The Ukraine Crisis

[kalm]

China still needs us and most of the rest of tgexeorjd’s markets. That would not be a wise thing to do on several levels.

And it’s not Xi. It’s Yi. Close.

What are we going to do, stop buying Chinese stuff? Our economy would grind to a halt.

So we’d be at war and still trading?

[GannonFan]

What are we going to do, stop buying Chinese stuff? Our economy would grind to a halt.

So we’d be at war and still trading?

It's the modern way of thing. Wouldn't be an out and out war, and it would be murky of how Chinese goods get to market. Kinda like how Russia's been selling oil on the global market for the past year despite the conflict in Ukraine.

On the plus side, the great de-coupling from China has been going on in the country for the past decade or so. Trade secret stuff rarely gets located in China any more as companies can't trust it won't just be stolen. There are plenty of other lower cost competitors in the world so you don't need to go to just China to find suppliers. And China itself is about to go through a huge demographic speed bump that's going to restrict their economy for the next couple of decades. Things aren't all that rosey in China right now - which, of course, makes them more of a threat in the short term. Geo-politically, this is going to be a fascinating next decade or so.

[SeattleGriz]

Do you all see the writing on the wall? Zelensky is being told he better show progress by summer or they will pull the plug on his support. Guy was forced into this and now those that did that are looking to save face. Even the media narrative is changing.

Robert Gates was right.

Robert Gates, the former Defense Secretary said on Sunday that Biden has been wrong on nearly every major foreign and security issue over four decades

[GannonFan]

Do you all see the writing on the wall? Zelensky is being told he better show progress by summer or they will pull the plug on his support. Guy was forced into this and now those that did that are looking to save face. Even the media narrative is changing.

Robert Gates was right.

Robert Gates, the former Defense Secretary said on Sunday that Biden has been wrong on nearly every major foreign and security issue over four decades

Forced into what? Russia invaded on their own initiative. Zelensky is just defending his country and the ability for them to keep their country. Sure, at some point it's very likely that there'll be a cease fire and settlement that gives Russia some of the Ukraine, and a few years down the road Russia will attack again and look for more land to take over. It's what Russia does. Like I said, best outcome for this is for Ukraine to enter NATO with whatever country they have left (which still looks sizeable as Russia has been bogged down for quite some time now) and they don't have to worry about future Russian attacks. The Baltic countries, Poland, Finland, and Sweden have all seen the prudence of being part of NATO since Russia appears hellbent on empire building, for at least as long as Putin is in charge.

[houndawg]

For sh!ts and giggles when discussing staged photo ops ...

I know tDS Type 1 but if I have tDS for this doesn't that mean that the two of you have BDS for the original post & response?

At least Trump knew where he was and what to do. I understand staged photos, but when you need cue cards and a "Joe stand here" red dot, that's a whole new level.

We have become Fetterman Nation.

Actually its quite common in TV -.....your maufactured outrage is reminiscent of Lou Dobbs and the Great Tan Suit Debacle.

Tell us again how those nice white people in Russia are our friends and there is no need to "fight them over there so we don't have to fight them over here"

[houndawg]

Do you all see the writing on the wall? Zelensky is being told he better show progress by summer or they will pull the plug on his support. Guy was forced into this and now those that did that are looking to save face. Even the media narrative is changing.

Robert Gates was right.

Forced into what? Russia invaded on their own initiative. Zelensky is just defending his country and the ability for them to keep their country. Sure, at some point it's very likely that there'll be a cease fire and settlement that gives Russia some of the Ukraine, and a few years down the road Russia will attack again and look for more land to take over. It's what Russia does. Like I said, best outcome for this is for Ukraine to enter NATO with whatever country they have left (which still looks sizeable as Russia has been bogged down for quite some time now) and they don't have to worry about future Russian attacks. The Baltic countries, Poland, Finland, and Sweden have all seen the prudence of being part of NATO since Russia appears hellbent on empire building, for at least as long as Putin is in charge.

thats the only way Putin gets out of his blunder alive; better we just keep making him spend - and just like 1989 the end will come suddenly, to the delight of everyone but the top of Russia's power structure, who will get The People's Justice.

