2022 Elections Thread

[JohnStOnge]

Another sad thing is people thinking that Republican governance is associated with less crime. See https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-red ... er-problem.

For what it is worth...and it is worth something to me...the source has the following rating by mediabiasfactcheck.com:



The idea that crime will get better if Republicans are in charge is, historically, nonsense. Beyond that, this is not the historical Republican Party. This is a Party that has been corrupted and is controlled by nut jobs.

[UNI88]

Another sad thing is people thinking that Republican governance is associated with less crime. See https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-red ... er-problem.

For what it is worth...and it is worth something to me...the source has the following rating by mediabiasfactcheck.com:



The idea that crime will get better if Republicans are in charge is, historically, nonsense. Beyond that, this is not the historical Republican Party. This is a Party that has been corrupted and is controlled by nut jobs.

How about a link showing murder rates by state (and by major metropolitan area) from 2018 - 2022. The defund the police movement took off with George Floyd's murder in 2020 so the perceived change in murder (and crime) from 2022 is what concerns voters.

Living in Portland (Portland is on pace to near or surpass 2021′s record 92 killings and record 1,327 shootings.), I can tell you that it doesn't paint a pretty picture for the Democrats. Add in indifference to the homeless crisis and it makes sense why people who normally vote Democrat are considering Republican or independent candidates in 2022.

While domestic violence and random shootings by people with easy access to guns have contributed to the toll, gang-related rivalries and fights among armed people living on the street have driven this year’s killings, said Sgt. Joe Santos, a Portland homicide division supervisor before he retired recently.

Fifty-five people died through July, most of them in shootings. Almost half of the victims were Black people, mostly men -- far disproportionate to the 6% of Multnomah County’s population that identifies as Black and 3% who identify as Black men.

[JohnStOnge]

You have to be a complete idiot to vote for Republican right now. You really do. Unfortunately, the United States has a lot of complete idiots in it.

[JohnStOnge]

Another sad thing is people thinking that Republican governance is associated with less crime. See https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-red ... er-problem.

For what it is worth...and it is worth something to me...the source has the following rating by mediabiasfactcheck.com:



The idea that crime will get better if Republicans are in charge is, historically, nonsense. Beyond that, this is not the historical Republican Party. This is a Party that has been corrupted and is controlled by nut jobs.

How about a link showing murder rates by state (and by major metropolitan area) from 2018 - 2022. The defund the police movement took off with George Floyd's murder in 2020 so the perceived change in murder (and crime) from 2022 is what concerns voters.

Living in Portland (Portland is on pace to near or surpass 2021′s record 92 killings and record 1,327 shootings.), I can tell you that it doesn't paint a pretty picture for the Democrats. Add in indifference to the homeless crisis and it makes sense why people who normally vote Democrat are considering Republican or independent candidates in 2022.

While domestic violence and random shootings by people with easy access to guns have contributed to the toll, gang-related rivalries and fights among armed people living on the street have driven this year’s killings, said Sgt. Joe Santos, a Portland homicide division supervisor before he retired recently.

Fifty-five people died through July, most of them in shootings. Almost half of the victims were Black people, mostly men -- far disproportionate to the 6% of Multnomah County’s population that identifies as Black and 3% who identify as Black men.

The analysis shows that the problem was worse in Republican controlled States than it was in Democrat controlled States. It is what it is. There is no evidence that Republicans being in charge means lower crime rates.

[UNI88]

How about a link showing murder rates by state (and by major metropolitan area) from 2018 - 2022. The defund the police movement took off with George Floyd's murder in 2020 so the perceived change in murder (and crime) from 2022 is what concerns voters.

Living in Portland (Portland is on pace to near or surpass 2021′s record 92 killings and record 1,327 shootings.), I can tell you that it doesn't paint a pretty picture for the Democrats. Add in indifference to the homeless crisis and it makes sense why people who normally vote Democrat are considering Republican or independent candidates in 2022.

The analysis shows that the problem was worse in Republican controlled States than it was in Democrat controlled States. It is what it is. There is no evidence that Republicans being in charge means lower crime rates.

Don't be obtuse. It shows data at a point in time. It doesn't show trends, especially the trend since 2020, which is important when considering why people might blame Democrats for increased crime and violence.

You're so determined to make Republicans look bad that you can't see that your bias impacts what data you look at and how you look at it.

[Winterborn]

Don't be obtuse. It shows data at a point in time. It doesn't show trends, especially the trend since 2020, which is important when considering why people might blame Democrats for increased crime and violence.

You're so determined to make Republicans look bad that you can't see that your bias impacts what data you look at and how you look at it.

