“Conference Realignment…”

[BlackFalkin]

I think the Pac-12 will eventually disintegrate if USC & UCLA bolt. Oregon & Washington can’t support a PAC 10. It would essentially be a Group of Five conference with no playoff action.

[SuperHornet]

Why is this poll set to "Choose 1?" Most of these are viable multiple choices, particularly the overly large P5 conferences and the strategy to destroy G5. Arguments could also be made for the first two, but the last two are the bigger evils, IMO. I think we might see some G5 conferences moving as groups to FCS just to avoid losing teams. That might be a bit concerning, though. The thought of the MAC in FCS sounds destructive to me....

[BlackFalkin]

Why is this poll set to "Choose 1?" Most of these are viable multiple choices, particularly the overly large P5 conferences and the strategy to destroy G5. Arguments could also be made for the first two, but the last two are the bigger evils, IMO. I think we might see some G5 conferences moving as groups to FCS just to avoid losing teams. That might be a bit concerning, though. The thought of the MAC in FCS sounds destructive to me....

Agreed. College Football is adjusting to the CFB Playoff system like tectonic plates slowly adjust the Earth’s landscape.
I had a conversation with a JMU fan here about if JMU’s FBS move was a good one. I originally thought it was a desperate leap to gain attention as an FBS team member. But I’m beginning to think I was wrong.
JMU’s move follows LOTS of former FCS teams moving to FBS conferences. Power 5 conference expansion could lead to major conferences snatching up programs for top Go5 programs, like Houston, Memphis, App State, Cincinnati or UCF. Some former Go5 programs made HUGE moves to Power 5 conferences over the last 15 or so years. Like former Go5 TCU & Utah. (I think SDSU, USU & Boise St missed opportunities.)

I think this will cause Super Conferences, probably four main P5 conferences vying for the eventual 4 auto bids. It leaves the Go5 conferences needing more teams, and could create demand for FCS teams to move up.

[kalm]

Why is this poll set to "Choose 1?" Most of these are viable multiple choices, particularly the overly large P5 conferences and the strategy to destroy G5. Arguments could also be made for the first two, but the last two are the bigger evils, IMO. I think we might see some G5 conferences moving as groups to FCS just to avoid losing teams. That might be a bit concerning, though. The thought of the MAC in FCS sounds destructive to me....

Agreed. College Football is adjusting to the CFB Playoff system like tectonic plates slowly adjust the Earth’s landscape.
I had a conversation with a JMU fan here about if JMU’s FBS move was a good one. I originally thought it was a desperate leap to gain attention as an FBS team member. But I’m beginning to think I was wrong.
JMU’s move follows LOTS of former FCS teams moving to FBS conferences. Power 5 conference expansion could lead to major conferences snatching up programs for top Go5 programs, like Houston, Memphis, App State, Cincinnati or UCF. Some former Go5 programs made HUGE moves to Power 5 conferences over the last 15 or so years. Like former Go5 TCU & Utah. (I think SDSU, USU & Boise St missed opportunities.)

I think this will cause Super Conferences, probably four main P5 conferences vying for the eventual 4 auto bids. It leaves the Go5 conferences needing more teams, and could create demand for FCS teams to move up.

Good post.

[UNI88]

Why is this poll set to "Choose 1?" Most of these are viable multiple choices, particularly the overly large P5 conferences and the strategy to destroy G5. Arguments could also be made for the first two, but the last two are the bigger evils, IMO. I think we might see some G5 conferences moving as groups to FCS just to avoid losing teams. That might be a bit concerning, though. The thought of the MAC in FCS sounds destructive to me....

Agreed. College Football is adjusting to the CFB Playoff system like tectonic plates slowly adjust the Earth’s landscape.
I had a conversation with a JMU fan here about if JMU’s FBS move was a good one. I originally thought it was a desperate leap to gain attention as an FBS team member. But I’m beginning to think I was wrong.
JMU’s move follows LOTS of former FCS teams moving to FBS conferences. Power 5 conference expansion could lead to major conferences snatching up programs for top Go5 programs, like Houston, Memphis, App State, Cincinnati or UCF. Some former Go5 programs made HUGE moves to Power 5 conferences over the last 15 or so years. Like former Go5 TCU & Utah. (I think SDSU, USU & Boise St missed opportunities.)

I think this will cause Super Conferences, probably four main P5 conferences vying for the eventual 4 auto bids. It leaves the Go5 conferences needing more teams, and could create demand for FCS teams to move up.

SDSU will get a shot at either the PAC whatever or the Big12.

I have no idea what's going on with Boise St. Are their academics too far below Pac standards? Are they too focused on football without enough depth at the Olympic sports?

I wish that they would separate football from the Olympic sports for these super conferences.

[BlackFalkin]

I wish that they would separate football from the Olympic sports for these super conferences.

Great idea. That would be the best bet for the FBS altogether, that would give a lot more FBS programs a legitimate chance at the CFB Playoff. (Which will probably be expanded to eight soon, giving an average of two per super conference.)