[GannonFan]

Forced into what? Russia invaded on their own initiative. Zelensky is just defending his country and the ability for them to keep their country. Sure, at some point it's very likely that there'll be a cease fire and settlement that gives Russia some of the Ukraine, and a few years down the road Russia will attack again and look for more land to take over. It's what Russia does. Like I said, best outcome for this is for Ukraine to enter NATO with whatever country they have left (which still looks sizeable as Russia has been bogged down for quite some time now) and they don't have to worry about future Russian attacks. The Baltic countries, Poland, Finland, and Sweden have all seen the prudence of being part of NATO since Russia appears hellbent on empire building, for at least as long as Putin is in charge.

thats the only way Putin gets out of his blunder alive; better we just keep making him spend - and just like 1989 the end will come suddenly, to the delight of everyone but the top of Russia's power structure, who will get The People's Justice.

But how much is he really spending? How much does it really cost to just slog your way through Eastern Ukraine? Missiles cost money, sure, but it's not like the Russian War machine is that complicated these days. Sit back, toss a lot of mortars and artillery, and then see what happens. Heck, they were basically doing that in the eastern parts of Ukraine for the past 10 years, just not as out in the open as they're doing now. And the Russian economy has gotten used to being rather poor, so how much more poor can we make them? Unlike 1989, there just isn't that much there to fall down and collapse. And at least in 1989 we were spending money on ourselves. It's a tougher sell on spending in Ukraine. I think there's a negotiated truce here, and Russia's going to hold on to some of the land they've stolen. But at the same time, Ukraine, and anyone else left bordering Russia who's not already controlled by Russia, is going to come under the NATO umbrella. Exactly the opposite of what Putin has been trying to do.

[houndawg]

thats the only way Putin gets out of his blunder alive; better we just keep making him spend - and just like 1989 the end will come suddenly, to the delight of everyone but the top of Russia's power structure, who will get The People's Justice.

But how much is he really spending? How much does it really cost to just slog your way through Eastern Ukraine? Missiles cost money, sure, but it's not like the Russian War machine is that complicated these days. Sit back, toss a lot of mortars and artillery, and then see what happens. Heck, they were basically doing that in the eastern parts of Ukraine for the past 10 years, just not as out in the open as they're doing now. And the Russian economy has gotten used to being rather poor, so how much more poor can we make them? Unlike 1989, there just isn't that much there to fall down and collapse. And at least in 1989 we were spending money on ourselves. It's a tougher sell on spending in Ukraine. I think there's a negotiated truce here, and Russia's going to hold on to some of the land they've stolen. But at the same time, Ukraine, and anyone else left bordering Russia who's not already controlled by Russia, is going to come under the NATO umbrella. Exactly the opposite of what Putin has been trying to do.

That's just politics from the same crowd that said we have to fight "them" over there so that we don't have to fight them over here. They'd rather see Putin triumph than the Democrats get credit for anything positive.

If you recall 1989 you recall that Friday afternoon there was a Soviet Union and Monday morning there was not and that everybody including the CIA was caught flat-footed by the lightning-fast nature of the collapse. Same with the invasion of Ukraine, even residents of Kiev were on TV saying that everyone was being too alarmist and that Russia was just doing its usual saber-rattling days before the invasion.

As for a truce with Russia keeping territory they've invaded, thats straight-up Neville Chamberlain peace-in-our-time bullshit that not even SD/SG believes even as it spews from his treasonous lips. Putin isn't going to stop until somnebody stops him - and you know that's true. Keep feeding Ukraine until Russia's pitiful excuse for an Army leaves with their tails between their legs. Don't give them the opportunity to replenish.

I'm with the Ukrainian grandmother who told the Russian soldiers to keep seeds in their pockets so flowers will grow where they die.

[SeattleGriz]

Do you all see the writing on the wall? Zelensky is being told he better show progress by summer or they will pull the plug on his support. Guy was forced into this and now those that did that are looking to save face. Even the media narrative is changing.

Robert Gates was right.

