2022 SCOTUS rulings

[SDHornet]

Here's a good article on public opinion on abortion and the nuances: https://www.npr.org/2019/06/07/73018353 ... strictions

The article notes that there is a great deal of complexity. But, still, there is no question that the distribution of opinion on this issue does not favor the Republicans and does not suggest that the public favors what just happened.

Look at the first graphic, for instance. Yes, there are nuances. But if you add it up, 51% of respondents said that they either favored the Roe vs. Wade status quo or they favored even more expansive abortion rights. Another 26% favored Roe vs. Wade with some modifications to restrict abortion to some extent.

Only 13% favored what just happened. And the Republicans are linked to what just happened.

The best news in the poll for Republicans is that Democrats did not put the abortion issue as high on the priority list as Republicans did. The question is whether that will change to some extent now that a "right" that has been taken for granted for nearly 50 years has been taken away.

Something tells me this mid-term May buck the trend due to several other issues like this one, starting with the chaotic nature of rapid change crisis periods.

What’s hard to pin down is whether the Republican brand drives voters and which way.

Economic issues are going to be the driving factor in November. I'd be surprised if abortion polls among the top 3 issues for voters this cycle.

[BDKJMU]

You’re still going to be twitching on late on Nov 8, because this decison isn’t going to stop the red tsunami..

I am not optimistic about 2022 but I remain optimistic about the long term. It is clear that the culture is evolving in a way that is hostile to the Republican Party as it is currently manifested. Republicans can delay things with laws to repress voting, try to control election counting, etc. But at some point the dam will break. In the end the Republican Party will either change the basic nature it has now or it will be consigned to irrelevancy.

Fake news..

[BDKJMU]

Something tells me this mid-term May buck the trend due to several other issues like this one, starting with the chaotic nature of rapid change crisis periods.

What’s hard to pin down is whether the Republican brand drives voters and which way.

The big problem is that we have inflation in general and high gasoline prices in particular. This is not due to Biden and the Democrats. But most of the public thinks that it is. That's the way it works. And that's what makes 2022 so difficult.

It's unfortunate because this country really needs to get rid of the Republican Party as a significant factor as soon as possible in order to make progress. But it is what it is.

[kalm]

The big problem is that we have inflation in general and high gasoline prices in particular. This is not due to Biden and the Democrats. But most of the public thinks that it is. That's the way it works. And that's what makes 2022 so difficult.

It's unfortunate because this country really needs to get rid of the Republican Party as a significant factor as soon as possible in order to make progress. But it is what it is.

Low information voters will blame Biden. Biden deserves some of the blame because his Democratic establishment continues to not address working class issues.

This is what happens when economic center right Democrats continue to follow the Republican playbook. Two Santa Claus theory in full effect.

[kalm]

[kalm]

The theocratic rulings march on…

“Washington (CNN)The Supreme Court said Monday that a Washington state school district violated the First Amendment rights of a high school football coach when he lost his job after praying at the 50-yard line after games.

The opinion was 6-3 along conservative-liberal ideological lines.
"The Constitution and the best of our traditions counsel mutual respect and tolerance, not censorship and suppression, for religious and nonreligious views alike," Justice Neil Gorsuch wrote in the majority opinion.”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/27/politics ... index.html

[Pwns]

Theocratic ruling.

[Pwns]

If high school football coaches can pray at the 50 yard line next the government will be burning witches and legalizing honor killings.

[kalm]

If high school football coaches can pray at the 50 yard line next the government will be burning witches and legalizing honor killings.

I don’t blame you for dumbing it down.

[kalm]

[Pwns]

That's cute and all, but good luck finding a football coach who's going to be willing to take part in that.

[Winterborn]

Low information voters will blame Biden. Biden deserves some of the blame because his Democratic establishment continues to not address working class issues.

This is what happens when economic center right Democrats continue to follow the Republican playbook. Two Santa Claus theory in full effect.

At least you give him "some" of the blame. How magnanimous of you.

