Biden’s Scorecard

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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

Post by kalm »

Here’s a big fucking F for ya…

“Last week, the Biden administration quietly reaffirmed its decision to enact the highest Medicare premium hikes in history right before this year’s midterm elections. At the same time, President Joe Biden is endorsing a plan to funnel significantly more Medicare money to insurance companies and further privatize the government insurance program for older Americans and those with disabilities.

In effect, the higher premium increases will subsidize the larger payments to — and profits for — private insurance corporations. This comes after Biden raked in roughly $47 million from health care industry executives during his 2020 campaign………”

https://www.levernews.com/biden-hikes-m ... -insurers/
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

Post by JohnStOnge »

You know how you see people say "do your own research?" Most of the time they are not talking about doing their own research. Most of the time they are people who don't want to believe what mainstream information sources tell them so they find some not-so-reliable sources that tell them what they want to hear and call that doing their own research.

An example of doing your own research is doing something like going to the site at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... ashx?n=PET... and checking on US monthly crude oil production to see if the claim that Joe Biden cut US crude oil production is true.

It's not. You can just look at the table and see that crude oil production has generally risen since he took office. You can also do statistical tests and see that there is a "statistically significant" upward trend.

The truth is that US crude oil production had a big dip early in the COVID-19 thing. Since bottoming out in the dip in May, 2020, US crude oil production has been generally rising. And there was no significant change in the trend when Biden took office.

That's what you see if you actually DO do your own research.
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Fri Jun 03, 2022 5:51 pm You know how you see people say "do your own research?" Most of the time they are not talking about doing their own research. Most of the time they are people who don't want to believe what mainstream information sources tell them so they find some not-so-reliable sources that tell them what they want to hear and call that doing their own research.

An example of doing your own research is doing something like going to the site at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... ashx?n=PET... and checking on US monthly crude oil production to see if the claim that Joe Biden cut US crude oil production is true.

It's not. You can just look at the table and see that crude oil production has generally risen since he took office. You can also do statistical tests and see that there is a "statistically significant" upward trend.

The truth is that US crude oil production had a big dip early in the COVID-19 thing. Since bottoming out in the dip in May, 2020, US crude oil production has been generally rising. And there was no significant change in the trend when Biden took office.

That's what you see if you actually DO do your own research.
At the end of 2020 crude oil production was over 13,000,000 barrels a day. And we were energy independent for the first time in decades. Yes, production dropped precipitously at the beginning of covid, down below 10,000,000 barrels a day, but then began climbing again (Trump was still president). It dropped precipitously AGAIN in early 2021 (right after Brandon’s inauguration and got even lower than it did at the beginning COVID, by the way), and then generally began slowly increasing. But REALITY is that under Brandon, crude oil production peaked in November at less than 12,000,000 barrels and has come down EVERY. SINGLE. MONTH. Since then. And even when increasing, the RATE of increase under Biden hasn’t even come close to under the last two years of the Trump administration. And production has never come CLOSE to where Trump’s administration had it prior to the “pandemic” being orchestrated by the left. :coffee: :coffee:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... production

Themes the facts, Jack. I do this shit for a living. :nod: :nod:

Bonus points: Click on the 10 year graph and it REALLY shows the difference between a donk and a conk president strategy. :nod: :nod:
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

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AZGrizFan wrote: Fri Jun 03, 2022 6:40 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Fri Jun 03, 2022 5:51 pm You know how you see people say "do your own research?" Most of the time they are not talking about doing their own research. Most of the time they are people who don't want to believe what mainstream information sources tell them so they find some not-so-reliable sources that tell them what they want to hear and call that doing their own research.

An example of doing your own research is doing something like going to the site at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... ashx?n=PET... and checking on US monthly crude oil production to see if the claim that Joe Biden cut US crude oil production is true.

It's not. You can just look at the table and see that crude oil production has generally risen since he took office. You can also do statistical tests and see that there is a "statistically significant" upward trend.

The truth is that US crude oil production had a big dip early in the COVID-19 thing. Since bottoming out in the dip in May, 2020, US crude oil production has been generally rising. And there was no significant change in the trend when Biden took office.