JSO's entire political philosophy can be completely structured around his post just a few replies up (quoted below) and it really sums up the entire political lens he views any and all data or topics through. He is textbook case of a myopic political viewpoint.

by JohnStOnge » Mon Oct 24, 2022 7:11 pm
You have to be a complete idiot to vote for Republican right now. You really do. Unfortunately, the United States has a lot of complete idiots in it.

I have ran across similar people in public (and online) and while they are humorous to engage, it is untimely pointless. This is due to the fact they they have convinced themselves of their own viewpoint so thoroughly that no other information can or will be considered (aka they are in love with themselves and that is pretty Trumpian if I do say so myself).

The humorous point is that they become what they hate but do not realize it. The term is Egocentric and is defined as "egocentrism, in psychology, the cognitive shortcomings that underlie the failure, in both children and adults, to recognize the idiosyncratic nature of one’s knowledge or the subjective nature of one’s perceptions."

https://www.britannica.com/science/egocentrism

At best they are an example of the trap one should not fall into into with ones own beliefs.

[kalm]

Don't be obtuse. It shows data at a point in time. It doesn't show trends, especially the trend since 2020, which is important when considering why people might blame Democrats for increased crime and violence.

You're so determined to make Republicans look bad that you can't see that your bias impacts what data you look at and how you look at it.

JSO's entire political philosophy can be completely structured around his post just a few replies up (quoted below) and it really sums up the entire political lens he views any and all data or topics through. He is textbook case of a myopic political viewpoint.

by JohnStOnge » Mon Oct 24, 2022 7:11 pm
You have to be a complete idiot to vote for Republican right now. You really do. Unfortunately, the United States has a lot of complete idiots in it.

I have ran across similar people in public (and online) and while they are humorous to engage, it is untimely pointless. This is due to the fact they they have convinced themselves of their own viewpoint so thoroughly that no other information can or will be considered (aka they are in love with themselves and that is pretty Trumpian if I do say so myself).

The humorous point is that they become what they hate but do not realize it. The term is Egocentric and is defined as "egocentrism, in psychology, the cognitive shortcomings that underlie the failure, in both children and adults, to recognize the idiosyncratic nature of one’s knowledge or the subjective nature of one’s perceptions."

https://www.britannica.com/science/egocentrism

At best they are an example of the trap one should not fall into into with ones own beliefs.

Sure…and both sides do it!

The challenge lies in not conflating an American two party-limited system heavily based in legalized corruption and crony capitalism with ideology.

What if both political parties are bad at crime? What are each party’s remedies?

[houndawg]

Don't be obtuse. It shows data at a point in time. It doesn't show trends, especially the trend since 2020, which is important when considering why people might blame Democrats for increased crime and violence.

You're so determined to make Republicans look bad that you can't see that your bias impacts what data you look at and how you look at it.

JSO's entire political philosophy can be completely structured around his post just a few replies up (quoted below) and it really sums up the entire political lens he views any and all data or topics through. He is textbook case of a myopic political viewpoint.

by JohnStOnge » Mon Oct 24, 2022 7:11 pm
You have to be a complete idiot to vote for Republican right now. You really do. Unfortunately, the United States has a lot of complete idiots in it.

I have ran across similar people in public (and online) and while they are humorous to engage, it is untimely pointless. This is due to the fact they they have convinced themselves of their own viewpoint so thoroughly that no other information can or will be considered (aka they are in love with themselves and that is pretty Trumpian if I do say so myself).

The humorous point is that they become what they hate but do not realize it. The term is Egocentric and is defined as "egocentrism, in psychology, the cognitive shortcomings that underlie the failure, in both children and adults, to recognize the idiosyncratic nature of one’s knowledge or the subjective nature of one’s perceptions."

https://www.britannica.com/science/egocentrism

At best they are an example of the trap one should not fall into into with ones own beliefs.

This is confusing - could you contrast it with an example that is timely pointless?

[kalm]

It’s a bad thing when voter turnout is high, no?

[HI54UNI]

It’s a bad thing when voter turnout is high, no?

I thought Georgia passed voter suppression laws that made it virtually impossible to vote unless you were a white male?

[kalm]

It’s a bad thing when voter turnout is high, no?

I thought Georgia passed voter suppression laws that made it virtually impossible to vote unless you were a white male?

I don’t think that would be constitutional.

[HI54UNI]

I thought Georgia passed voter suppression laws that made it virtually impossible to vote unless you were a white male?

I don’t think that would be constitutional.

I'm just going by what Georgia Gov. Stacy Abrams told me. The suppression is so bad they had to move the baseball All Star game from Georgia.

