The Ukraine Crisis

[BDKJMU]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/e ... ttle-devil

[kalm]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/e ... ttle-devil

Every alt rightie beta in America just got a boner.

[Ibanez]

If production, as you seem to imply, is the only factor, prices today would be lower than that were in 2017 and 2018. They aren't - why is that if supply is the only factor?

What's has happened to the demand for oil? The buying power of the dollar? There is so much more than just supply that factors in.

As I said.... Oil is a commodity. It moves up and down based on predicted future prices. Slowing production raises the price.

Even if the US increased slightly, production is not keeping up with an ever increasing demand. It's like getting a 3% raise when inflation is 7.9%.

I'm open to learning something and amending my position- has produced been slowed? If output is any indicator, I don't believe so.

[Ibanez]

Operative word there is "average". On average, 10966.95 millions of barrels a day were produced from 2017-2020 compare that with an average of 11,174.50 in 2021.

Btw, forecasts are showing that production will increase by 12 million barrels a day in 2022.

You aren't looking at the whole problem wrt soaring gas prices.

That would mean production would go up to over 23 million barrells per day..You mean will increase to 12 million barrels per day?

Wake me up when it gets to upper 12s/13 ballpark, what we had in the later half of 2019/early 2020 before the China Virus hit full bore..

That was like 2-3 months in late 2019, why does that matter overall?

[Ibanez]

I have, you just aren't paying attention or reading. You are trying to take a random point in time in 4 years and use it as a benchmark. I'm at least taking all the data.

We can stick with their first year - where US production in 2017 was less than it was in 2021.

Just ignore inconvenient data and facts like a good conk.

I’m not taking a random point in time. Look at the TREND during Trump’s presidency. You want to average in the first 18 months when production was ramping up coming out of an unfriendly donk administration that hamstrung the industry for 8 years.

Point being: we have never hit those numbers again, and we’re 1,000,000 per month short as we speak.

Looking at the trend, we took a dip and are on track to continue increasing.

If it weren’t for COVID and the states shutting down, production would still be climbing. We’re pulling ourselves out of unnecessarily long shutdowns and mandates which I’m sure affected the oil labor force like it has everyone else. Is that Bidens fault? It’s probably more so the individual states that house the rigs and refineries (blue state vs red state). Though, I’m open to seeing a valid, active Biden policy and it’s effects. Lord knows he’s not perfect

[SeattleGriz]

With the talk of tactical nukes. Here is NukeMap. Pick your spot and yield. Wouldn't doubt the NSA created this site!

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

Klam beat you to it posting that.

That's morbid he brought it up so quickly.

[kalm]

Klam beat you to it posting that.

That's morbid he brought it up so quickly.

It’s been around for 10 years you dork

[SeattleGriz]

That's morbid he brought it up so quickly.

It’s been around for 10 years you dork

No, in the his discussion.

[kalm]

It’s been around for 10 years you dork

No, in the his discussion.

Who’s discussion?

Good gawd man. Get a grip.

[SeattleGriz]

No, in the his discussion.

Who’s discussion?

Good gawd man. Get a grip.

I'm kidding. Was blaming you for posting the nuke site before me.

[BDKJMU]

That would mean production would go up to over 23 million barrells per day..You mean will increase to 12 million barrels per day?

Wake me up when it gets to upper 12s/13 ballpark, what we had in the later half of 2019/early 2020 before the China Virus hit full bore..

That was like 2-3 months in late 2019, why does that matter overall?

More like 8 months in 2019/early 2020..

[BDKJMU]

I just heard this. Apparently last week the Biden admin held a briefing on Ukraine for 30 ‘Tik Tok stars’. WTF WTF is a ‘Tik Tok star?’ Who care what people on Tik Tok think. They should be worried about far more important things than this Tiky Toky site. We are truly fucked..

[SDHornet]

Meh. We've turned our heads on all kinds of killings when we are the ones doing it, not really buying all the hype about the killing in Ukraine.

Again, all the angst from the political elite is that their money laundering schemes in Ukraine are going to dry up when Putin finally wrestles control from Ukraine away from the West. Pretty sure I read that one of Romney's kids has one of those sweetheart deals like Hunter does over there.

At this point all I care about is US troops not being sent in. For those that have read up on the End Times, you know how this war is going to end.

I haven’t read up on the end times. How is this war going to end?

Jesus wins.