That's what you see if you actually DO do your own research.
At the end of 2020 crude oil production was over 13,000,000 barrels a day. And we were energy independent for the first time in decades. Yes, production dropped precipitously at the beginning of covid, down below 10,000,000 barrels a day, but then began climbing again (Trump was still president). It dropped precipitously AGAIN in early 2021 (right after Brandon’s inauguration and got even lower than it did at the beginning COVID, by the way), and then generally began slowly increasing. But REALITY is that under Brandon, crude oil production peaked in November at less than 12,000,000 barrels and has come down EVERY. SINGLE. MONTH. Since then. And even when increasing, the RATE of increase under Biden hasn’t even come close to under the last two years of the Trump administration. And production has never come CLOSE to where Trump’s administration had it prior to the “pandemic” being orchestrated by the left. :coffee: :coffee:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... production

Themes the facts, Jack. I do this shit for a living. :nod: :nod:
Dude, the rate of increase did not change significantly after Biden took office. It just didn't. There was one month of dramatic decline right when Biden took office. I think it is reasonable to say there isn't a whole lot Biden could have done to cause production to drop in February, 2021 when he took office on January 21. Maybe you can say people in industry were anticipating something. But, in any case, the overall trend has been towards continuing increase.

The bottom line is that crude oil production has not generally decreased since Biden took office. It has increased.
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Fri Jun 03, 2022 6:49 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Fri Jun 03, 2022 6:40 pm

At the end of 2020 crude oil production was over 13,000,000 barrels a day. And we were energy independent for the first time in decades. Yes, production dropped precipitously at the beginning of covid, down below 10,000,000 barrels a day, but then began climbing again (Trump was still president). It dropped precipitously AGAIN in early 2021 (right after Brandon’s inauguration and got even lower than it did at the beginning COVID, by the way), and then generally began slowly increasing. But REALITY is that under Brandon, crude oil production peaked in November at less than 12,000,000 barrels and has come down EVERY. SINGLE. MONTH. Since then. And even when increasing, the RATE of increase under Biden hasn’t even come close to under the last two years of the Trump administration. And production has never come CLOSE to where Trump’s administration had it prior to the “pandemic” being orchestrated by the left. :coffee: :coffee:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... production

Themes the facts, Jack. I do this shit for a living. :nod: :nod:
Dude, the rate of increase did not change significantly after Biden took office. It just didn't. There was one month of dramatic decline right when Biden took office. I think it is reasonable to say there isn't a whole lot Biden could have done to cause production to drop in February, 2021 when he took office on January 21. Maybe you can say people in industry were anticipating something. But, in any case, the overall trend has been towards continuing increase.

The bottom line is that crude oil production has not generally decreased since Biden took office. It has increased.
If you can’t see the difference in the slope during Trump’s tenure and Brandon’s tenure, I can’t help you any further. I can’t help the blind see.
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

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AZGrizFan wrote: Fri Jun 03, 2022 6:40 pm
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... production

Themes the facts, Jack. I do this shit for a living. :nod: :nod:

Bonus points: Click on the 10 year graph and it REALLY shows the difference between a donk and a conk president strategy. :nod: :nod:
Why would I click the 10 year graph on the link you provided when the site you linked is referencing the Energy Information Administration and the page I linked is an Energy Information Administration page that has a graph of oil production going back to 1920 at the top of it? Also the table goes back to 1920.

What is shows is that we started having an upward trend in production around 2011. Production increased sharply from there until there was a dip that started in in early 2015 and continued through mid 2016. Then there was another upward trend through late 2019. There isn't any indication, at all, that there was some kind of association with whether a Democrat or a Republican was President except that the general upward trend over the past decade or so started while Obama was President.

But I think we can all agree that the reason we had the upsurge has to do with advances in extraction technology and not who was President at the time.
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote: Fri Jun 03, 2022 6:52 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Fri Jun 03, 2022 6:49 pm

Dude, the rate of increase did not change significantly after Biden took office. It just didn't. There was one month of dramatic decline right when Biden took office. I think it is reasonable to say there isn't a whole lot Biden could have done to cause production to drop in February, 2021 when he took office on January 21. Maybe you can say people in industry were anticipating something. But, in any case, the overall trend has been towards continuing increase.