After reading Biden's EO 13990 and past Democratic (and Republican) oil/fossil fuel policy's and coming to the conclusion that there has been a trend and policy decisions by the majority of the Democratic side of the field to keep those companies from expanding and operating in a normal manner, I guess I am still a low information voter.

First time for everything I guess.

[Winterborn]

The theocratic rulings march on…

“Washington (CNN)The Supreme Court said Monday that a Washington state school district violated the First Amendment rights of a high school football coach when he lost his job after praying at the 50-yard line after games.

The opinion was 6-3 along conservative-liberal ideological lines.
"The Constitution and the best of our traditions counsel mutual respect and tolerance, not censorship and suppression, for religious and nonreligious views alike," Justice Neil Gorsuch wrote in the majority opinion.”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/27/politics ... index.html

Another low information voter piece by CNN.

I wonder if the author of that article even bothered to read the opinion before he put pen to paper.

[Winterborn]

Roe was on shaky ground from the start, as the justices at the time pretty much made up reasons to come to the ruling they did (i.e. that they wanted it nationally and worked back from there).

The other items that Thomas mentions are rooted in the 14th Amendment and traditional legal cases. I am a bit puzzled by Thomas's wording in his opinion and would be interested in him explaining his justification for singling out those other claims (he probably never will and it will always be a mystery). Because to me (armchair legal scholar) they are different than the abortion topic and I do not see how one would invalidate them without resorting to the same shenanigans that made up the Roe decision.

Roe was built on Griswold. It's pretty hard, imo, to argue that Roe was on shaky ground without arguing that Griswold was on shaky ground.

Griswold established the right to privacy. In 1956.

I agree with Thomas. If there is no right to privacy - then rulings based on it need to be reexamined (and overturned).


And Thomas addresses your question in this footnote:

I guess it depends on whether or not one believes the 9th or the 14th amendment applies in either case.

Thomas believes one way, I believe another (the same way that 5 other SC justices believe apparently).

[Winterborn]

The map pretty much does not change even with the recent decision. Some of the blue states go to yellow, with a few going red depending on the circumstances.

[BDKJMU]

Low information voters will blame Biden. Biden deserves some of the blame because his Democratic establishment continues to not address working class issues.

This is what happens when economic center right Democrats continue to follow the Republican playbook. Two Santa Claus theory in full effect.

Inflation is govt caused, so you have to either blame Trump and the conks, or Biden amd the donks (and Putin lol).

Biden inherited 1.4% inflation. Then he proceed to ram through trillions and trillions in extra spending, bursting the inflation bubble. His so called Covid Relief bill extended the enhanced unemployment out to a year and a half, causing severe labor shortage and labor cost increases through the spring & summer of 21’. Also another round of stimulus which was like pouring gas on a fire (too much $$$ chasing too few goods).

Under Biden interest rates were kept at near zero for over a year.

Biden’s 2020 campaign declared a war on fossil fuel, and he carried that out on day 1, signing multiple anti fossil fuel EOs. And his admin has stonewalled on the permitting process.

And those are the 3 biggest drivers of inflation- spending, high oil prices, and low interest rates. And anyone with a lick of commom sense can see that Biden deserves the majority of the blame on all 3. Not Trump. Not Putin.

[BDKJMU]

Low information voters will blame Biden. Biden deserves some of the blame because his Democratic establishment continues to not address working class issues.

This is what happens when economic center right Democrats continue to follow the Republican playbook. Two Santa Claus theory in full effect.

At least you give him "some" of the blame. How magnanimous of you.

After reading Biden's EO 13990 and past Democratic (and Republican) oil/fossil fuel policy's and coming to the conclusion that there has been a trend and policy decisions by the majority of the Democratic side of the field to keep those companies from expanding and operating in a normal manner, I guess I am still a low information voter.

First time for everything I guess.

That makes 2 of us lol..

[BDKJMU]

You’re still going to be twitching on late on Nov 8, because this decison isn’t going to stop the red tsunami..

