2022 Elections Thread

[UNI88]

Herschel Walker throws bruising counterpunch in U.S. Senate playground fight with Warnock

Walker’s proposed debate is to be staged on Oct. 14 in Savannah at a theater-to-be-named later. The timing and locale are significant in that Walker has challenged Warnock in the senator’s hometown - Warnock was born and raised a few dozen city blocks away from Savannah’s theater district - and agreed to do so in front of a sizable crowd, not in a small venue or a closed television studio.

Shrewd move by a candidate who the Warnock campaign has painted as a coward in recent months over his debate dodges. With this proposal, Walker tells Georgia voters that not only is he not afraid to debate Warnock, but that he’ll challenge him in his own backyard in front of what could be an animated audience.

Signs of competency from the Walker campaign.

[dbackjon]

The only Conk that could beat Kelly (Brnovich) finished third.

trump prioritizes his own ego over the Republican party or the country.

Correct.

Trump Candidates were the worst possible ones in AZ, OH, PA and GA. All should have been R possible wins (or slam dunk). Good chance Democrats win all 4

[dbackjon]

Herschel Walker throws bruising counterpunch in U.S. Senate playground fight with Warnock

Walker’s proposed debate is to be staged on Oct. 14 in Savannah at a theater-to-be-named later. The timing and locale are significant in that Walker has challenged Warnock in the senator’s hometown - Warnock was born and raised a few dozen city blocks away from Savannah’s theater district - and agreed to do so in front of a sizable crowd, not in a small venue or a closed television studio.

Shrewd move by a candidate who the Warnock campaign has painted as a coward in recent months over his debate dodges. With this proposal, Walker tells Georgia voters that not only is he not afraid to debate Warnock, but that he’ll challenge him in his own backyard in front of what could be an animated audience.

Signs of competency from the Walker campaign.

Until he opens his mouth.

[GannonFan]

trump prioritizes his own ego over the Republican party or the country.

Correct.

Trump Candidates were the worst possible ones in AZ, OH, PA and GA. All should have been R possible wins (or slam dunk). Good chance Democrats win all 4

Did you really mean OH? The Vance/Ryan race? You can't seriously think it's a good chance for Ryan to win? Even Silver has it as the most leaning election that's not a slam dunk (Vance favored 76%). Other than that, you're point is valid, although I don't know if a slam dunk was ever a possibility for any of the other races. AZ and GA were both Democratic incumbents, although certainly Warnock was and, even with Walker's pedestrian performance to date, still extremely vulnerable. I think GA actually goes whichever way the governor's race goes, so I think we could see more of Herschel Walker. PA will go with Fetterman unless he screws up or his health gets worse. I think AZ goes Dem as well.

[dbackjon]

Correct.

Trump Candidates were the worst possible ones in AZ, OH, PA and GA. All should have been R possible wins (or slam dunk). Good chance Democrats win all 4

Did you really mean OH? The Vance/Ryan race? You can't seriously think it's a good chance for Ryan to win? Even Silver has it as the most leaning election that's not a slam dunk (Vance favored 76%). Other than that, you're point is valid, although I don't know if a slam dunk was ever a possibility for any of the other races. AZ and GA were both Democratic incumbents, although certainly Warnock was and, even with Walker's pedestrian performance to date, still extremely vulnerable. I think GA actually goes whichever way the governor's race goes, so I think we could see more of Herschel Walker. PA will go with Fetterman unless he screws up or his health gets worse. I think AZ goes Dem as well.

Ohio should have been an easy R win to keep the seat. All the polls have Ryan ahead or tied. JD Vance is running an awful campaign.

Georgia and Arizona, with the two fill-in elections in 2020, seemed to be the R's best chances at pick ups (Nevada and NH are next).

NC is in the margin of error for a D pick up (Cunningham would have flipped a seat in 2020 if he had kept it in his pants). WI is close right now as well.

[BDKJMU]

Just remember, as far as the polls within the last month, you can add 4-9 point swing the conks way.
https://www.championshipsubdivision.com ... 9#p1411109

[dbackjon]

Just remember, as far as the polls within the last month, you can add 4-9 point swing the conks way.
https://www.championshipsubdivision.com ... 9#p1411109

Maybe in a normal cycle, but the one-two punch of the Supreme Court taking away women's rights and the Jan 6th investigation showing how treasonous Trump and many Republicans are make this far from normal.

We are seeing big swings to the Democrats among seniors - which is out of the ordinary.