The bottom line is that crude oil production has not generally decreased since Biden took office. It has increased.
If you can’t see the difference in the slope during Trump’s tenure and Brandon’s tenure, I can’t help you any further. I can’t help the blind see.
I'm sure there is a difference between the slope during Trump pre COVID and Biden. But what I'm talking about is the slope post COVID. There was a drop during early 2020. Then it started going back up while Trump was still President. That's the slope I'm looking at. The slope in place during Trump after the C'OVID associated drop is not significantly different from the slope during Biden.

BTW, for some reason the site you referenced has numbers that do not exactly match the numbers on the Energy Information Site they are referencing. I don't know why that is. Maybe it has to do with some data being provisional. The site you mention is also has data through February while the Energy Information Administration page I linked has it through March. March had the second highest production since the COVID dip.

Speaking of slopes, there was a very steep slope during Obama from mid 2011 through early 2015.

Here's the thing: There are people saying Biden cut US crude oil production. That is an objectively false assertion. US crude oil production has generally increased since he took office. That's not debatable. It's another example of the "conservative" side out and out lying.
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

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JohnStOnge wrote: Fri Jun 03, 2022 7:25 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Fri Jun 03, 2022 6:52 pm

If you can’t see the difference in the slope during Trump’s tenure and Brandon’s tenure, I can’t help you any further. I can’t help the blind see.
I'm sure there is a difference between the slope during Trump pre COVID and Biden. But what I'm talking about is the slope post COVID. There was a drop during early 2020. Then it started going back up while Trump was still President. That's the slope I'm looking at. The slope in place during Trump after the C'OVID associated drop is not significantly different from the slope during Biden.

BTW, for some reason the site you referenced has numbers that do not exactly match the numbers on the Energy Information Site they are referencing. I don't know why that is. Maybe it has to do with some data being provisional. The site you mention is also has data through February while the Energy Information Administration page I linked has it through March. March had the second highest production since the COVID dip.

Speaking of slopes, there was a very steep slope during Obama from mid 2011 through early 2015.

Here's the thing: There are people saying Biden cut US crude oil production. That is an objectively false assertion. US crude oil production has generally increased since he took office. That's not debatable. It's another example of the "conservative" side out and out lying.
And yet it’s still over 2,000,000 barrels a day below peak production. And it’s decreased for 5 consecutive months between November and March. That’s not a “generally increasing trend”…

Btw, your link didn’t work.
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

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Also 5 major refineries closed 2021. Biden’s election campaign rhetoric, 1st week EO’s, and actions since have played a major part in that.
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

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BDKJMU wrote:Also 5 major refineries closed 2021. Biden’s election campaign rhetoric, 1st week EO’s, and actions since have played a major part in that.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/oi ... t-the-pump
We’ve posted about those refineries- they were closing down regardless of who was at 1600 Penn.


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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

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Ibanez wrote: Sat Jun 04, 2022 5:51 am
BDKJMU wrote:Also 5 major refineries closed 2021. Biden’s election campaign rhetoric, 1st week EO’s, and actions since have played a major part in that.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/oi ... t-the-pump
We’ve posted about those refineries- they were closing down regardless of who was at 1600 Penn.


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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

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AZGrizFan wrote: Fri Jun 03, 2022 7:38 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Fri Jun 03, 2022 7:25 pm

I'm sure there is a difference between the slope during Trump pre COVID and Biden. But what I'm talking about is the slope post COVID. There was a drop during early 2020. Then it started going back up while Trump was still President. That's the slope I'm looking at. The slope in place during Trump after the C'OVID associated drop is not significantly different from the slope during Biden.

BTW, for some reason the site you referenced has numbers that do not exactly match the numbers on the Energy Information Site they are referencing. I don't know why that is. Maybe it has to do with some data being provisional. The site you mention is also has data through February while the Energy Information Administration page I linked has it through March. March had the second highest production since the COVID dip.

Speaking of slopes, there was a very steep slope during Obama from mid 2011 through early 2015.

Here's the thing: There are people saying Biden cut US crude oil production. That is an objectively false assertion. US crude oil production has generally increased since he took office. That's not debatable. It's another example of the "conservative" side out and out lying.
And yet it’s still over 2,000,000 barrels a day below peak production. And it’s decreased for 5 consecutive months between November and March. That’s not a “generally increasing trend”…

Btw, your link didn’t work.
I'll try posting the link again: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... RFPUS2&f=M

Production did not decline for five consecutive months according to the numbers there. It reached its highest point since the May, 2020 post-COVID bottom in November. Then it declined during December, January, and February. Then it increased in March to reach its second highest point since the post-COVID low. Below is a graph of monthly production starting with the month before Biden's first full month in office (January 2021) through March, 2022 with a line of best fit. You can see the dip during his first full month in office but the general trend is clearly upward. The slope of the line is "significantly" greater than 0 so there's sufficient evidence to conclude that it's not just random variation.