I am not optimistic about 2022 but I remain optimistic about the long term. It is clear that the culture is evolving in a way that is hostile to the Republican Party as it is currently manifested. Republicans can delay things with laws to repress voting, try to control election counting, etc. But at some point the dam will break. In the end the Republican Party will either change the basic nature it has now or it will be consigned to irrelevancy.

More than 1 million voters switch to GOP in warning for Dems

WASHINGTON (AP) — A political shift is beginning to take hold across the U.S. as tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who helped fuel the Democratic Party's gains in recent years are becoming Republicans.

More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press. The previously unreported number reflects a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country — Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns — in the period since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump.

But nowhere is the shift more pronounced — and dangerous for Democrats — than in the suburbs, where well-educated swing voters who turned against Trump's Republican Party in recent years appear to be swinging back. Over the last year, far more people are switching to the GOP across suburban counties from Denver to Atlanta and Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Republicans also gained ground in counties around medium-size cities such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Raleigh, North Carolina; Augusta, Georgia; and Des Moines, Iowa….

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... NewsSearch

[BDKJMU]

I would be OK with IQ testing if we could also make people with TDS (or whose wives with TDS murdered them and assumed their social media accounts) ineligible to vote as well.

[BDKJMU]

[BDKJMU]

The theocratic rulings march on…

“Washington (CNN)The Supreme Court said Monday that a Washington state school district violated the First Amendment rights of a high school football coach when he lost his job after praying at the 50-yard line after games.

The opinion was 6-3 along conservative-liberal ideological lines.
"The Constitution and the best of our traditions counsel mutual respect and tolerance, not censorship and suppression, for religious and nonreligious views alike," Justice Neil Gorsuch wrote in the majority opinion.”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/27/politics ... index.html

Today was a great day for relgious liberty..

[BDKJMU]

Lol at all the teeth knashing by the left about how this is an activist court. SCOUTUS didn’t say abortion is outlawed. They didn’t say a woman can’t have an abortion. They just said there’s no constitutional right to one, thereby kicking the issue back to the states.

An activist court would have said not only is there no constitutional right to an abortion, but a life in thr womb is a life under the equal protection clause, therefore all abortion is outlawed. But they didnt do that.

Now both sides will have to make their arguements at the state level. A win for democracy and states’ rights..

[JohnStOnge]

I will admit that I would be extremely tempted to say that people would have to take an IQ test in order to vote and could only vote if they scored at least 1 standard deviation above the mean. I think if we did that the Republican Party as it is now would become pretty much irrelevant. The country really needs for that to happen so I would be REALLY tempted.

But, no, I wouldn't do it in spite of the fact that it would be really good for the country as a practical matter. The end would not justify the means.

Yes. The party of voters who think men can menstruate, men can get pregnant, thinks children as young as 3 can “choose” their sexual identity and that we should be providing puberty blockers to aid them in their “transition, the party of voters that thinks COVID is a death sentence and masks work, thinks the civil war was fought in the 1960’s, thinks black people don’t have cell phones or internet, THOSE folks are going to fucking ACE an IQ test, I’m just positive of it.

It's the party of people who understand that, though there is a small chance of dying from COVID-19 in a single randomly selected case, it has a much higher mortality rate than something like seasonal influenza does and also a much higher hospitalization rate. They understand that the population impacts are significant. They understand that biological males do not menstruate and cannot get pregnant. As far as the gender identity stuff goes: Their outlook is consistent with the positions of the American Medical Association, the American Psychological Association, the American Academy of Pediatrics, and other major medical organizations. I've never heard of anybody who thinks the civil war was fought in the 1960s or thinks that black people don't have cell phones or internet. I suspect that comes from yet another instance of some conservative pundit or something taking something somebody said out of context.

The bottom line, though, is that people with graduate degrees have consistently voted by a substantial majority for Democrats and the margin has generally increased in recent years. During the 2020 election it was by 60% to 40% in the House Elections and by 62% to 37% in the Presidential election. That strongly suggests that if, we administered an IQ test and only allowed the top 15.87% to vote (the 1 standard deviation thing), the Republicans would be completely screwed.

