Big Sky Power Rankings 11-14

[JALMOND]

It is hard to believe but there is only one week left in the regular season. It is possible but not likely that the Big Sky could have six teams in the playoffs, but things do have to break right, both in the games in conference and help from outside the conference in order for that to happen. Some marquee matchups this weekend as it is rivalry week for most teams. Here are this week's power rankings (last week in parenthesis). All are my opinion only. Good luck to everyone this last week.

1. Sacramento State (1)---Last week won at Portland State 45-17, this week UC Davis at home---One more hurdle stands between the Hornets and their perfect season, and a solid seed in the playoffs. But they catch their rival at a time when the rival is playing exceptional football so the game will be far from easy, even at their home. What a season and a great opportunity.

2. Montana State (2)---Last week won at Cal Poly 72-28, this week Montana at home---One more home game for the Bobcats and they can go in to the playoffs as a solid seed and only one loss on their record to FBS Oregon State. A thorough demolition last week against an inferior opponent has them on the doorstep. The only thing is a win over their rival, but it is at the Bobcats' home.

3. UC Davis (4)---Last week won at Idaho 44-26, this week at Sacramento State---With their backs against the wall the Aggies are making a strong push towards the playoffs. A good win on the road last week has them in position for the playoffs but they still need this final win on the road to get them there. They are playing great football right now, but they need this win.

4. Weber State (5)---Last week beat Idaho State 45-7, this week at Northern Arizona---The Wildcats are playing out the string, taking care of the games on their schedule against lesser opponents, They should have enough on their resume to make the playoffs but they can't afford a loss to any of those lessor opponents. Their conference season ends on the road, in a tough place.

5. Idaho (3)---Last week lost to UC Davis at home 44-26, this week at Idaho State---Because of their home loss last week to a desperate conference team, the Vandals great season hangs by a thread. Will they get in or won't they? That seems to be the question now. They have to win on the road against their rival in order to have any shot at the playoffs.

6. Montana (6)---Last week beat Eastern Washington at home 63-7, this week at Montana State---The Grizzlies have been feasting on cupcakes the last two weeks but they finally get one more game that counts. Last week was fairly easy but this week isn't going to be, but they need it to have any shot at making the playoffs. Also a win will make everything right in Grizzly land.

7. Portland State (7)---Last week lost to Sacramento State at home 45-17, this week at Cal Poly---The Vikings attempt to create chaos in the conference last week went awry in a hurry as they fell victim to the Hornet train. They get a chance to end the season on a high note, playing a team worse than they are. However, it is on the road and those are always tough to get.

8. Northern Arizona (8)---Last week lost at Northern Colorado 21-20, this week Weber State at home---The Lumberjacks let a 4th quarter lead disappear on the road last week and took a road loss. They are still playing for pride and could create havoc this weekend with a conference heavyweight coming to town. A good rivalry game at home to end the season with.

9. Northern Colorado (10)---Last week beat Northern Arizona at home 21-20, this week at Eastern Washington---Given up for dead, both in the conference all season as well as the game last week, the Bears rallied at home and got a solid win. They have one more chance at something to build on for next year by getting a win against one of the faltering teams.

10. Eastern Washington (9)---Last week lost at Montana 63-7, this week Northern Colorado at home---Hard to imagine that the Eagles have fallen this far in the season but another demoralizing loss to one of the heavies has them near the bottom. Are they really this bad? The week's game will tell as they get a lesser opponent coming to town.

11. Idaho State (11)---Last week lost at Weber State 45-7, this week Idaho at home---Have the Bengals really checked out? The end of the schedule has been tough but they really have not put up much of a fight. They had a chance to put a dent in one rival's playoff chances, and they rolled over. They get another shot at another rival who needs the win. Will they roll over again?

12. Cal Poly (12)---Last week lost to Montana State at home 72-28, this week Portland State at home---It also looks like the Mustangs have checked out as well as they did not offer much of a fight last week. The competition is easier this week but still, if they have no fight in them, it will be really hard to get a win. Will they show up or have they truly packed it it?

RECAP: 1-3 out front, 4-6 right there, 7 on an island, 8-9 pretty even, 10-12 golfing.

