotal examples of highly educated and disciplined idiots as well as low educated - high common sense and/or IQ types. It’s sort of an argument over nature vs nurture. An example would be the low (formal) educated who sucked at school and test taking but went on through self education, observation skills, and experience to become “learned” and brilliant regardless.

Where we seem to fall short is appreciating wisdom, grace, and the role selfishness plays.

I’m 100 pages into Dostoevsky’s “The Idiot”. It’s already leading strongly into this very discussion.

I bet it reads like your own memoir....

[kalm]

We all know anecdotal examples of highly educated and disciplined idiots as well as low educated - high common sense and/or IQ types. It’s sort of an argument over nature vs nurture. An example would be the low (formal) educated who sucked at school and test taking but went on through self education, observation skills, and experience to become “learned” and brilliant regardless.

Where we seem to fall short is appreciating wisdom, grace, and the role selfishness plays.

I’m 100 pages into Dostoevsky’s “The Idiot”. It’s already leading strongly into this very discussion.

With age comes wisdom. Unfortunately some people never grow up.

Wisdom is also knowing when to use a soft word to admonish somebody or when to use a hammer to beat it into their thick skulls.

Truth. Especially the wisdom that comes with emotional maturity. That’s astoundingly lacking in a bunch of people old enough to know better.

At that point, they’re just assholes.

I’m pointing fingers in both directions.

[kalm]

We all know anecdotal examples of highly educated and disciplined idiots as well as low educated - high common sense and/or IQ types. It’s sort of an argument over nature vs nurture. An example would be the low (formal) educated who sucked at school and test taking but went on through self education, observation skills, and experience to become “learned” and brilliant regardless.

Where we seem to fall short is appreciating wisdom, grace, and the role selfishness plays.

I’m 100 pages into Dostoevsky’s “The Idiot”. It’s already leading strongly into this very discussion.

I bet it reads like your own memoir....

Oh boy.

“And who’s the fool who wears the crown?”

[UNI88]

With age comes wisdom. Unfortunately some people never grow up.

Wisdom is also knowing when to use a soft word to admonish somebody or when to use a hammer to beat it into their thick skulls.

Truth. Especially the wisdom that comes with emotional maturity. That’s astoundingly lacking in a bunch of people old enough to know better.

At that point, they’re just assholes.

I’m pointing fingers in both directions.

Good that you finally realize it ...

[UNI88]

We all know anecdotal examples of highly educated and disciplined idiots as well as low educated - high common sense and/or IQ types. It’s sort of an argument over nature vs nurture. An example would be the low (formal) educated who sucked at school and test taking but went on through self education, observation skills, and experience to become “learned” and brilliant regardless.

Where we seem to fall short is appreciating wisdom, grace, and the role selfishness plays.

I’m 100 pages into Dostoevsky’s “The Idiot”. It’s already leading strongly into this very discussion.

With age comes wisdom. Unfortunately some people never grow up.

Wisdom is also knowing when to use a soft word to admonish somebody or when to use a hammer to beat it into their thick skulls.

I have to grow old. I don't have to grow up and you and your hammer can't make me.

[kalm]

Truth. Especially the wisdom that comes with emotional maturity. That’s astoundingly lacking in a bunch of people old enough to know better.

At that point, they’re just assholes.

I’m pointing fingers in both directions.

Good that you finally realize it ...

To wit…emotional maturity.

[kalm]

With age comes wisdom. Unfortunately some people never grow up.

Wisdom is also knowing when to use a soft word to admonish somebody or when to use a hammer to beat it into their thick skulls.

I have to grow old. I don't have to grow up and you and your hammer can't make me.

You will submit, comrade!

[Ibanez]

I have to grow old. I don't have to grow up and you and your hammer can't make me.

You will submit, comrade!

Youse will not replace us! Youse will not replace!

[Winterborn]

With age comes wisdom. Unfortunately some people never grow up.

Wisdom is also knowing when to use a soft word to admonish somebody or when to use a hammer to beat it into their thick skulls.