Forced into what? Russia invaded on their own initiative. Zelensky is just defending his country and the ability for them to keep their country. Sure, at some point it's very likely that there'll be a cease fire and settlement that gives Russia some of the Ukraine, and a few years down the road Russia will attack again and look for more land to take over. It's what Russia does. Like I said, best outcome for this is for Ukraine to enter NATO with whatever country they have left (which still looks sizeable as Russia has been bogged down for quite some time now) and they don't have to worry about future Russian attacks. The Baltic countries, Poland, Finland, and Sweden have all seen the prudence of being part of NATO since Russia appears hellbent on empire building, for at least as long as Putin is in charge.

Do you not know Zelensky was going to negotiate early to stop this war early and was prevented by the US and the UK? Could have been over last March.

Hellbent on empire building?

[SeattleGriz]

At least Trump knew where he was and what to do. I understand staged photos, but when you need cue cards and a "Joe stand here" red dot, that's a whole new level.

We have become Fetterman Nation.

Actually its quite common in TV -.....your maufactured outrage is reminiscent of Lou Dobbs and the Great Tan Suit Debacle.

Tell us again how those nice white people in Russia are our friends and there is no need to "fight them over there so we don't have to fight them over here"

Manufactured outrage? There is none needed when pointing out Biden has a head full of puddin.

I have said it before, I thought Obama looked great in that tan suit.

[houndawg]

Forced into what? Russia invaded on their own initiative. Zelensky is just defending his country and the ability for them to keep their country. Sure, at some point it's very likely that there'll be a cease fire and settlement that gives Russia some of the Ukraine, and a few years down the road Russia will attack again and look for more land to take over. It's what Russia does. Like I said, best outcome for this is for Ukraine to enter NATO with whatever country they have left (which still looks sizeable as Russia has been bogged down for quite some time now) and they don't have to worry about future Russian attacks. The Baltic countries, Poland, Finland, and Sweden have all seen the prudence of being part of NATO since Russia appears hellbent on empire building, for at least as long as Putin is in charge.

Do you not know Zelensky was going to negotiate early to stop this war early and was prevented by the US and the UK? Could have been over last March.

Hellbent on empire building?

No way the Ukraian people will accept letting Russia keep Ukrainian territory that Ukraine has been fighting for for years, especially with Russia deliberately targeting civilians. They want payback and they would lynch Zelensky if he tried to compromise. Where do you come up with this bullshit, SG?

[houndawg]

Actually its quite common in TV -.....your maufactured outrage is reminiscent of Lou Dobbs and the Great Tan Suit Debacle.

Tell us again how those nice white people in Russia are our friends and there is no need to "fight them over there so we don't have to fight them over here"

Manufactured outrage? There is none needed when pointing out Biden has a head full of puddin.

I have said it before, I thought Obama looked great in that tan suit.

Thats exactly what it is - manufactured outrage - everybody knows that every TV interview ever conducted has marks for placing people - you trying to make something, anything out of a standard operating procedure is just a desperate effort to insert the official Kremlin line into the conversation. 100,000 dead Russians are the real story.

[SeattleGriz]

Do you not know Zelensky was going to negotiate early to stop this war early and was prevented by the US and the UK? Could have been over last March.

Hellbent on empire building?

No way the Ukraian people will accept letting Russia keep Ukrainian territory that Ukraine has been fighting for for years, especially with Russia deliberately targeting civilians. They want payback and they would lynch Zelensky if he tried to compromise. Where do you come up with this bullshit, SG?

No shit on Zelensky getting lynched, although he was put in his place way back when he tried to enforce the Minsk agreement and was told to shove it.

You do understand the whole Eastern side is more pro Russia don't you?

Lastly, your claim of Russia bombing civilians is bullshit. If they are, it's due to the tough guy Azov group using them as human shields. If you are right, why didn't Russia come in hot and heavy and simply level everything? Your logic here is about as sound as you believing Putin blew up his own pipeline.

30 minutes to a mushroom cloud seems to be your sources.

[houndawg]

So we’d be at war and still trading?