US crude oil production has not decreased since Biden took office. Saying that is has is making an objectively and demonstrably false statement. And "conservatives" do it all the time.

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Last edited by JohnStOnge on Sat Jun 04, 2022 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

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Another thing: I see "conservatives" saying all the time that we were energy independent under Trump in 2020 then weren't any more under Biden. Here is a discussion of that with examples: https://www.reuters.com/article/factche ... SL2N2VQ2ZV.

However, as far as I can tell, the reason many said we were/are energy independent is that our annual petroleum exports came to exceed our annual petroleum imports. That happened in 2020. But it happened again in 2021. See https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil ... xports.php. So, no, we did not gain energy independence under Trump then lose it under Biden. At least not through 2021. We'll see what happens with 2022 but I doubt that we'll lose it if the current trend in production continues.

So, again, "conservatives' are spreading falsehoods.

You people can believe it or not but I am a conservative. However, what is generally called the "conservative" movement nowadays is overflowing with dishonesty. It operates by spewing a constant torrent of misinformation. And I believe that is inconsistent with what conservatism should be.
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

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JohnStOnge wrote: Sat Jun 04, 2022 8:17 am Another thing: I see "conservatives" saying all the time that we were energy independent under Trump in 2020 then weren't any more under Biden. Here is a discussion of that with examples: https://www.reuters.com/article/factche ... SL2N2VQ2ZV.

However, as far as I can tell, the reason many said we were/are energy independent is that our annual petroleum exports came to exceed our annual petroleum imports. That happened in 2020. But it happened again in 2021. See https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil ... xports.php. So, no, we did not gain energy independence under Trump then lose it under Biden. At least not through 2021. We'll see what happens with 2022 but I doubt that we'll lose it if the current trend in production continues.

So, again, "conservatives' are spreading falsehoods.

You people can believe it or not but I am a conservative. However, what is generally called the "conservative" movement nowadays is overflowing with dishonesty. It operates by spewing a constant torrent of misinformation. And I believe that is inconsistent with what conservatism should be.
2017. 9,109 9,168 9,103 9,184 9,110 9,246 9,245 9,516 9,659 10,077 9,979
2018 9,996 10,276 10,461 10,493 10,424 10,628 10,888 11,373 11,422 11,488 11,868 11,924
2019 11,848 11,653 11,899 12,125 12,141 12,179 11,896 12,475 12,572 12,771 12,966 12,910
2020 12,785 12,826 12,816 11,911 9,711 10,420 10,956 10,558 10,868 10,413 11,121 11,084
2021 11,056 9,773 11,160 11,230 11,334 11,288 11,330 11,206 10,851 11,526 11,769 11,604
2022 11,369 11,306 11,655

In February of 2017, one month after Trump’s inauguration, we were producing (using YOUR link) 9,109,000 barrels/day. In March of 2020, as covid hit, producers had increased that to 12,816,000 barrels. A 40% increase in 36 months. And after tanking to below 10 million barrels at the COVID onset, it went back up to over 11,000,000 bbl/day under Trump in less than a year. What happens when Brandon takes over? It drops precipitously and then recovers somewhat, with production increasing to 11,655,000 barrels. But I’m not sure how one can look at that data (again, from YOUR Link) and see production #’s of 11,526k, 11,769k, 11,604k, 11,369k, 11,306k and 11,655k and say it’s a “generally increasing trend. That’s a six month trend of absolutely ZERO increase, FFS, and is essentially flat from about March of 2021 onward. And it’s during a time when this country is buried in inflationary costs and just getting groceries takes entire paychecks for many people. Instead, he shuts down pipelines, cancels leases, and gloats about the high cost of gas and heating oil forcing people to move to “green energy”, all while people are starving and freezing to death.

