The Ukraine Crisis

[SDHornet]

Oh.

[CID1990]

That was my original point.

I think Putin may see a real opportunity to significantly damage NATO without actually being in military conflict with NATO, either than Moldova or Romania. It’s a long shot, but I’d give it 10:1 odds and that is a very uncomfortable probability


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Moldova is a member of NATO?

Nope, they are neutral. I keep thinking about Montenegro and that idiot President who signed off on them being in NATO. Assuming that Russia doesn’t lose the war in Ukraine outright possible), Putin may seek to widen the conflict and the natural
target would be Moldova. They arent in NATO but it would further stretch the alliance


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[UNI88]

Lots, otherwise we would have seen real condemnation over the Uyghurs, no?

Well I know they provide lots of products, and lots of cheap products, but is there anything THEY provide we can’t get somewhere else? Or here at home, albeit at a more expensive price?

I believe the rare earths they mine are key components in cell phones, computers, automobiles, etc. Can we live without them? Yes. Are there a lot of people that think they're essential? Yes.

[SDHornet]

[Pwns]

Meanwhile in Saudi Arabia, looks like with the gas crunch Mohammed Bin Salman is in "I can whatever the fvck I want with no consequences" mode.

[Skjellyfetti]

Moldova is a member of NATO?

Nope, they are neutral. I keep thinking about Montenegro and that idiot President who signed off on them being in NATO. Assuming that Russia doesn’t lose the war in Ukraine outright possible), Putin may seek to widen the conflict and the natural
target would be Moldova. They arent in NATO but it would further stretch the alliance

Russia has had troops in Transnistria since before Putin. I wouldn't be surprised if they were initially planning to lock it down by sweeping up from Odessa. Probably rethinking that now to bring more troops to Kyiv. Russian troops in the south seem to be heading north to Kyiv and not west to Odessa and Moldova so far. If they were greeted as liberators in Ukraine and the invasion went smoothly, the Moldova scenario would have been more likely.

And, IMO, Russia moving on Moldova stretches Russia more than it does NATO.

[houndawg]

So we were a net exporter for one year and you're blaming Biden for the fact that we weren't a net energy exporter during his first year in office? Seriously?

No, I’m blaming Biden for policies and actions that have made us not a net exporter anymore. Like shutting down a pipeline. Stopping drilling. Shutting down leases. Etc., etc.

Bullshit. They can drill anytime they want to drill.

[BDKJMU]

No, I’m blaming Biden for policies and actions that have made us not a net exporter anymore. Like shutting down a pipeline. Stopping drilling. Shutting down leases. Etc., etc.

Bullshit. They can drill anytime they want to drill.

But not anywhere the oil actually is.

[houndawg]

Well I know they provide lots of products, and lots of cheap products, but is there anything THEY provide we can’t get somewhere else? Or here at home, albeit at a more expensive price?

I believe the rare earths they mine are key components incell phones, computers, automobiles, etc. Can we live without them? Yes. Are there a lot of people that think they're essential? Yes.

jet engines

[houndawg]

Bullshit. They can drill anytime they want to drill.

But not anywhere the oil actually is.

Nobody is keeping them from drilling but the market

[houndawg]

So we were a net exporter for one year and you're blaming Biden for the fact that we weren't a net energy exporter during his first year in office? Seriously?

No, I’m blaming Biden for policies and actions that have made us not a net exporter anymore. Like shutting down a pipeline. Stopping drilling. Shutting down leases. Etc., etc.

war? pandemic?

[BDKJMU]

But not anywhere the oil actually is.

Nobody is keeping them from drilling but the market

Wrong. There’s areas of the country with oil they are allowed to drill in.

[houndawg]

Nobody is keeping them from drilling but the market

Wrong. There’s areas of the country with oil they are allowed to drill in.

profits are at an all-time high.

[CID1990]

Nope, they are neutral. I keep thinking about Montenegro and that idiot President who signed off on them being in NATO. Assuming that Russia doesn’t lose the war in Ukraine outright possible), Putin may seek to widen the conflict and the natural
target would be Moldova. They arent in NATO but it would further stretch the alliance

Russia has had troops in Transnistria since before Putin. I wouldn't be surprised if they were initially planning to lock it down by sweeping up from Odessa. Probably rethinking that now to bring more troops to Kyiv. Russian troops in the south seem to be heading north to Kyiv and not west to Odessa and Moldova so far. If they were greeted as liberators in Ukraine and the invasion went smoothly, the Moldova scenario would have been more likely.

And, IMO, Russia moving on Moldova stretches Russia more than it does NATO.

True, but not if they twist Belarus. They don’t need to advance in Ukraine. In fact, they aren’t stupid… they know they can’t advance in Ukraine without using tac nukes.

I literally called Clitz the other night and told him that he was right about Russia- a failed petro state with a rusting hulk of a military. The only thing that makes them relevant is the nukes.

And what a shame. What a beautiful culture and people… we should be allied with them against China but we shit the bed from 89-92 and now here we are.


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[Ibanez]

We were not producing 1.5 million billion barrels per day - that's a stupid fucking number.

Yeah, that sentence was all jacked up. What I meant to say was:

End of 19’/beginning of 20’, before the pandemic hit, we were producing about 1.5 million barrels per day more than right now. And we’re post pandemic now

.

I figured, lol. We all make mistakes.

We’re still producing more, on avg, than during Trumps admin. If gas was cheap in 2017 when we produced less per day than today, then logically we should still have low prices.