[BDKJMU]

5 term Indiana conk congresswoman killed along with 2 aides in a head on collison on a rural stretch of Indiana highway. Driver of other vehicle also killed.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republ ... worst-news


https://nypost.com/2022/08/03/us-rep-ja ... crash/amp/
Apparently the 56 yr old driver of the pickup crossed the lane and hit them head on. Can see how that was fatal-looks like their SUV in the picture.

I’m assuming its a solid red district- apparently Walorski won relecletion in 2020 by 23 points. But the conks have already had their primary in May (Walorski was probably unopposed), so who runs in her place?

Now the police say it was the RAV-4 that Walorski was riding in, driven by the male staffer, that crossed the center line and caused the accident.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-AA10jbPi
Why do I have a feeling a phone was involved...

Also apparently a special election will be held to fill her seat, because the vacancy occurred more than 74 days before the general election, according to Indiana election law, with the special election likely being on the same day as the general election. Voters would be casting 2 ballots.
https://www.indystar.com/story/news/pol ... 391845007/

[BDKJMU]

Just remember, as far as the polls within the last month, you can add 4-9 point swing the conks way.
https://www.championshipsubdivision.com ... 9#p1411109

Maybe in a normal cycle, but the one-two punch of the Supreme Court taking away women's rights and the Jan 6th investigation showing how treasonous Trump and many Republicans are make this far from normal.

We are seeing big swings to the Democrats among seniors - which is out of the ordinary.

And you also have things FAR worse for democrats than in those 1994 & 2010 1st term midterms that were red wave. The 2 biggest issues by far:
-the economy (we're in the middle a recession, which is going to get worse as the Fed has to continue to raise rates to combat inflation).
-inflation (we're at a 40+ year high).
Add on top of that.
-record high crime.
-out of control border crisis with record high illegal immigration
-a backlash against donks for their Covid policies of 2021, esp with schools, and against donks for pushing wokism in schools (see the VA & NJ 2021 elections)
-still supply chain issues (baby formula one example of many).
-Biden is WAY more unpopular than Clinton or Obama was.

And no one outside the left cares about 1/6.

Going to be a BIG RED WAVE.

[UNI88]

Maybe in a normal cycle, but the one-two punch of the Supreme Court taking away women's rights and the Jan 6th investigation showing how treasonous Trump and many Republicans are make this far from normal.

We are seeing big swings to the Democrats among seniors - which is out of the ordinary.

And you also have things FAR worse for democrats than in those 1994 & 2010 1st term midterms that were red wave. The 2 biggest issues by far:
-the economy (we're in the middle a recession, which is going to get worse as the Fed has to continue to raise rates to combat inflation).
-inflation (we're at a 40+ year high).
Add on top of that.
-record high crime.
-out of control border crisis with record high illegal immigration
-a backlash against donks for their Covid policies of 2021, esp with schools, and against donks for pushing wokism in schools (see the VA & NJ 2021 elections)
-still supply chain issues (baby formula one example of many).
-Biden is WAY more unpopular than Clinton or Obama was.

And no one outside the left cares about 1/6.

Going to be a BIG RED WAVE.

So you're predicting that Conks win the House and Senate and win Senate races in AZ, OH, PA, GA, NV & NH?

As bad as it is (and you pointed out how bad it is), a BIG RED WAVE means they take those 6 seats. Not taking the Senate would be a yuge disappointment and would just be a little red wave.

[BDKJMU]

And you also have things FAR worse for democrats than in those 1994 & 2010 1st term midterms that were red wave. The 2 biggest issues by far:
-the economy (we're in the middle a recession, which is going to get worse as the Fed has to continue to raise rates to combat inflation).
-inflation (we're at a 40+ year high).
Add on top of that.
-record high crime.
-out of control border crisis with record high illegal immigration
-a backlash against donks for their Covid policies of 2021, esp with schools, and against donks for pushing wokism in schools (see the VA & NJ 2021 elections)
-still supply chain issues (baby formula one example of many).
-Biden is WAY more unpopular than Clinton or Obama was.

And no one outside the left cares about 1/6.

Going to be a BIG RED WAVE.

So you're predicting that Conks win the House and Senate and win Senate races in AZ, OH, PA, GA, NV & NH?

As bad as it is (and you pointed out how bad it is), not taking the Senate would be a yuge disappointment and would equal NO BIG RED WAVE.