Truth. Especially the wisdom that comes with emotional maturity. That’s astoundingly lacking in a bunch of people old enough to know better.

At that point, they’re just assholes.

I’m pointing fingers in both directions.

Same.

Now if everybody understood I am always right, the world would be a better place.

[Winterborn]

With age comes wisdom. Unfortunately some people never grow up.

Wisdom is also knowing when to use a soft word to admonish somebody or when to use a hammer to beat it into their thick skulls.

I have to grow old. I don't have to grow up and you and your hammer can't make me.

The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut.

That said, I try to be some where in the middle.

[houndawg]

We all know anecdotal examples of highly educated and disciplined idiots as well as low educated - high common sense and/or IQ types. It’s sort of an argument over nature vs nurture. An example would be the low (formal) educated who sucked at school and test taking but went on through self education, observation skills, and experience to become “learned” and brilliant regardless.

Where we seem to fall short is appreciating wisdom, grace, and the role selfishness plays.

I’m 100 pages into Dostoevsky’s “The Idiot”. It’s already leading strongly into this very discussion.

You can tell by their FB page where it says "self-employed" and educated at "the school of hard knocks".

[JohnStOnge]

I could take the bait and respond to that with respect to my own being "smart" as opposed to being "intelligent." But that is not what we are talking about here. We are talking about the fact that a very solid majority of people with graduate degrees vote Democrat.

So the latest poll I referenced had respondents whose educational attainment level is High school or less saying they favor Republicans over Democrats in the next election by 41% to 37%. It has people with graduate degrees saying they will vote for Democrats over Republicans by 55% to 31%.

Is that because people with graduate degrees are smart but not intelligent?

Your insistence that swaths of educated people voting Dem is some kind of determinant is fallacious logi

What do you mean by "determinant?" If you mean that I think being more informed and having a better understanding of things makes people more likely to vote for Democrats so that being more informed and having a better understanding of things are determinants in that sense, you are correct. Also i think intelligence is a factor in being more informed and having a better understanding of things.

I also think that if we could identify people with an IQ of 120 or more (roughly the top 10 percent) during exit polling we'd see a Democrat edge very among them similar to the one we see among people with graduate degrees. But you can't tell. We do know that people with graduate degrees tend to vote by a solid margin for Democrats and we know that there is a strong association between IQ and educational attainment. But we couldn't know for sure if you'd see what i'd expect unless we actually polled some people and could get their IQ scores. Not going to happen.

Nevertheless, though I know it's painful for people who like Republicans and/or don't like Democrats to deal with, all indications are that a solid majority of the most intelligent, educated, and informed among us consistently vote by a solid margin for Democrats. We all know that if it were the other way around people who like Republicans and/or don't like Democrats would be pointing to it as evidence that smart people vote Republican. But since it's not they are left to try to explain it away.

[AZGrizFan]

Your insistence that swaths of educated people voting Dem is some kind of determinant is fallacious logi

What do you mean by "determinant?" If you mean that I think being more informed and having a better understanding of things makes people more likely to vote for Democrats so that being more informed and having a better understanding of things are determinants in that sense, you are correct. Also i think intelligence is a factor in being more informed and having a better understanding of things.

I also think that if we could identify people with an IQ of 120 or more (roughly the top 10 percent) during exit polling we'd see a Democrat edge very among them similar to the one we see among people with graduate degrees. But you can't tell. We do know that people with graduate degrees tend to vote by a solid margin for Democrats and we know that there is a strong association between IQ and educational attainment. But we couldn't know for sure if you'd see what i'd expect unless we actually polled some people and could get their IQ scores. Not going to happen.