It's the modern way of thing. Wouldn't be an out and out war, and it would be murky of how Chinese goods get to market. Kinda like how Russia's been selling oil on the global market for the past year despite the conflict in Ukraine.

On the plus side, the great de-coupling from China has been going on in the country for the past decade or so. Trade secret stuff rarely gets located in China any more as companies can't trust it won't just be stolen. There are plenty of other lower cost competitors in the world so you don't need to go to just China to find suppliers. And China itself is about to go through a huge demographic speed bump that's going to restrict their economy for the next couple of decades. Things aren't all that rosey in China right now - which, of course, makes them more of a threat in the short term. Geo-politically, this is going to be a fascinating next decade or so.

I think it makes them less of a threat in the short term - they get the long game and if they need to wait ten more years for circumstances to be more in the favor to take us on then they'll wait, they've been witing for this day since 1945 and a bit longer won't bother them unless Xi needs an external conflict to divert his public's attention away for a tough situation at home. And while they're waiting it is imperative that they see Russia getting an old-testament style beat down to remind everyone who is a super power and who isn't quite there yet, militarily.

[GannonFan]

It's the modern way of thing. Wouldn't be an out and out war, and it would be murky of how Chinese goods get to market. Kinda like how Russia's been selling oil on the global market for the past year despite the conflict in Ukraine.

On the plus side, the great de-coupling from China has been going on in the country for the past decade or so. Trade secret stuff rarely gets located in China any more as companies can't trust it won't just be stolen. There are plenty of other lower cost competitors in the world so you don't need to go to just China to find suppliers. And China itself is about to go through a huge demographic speed bump that's going to restrict their economy for the next couple of decades. Things aren't all that rosey in China right now - which, of course, makes them more of a threat in the short term. Geo-politically, this is going to be a fascinating next decade or so.

I think it makes them less of a threat in the short term - they get the long game and if they need to wait ten more years for circumstances to be more in the favor to take us on then they'll wait, they've been witing for this day since 1945 and a bit longer won't bother them unless Xi needs an external conflict to divert his public's attention away for a tough situation at home. And while they're waiting it is imperative that they see Russia getting an old-testament style beat down to remind everyone who is a super power and who isn't quite there yet, militarily.

Things don't get better for China in 10 years. That's just 10 more years into this demographic sinkhole they're finding themselves in. They have an amazing number of people approaching senior citizen age and their economy is entirely based on throwing lots of people at low wages at something. And we'll be 10 more years of them approaching pariah status in terms of being a place you want to do business and be in business. China as an economic superpower forever is not a foregone conclusion - they'll be challenged quite a bit over the next decade or so to show they can be more than a place to make things cheaply.

[GannonFan]

Forced into what? Russia invaded on their own initiative. Zelensky is just defending his country and the ability for them to keep their country. Sure, at some point it's very likely that there'll be a cease fire and settlement that gives Russia some of the Ukraine, and a few years down the road Russia will attack again and look for more land to take over. It's what Russia does. Like I said, best outcome for this is for Ukraine to enter NATO with whatever country they have left (which still looks sizeable as Russia has been bogged down for quite some time now) and they don't have to worry about future Russian attacks. The Baltic countries, Poland, Finland, and Sweden have all seen the prudence of being part of NATO since Russia appears hellbent on empire building, for at least as long as Putin is in charge.

Do you not know Zelensky was going to negotiate early to stop this war early and was prevented by the US and the UK? Could have been over last March.

Hellbent on empire building?

Negotiate what? Be a puppet state for Russia? It doesn't seem that Ukraine is anxious to be subordinate to Russia. Seems like they like being a sovereign nation.

[SeattleGriz]

Do you not know Zelensky was going to negotiate early to stop this war early and was prevented by the US and the UK? Could have been over last March.

Hellbent on empire building?

Negotiate what? Be a puppet state for Russia? It doesn't seem that Ukraine is anxious to be subordinate to Russia. Seems like they like being a sovereign nation.

Negotiate that Ukraine will stay neutral. Not allow the West to place offensive weapons close to the Russian border.

Do you not see all the "empire building" is to protect their country?