I'm prediciting the conks will take the House, having their biggest majority since 1928, which would take a gain of 35 House seats, and will also take the Senate with at least 51 seats.

And I was going to add to my adbove post : "Its the economy stupid"

[UNI88]

So you're predicting that Conks win the House and Senate and win Senate races in AZ, OH, PA, GA, NV & NH?

As bad as it is (and you pointed out how bad it is), not taking the Senate would be a yuge disappointment and would equal NO BIG RED WAVE.

I'm prediciting the conks will take the House, having their biggest majority since 1929, which would take a gain of 35 House seats, and will also take the Senate with at least 51 seats.

And I was going to add to my adbove post : "Its the economy stupid"

With how bad things are economically, a BIG RED WAVE means winning those 6 Senate seats (AZ, OH, PA, GA, NV & NH) not just taking the Senate. You're trying to spin a medium red wave.

Which party will benefit more (in the 2024 election) from the 2 years of gridlock that we're about to experience?

[Baldy]

I'm prediciting the conks will take the House, having their biggest majority since 1929, which would take a gain of 35 House seats, and will also take the Senate with at least 51 seats.

And I was going to add to my adbove post : "Its the economy stupid"

With how bad things are economically, a BIG RED WAVE means winning those 6 Senate seats (AZ, OH, PA, GA, NV & NH) not just taking the Senate. You're trying to spin a medium red wave.

Which party will benefit more (in the 2024 election) from the 2 years of gridlock that we're about to experience?

It would be a big red wave......but Trump.

[UNI88]

With how bad things are economically, a BIG RED WAVE means winning those 6 Senate seats (AZ, OH, PA, GA, NV & NH) not just taking the Senate. You're trying to spin a medium red wave.

Which party will benefit more (in the 2024 election) from the 2 years of gridlock that we're about to experience?

It would be a big red wave......but Trump.

So trump's impact on the size of the wave is the equivalent of thinking about dead puppies and nuns on an erection? trump causes the Republican Party to experience ED.

I do think over-turning Roe and the J6 Commission hearings will also have an impact with moderates/independents no matter how much BDK hopes they don't.

[Pwns]

Does this guy really think "**** parental control in education" is a winning message?

From the same dope that gave us "hell yeah we're going to take your AR-15".

[BDKJMU]

Trump-backed Kari Lake wins Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary
Kari Lake held a slight lead over Karrin Taylor Robson in Arizona's Republican primary, and the race was officially called Thursday night

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... al-primary

[BDKJMU]

Does this guy really think "**** parental control in education" is a winning message?

From the same dope that gave us "hell yeah we're going to take your AR-15".

Well, it worked really well for Terry McAuliffe in Virginia.

Abbott's team should make a campaign commercial of the fake Mexican's comments, turn them into a campaign commercial, and play it non stop.

The Fake Mexican says he hadn't heard of CRT. Sounds like McAuliffe. Couldn't tell you what CRT was, then said it was made up, and people concerned about it were racist.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson ... s-n2597220

[kalm]

Does this guy really think "**** parental control in education" is a winning message?

From the same dope that gave us "hell yeah we're going to take your AR-15".

Well, it worked really well for Terry McAuliffe in Virginia.

Abbott's team should make a campaign commercial of the fake Mexican's comments, turn them into a campaign commercial, and play it non stop.

The Fake Mexican says he hadn't heard of CRT. Sounds like McAuliffe. Couldn't tell you what CRT was, then it was made up, and people concerned about it were racist.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson ... s-n2597220

I’m just glad we somehow survived the scourge of CRT.

[houndawg]

It would be a big red wave......but Trump.

So trump's impact on the size of the wave is the equivalent of thinking about dead puppies and nuns on an erection? trump causes the Republican Party to experience ED.

I do think over-turning Roe and the J6 Commission hearings will also have an impact with moderates/independents no matter how much BDK hopes they don't.

even the women opposed to abortion still want to have the option available

[GannonFan]

Did you really mean OH? The Vance/Ryan race? You can't seriously think it's a good chance for Ryan to win? Even Silver has it as the most leaning election that's not a slam dunk (Vance favored 76%). Other than that, you're point is valid, although I don't know if a slam dunk was ever a possibility for any of the other races. AZ and GA were both Democratic incumbents, although certainly Warnock was and, even with Walker's pedestrian performance to date, still extremely vulnerable. I think GA actually goes whichever way the governor's race goes, so I think we could see more of Herschel Walker. PA will go with Fetterman unless he screws up or his health gets worse. I think AZ goes Dem as well.