[dal4018]

Agreed. College Football is adjusting to the CFB Playoff system like tectonic plates slowly adjust the Earth’s landscape.
I had a conversation with a JMU fan here about if JMU’s FBS move was a good one. I originally thought it was a desperate leap to gain attention as an FBS team member. But I’m beginning to think I was wrong.
JMU’s move follows LOTS of former FCS teams moving to FBS conferences. Power 5 conference expansion could lead to major conferences snatching up programs for top Go5 programs, like Houston, Memphis, App State, Cincinnati or UCF. Some former Go5 programs made HUGE moves to Power 5 conferences over the last 15 or so years. Like former Go5 TCU & Utah. (I think SDSU, USU & Boise St missed opportunities.)

I think this will cause Super Conferences, probably four main P5 conferences vying for the eventual 4 auto bids. It leaves the Go5 conferences needing more teams, and could create demand for FCS teams to move up.

SDSU will get a shot at either the PAC whatever or the Big12.

I have no idea what's going on with Boise St. Are their academics too far below Pac standards? Are they too focused on football without enough depth at the Olympic sports?

I wish that they would separate football from the Olympic sports for these super conferences.

All of the good schools have left The Pac-12 Arizona St and Utah have followed Arizona to join The Big-12

[JALMOND]

SDSU will get a shot at either the PAC whatever or the Big12.

I have no idea what's going on with Boise St. Are their academics too far below Pac standards? Are they too focused on football without enough depth at the Olympic sports?

I wish that they would separate football from the Olympic sports for these super conferences.

All of the good schools have left The Pac-12 Arizona St and Utah have followed Arizona to join The Big-12

The current status of conferences playing football out west in 2023.

Pac-12 (P5 FBS)--dropping from 12 teams to 4 at the most from 2023 to 2024.
Mtn West (G5 FBS)---currently 12 teams, although there are usual rumblings about San Diego State and Boise State leaving. If they pick up all 4 of the remaining Pac-12 schools, they move to 16 teams if everyone stays in.
Big Sky (FCS)---currently 12 teams. Not much news about teams leaving and the only one they've lost recently was Southern Utah in a move to the WAC.
GNAC (DII)---merged with the Lone Star Conference in 2022. Central Washington and Western Oregon are the only former members still fielding a DII football team.

Recent Pac-12 news suggests Stanford may try to go independent. Oregon State is a darkhorse favorite to win the Pac-12 this year and there is hope that a strong conference showing in football as well as their success with their baseball team may entice an offer from another P5 conference for the Beavers. No real news from Washington State. Cal's future is pretty grim as their football program has been pretty tight moneywise and they just completed a major overhaul on their stadium. The Bears need a strong football revenue source if the Pac-12 is truly no more.

[Mvemjsunpx]

If the Pac-12 had lost just a few teams, then we'd probably see some move-ups to the MWC after the Pac-12 poached some of their existing schools. The Pac-12 basically disintegrating and hoping for an MWC merger probably reduces the likelyhood of move-ups, however—a whole new conference would have to form first.

[kalm]

If the Pac-12 had lost just a few teams, then we'd probably see some move-ups to the MWC after the Pac-12 poached some of their existing schools. The Pac-12 basically disintegrating and hoping for an MWC merger probably reduces the likelyhood of move-ups, however—a whole new conference would have to form first.

Yep.

It’s about media markets. BSC programs and the Dakotas will stay put.

My guess is the MWC will absorb WSU and OSU. They are good cultural and regional fits.

BTW, WSU athletics is in serious financial trouble.

[clenz]

If the Pac-12 had lost just a few teams, then we'd probably see some move-ups to the MWC after the Pac-12 poached some of their existing schools. The Pac-12 basically disintegrating and hoping for an MWC merger probably reduces the likelyhood of move-ups, however—a whole new conference would have to form first.

Yep.

It’s about media markets. BSC programs and the Dakotas will stay put.

My guess is the MWC will absorb WSU and OSU. There are good cultural and regional fits.

BTW, WSU athletics is in serious financial trouble.

P12 absorbs the MWC but you’re correct on it happening. The P12 gets the name and “ownership” because they were granted lifetime autonomy and as long as they exist they have a seat at the big table for voting purposes


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[kalm]

Yep.

It’s about media markets. BSC programs and the Dakotas will stay put.

My guess is the MWC will absorb WSU and OSU. There are good cultural and regional fits.

BTW, WSU athletics is in serious financial trouble.

P12 absorbs the MWC but you’re correct on it happening. The P12 gets the babe because they were granted lifetime autonomy and as long as they exist they have a seat at the big table for voting purposes


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Even with only 4 schools remaining?

[SuperHornet]

P12 absorbs the MWC but you’re correct on it happening. The P12 gets the babe because they were granted lifetime autonomy and as long as they exist they have a seat at the big table for voting purposes


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Even with only 4 schools remaining?

I think it would be more like the MWC absorbing the remainder of the Pac...at least Wazzu and OR State, anyway. I've heard speculation that Cal and Stanford might go indy, but there's no way on God's green Earth that Wazzu and OR State could pull that off.