And revoking a permit for a pipeline that wasn’t operational doesn’t have an immediate effect on our gas prices. We didn’t cut off access to an existing supply. Keystone XL wasn’t operational so I truly do not understand how one can logically say gas prices are up, in part, because a pipeline for tar sands oil wasn’t built.

Inflation, demand and other economic factors have much more weight than a proposed pipeline. I don’t buy into the sound bites.


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[Ibanez]

It still doesn't change the basic fact that Production under the Biden Administration, since 2021, is above the first 2 years of Trump and isn't far off from 2020.

Tell me you don't understand oil prices without telling me you don't understand oil prices.

I’m willing to change my opinion. Tell me how avg production suddenly made prices skyrocket. Its more than domestic production - that’s my point. Are you saying inflation and other global factors play ZERO role?


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[Ibanez]

That's a stupid mistake on my part. It still doesn't change the basic fact that Production under the Biden Administration, since 2021, is above the first 2 years of Trump and isn't far off from 2020. And btw, production peaked in late 2019, not 2020. You average it out, we aren't really producing that much less. We are producing approximately 2% less than we did in the Trumps final 2 years. 2% less is really what's making the cost of gas skyrocket?

Avg daily barrel production
2017 - 9,355.75
2018 - 10,936.75
2019 - 12,286.25
2020 - 11,289.08
2021 - 11,174.50

And in the first two years of Trump’s administration we weren’t energy independent. Not sure what you’re trying to prove here? By Trump’s third year we were a net energy exporter. We never were before, and we haven’t been since Biden took over.

We were a net producer in his final year, 2020. 1 year out of 3. We’re producing more now than we did for 50% of his term.


My point- ignore the Fox News talking points and look at the data. Average production is not the reason for higher prices. And neither is the revocation of a pipeline building permit. There wasn’t anything flowing through XL. There wasn’t any supply going through it. That was a jobs bill.


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[Ibanez]

So we were a net exporter for one year and you're blaming Biden for the fact that we weren't a net energy exporter during his first year in office? Seriously?

No, I’m blaming Biden for policies and actions that have made us not a net exporter anymore. Like shutting down a pipeline. Stopping drilling. Shutting down leases. Etc., etc.

He shut down pipeline CONSTRUCTION. His EO was overturned like 5 months later.

There are something like 9000 approved drilling permits , many from Trump, that are still valid. But that’s just one phase of actually drilling.

WASHINGTON— New federal data shows the Biden administration approved 3,557 permits for oil and gas drilling on public lands in its first year, far outpacing the Trump administration’s first-year total of 2,658.

Nearly 2,000 of the drilling permits were approved on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management’s New Mexico office, followed by 843 in Wyoming, 285 in Montana and North Dakota, and 191 in Utah. In California, the Biden administration approved 187 permits — more than twice the 71 drilling permits Trump approved in that state in his first year.

“Biden’s runaway drilling approvals are a spectacular failure of climate leadership,” said Taylor McKinnon at the Center for Biological Diversity. “Avoiding catastrophic climate change requires ending new fossil fuel extraction, but Biden is racing in the opposite direction.”


https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases as/new-data-biden-slays-trumps-first-year-drilling-permitting-by-34-2022-01-21/


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[AZGrizFan]

No, I’m blaming Biden for policies and actions that have made us not a net exporter anymore. Like shutting down a pipeline. Stopping drilling. Shutting down leases. Etc., etc.

war? pandemic?

We weren’t a net exporter well before the war.

[AZGrizFan]

No, I’m blaming Biden for policies and actions that have made us not a net exporter anymore. Like shutting down a pipeline. Stopping drilling. Shutting down leases. Etc., etc.

He shut down pipeline CONSTRUCTION. His EO was overturned like 5 months later.

There are something like 9000 approved drilling permits , many from Trump, that are still valid. But that’s just one phase of actually drilling.

WASHINGTON— New federal data shows the Biden administration approved 3,557 permits for oil and gas drilling on public lands in its first year, far outpacing the Trump administration’s first-year total of 2,658.

Nearly 2,000 of the drilling permits were approved on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management’s New Mexico office, followed by 843 in Wyoming, 285 in Montana and North Dakota, and 191 in Utah. In California, the Biden administration approved 187 permits — more than twice the 71 drilling permits Trump approved in that state in his first year.

“Biden’s runaway drilling approvals are a spectacular failure of climate leadership,” said Taylor McKinnon at the Center for Biological Diversity. “Avoiding catastrophic climate change requires ending new fossil fuel extraction, but Biden is racing in the opposite direction.”


https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases as/new-data-biden-slays-trumps-first-year-drilling-permitting-by-34-2022-01-21/


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But is there actually OIL in those places? Easy to give out leases when you know they’ll never be used.

[SDHornet]

[SDHornet]

Good ole' Romney pushing for WWIII. What a shitbag.

[SDHornet]

[HI54UNI]

Yeah, that sentence was all jacked up. What I meant to say was:
.

And revoking a permit for a pipeline that wasn’t operational doesn’t have an immediate effect on our gas prices. We didn’t cut off access to an existing supply. Keystone XL wasn’t operational so I truly do not understand how one can logically say gas prices are up, in part, because a pipeline for tar sands oil wasn’t built.


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The problem with cancelling the pipeline is the decision impacts companies' decisions to make investments. All the money spent to date is gone, wasted. Companies look at decisions by the Biden admin and aren't going to make investments when they know it is either a dead end or could be gone with the next decision by Biden. The lack of planned future investment is being priced into the oil market.

[SDHornet]

Oh.