[Winterborn]

JSO's entire political philosophy can be completely structured around his post just a few replies up (quoted below) and it really sums up the entire political lens he views any and all data or topics through. He is textbook case of a myopic political viewpoint.



I have ran across similar people in public (and online) and while they are humorous to engage, it is untimely pointless. This is due to the fact they they have convinced themselves of their own viewpoint so thoroughly that no other information can or will be considered (aka they are in love with themselves and that is pretty Trumpian if I do say so myself).

The humorous point is that they become what they hate but do not realize it. The term is Egocentric and is defined as "egocentrism, in psychology, the cognitive shortcomings that underlie the failure, in both children and adults, to recognize the idiosyncratic nature of one’s knowledge or the subjective nature of one’s perceptions."

https://www.britannica.com/science/egocentrism

At best they are an example of the trap one should not fall into into with ones own beliefs.

Sure…and both sides do it!

The challenge lies in not conflating an American two party-limited system heavily based in legalized corruption and crony capitalism with ideology.

What if both political parties are bad at crime? What are each party’s remedies?

You're are as predictable and regular as Metamucil.

Your whataboutism post is noted.

[kalm]

Sure…and both sides do it!

The challenge lies in not conflating an American two party-limited system heavily based in legalized corruption and crony capitalism with ideology.

What if both political parties are bad at crime? What are each party’s remedies?

You're are as predictable and regular as Metamucil.

Your whataboutism post is noted.

It’s perception and marketing. EG: Spokane County Sheriff is a conk. Everyone complains about the growing crime rate, homelessness, and unresponsive police. He’s been Sheriff for a very long time. I don’t automatically blame him. Nor do I project his performance nationwide.

But that’s just me.

[UNI88]

You're are as predictable and regular as Metamucil.

Your whataboutism post is noted.

It’s perception and marketing. EG: Spokane County Sheriff is a conk. Everyone complains about the growing crime rate, homelessness, and unresponsive police. He’s been Sheriff for a very long time. I don’t automatically blame him. Nor do I project his performance nationwide.

But that’s just me.

Vague.

Where is crime and homelessness growing? is it within Spokane city limits or outside in the sheriff's jurisdiction? If it's within the city limits, what is the affiliation of the Spokane mayor and city council? Has the Spokane PD been supported or has their funding been cut and/or their methods criticized?

Democrats supported and thus own the impact of the defund the police movement.

[kalm]

It’s perception and marketing. EG: Spokane County Sheriff is a conk. Everyone complains about the growing crime rate, homelessness, and unresponsive police. He’s been Sheriff for a very long time. I don’t automatically blame him. Nor do I project his performance nationwide.

But that’s just me.

Vague.

Where is crime and homelessness growing? is it within Spokane city limits or outside in the sheriff's jurisdiction? If it's within the city limits, what is the affiliation of the Spokane mayor and city council? Has the Spokane PD been supported or has their funding been cut and/or their methods criticized?

Democrats supported and thus own the impact of the defund the police movement.

You’re proving my point. Thank you.

[UNI88]

Vague.

Where is crime and homelessness growing? is it within Spokane city limits or outside in the sheriff's jurisdiction? If it's within the city limits, what is the affiliation of the Spokane mayor and city council? Has the Spokane PD been supported or has their funding been cut and/or their methods criticized?

Democrats supported and thus own the impact of the defund the police movement.

You’re proving my point. Thank you.

So we agree that Democrats own the increase in crime due to their support of defund the police movements and it is justifiably impacting their election chances in 2022. Awesome!

[kalm]

You’re proving my point. Thank you.

So we agree that Democrats own the increase in crime due to their support of defund the police movements and it is justifiably impacting their election chances in 2022. Awesome!

We agree that Republicans are better at messaging the negative. Defund the police was also a bad marketing slogan. So yes on the political/election impact.

Dems own part of the recent increase. So do Republicans. That’s a much deeper longer dive.

[UNI88]

So we agree that Democrats own the increase in crime due to their support of defund the police movements and it is justifiably impacting their election chances in 2022. Awesome!

We agree that Republicans are better at messaging the negative. Defund the police was also a bad marketing slogan. So yes on the political/election impact.

Dems own part of the recent increase. So do Republicans. That’s a much deeper longer dive.

Defund the police wasn't just a slogan, there were municipalities that cut police funding. There were also elected officials that demonized their police forces and limited how they could respond to riots and other crimes. Both of these things impacted police morale which also impacted response to crime. Democrats, not Republicans, were behind these efforts and they own the results.

Republicans are culpable for any increases in crime that resulted from less stringent gun laws and similar. These changes began long before the defund the police effort took off in 2020.