Nevertheless, though I know it's painful for people who like Republicans and/or don't like Democrats to deal with, all indications are that a solid majority of the most intelligent, educated, and informed among us consistently vote by a solid margin for Democrats. We all know that if it were the other way around people who like Republicans and/or don't like Democrats would be pointing to it as evidence that smart people vote Republican. But since it's not they are left to try to explain it away.

you continue to conflate intelligence with education. Being "educated" <> they are necessarily "more informed" nor have a "better understanding". In fact many many times its quite the opposite. Having (or not having) a college degree is by no means a measure of a person's intelligence. By your logic, Bill Gates isn't very smart. Nor is Mark Zuckerberg. But I gotta give you credit...when you start digging a hole, you're gonna just keep digging all the way to China!

[UNI88]

What do you mean by "determinant?" If you mean that I think being more informed and having a better understanding of things makes people more likely to vote for Democrats so that being more informed and having a better understanding of things are determinants in that sense, you are correct. Also i think intelligence is a factor in being more informed and having a better understanding of things.

I also think that if we could identify people with an IQ of 120 or more (roughly the top 10 percent) during exit polling we'd see a Democrat edge very among them similar to the one we see among people with graduate degrees. But you can't tell. We do know that people with graduate degrees tend to vote by a solid margin for Democrats and we know that there is a strong association between IQ and educational attainment. But we couldn't know for sure if you'd see what i'd expect unless we actually polled some people and could get their IQ scores. Not going to happen.

Nevertheless, though I know it's painful for people who like Republicans and/or don't like Democrats to deal with, all indications are that a solid majority of the most intelligent, educated, and informed among us consistently vote by a solid margin for Democrats. We all know that if it were the other way around people who like Republicans and/or don't like Democrats would be pointing to it as evidence that smart people vote Republican. But since it's not they are left to try to explain it away.

you continue to conflate intelligence with education. Being "educated" <> they are necessarily "more informed" nor have a "better understanding". In fact many many times its quite the opposite. Having (or not having) a college degree is by no means a measure of a person's intelligence. By your logic, Bill Gates isn't very smart. Nor is Mark Zuckerberg. But I gotta give you credit...when you start digging a hole, you're gonna just keep digging all the way to China!

JSO is in orbit above China now. I didn't realize that you could dig through air.

[houndawg]

I bet it reads like your own memoir....

Oh boy.

“And who’s the fool who wears the crown?”

from the best song on their best album

[Winterborn]

Author makes some interesting points about the Hispanic polling/voting trend for 2022 into 2024. Appears that the progressives and illiberals are doing what they do best in conducting a purity campaign and driving people away.

Hope the trend continues (along with Democrats continuing self-indulgence of the scolds) and I will be cheering them on.

Across the CNN, Fox and Quinnipiac polls this year, the President’s net approval rating averages +2 points with Hispanic Americans. That’s 17 points better than his net approval rating with voters overall in these polls (-15 points).

In the 2020 election, Biden’s margin with Hispanic voters was about 23 points better than it was overall.

So compared with 2020, Biden is doing worse with Hispanics relative to how he is doing with voters overall. That’s notable given that earlier in his presidency, Biden was doing significantly better among Hispanics relative to how he was doing overall and compared with how he did in 2020.

So Biden was +23 with Hispanics in 2020 and now he’s +17. That’s still a win but it’s also a 6 point drop in favorability from an election year where there was already widespread concern among Democrats about Hispanics moving to the right.

Ultimately, the concern isn’t that Democrats will do slightly worse in 2022 than they did in 2020. Democrats already appear doomed this year so a small shift among Hispanics is just a drop in the bucket. The real concern is that this shift is just getting started. If we get to 2024 and there has been another five or six point shift toward the GOP from where we are now, Democrats are going to struggle to compete in a lot of places they’d once assumed they could count on.

And there’s another nightmare that could unfold for Democrats on top of that. If the largest minority group in America stops voting overwhelmingly for Democrats, will other minority groups start to loosen support for the party? Last week Thomas Edsall wrote a column for the NY Times about Asian Americans and their willingness to buck the party on a few issues, particularly crime and school admissions.

https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2022/03/07/ ... ng-n453591

[AZGrizFan]

Author makes some interesting points about the Hispanic polling/voting trend for 2022 into 2024. Appears that the progressives and illiberals are doing what they do best in conducting a purity campaign and driving people away.