The exit polls don't break the House races down by State. But the 2020 Republican candidate for President lost by an estimated 10 percentage points , 54% to 44%, among people with graduate degrees in TEXAS. He also lost by an estimated 8 percentage points, 53% to 45%, among people with graduate degrees in Florida.

We don't have direct measurement of IQ. But I'd be VERY confident that, if we only allowed those who scored at least 1 standard deviation above the mean on an IQ test to vote, the Republicans would become a non factor nationally. They might locally control a small minority of what are now deep red States. But they'd never win a Presidential election and they'd be small minorities in the House and Senate without enough people in the Senate to sustain a filibuster.

[JohnStOnge]

I am not optimistic about 2022 but I remain optimistic about the long term. It is clear that the culture is evolving in a way that is hostile to the Republican Party as it is currently manifested. Republicans can delay things with laws to repress voting, try to control election counting, etc. But at some point the dam will break. In the end the Republican Party will either change the basic nature it has now or it will be consigned to irrelevancy.

More than 1 million voters switch to GOP in warning for Dems

WASHINGTON (AP) — A political shift is beginning to take hold across the U.S. as tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who helped fuel the Democratic Party's gains in recent years are becoming Republicans.

More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press. The previously unreported number reflects a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country — Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns — in the period since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump.

But nowhere is the shift more pronounced — and dangerous for Democrats — than in the suburbs, where well-educated swing voters who turned against Trump's Republican Party in recent years appear to be swinging back. Over the last year, far more people are switching to the GOP across suburban counties from Denver to Atlanta and Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Republicans also gained ground in counties around medium-size cities such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Raleigh, North Carolina; Augusta, Georgia; and Des Moines, Iowa….

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... NewsSearch

I said I am not optimistic about 2022 but am optimistic about the long term. I am not surprised that Republicans enjoy a net edge in party switching at this time. But it's also not that big of a net effect. If you do the math on the numbers they present you get 1,070,000 switching to Republican and 630,000 switching to Democrat. That's a 440,000 net edge for the Republican side. That's something. I'd rather be on the Republican side than the Democratic side of the equation. But it's not overwhelming.

What I am talking about is that the underlying trend for the culture over time as well as the demographic evolution favors the Democrats in the long term. I don't think anything has changed about that basic situation.

[JohnStOnge]

Low information voters will blame Biden. Biden deserves some of the blame because his Democratic establishment continues to not address working class issues.

This is what happens when economic center right Democrats continue to follow the Republican playbook. Two Santa Claus theory in full effect.

Inflation is govt caused, so you have to either blame Trump and the conks, or Biden amd the donks (and Putin lol).

Biden inherited 1.4% inflation. Then he proceed to ram through trillions and trillions in extra spending, bursting the inflation bubble. His so called Covid Relief bill extended the enhanced unemployment out to a year and a half, causing severe labor shortage and labor cost increases through the spring & summer of 21’. Also another round of stimulus which was like pouring gas on a fire (too much $$$ chasing too few goods).

Under Biden interest rates were kept at near zero for over a year.

Biden’s 2020 campaign declared a war on fossil fuel, and he carried that out on day 1, signing multiple anti fossil fuel EOs. And his admin has stonewalled on the permitting process.

And those are the 3 biggest drivers of inflation- spending, high oil prices, and low interest rates. And anyone with a lick of commom sense can see that Biden deserves the majority of the blame on all 3. Not Trump. Not Putin.

I have posted before about, though there is a common impulse to say government spending results in inflation, the historical data do not really empirically support that outlook. Some economists adopt that view. Others do not.

In any case, as I'm sure you really know, the biggest single factor in what is a worldwide inflation problem is the COVID-19 pandemic. Here is one article on the worldwide nature of the problem: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... NewsSearch. Nothing anybody in the United States did caused that.

Here's an article on what is causing the problem: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/05/ ... %20Ukraine.

I have no illusions about the fact that, regardless of what is really going on, most people in the United States are going to blame Biden for it. But the blame is based on ignorance.