Congrats, I guess that makes you a “compassionate conservative”. :dunce: :dunce:
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

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Ibanez wrote: Sat Jun 04, 2022 5:51 am
BDKJMU wrote:Also 5 major refineries closed 2021. Biden’s election campaign rhetoric, 1st week EO’s, and actions since have played a major part in that.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/oi ... t-the-pump
We’ve posted about those refineries- they were closing down regardless of who was at 1600 Penn.


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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

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AZGrizFan wrote: Sat Jun 04, 2022 10:25 am
JohnStOnge wrote: Sat Jun 04, 2022 8:17 am Another thing: I see "conservatives" saying all the time that we were energy independent under Trump in 2020 then weren't any more under Biden. Here is a discussion of that with examples: https://www.reuters.com/article/factche ... SL2N2VQ2ZV.

However, as far as I can tell, the reason many said we were/are energy independent is that our annual petroleum exports came to exceed our annual petroleum imports. That happened in 2020. But it happened again in 2021. See https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil ... xports.php. So, no, we did not gain energy independence under Trump then lose it under Biden. At least not through 2021. We'll see what happens with 2022 but I doubt that we'll lose it if the current trend in production continues.

So, again, "conservatives' are spreading falsehoods.

You people can believe it or not but I am a conservative. However, what is generally called the "conservative" movement nowadays is overflowing with dishonesty. It operates by spewing a constant torrent of misinformation. And I believe that is inconsistent with what conservatism should be.
2017. 9,109 9,168 9,103 9,184 9,110 9,246 9,245 9,516 9,659 10,077 9,979
2018 9,996 10,276 10,461 10,493 10,424 10,628 10,888 11,373 11,422 11,488 11,868 11,924
2019 11,848 11,653 11,899 12,125 12,141 12,179 11,896 12,475 12,572 12,771 12,966 12,910
2020 12,785 12,826 12,816 11,911 9,711 10,420 10,956 10,558 10,868 10,413 11,121 11,084
2021 11,056 9,773 11,160 11,230 11,334 11,288 11,330 11,206 10,851 11,526 11,769 11,604
2022 11,369 11,306 11,655

In February of 2017, one month after Trump’s inauguration, we were producing (using YOUR link) 9,109,000 barrels/day. In March of 2020, as covid hit, producers had increased that to 12,816,000 barrels. A 40% increase in 36 months. And after tanking to below 10 million barrels at the COVID onset, it went back up to over 11,000,000 bbl/day under Trump in less than a year. What happens when Brandon takes over? It drops precipitously and then recovers somewhat, with production increasing to 11,655,000 barrels. But I’m not sure how one can look at that data (again, from YOUR Link) and see production #’s of 11,526k, 11,769k, 11,604k, 11,369k, 11,306k and 11,655k and say it’s a “generally increasing trend. That’s a six month trend of absolutely ZERO increase, FFS, and is essentially flat from about March of 2021 onward. And it’s during a time when this country is buried in inflationary costs and just getting groceries takes entire paychecks for many people. Instead, he shuts down pipelines, cancels leases, and gloats about the high cost of gas and heating oil forcing people to move to “green energy”, all while people are starving and freezing to death.

Congrats, I guess that makes you a “compassionate conservative”. :dunce: :dunce:
One can always snip shorter and shorter periods out until a trend is no longer evident. I am using an objective starting point. There has been a generally increasing trend in crude oil production since Biden took office. That is not debatable.

I try not to make personal statements but what you are doing is looking for ways to snip the data in ways that support what you want to believe to being with. I do not do that. I picked a starting point independent of the data and went with that. Had it turned out to suggest that oil production has declined since Biden took office, I would say so. I wouldn't look around to see if there is a way to snip the data to say otherwise.

In any case: The idea that Biden CUT oil production if obviously false. With respect to your statement that it has been flat since March 2020, here is a graph showing the line of best fit for March 2020 through March 2022:

Image

At this point the significance level for the slope being zero is only 92%. But it is only 13 pairs of data. That is what happens. As you reduce the range you make it more and more likely that you will not see a "significant" difference. And there really is no reason independent of the data themselves to pick March 2020 as the starting point.
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

Post by JohnStOnge »

Full disclosure: The slope of the line May 2020 through January 2021 is steeper in absolute terms than it is from February 2021 through March 2022. But it is not "significantly" different by any level accepted by convention. There is 89.3% confidence. By convention, the normal level at which one makes the "significant" call is 95%. Sometimes we wills ay that 90% is acceptable as borderline. So, by convention, we would not say that there is sufficient evidence to say that the rate of increase has changed to a degree that is beyond what would be expected through random variation.