But before that, Gog and Magog (Russia and China) run roughshod for a bit. Always wondered how those two would become intertwined, but we are seeing it in real time as the economic/social/cultural isolation will push Russia(ns) towards the Chicoms.

[SDHornet]

Meh. We've turned our heads on all kinds of killings when we are the ones doing it, not really buying all the hype about the killing in Ukraine.

Again, all the angst from the political elite is that their money laundering schemes in Ukraine are going to dry up when Putin finally wrestles control from Ukraine away from the West. Pretty sure I read that one of Romney's kids has one of those sweetheart deals like Hunter does over there.

At this point all I care about is US troops not being sent in. For those that have read up on the End Times, you know how this war is going to end.

Yeah, most major German and Jap cities we leveled in WWII.

Gotta love the WWII takes, especially how the whole "it was the Nazis that were fighting Stalin" thing is glossed over in this Ukrainian war. Was more thinking modern nation building attempts, especially the failed ones in Afghanistan, Libya, and the failed regime change in Syria to name a few. Something is going on in Yemen too but I haven't dug too far into that debacle that our Saudi "allies" are doing.

[SDHornet]

Meh. We've turned our heads on all kinds of killings when we are the ones doing it, not really buying all the hype about the killing in Ukraine.

Again, all the angst from the political elite is that their money laundering schemes in Ukraine are going to dry up when Putin finally wrestles control from Ukraine away from the West. Pretty sure I read that one of Romney's kids has one of those sweetheart deals like Hunter does over there.

At this point all I care about is US troops not being sent in. For those that have read up on the End Times, you know how this war is going to end.

Trut so pure, BUT, there is a difference, to the surviviors any way, between collateral damage and deliberatly targeting civilian dwelling with air and artillery. That shit is right up there with trump pardonning that scumbag navy dude that knifed bound 15 year old captives

What does Trump have to do with this? Russia didn't invade anyone under his watch. Ask yourself why that is.

[SDHornet]

I just heard this. Apparently last week the Biden admin held a briefing on Ukraine for 30 ‘Tik Tok stars’. WTF WTF is a ‘Tik Tok star?’ Who care what people on Tik Tok think. They should be worried about far more important things than this Tiky Toky site. We are truly fucked..

It's just the WH organizing its propaganda wing. The state used to rely on the legacy media for their propaganda, now they rely on "influencers" to spread the propaganda.

[SDHornet]

I would laugh but this isn't satire.

[SDHornet]

This war is going embarrassingly bad for Putin. On paper, Russia should have blown through Ukraine and its defenses with ease. The shock and awe of their blitzkrieg was supposed to have brought on a quick victory. But 3 weeks later there are 1000s of dead Russians, including many generals, they've had logistical problems from the beginning, troop morale is in the pits, the Russian people are voicing their opposition, sanctions have destroyed the Russian economy, a vast majority of the industrialized worlds has joined the side of the Ukraine and they're ever increasing the likelihood of a bitter and embarrassing acquiesce to Ukraine.

I truly believe Putin is feeling more and more backed into a corner. I don't see the man having the courage to cease hostilities and retreat so that leaves 2 options:
1) Start another World War and unleash the nukes
or;
2) Suicide


I may be a bit dramatic but I was called dramatic for saying the Russians would eventually invade Ukraine.

"Poorly"? Eh, you may need to expand your sources a bit to put the "Ukraine is winning" propaganda in perspective. Saw someone comparing the early stages of the Ukraine invasion to ours on Iraq the 2nd time. Basically in the first week (may have been 72 hours, don't recall) Russia covered about the same thrust as the US did on the Iraqis from a straight KMs reached metric. It took us months to take Fallujah so settle in, the shit is just getting started.

Now we didn't hit the logistic issues Russia has right now (at least it wasn't widely publicized if we did) but the Russians have done quite a bit. Ukraine gets credit for holding onto Kyiv (for now) and being competent enough to blow most of the bridges that cross the Dnieper (a sign the Uks have no intention of reclaiming eastern territory anytime soon). They are also getting some some work in with their Turkish drones.

On the other side a large chunk of their forces are about the be encircled in the Donbas, Russia has cut off Ukraine from the sea with the exception of Odessa, there is an eastern prong making a move to encircle Kyiv, the Russians have capture/taken control of some significant transportation hubs in the east, and the bombardments from Russia are intensifying.

I'm by no means cheering for Russia, but we have to be honest about the situation over there. Ukraine is toast without western intervention (No Fly Zone, boots on the ground, etc) and to be honest I have no idea why we should get our troops in harms way for a country we don't have a treaty with.