You have to consider the trend in criminal activity to honestly asses these impacts. Looking at a single year is disingenuous.

[Baldy]

I don’t think that would be constitutional.

I'm just going by what Georgia Gov. Stacy Abrams told me. The suppression is so bad they had to move the baseball All Star game from Georgia.

I believe Slush Fund Stacey and her ilk called it Jim Crow 2.0

It was so horrible that her PAC hired her lawyer friend and paid her over $9 Million to fight and lose in court.

[Winterborn]

Defund the police wasn't just a slogan, there were municipalities that cut police funding. There were also elected officials that demonized their police forces and limited how they could respond to riots and other crimes. Both of these things impacted police morale which also impacted response to crime. Democrats, not Republicans, were behind these efforts and they own the results.

Republicans are culpable for any increases in crime that resulted from less stringent gun laws and similar. These changes began long before the defund the police effort took off in 2020.

You have to consider the trend in criminal activity to honestly asses these impacts. Looking at a single year is disingenuous.

I think this helps (but not completely) answer your question 88.

No, it doesn’t. The bogus claim comes from a March study by the Democratic think tank Third Way, which purports to show that, contrary to “the right-wing obsession over homicides in Democratic cities: murder rates are far higher in Trump-voting red states than Biden-voting blue states.” According to Third Way, of the top 10 states with the highest per-capita murder rates in 2020, eight (Missouri, Louisiana, Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, Mississippi and Arkansas) voted for Donald Trump, while just two (New Mexico and Georgia) voted for Joe Biden. “Republicans seem to do a much better job of talking about stopping crime than stopping crime,” Jim Kessler, an author of the report, told Axios.

One problem with that: In most of these red states, the high murder rates are driven by the lethal violence in their blue cities.

Take Missouri. Yes, it voted for Trump. But it is also home to two of the most dangerous U.S. cities — St. Louis and Kansas City — both of which are run by Democrats. Earlier this year, CBS News did an analysis of the “deadliest U.S. cities” using the latest FBI and other crime data. In 2019, it found, St. Louis had the highest murder rate in the nation, with 64.54 murders per 100,000 residents. Kansas City, meanwhile, had the eighth-highest murder rate, with 29.88 murders per 100,000. According to the FBI, the state had about 520 murders in major metropolitan areas that year, 20 in cities outside metropolitan areas, and 28 in nonmetropolitan counties. So, the vast majority of Missouri’s homicides took place in its Democrat-run cities.
...

Third Way does not provide city-by-city data for 2020 in its report, perhaps because this would undermine its red state murder narrative. But the Manhattan Institute’s Rafael Mangual gathered data on the 2020 murder rates in the 50 largest U.S. cities — 34 of which had Democratic mayors, while 14 were led by Republicans (two were led by independents). “The homicide rate in the blue cities was 15.8 per 100,000, compared to 9.4 per 100,000 in the red cities,” he found.

And in a May report, his Manhattan Institute colleagues Robert VerBruggen and Christos Makridis examined the growth in the homicide rate per capita in the largest U.S. counties between 2019 and 2020 — and then compared the rates in GOP-leaning and Democratic-leaning counties. They found that “counties with higher shares of GOP voters have a much lower homicide death rate and a lower number of deaths in 2020” and “also a lower growth in homicide rates.”

https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-red-stat ... iven-myth/

[Winterborn]

Little bit more data.

Homicide rates in rural America rose 25% in 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It was the largest rural increase since the agency began tracking such data in 1999. The CDC considers counties rural if they are located outside metropolitan areas defined by the federal government.

The rise came close to the 30% spike in homicide rates in metropolitan areas in 2020.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/violent-cr ... 1654864251

[kalm]

We agree that Republicans are better at messaging the negative. Defund the police was also a bad marketing slogan. So yes on the political/election impact.

Dems own part of the recent increase. So do Republicans. That’s a much deeper longer dive.

Defund the police wasn't just a slogan, there were municipalities that cut police funding. There were also elected officials that demonized their police forces and limited how they could respond to riots and other crimes. Both of these things impacted police morale which also impacted response to crime. Democrats, not Republicans, were behind these efforts and they own the results.

Republicans are culpable for any increases in crime that resulted from less stringent gun laws and similar. These changes began long before the defund the police effort took off in 2020.

You have to consider the trend in criminal activity to honestly asses these impacts. Looking at a single year is disingenuous.

I’m not looking at a single year. How many years should we go back?

How many police departments were actually defunded, what was their size, what was their location?

And what kind of crime? Property? Violent? Drug?