[SuperHornet]

1. Sac
2. MT State
3. Weber State
4. Manure Pile
5. Idaho
6. Montana
7. Portland State
8. N. Colorado
9. N. Arizona
10. ID State
11. E. Washington
12. Cow Poly

[Mvemjsunpx]

As good as Davis is playing right now, I don't see any legitimate justification for putting them above Weber. Weber has a noticeably better resume (for the Utah State win, if nothing else), and Weber beat Davis on the road. You also act like the Wildcats could miss the playoffs, which doesn't seem at all likely even if they somehow lose to NAU.

[kalm]

As good as Davis is playing right now, I don't see any legitimate justification for putting them above Weber. Weber has a noticeably better resume (for the Utah State win, if nothing else), and Weber beat Davis on the road. You also act like the Wildcats could miss the playoffs, which doesn't seem at all likely even if they somehow lose to NAU.

Weber is a lock at 8-3 and possible seed at 9-2.

Montana, Davis, and Idaho are likely in at 7-4.

Unless Idaho craps the bed the Big Sky is minimum 4 bids with as many as 6.

[Wildcat Ryan]

As good as Davis is playing right now, I don't see any legitimate justification for putting them above Weber. Weber has a noticeably better resume (for the Utah State win, if nothing else), and Weber beat Davis on the road. You also act like the Wildcats could miss the playoffs, which doesn't seem at all likely even if they somehow lose to NAU.

Weber is a lock at 8-3 and possible seed at 9-2.

Montana, Davis, and Idaho are likely in at 7-4.

Unless Idaho craps the bed the Big Sky is minimum 4 bids with as many as 6.

At 9-2 Weber has a seed.
At 8-3 Weber is still in but playing in round 1

[SuperHornet]

SH's suppositions:

Sac and MT State are seeds no matter what. Win and it's Top 3. Lose and it's probably 4-6.

Weber is a first round home team if they lose, and a low seed if they win.

Montana is a first round road team if they lose the Brawl, and a first round home team or a possible low seed if they win the Brawl.

UC Davis is a first round road team if they win Causeway and out if Sac wins.

Idaho is a first round road team if they win, and out if they lose.

That seems to be about as far as it goes for the Sky. A major factor that seem to affect this: low- or non-ranking teams getting auto-bids and taking up first-round spots and therefore pushing up mid-range power conference (i.e. Big Sky, MVFC, and CAA) teams.

[uofmman1122]

SH's suppositions:

Sac and MT State are seeds no matter what. Win and it's Top 3. Lose and it's probably 4-6.

Weber is a first round home team if they lose, and a low seed if they win.

Montana is a first round road team if they lose the Brawl, and a first round home team or a possible low seed if they win the Brawl.

UC Davis is a first round road team if they win Causeway and out if Sac wins.

Idaho is a first round road team if they win, and out if they lose.

That seems to be about as far as it goes for the Sky. A major factor that seem to affect this: low- or non-ranking teams getting auto-bids and taking up first-round spots and therefore pushing up mid-range power conference (i.e. Big Sky, MVFC, and CAA) teams.

The FCS playoffs have been around for decades, and people still forget how it works. The first round works on bids. Montana is literally never playing an away game if it's ever in the first round of the FCS playoffs.

[kalm]

Weber is a lock at 8-3 and possible seed at 9-2.

Montana, Davis, and Idaho are likely in at 7-4.

Unless Idaho craps the bed the Big Sky is minimum 4 bids with as many as 6.

At 9-2 Weber has a seed.
At 8-3 Weber is still in but playing in round 1

* should.

The committee may have a hard time giving a seed if a team finished 3rd in their conference. It’s an interesting seed bubble this year as of right now. A 2 loss SoCon, CAA, or 1 loss ICW or Holy Cross would likely get the nod ahead of that.

EG:

SAC
SDSU
MSU
NDSU
William and Mary
Samford
ICW
HC

Or Richmond if they beat W&M
Or even a two loss Samford or Furman

I wouldn’t agree with it but the committee under appreciates SoS and over applies conference finish.

[Wildcat Ryan]

At 9-2 Weber has a seed.
At 8-3 Weber is still in but playing in round 1

* should.

The committee may have a hard time giving a seed if a team finished 3rd in their conference. It’s an interesting seed bubble this year as of right now. A 2 loss SoCon, CAA, or 1 loss ICW or Holy Cross would likely get the nod ahead of that.

EG:

SAC
SDSU
MSU
NDSU
William and Mary
Samford
ICW
HC

Or Richmond if they beat W&M
Or even a two loss Samford or Furman

I wouldn’t agree with it but the committee under appreciates SoS and over applies conference finish.


Or Richmond if tgey

True