[GannonFan]

But how much is he really spending? How much does it really cost to just slog your way through Eastern Ukraine? Missiles cost money, sure, but it's not like the Russian War machine is that complicated these days. Sit back, toss a lot of mortars and artillery, and then see what happens. Heck, they were basically doing that in the eastern parts of Ukraine for the past 10 years, just not as out in the open as they're doing now. And the Russian economy has gotten used to being rather poor, so how much more poor can we make them? Unlike 1989, there just isn't that much there to fall down and collapse. And at least in 1989 we were spending money on ourselves. It's a tougher sell on spending in Ukraine. I think there's a negotiated truce here, and Russia's going to hold on to some of the land they've stolen. But at the same time, Ukraine, and anyone else left bordering Russia who's not already controlled by Russia, is going to come under the NATO umbrella. Exactly the opposite of what Putin has been trying to do.

That's just politics from the same crowd that said we have to fight "them" over there so that we don't have to fight them over here. They'd rather see Putin triumph than the Democrats get credit for anything positive.

If you recall 1989 you recall that Friday afternoon there was a Soviet Union and Monday morning there was not and that everybody including the CIA was caught flat-footed by the lightning-fast nature of the collapse. Same with the invasion of Ukraine, even residents of Kiev were on TV saying that everyone was being too alarmist and that Russia was just doing its usual saber-rattling days before the invasion.

As for a truce with Russia keeping territory they've invaded, thats straight-up Neville Chamberlain peace-in-our-time bullshit that not even SD/SG believes even as it spews from his treasonous lips. Putin isn't going to stop until somnebody stops him - and you know that's true. Keep feeding Ukraine until Russia's pitiful excuse for an Army leaves with their tails between their legs. Don't give them the opportunity to replenish.

I'm with the Ukrainian grandmother who told the Russian soldiers to keep seeds in their pockets so flowers will grow where they die.

I just don't see them leaving Ukraine in its entirety. They're still sitting on Crimea and that's been 8 years now. They've been fighting in those eastern provinces for the past decade or so, just without flying their flag until they invaded formally last year. The places they're holding on to now have basically been ethnically cleansed - Ukrainians have been pushed out, killed, or sent to concentration camps in Russia - they aren't coming back. To get them out of Ukraine you're going to have to push them out of these areas, and I just don't see all of what was Ukraine being freed in that way in a reasonable time. It's a shame Ukraine wasn't part of NATO before this because Russia clearly wouldn't have invaded - they're simply not capable of fighting a conventional war against a major power. But we'll see, I doubt the Russian people rise up and do something about this - they've been beaten down for so long they just don't have it in them.

[kalm]

Negotiate what? Be a puppet state for Russia? It doesn't seem that Ukraine is anxious to be subordinate to Russia. Seems like they like being a sovereign nation.

Negotiate that Ukraine will stay neutral. Not allow the West to place offensive weapons close enough to Russia that they can be attacked.

It’s almost as though Russia did the attacking and needs protection.

[SeattleGriz]

That's just politics from the same crowd that said we have to fight "them" over there so that we don't have to fight them over here. They'd rather see Putin triumph than the Democrats get credit for anything positive.

If you recall 1989 you recall that Friday afternoon there was a Soviet Union and Monday morning there was not and that everybody including the CIA was caught flat-footed by the lightning-fast nature of the collapse. Same with the invasion of Ukraine, even residents of Kiev were on TV saying that everyone was being too alarmist and that Russia was just doing its usual saber-rattling days before the invasion.

As for a truce with Russia keeping territory they've invaded, thats straight-up Neville Chamberlain peace-in-our-time bullshit that not even SD/SG believes even as it spews from his treasonous lips. Putin isn't going to stop until somnebody stops him - and you know that's true. Keep feeding Ukraine until Russia's pitiful excuse for an Army leaves with their tails between their legs. Don't give them the opportunity to replenish.

I'm with the Ukrainian grandmother who told the Russian soldiers to keep seeds in their pockets so flowers will grow where they die.