Ohio should have been an easy R win to keep the seat. All the polls have Ryan ahead or tied. JD Vance is running an awful campaign.

Georgia and Arizona, with the two fill-in elections in 2020, seemed to be the R's best chances at pick ups (Nevada and NH are next).

NC is in the margin of error for a D pick up (Cunningham would have flipped a seat in 2020 if he had kept it in his pants). WI is close right now as well.

Even with those polls, the folks like Silver still have OH as no less than lean R, and in most cases have it as a solid R. It's also a guberntatorial race in Ohio this year with a strong GOP incumbent. I'm not seeing a strong chance for a Dem to win down ticket in that state in that setup. But hey, if you want to predict a Dem win go right ahead.

[JohnStOnge]

Does this guy really think "**** parental control in education" is a winning message?

From the same dope that gave us "hell yeah we're going to take your AR-15".

That's actually the correct position to take and it's a shame that we have a bunch of nut jobs in this country who don't understand that.

[JohnStOnge]

So you're predicting that Conks win the House and Senate and win Senate races in AZ, OH, PA, GA, NV & NH?

As bad as it is (and you pointed out how bad it is), not taking the Senate would be a yuge disappointment and would equal NO BIG RED WAVE.

I'm prediciting the conks will take the House, having their biggest majority since 1928, which would take a gain of 35 House seats, and will also take the Senate with at least 51 seats.

And I was going to add to my adbove post : "Its the economy stupid"

Could happen but as of now the trend is towards the Democrat position improving. See https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -7361.html.

it's still not good because the Republicans have a structural advantage whereby if it's even or close to even they win more seats. But the trend is in the right direction for Democrats. At least for now.

And the abortion thing may indeed be a bigger deal than expected. The Democrats do indeed have something they can pin on Republicans. Republicans have said things to indicate they would try to do a nationwide ban on abortions and a substantial majority of the population does not favor that. I think what just happened in Kansas suggests people may have been underestimating how important that is. I don't think many people expected that kind of blowout win for the "pro choice" side. I certainly didn't. if I'd have had to bet, i would have bet the "pro life" side would win.
It's a deep "red" State.

In terms of Party the Democratic Party is the "pro choice" side. The Republican Party is the "pro life" side. The line is distinctly drawn and i expect that the Democrats will emphasize it.

We'll see what happens. I would still bet that the Republicans take control of the House. But I think things look a lot better now for the Democrats than they did before the Dobbs decision. And I think the Senate is now a coin flip because the Republicans nominated some real freak-show jobs as some of their candidates in some key States.

[JohnStOnge]

Another poll suggesting that the Republican Party is the Party of relatively uneducated White People:

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-instit ... 80322.pdf/

The question is:

Would you rather see the Republicans or the Democrats in control of Congress, or doesnt this matter to you? [with leaners]
[Parties were rotated]

Among Whites with no college degree, 26% said they'd prefer Democrats in control while 44% said they'd prefer to see Republicans in control.

But, among Whites with college degrees, 51% said they'd rather see Democrats in control while 33% said they'd prefer to see Republicans in control.

When you include leans, it's Whites without college degrees favoring Republicans being in control by 59% to 34% and Whites WITH college degrees favoring Democrats by 58% to 39%.

Among non Whites I'll just do definite or lean. Whites responded Republican or lean Republican by 52% to 43%. Non Whites responded Democrat or lean Democrat 64% to 29%.

So it's the same indication: The Republican Party is the Party of relatively uneducated White people, If you removed Whites without college degrees from the equation, the Republican Party would be totally irrelevant. No other race x education group would vote for them.

To put it into perspective: Among people who were NOT white people without college degrees in Texas in 2020, Biden beat Trump by 58% to 42%. That's Texas. Imagine what it's like for Republicans among people who are NOT white people without college degrees nationally.

[Baldy]

Does this guy really think "**** parental control in education" is a winning message?

From the same dope that gave us "hell yeah we're going to take your AR-15".

That's actually the correct position to take and it's a shame that we have a bunch of nut jobs in this country who don't understand that.

Keep thinking that way so more and more states will start letting parents take their school tax dollars elsewhere.

[kalm]

Does this guy really think "**** parental control in education" is a winning message?

From the same dope that gave us "hell yeah we're going to take your AR-15".

That's actually the correct position to take and it's a shame that we have a bunch of nut jobs in this country who don't understand that.

(Looks around at America)