Hope the trend continues (along with Democrats continuing self-indulgence of the scolds) and I will be cheering them on.

Across the CNN, Fox and Quinnipiac polls this year, the President’s net approval rating averages +2 points with Hispanic Americans. That’s 17 points better than his net approval rating with voters overall in these polls (-15 points).

In the 2020 election, Biden’s margin with Hispanic voters was about 23 points better than it was overall.

So compared with 2020, Biden is doing worse with Hispanics relative to how he is doing with voters overall. That’s notable given that earlier in his presidency, Biden was doing significantly better among Hispanics relative to how he was doing overall and compared with how he did in 2020.

So Biden was +23 with Hispanics in 2020 and now he’s +17. That’s still a win but it’s also a 6 point drop in favorability from an election year where there was already widespread concern among Democrats about Hispanics moving to the right.

Ultimately, the concern isn’t that Democrats will do slightly worse in 2022 than they did in 2020. Democrats already appear doomed this year so a small shift among Hispanics is just a drop in the bucket. The real concern is that this shift is just getting started. If we get to 2024 and there has been another five or six point shift toward the GOP from where we are now, Democrats are going to struggle to compete in a lot of places they’d once assumed they could count on.

And there’s another nightmare that could unfold for Democrats on top of that. If the largest minority group in America stops voting overwhelmingly for Democrats, will other minority groups start to loosen support for the party? Last week Thomas Edsall wrote a column for the NY Times about Asian Americans and their willingness to buck the party on a few issues, particularly crime and school admissions.

https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2022/03/07/ ... ng-n453591

Expect a 10,000 word post from JSO that can be summed up in two words: Polling error.

[Ibanez]

Author makes some interesting points about the Hispanic polling/voting trend for 2022 into 2024. Appears that the progressives and illiberals are doing what they do best in conducting a purity campaign and driving people away.

Hope the trend continues (along with Democrats continuing self-indulgence of the scolds) and I will be cheering them on.



https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2022/03/07/ ... ng-n453591

Expect a 10,000 word post from JSO that can be summed up in two words: Polling error.

I'm expecting something like this, Actually, if you review the poll data, consider the standard deviation and only include those that have graduate degrees and an IQ range of 135-140, eliminate anyone that's not white or a property owner, you'll find this to be a very flawed argument.

[AZGrizFan]

Expect a 10,000 word post from JSO that can be summed up in two words: Polling error.

I'm expecting something like this, Actually, if you review the poll data, consider the standard deviation and only include those that have graduate degrees and an IQ range of 135-140, eliminate anyone that's not white or a property owner, you'll find this to be a very flawed argument.

Except spread over 10,000 words.

[SeattleGriz]

Been interesting to see Kari Lake running in Arizona. When I lived down there, she was a news anchor on the local Fox station. Needless to say, the person she represents herself to be on the campaign is not the same person I watched on TV...and maybe that just me pointing out the difference in her being paid by someone and the other, running for office. Anyway, odd to see. She's been MAGA-fied!!

[Ibanez]

Your insistence that swaths of educated people voting Dem is some kind of determinant is fallacious logi

What do you mean by "determinant?" If you mean that I think being more informed and having a better understanding of things makes people more likely to vote for Democrats so that being more informed and having a better understanding of things are determinants in that sense, you are correct. Also i think intelligence is a factor in being more informed and having a better understanding of things.

I also think that if we could identify people with an IQ of 120 or more (roughly the top 10 percent) during exit polling we'd see a Democrat edge very among them similar to the one we see among people with graduate degrees. But you can't tell. We do know that people with graduate degrees tend to vote by a solid margin for Democrats and we know that there is a strong association between IQ and educational attainment. But we couldn't know for sure if you'd see what i'd expect unless we actually polled some people and could get their IQ scores. Not going to happen.