[clenz]

P12 absorbs the MWC but you’re correct on it happening. The P12 gets the babe because they were granted lifetime autonomy and as long as they exist they have a seat at the big table for voting purposes


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Even with only 4 schools remaining?

AFAIK as long as they are able to maintain membership they have it.


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[UNI88]

Even with only 4 schools remaining?

AFAIK as long as they are able to maintain membership they have it.


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Yep. It will be more of a merger but they’ll keep the PAC name so they can keep a seat at the table for as long as possible.

The disintegration of the PAC means no MWC invites for the DSUs. Antidepressant prescriptions are skyrocketing in Fargo.


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[dal4018]

AFAIK as long as they are able to maintain membership they have it.


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Yep. It will be more of a merger but they’ll keep the PAC name so they can keep a seat at the table for as long as possible.

The disintegration of the PAC means no MWC invites for the DSUs. Antidepressant prescriptions are skyrocketing in Fargo.


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Texas A&M is thinking about joining the Pac-12 they tried to block Texas from entering the SEC.

[BlackFalkin]

P12 absorbs the MWC but you’re correct on it happening. The P12 gets the babe because they were granted lifetime autonomy and as long as they exist they have a seat at the big table for voting purposes


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Even with only 4 schools remaining?

USC & UCLA supposedly left because of the TV deal money.
The departure forces Oregon, Wash, Ariz, ASU, Utah & Colorado to find conferences with TV deals.
Which would also force Cal, Stanford, Wazzu & OSU to go hunting for the same said TV deals. (If they want them)

The CFB playoff is expanding and the system is divisible by four.
The PAC12 has the smallest P5 stadiums (and therefore programs)
The PAC12 has only 1 on campus stadium with 70k+ seats
The PAC12 has NO on campus stadiums with 80k seats
The PAC12 has NO on campus stadiums with 100k seats
The PAC12 is the odd man out.
Programs that join “Powers 4s” get TV deals and auto-bids.


I’ve got two theories and I don’t buy the “TV deal” my guess is the CFP has changed Power 5 to Power 4, the PAC12 has the smallest programs so it’s out. Any remaining programs left in the PAC12 (if it still exists) won’t have a chance at an auto bid, only an at large. Why else would West coast teams play Midwest schedules?

[dal4018]

Clemson is thinking about leaving the ACC for more money in the SEC

[SuperHornet]

BF: I saw speculation today that a Mountain West merger with the Pac-4, if done before the Pac-4 is officially dead, would upgrade them to P5 status and therefore get them into the bogus CFP pot of $$. If they don't, and the Pac-4 dies, though, that access to the pot would essentially dry up.

Boy am I glad that the last few years of speculation of Sac State to the Pac-12 didn't happen. We'd be screwed right now....

[Mvemjsunpx]

Boy am I glad that the last few years of speculation of Sac State to the Pac-12 didn't happen. We'd be screwed right now....

Wait… who was speculating that?

[dal4018]

BF: I saw speculation today that a Mountain West merger with the Pac-4, if done before the Pac-4 is officially dead, would upgrade them to P5 status and therefore get them into the bogus CFP pot of $$. If they don't, and the Pac-4 dies, though, that access to the pot would essentially dry up.

Boy am I glad that the last few years of speculation of Sac State to the Pac-12 didn't happen. We'd be screwed right now....

What about San Diego St would they be interested in joining the Pac-12

[SuperHornet]

Boy am I glad that the last few years of speculation of Sac State to the Pac-12 didn't happen. We'd be screwed right now....

Wait… who was speculating that?

I don't think it was getting any major airplay, since that was going in the direction of San Diego State. Some people on SacBuzz had seen some minor prognosticating about that. SD would have more information on that; I got locked out of SacBuzz again a few weeks ago when my laptop got stolen while I was out camping....

[dal4018]

What about Colorado St&Utah St would they be interested in saving The PAC-12

[BDKJMU]

Bryant football to the CAA.
Small private 3.3k students.
Tiny 4.4k stadium.

Last 10 years in theNEC and Big South:
From the last 10 years
2012: 4-7
2013: 5-7
2014: 8-3
2015: 5-6
2016: 5-6
2017: 6-5
2018: 6-5
2019: 4-8
2020: 2-2 (spring season)
2021: 7-4
2022: 4-7

WTF is the CAA thinking?

[SuperHornet]

BF: I saw speculation today that a Mountain West merger with the Pac-4, if done before the Pac-4 is officially dead, would upgrade them to P5 status and therefore get them into the bogus CFP pot of $$. If they don't, and the Pac-4 dies, though, that access to the pot would essentially dry up.

Boy am I glad that the last few years of speculation of Sac State to the Pac-12 didn't happen. We'd be screwed right now....

What about San Diego St would they be interested in joining the Pac-12

There is a TON of speculation regarding San Diego State. Much of it surrounds their pre-emptive move to leave the MWC that nearly backfired when the Pac-12 fiddle-farted with the invite the Aztecs clearly expected. You can probably blame the incompetent commissioner for that. Now there's all sorts of stuff going around about SDSU's failed attempt to create their own super-conference. They're probably as much persona non grata right now as AZ State is after their AD ran his mouth about Morgantown....