I just don't see them leaving Ukraine in its entirety. They're still sitting on Crimea and that's been 8 years now. They've been fighting in those eastern provinces for the past decade or so, just without flying their flag until they invaded formally last year. The places they're holding on to now have basically been ethnically cleansed - Ukrainians have been pushed out, killed, or sent to concentration camps in Russia - they aren't coming back. To get them out of Ukraine you're going to have to push them out of these areas, and I just don't see all of what was Ukraine being freed in that way in a reasonable time. It's a shame Ukraine wasn't part of NATO before this because Russia clearly wouldn't have invaded - they're simply not capable of fighting a conventional war against a major power. But we'll see, I doubt the Russian people rise up and do something about this - they've been beaten down for so long they just don't have it in them.

Russia is proving it is NATO that is not ready. Russia's been fighting a war of attrition on Ukraine. The US and the UK are low on inventory. Russia has exposed them with industrial warfare.

[kalm]

I just don't see them leaving Ukraine in its entirety. They're still sitting on Crimea and that's been 8 years now. They've been fighting in those eastern provinces for the past decade or so, just without flying their flag until they invaded formally last year. The places they're holding on to now have basically been ethnically cleansed - Ukrainians have been pushed out, killed, or sent to concentration camps in Russia - they aren't coming back. To get them out of Ukraine you're going to have to push them out of these areas, and I just don't see all of what was Ukraine being freed in that way in a reasonable time. It's a shame Ukraine wasn't part of NATO before this because Russia clearly wouldn't have invaded - they're simply not capable of fighting a conventional war against a major power. But we'll see, I doubt the Russian people rise up and do something about this - they've been beaten down for so long they just don't have it in them.

Russia is proving it is NATO that is not ready. Russia's been fighting a war of attrition on Ukraine. The US and the UK are low on inventory. Russia has exposed them with industrial warfare.

We’ve spent less than 10% of our annual defense budget to wipe out a huge chunk of their military without any of our troops on the ground.

Totally exposed.

[BDKJMU]

Russia is proving it is NATO that is not ready. Russia's been fighting a war of attrition on Ukraine. The US and the UK are low on inventory. Russia has exposed them with industrial warfare.

We’ve spent less than 10% of our annual defense budget to wipe out a huge chunk of their military without any of our troops on the ground.

FY 2023 defense budget: 773 billion
100 billion to Ukraine

Less than 10% of the Defense Budget if you're using some strange Palouse math.

[SeattleGriz]

Russia is proving it is NATO that is not ready. Russia's been fighting a war of attrition on Ukraine. The US and the UK are low on inventory. Russia has exposed them with industrial warfare.

We’ve spent less than 10% of our annual defense budget to wipe out a huge chunk of their military without any of our troops on the ground.

Totally exposed.

A large portion of our military budget goes to wages and high dollar items and not sheer volume. Why are we unable to keep up with demand on basic needs like artillery for Ukraine? Our supply chain has been exposed as being unable to even keep pace with a proxy war.

Also, how are you validating your statement of "wiping out a good chunk"?

[kalm]

We’ve spent less than 10% of our annual defense budget to wipe out a huge chunk of their military without any of our troops on the ground.

FY 2023 defense budget: 773 billion
100 billion to Ukraine

Less than 10% of the Defense Budget if you're using some strange Palouse math.

Take it up with National Review.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/a ... se-budget/

[BDKJMU]

FY 2023 defense budget: 773 billion
100 billion to Ukraine

Less than 10% of the Defense Budget if you're using some strange Palouse math.

Take it up with National Review.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/a ... se-budget/

Take it up with defense.gov (sorry I pulled a Chiz and forgot to post the link in prior post).
https://www.defense.gov/Spotlights/FY20 ... se-Budget/

The Nat Review article was before the big Omnibus that gave Ukraine another 40 something billion, making it 100 billion within 1 year. The Russian/Ukraine War doesn't line up with our fiscal year, so the 100 billion has occurred over 2 fiscal years, but that doesn't matter. Bottom line 100 billion to Ukraine in less than 1 year (was approved over about a 10 month period), compared to a FY 2023 773 billion defense budget = about 13% of 1 year of current defense budget.