[CID1990]

Romney isn’t wrong

We really should be trying to think about how to whip their Russian asses back to Moscow. His position is righteous

But the position that we should not precipitate WWIII is also righteous. Romney is no more a shitbag than Reagan was when he challenged the Soviet Union on all fronts- the unified Dem talking point during those days was “don’t piss off the Russians it might cause war! “

Yet again Dems and Republicans have flipflopped


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Meh. We've turned our heads on all kinds of killings when we are the ones doing it, not really buying all the hype about the killing in Ukraine.

Again, all the angst from the political elite is that their money laundering schemes in Ukraine are going to dry up when Putin finally wrestles control from Ukraine away from the West. Pretty sure I read that one of Romney's kids has one of those sweetheart deals like Hunter does over there.

At this point all I care about is US troops not being sent in. For those that have read up on the End Times, you know how this war is going to end.

Cmon man

Of course we have

But the question really is -

What vision of the world do basic human beings think should prevail?

Russia’s? China? Iran’s?

I’ll take our deeply flawed system and ways over literally anything else the world has to offer. Every democracy in existence today exists because it either took the US’s example, or was directly supported by the US.

And our version of it is messy. That’s why autocracies are so seductive… because they Re the epitome of order. I have never felt so safe as an American living in a Communist dictatorship. The average Joe on the street has resigned himself to going along… and he’ll be left alone and “free”

So yeah… America has broken a lot of eggs since 1941. And am sure we will continue to do so. But just remember that there is a difference between clumsy benevolence and sphere if influence expansionism


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[SDHornet]

Meh. We've turned our heads on all kinds of killings when we are the ones doing it, not really buying all the hype about the killing in Ukraine.

Again, all the angst from the political elite is that their money laundering schemes in Ukraine are going to dry up when Putin finally wrestles control from Ukraine away from the West. Pretty sure I read that one of Romney's kids has one of those sweetheart deals like Hunter does over there.

At this point all I care about is US troops not being sent in. For those that have read up on the End Times, you know how this war is going to end.

Cmon man

Of course we have

But the question really is -

What vision of the world do basic human beings think should prevail?

Russia’s? China? Iran’s?

I’ll take our deeply flawed system and ways over literally anything else the world has to offer. Every democracy in existence today exists because it either took the US’s example, or was directly supported by the US.

And our version of it is messy. That’s why autocracies are so seductive… because they Re the epitome of order. I have never felt so safe as an American living in a Communist dictatorship. The average Joe on the street has resigned himself to going along… and he’ll be left alone and “free”

So yeah… America has broken a lot of eggs since 1941. And am sure we will continue to do so. But just remember that there is a difference between clumsy benevolence and sphere if influence expansionism


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Oh I agree with you, but I think the experiment of trying to get every place to be like us has run its course (and broke the bank). And now we need to focus on getting our own house in order before we hop around the world implementing "democracy". Securing the border would go a lot farther than trying to install some kind of democracy in these places.

And anyone just touting the "I just want to be left alone" has had their head in the sand the past decade or so.

[CID1990]

Cmon man

Of course we have

But the question really is -

What vision of the world do basic human beings think should prevail?

Russia’s? China? Iran’s?

I’ll take our deeply flawed system and ways over literally anything else the world has to offer. Every democracy in existence today exists because it either took the US’s example, or was directly supported by the US.

And our version of it is messy. That’s why autocracies are so seductive… because they Re the epitome of order. I have never felt so safe as an American living in a Communist dictatorship. The average Joe on the street has resigned himself to going along… and he’ll be left alone and “free”

So yeah… America has broken a lot of eggs since 1941. And am sure we will continue to do so. But just remember that there is a difference between clumsy benevolence and sphere if influence expansionism


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Oh I agree with you, but I think the experiment of trying to get every place to be like us has run its course (and broke the bank). And now we need to focus on getting our own house in order before we hop around the world implementing "democracy". Securing the border would go a lot farther than trying to install some kind of democracy in these places.

And anyone just touting the "I just want to be left alone" has had their head in the sand the past decade or so.

We don’t have to get everybody to agree with us or our particular form of government

All we need to do is get our friends and adversaries to agree that when every citizen has skin in the game - whether that citizen is US or Russian or Kyrgyz or Thai or East Timorean…. that we all, us men on the street, always will tend toward peace and not being incinerated because some autocrat gets his panties in a wad.