In any case, the claim that production has declined during the Biden Administration is clearly false. That is not reasonably debatable.
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

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JohnStOnge wrote: Sat Jun 04, 2022 5:38 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Sat Jun 04, 2022 10:25 am

2017. 9,109 9,168 9,103 9,184 9,110 9,246 9,245 9,516 9,659 10,077 9,979
2018 9,996 10,276 10,461 10,493 10,424 10,628 10,888 11,373 11,422 11,488 11,868 11,924
2019 11,848 11,653 11,899 12,125 12,141 12,179 11,896 12,475 12,572 12,771 12,966 12,910
2020 12,785 12,826 12,816 11,911 9,711 10,420 10,956 10,558 10,868 10,413 11,121 11,084
2021 11,056 9,773 11,160 11,230 11,334 11,288 11,330 11,206 10,851 11,526 11,769 11,604
2022 11,369 11,306 11,655

In February of 2017, one month after Trump’s inauguration, we were producing (using YOUR link) 9,109,000 barrels/day. In March of 2020, as covid hit, producers had increased that to 12,816,000 barrels. A 40% increase in 36 months. And after tanking to below 10 million barrels at the COVID onset, it went back up to over 11,000,000 bbl/day under Trump in less than a year. What happens when Brandon takes over? It drops precipitously and then recovers somewhat, with production increasing to 11,655,000 barrels. But I’m not sure how one can look at that data (again, from YOUR Link) and see production #’s of 11,526k, 11,769k, 11,604k, 11,369k, 11,306k and 11,655k and say it’s a “generally increasing trend. That’s a six month trend of absolutely ZERO increase, FFS, and is essentially flat from about March of 2021 onward. And it’s during a time when this country is buried in inflationary costs and just getting groceries takes entire paychecks for many people. Instead, he shuts down pipelines, cancels leases, and gloats about the high cost of gas and heating oil forcing people to move to “green energy”, all while people are starving and freezing to death.

Congrats, I guess that makes you a “compassionate conservative”. :dunce: :dunce:
One can always snip shorter and shorter periods out until a trend is no longer evident. I am using an objective starting point. There has been a generally increasing trend in crude oil production since Biden took office. That is not debatable.

I try not to make personal statements but what you are doing is looking for ways to snip the data in ways that support what you want to believe to being with. I do not do that. I picked a starting point independent of the data and went with that. Had it turned out to suggest that oil production has declined since Biden took office, I would say so. I wouldn't look around to see if there is a way to snip the data to say otherwise.

In any case: The idea that Biden CUT oil production if obviously false. With respect to your statement that it has been flat since March 2020, here is a graph showing the line of best fit for March 2020 through March 2022:

Image

At this point the significance level for the slope being zero is only 92%. But it is only 13 pairs of data. That is what happens. As you reduce the range you make it more and more likely that you will not see a "significant" difference. And there really is no reason independent of the data themselves to pick March 2020 as the starting point.
Sure, when you start the Y axis at 10,900,000 barrels there’s a slight slope. :roll: :roll: :roll:

Talk about cherry picking. And none of your data manipulation changes the fact that he’s done ZERO to increase production while all of America suffers. Instead, he gloats that the high prices will hopefully drive everyone to purchase an electric car and get off of gasoline altogether.
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

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AZGrizFan wrote: Sat Jun 04, 2022 10:55 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Sat Jun 04, 2022 5:38 pm

One can always snip shorter and shorter periods out until a trend is no longer evident. I am using an objective starting point. There has been a generally increasing trend in crude oil production since Biden took office. That is not debatable.

I try not to make personal statements but what you are doing is looking for ways to snip the data in ways that support what you want to believe to being with. I do not do that. I picked a starting point independent of the data and went with that. Had it turned out to suggest that oil production has declined since Biden took office, I would say so. I wouldn't look around to see if there is a way to snip the data to say otherwise.