Our longest war in history, the War on Drugs certainly increased crime rates, didn’t it?

It’s an extremely complicated issue.

[UNI88]

Defund the police wasn't just a slogan, there were municipalities that cut police funding. There were also elected officials that demonized their police forces and limited how they could respond to riots and other crimes. Both of these things impacted police morale which also impacted response to crime. Democrats, not Republicans, were behind these efforts and they own the results.

Republicans are culpable for any increases in crime that resulted from less stringent gun laws and similar. These changes began long before the defund the police effort took off in 2020.

You have to consider the trend in criminal activity to honestly asses these impacts. Looking at a single year is disingenuous.

I’m not looking at a single year. How many years should we go back?

How many police departments were actually defunded, what was their size, what was their location?

And what kind of crime? Property? Violent? Drug?

Our longest war in history, the War on Drugs certainly increased crime rates, didn’t it?

It’s an extremely complicated issue.

Yes it is a complicated issue but that doesn't change the current narrative which is that Democrats are soft on crime. That narrative is strongly supported by anecdotal stories about what has happened over the last couple of years in liberal cities such as Portland and San Francisco.

Don't ask me to dig up statistics to support the existing narrative. It's already out there and it's your job to dig up statistics to disprove it. Now roll up your sleeves and get to work.

[UNI88]

Defund the police wasn't just a slogan, there were municipalities that cut police funding. There were also elected officials that demonized their police forces and limited how they could respond to riots and other crimes. Both of these things impacted police morale which also impacted response to crime. Democrats, not Republicans, were behind these efforts and they own the results.

Republicans are culpable for any increases in crime that resulted from less stringent gun laws and similar. These changes began long before the defund the police effort took off in 2020.

You have to consider the trend in criminal activity to honestly asses these impacts. Looking at a single year is disingenuous.

I think this helps (but not completely) answer your question 88.

No, it doesn’t. The bogus claim comes from a March study by the Democratic think tank Third Way, which purports to show that, contrary to “the right-wing obsession over homicides in Democratic cities: murder rates are far higher in Trump-voting red states than Biden-voting blue states.” According to Third Way, of the top 10 states with the highest per-capita murder rates in 2020, eight (Missouri, Louisiana, Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, Mississippi and Arkansas) voted for Donald Trump, while just two (New Mexico and Georgia) voted for Joe Biden. “Republicans seem to do a much better job of talking about stopping crime than stopping crime,” Jim Kessler, an author of the report, told Axios.

One problem with that: In most of these red states, the high murder rates are driven by the lethal violence in their blue cities.

Take Missouri. Yes, it voted for Trump. But it is also home to two of the most dangerous U.S. cities — St. Louis and Kansas City — both of which are run by Democrats. Earlier this year, CBS News did an analysis of the “deadliest U.S. cities” using the latest FBI and other crime data. In 2019, it found, St. Louis had the highest murder rate in the nation, with 64.54 murders per 100,000 residents. Kansas City, meanwhile, had the eighth-highest murder rate, with 29.88 murders per 100,000. According to the FBI, the state had about 520 murders in major metropolitan areas that year, 20 in cities outside metropolitan areas, and 28 in nonmetropolitan counties. So, the vast majority of Missouri’s homicides took place in its Democrat-run cities.
...

Third Way does not provide city-by-city data for 2020 in its report, perhaps because this would undermine its red state murder narrative. But the Manhattan Institute’s Rafael Mangual gathered data on the 2020 murder rates in the 50 largest U.S. cities — 34 of which had Democratic mayors, while 14 were led by Republicans (two were led by independents). “The homicide rate in the blue cities was 15.8 per 100,000, compared to 9.4 per 100,000 in the red cities,” he found.

And in a May report, his Manhattan Institute colleagues Robert VerBruggen and Christos Makridis examined the growth in the homicide rate per capita in the largest U.S. counties between 2019 and 2020 — and then compared the rates in GOP-leaning and Democratic-leaning counties. They found that “counties with higher shares of GOP voters have a much lower homicide death rate and a lower number of deaths in 2020” and “also a lower growth in homicide rates.”

https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-red-stat ... iven-myth/

This caused me to take a closer look at Thirdway and the Mediabiasfactcheck that JSO quoted earlier. Mediabiasfactcheck states that they "rate Third Way Least Biased based on a mix of right and left-leaning positions, with a stronger right-leaning bias concerning economics" but Thirdway's own website states that "Third Way is a national think tank that champions modern center-left ideas."

Mediabiasfactcheck demonstrates their own left-leaning bias by misrepresenting Thirdway as having "a stronger right-leaning bias concerning economics."