It really isnt that much of a heavy lift. We just need to package it better and stop being distracted by squirrels


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[AZGrizFan]

Oh I agree with you, but I think the experiment of trying to get every place to be like us has run its course (and broke the bank). And now we need to focus on getting our own house in order before we hop around the world implementing "democracy". Securing the border would go a lot farther than trying to install some kind of democracy in these places.

And anyone just touting the "I just want to be left alone" has had their head in the sand the past decade or so.

We don’t have to get everybody to agree with us or our particular form of government

All we need to do is get our friends and adversaries to agree that when every citizen has skin in the game - whether that citizen is US or Russian or Kyrgyz or Thai or East Timorean…. that we all, us men on the street, always will tend toward peace and not being incinerated because some autocrat gets his panties in a wad.

It really isnt that much of a heavy lift. We just need to package it better and stop being distracted by squirrels


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Good luck with that.

[SeattleGriz]

Three former British soldiers killed. Suppose we'll hear of US contractors killed too?

[SDHornet]

Three former British soldiers killed. Suppose we'll hear of US contractors killed too?

Sounds like whoever was at that foreign legion base during the missile strike was turned into ether.

[BDKJMU]

This war is going embarrassingly bad for Putin. On paper, Russia should have blown through Ukraine and its defenses with ease. The shock and awe of their blitzkrieg was supposed to have brought on a quick victory. But 3 weeks later there are 1000s of dead Russians, including many generals, they've had logistical problems from the beginning, troop morale is in the pits, the Russian people are voicing their opposition, sanctions have destroyed the Russian economy, a vast majority of the industrialized worlds has joined the side of the Ukraine and they're ever increasing the likelihood of a bitter and embarrassing acquiesce to Ukraine.

I truly believe Putin is feeling more and more backed into a corner. I don't see the man having the courage to cease hostilities and retreat so that leaves 2 options:
1) Start another World War and unleash the nukes
or;
2) Suicide


I may be a bit dramatic but I was called dramatic for saying the Russians would eventually invade Ukraine.

"Poorly"? Eh, you may need to expand your sources a bit to put the "Ukraine is winning" propaganda in perspective. Saw someone comparing the early stages of the Ukraine invasion to ours on Iraq the 2nd time. Basically in the first week (may have been 72 hours, don't recall) Russia covered about the same thrust as the US did on the Iraqis from a straight KMs reached metric. It took us months to take Fallujah so settle in, the shit is just getting started.

Now we didn't hit the logistic issues Russia has right now (at least it wasn't widely publicized if we did) but the Russians have done quite a bit. Ukraine gets credit for holding onto Kyiv (for now) and being competent enough to blow most of the bridges that cross the Dnieper (a sign the Uks have no intention of reclaiming eastern territory anytime soon). They are also getting some some work in with their Turkish drones.

On the other side a large chunk of their forces are about the be encircled in the Donbas, Russia has cut off Ukraine from the sea with the exception of Odessa, there is an eastern prong making a move to encircle Kyiv, the Russians have capture/taken control of some significant transportation hubs in the east, and the bombardments from Russia are intensifying.

I'm by no means cheering for Russia, but we have to be honest about the situation over there. Ukraine is toast without western intervention (No Fly Zone, boots on the ground, etc) and to be honest I have no idea why we should get our troops in harms way for a country we don't have a treaty with.

We’re on day 20 of the Russian invasion. Looking at the invasion of Iraq, took our forces 20 days from the onset of the ground war to take Baghdad (March 20-April 9), and the distance of Baghdad is A LOT further from the Kuwait and Saudi borders than Kviv is from Belarus. The Iraqis actually had far superior #s in ground forces. Course they were far inferior in quality, and the US had air surpremeacy.

Looking at another famous Blitzkrieg, the Germans took 5 weeks to capture Paris (6 1/2 weeks to defeat France). They had roughly equal numbers of personell as the French & Brits, and about double the air craft. But the French/Brits had about 2x the artillery, and more than 50% more tanks. Doesn’t look like the Russians are going to be taking Kiev by the 5 week mark.

The Russians have far superior #s (esp artillery, tanks, APCs), and air supremacy. Kiev is only what, 40? some miles to the Belarus Border. After 3 weeks the Russians aren’t close to taking it. Seems the Russians ‘should’ be doing a lot better than they have been. It certainly seems all the ‘experts’ expected them to be, and the Russians themselves. Its certainly no ‘blitzkrieg’. Seems more like a replay of the Soviet/Finnish Winter War late 1939/early 1940.