In any case: The idea that Biden CUT oil production if obviously false. With respect to your statement that it has been flat since March 2020, here is a graph showing the line of best fit for March 2020 through March 2022:

Image

At this point the significance level for the slope being zero is only 92%. But it is only 13 pairs of data. That is what happens. As you reduce the range you make it more and more likely that you will not see a "significant" difference. And there really is no reason independent of the data themselves to pick March 2020 as the starting point.
Sure, when you start the Y axis at 10,900,000 barrels there’s a slight slope. :roll: :roll: :roll:

Talk about cherry picking. And none of your data manipulation changes the fact that he’s done ZERO to increase production while all of America suffers. Instead, he gloats that the high prices will hopefully drive everyone to purchase an electric car and get off of gasoline altogether.
I don't see how you can say what's in that graph is cherry picking on my part. The period is the one you defined. I'm just showing that there is an upward slope associated with the period you defined and described as flat.
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

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I think I see what people may be talking about in saying that we became "Energy Independent" under Trump. See the first figure at https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil ... xports.php.

What you can see is that, in 2020 and for the first time during the period covered by the chart, total US petroleum production exceeded total US petroleum demand. You can also see that demand once again exceeded production in 2021.

But I think it is important to note that an obvious factor in that is that demand between 2019 and 2020 decreased by the largest amount during a one year period between 2019 and 2020 than it ever did during the period represented by the graph. You can see that the decrease in consumption was a bigger factor than the "increase" in production for that year, because production actually declined. So you had a decline in production, but the decline in consumption was even bigger so you got that situation in which production exceeded consumption.

That situation was associated with the biggest one year decline in GDP since 1946. The reason for it is obvious. COVID-19.

After declining between 2019 and 2020 in association with COVID-19, US total petroleum production increased again in 2021. But demand increased a little more so we were once again in a situation where total consumption slightly exceeded total domestic production.
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

Post by Pwns »

I mean, I remember the Obama fanboys making similar arguments. It's BS Obama made us energy independent just as much as Trump.

We're not "energy independent" in any sense as long as Mohammed Bin Salman and events like what's going on in Ukraine can basically affect the markets so much it doubles our gas prices.
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

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JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Jun 05, 2022 6:12 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Sat Jun 04, 2022 10:55 pm

Sure, when you start the Y axis at 10,900,000 barrels there’s a slight slope. :roll: :roll: :roll:

Talk about cherry picking. And none of your data manipulation changes the fact that he’s done ZERO to increase production while all of America suffers. Instead, he gloats that the high prices will hopefully drive everyone to purchase an electric car and get off of gasoline altogether.
I don't see how you can say what's in that graph is cherry picking on my part. The period is the one you defined. I'm just showing that there is an upward slope associated with the period you defined and described as flat.
The cherry-picking part is how the graph is constructed. The only way to show ANY slope is to start the y axis at 10,900,000 barrels. Otherwise, it’s basically no material change over the past several months.
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Jun 05, 2022 6:24 pm I think I see what people may be talking about in saying that we became "Energy Independent" under Trump. See the first figure at https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil ... xports.php.

What you can see is that, in 2020 and for the first time during the period covered by the chart, total US petroleum production exceeded total US petroleum demand. You can also see that demand once again exceeded production in 2021.

But I think it is important to note that an obvious factor in that is that demand between 2019 and 2020 decreased by the largest amount during a one year period between 2019 and 2020 than it ever did during the period represented by the graph. You can see that the decrease in consumption was a bigger factor than the "increase" in production for that year, because production actually declined. So you had a decline in production, but the decline in consumption was even bigger so you got that situation in which production exceeded consumption.

That situation was associated with the biggest one year decline in GDP since 1946. The reason for it is obvious. COVID-19.

After declining between 2019 and 2020 in association with COVID-19, US total petroleum production increased again in 2021. But demand increased a little more so we were once again in a situation where total consumption slightly exceeded total domestic production.
No, that’s not how or when we’re defining “independence”. We imported less oil than we exported. Period. If we kept our own oil, we’d not had to have imported a single barrel.
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Re: Biden’s Scorecard

Post by Ibanez »

BDKJMU wrote: Sat Jun 04, 2022 6:55 am
Ibanez wrote: Sat Jun 04, 2022 5:51 am
We’ve posted about those refineries- they were closing down regardless of who was at 1600 Penn.


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That’s not how that quoted analyst put it.
I posted an article about it a few weeks ago, that's how industry professionals put it.
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