Nevertheless, though I know it's painful for people who like Republicans and/or don't like Democrats to deal with, all indications are that a solid majority of the most intelligent, educated, and informed among us consistently vote by a solid margin for Democrats. We all know that if it were the other way around people who like Republicans and/or don't like Democrats would be pointing to it as evidence that smart people vote Republican. But since it's not they are left to try to explain it away.

If you don't understand the word " determinant," then you should not be voting.

[JohnStOnge]

Guys, I allowed that there are exceptions to the rule. I even specifically cited Bill Gates and Steve Jobs.

But there is no doubt that there is a strong correlation between educational attainment and IQ. There is no doubt that there is a strong correlation between educational attainment and income. The fact that one can find exceptions doesn't change the overall trend.

Seriously. Do you really have any doubt about what would happen if you were to design a test of how informed people are and gave it to a random sample of people with graduate degrees and to a random sample of people who did not attend college? Do you REALLY doubt that the people with graduate degrees would score higher on average...by a significant degree...on such a test?

C'mon. You guys who are arguing against me on this point are not being realistic.

[JohnStOnge]

See a pattern here?

https://www.bls.gov/emp/chart-unemploym ... cation.htm

Just stop with the populist crap. The reality is what it is.

[AZGrizFan]

Guys, I allowed that there are exceptions to the rule. I even specifically cited Bill Gates and Steve Jobs.

But there is no doubt that there is a strong correlation between educational attainment and IQ. There is no doubt that there is a strong correlation between educational attainment and income. The fact that one can find exceptions doesn't change the overall trend.

Seriously. Do you really have any doubt about what would happen if you were to design a test of how informed people are and gave it to a random sample of people with graduate degrees and to a random sample of people who did not attend college? Do you REALLY doubt that the people with graduate degrees would score higher on average...by a significant degree...on such a test?

C'mon. You guys who are arguing against me on this point are not being realistic.

Quit changing the argument, FFS. Nobody is arguing that higher education = higher income, for the most part. Although there’s lots of doctors of philosophy stocking grocery store shelves, I’m sure. The argument is “does education level = intelligence”? And I’ve seen reams and reams of anecdotal evidence to suggest that in a large percentage of cases it absolutely does not. In fact, once could use the educated idiots voting for Biden/Harris as exhibit A for my argument. They may be “educated”, but they certainly have proven they’re not “informed” or “intelligent”.

[JohnStOnge]

What do you mean by "determinant?" If you mean that I think being more informed and having a better understanding of things makes people more likely to vote for Democrats so that being more informed and having a better understanding of things are determinants in that sense, you are correct. Also i think intelligence is a factor in being more informed and having a better understanding of things.

I also think that if we could identify people with an IQ of 120 or more (roughly the top 10 percent) during exit polling we'd see a Democrat edge very among them similar to the one we see among people with graduate degrees. But you can't tell. We do know that people with graduate degrees tend to vote by a solid margin for Democrats and we know that there is a strong association between IQ and educational attainment. But we couldn't know for sure if you'd see what i'd expect unless we actually polled some people and could get their IQ scores. Not going to happen.

Nevertheless, though I know it's painful for people who like Republicans and/or don't like Democrats to deal with, all indications are that a solid majority of the most intelligent, educated, and informed among us consistently vote by a solid margin for Democrats. We all know that if it were the other way around people who like Republicans and/or don't like Democrats would be pointing to it as evidence that smart people vote Republican. But since it's not they are left to try to explain it away.

If you don't understand the word " determinant," then you should not be voting.

I understand what "determinant" means. There are two ways of looking at it. If something is absolutely determinant, that means A means B in every case. If something is probablisticly determinant, that means that in any given case A is likely to mean B.

When you talk about being more informed, no, person A being more informed than person B does not mean person A will vote Democrat as opposed to voting Republican in every case. But i think it does mean that, in each randomly selected case, person A being more informed than person B means person A is more likely to vote Democrat as opposed to voting Republican.

The bottom line proposition is that being more informed makes it more likely that a randomly selected person is more likely to vote Democrat as opposed to voting Republican. And, actually, it's pretty obvious. I just happen to be on a board where a number of people are in denial about that.