Experts see double-digit Dem losses

[dbackjon]

Good analysis TTBF

[dbackjon]

Nate Silver does good work but not infallible.

Both could be overlooking trends one way or another. Party in power tends to lose a lot in midterms

[HI54UNI]

GOP seats that could be winnable for Dems


IA-4 Latham - competitive district, Dems could make a race of it

Since this guy is my Congressman I'll comment. He beat his last opponent in what was supposed to be a "close race" by 20 points. He carried all 28 counties in his district while Obama carried a majority of them. In Story County, home to Iowa State University, Obama got 57%, McCain got 41%, Latham 55%, his opponent 45%. If he can get 55% in what is probably the most liberal county in his district he's not going anywhere.

Latham is a conservative but he isn't a firebrand like Iowa's Steve King. He pays lip service to the social issues but he is more of a fiscal conservative. He's also able to deliver the pork to the district (which contradicts his fiscal conservatism). He isn't going to be beat anytime soon. But if the Dems want to waste a bunch of money on his opponent like last time that's fine with me. Less to spend elsewhere on a more competitive race.

[wildkyle]

I don't see the GOP winning back congress this time but in 2012 you Democrats are going to have problems

there's a redistricting in 2011 - that the Dems will control in a number of key states...

Redistricting doesn't always mean anything. The gop thought they had things locked up for years to come because of redistricting but lost control anyway.

[Chizzang]

Not the end of the world for the Democrats...maybe...

At the mid-August Netroots Nation convention, Nate Silver, a Democratic analyst whose uncannily accurate, stat-driven predictions have made his website FiveThirtyEight.com a must read among political junkies, predicted that Republicans will win between 20 and 50 seats next year. He further alarmed an audience of progressive activists by arguing that the GOP has between a 25 and 33 percent chance of winning back control of the House.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0809/26393.html

And while other analysts see big gains for the GOP in the mid-term....not all are doom and gloom for the Dems...

Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman, who expects Republicans to pick up between nine and 26 seats, said that even if the national environment approximates the 1994 atmosphere, there are significant structural differences about the political landscape that will limit Republican gains

I don't see this as a bad thing - and I'm a communist nut-ball Liberal flake...
Almost any shake up isn't bad... in fact MORE shake up and change would be nice



all this change we were told would happen kinda smells like politics as usual right now...

(can we start hanging them in public squares..?)

[TwinTownBisonFan]

there's a redistricting in 2011 - that the Dems will control in a number of key states...

Redistricting doesn't always mean anything. The gop thought they had things locked up for years to come because of redistricting but lost control anyway.

1. GOP overstretched with a bunch of mid-decade redistrictings meant to kill the dems, and in the process created too many marginal districts
2. the bush admin suggested it was time to privatize social security
3. they let an american city drown...

[AZGrizFan]

Redistricting doesn't always mean anything. The gop thought they had things locked up for years to come because of redistricting but lost control anyway.

1. GOP overstretched with a bunch of mid-decade redistrictings meant to kill the dems, and in the process created too many marginal districts
2. the bush admin suggested it was time to privatize social security
3. they let an american city drown...

versus

1) Donks overstretched by making campaign promises they can't POSSIBLY keep (and had no intention of doing so)
2) the Obama administration suggested it was time to socialize medicine
3) they let an entire country (Iraq) fall into civil war

[D1B]

1. GOP overstretched with a bunch of mid-decade redistrictings meant to kill the dems, and in the process created too many marginal districts
2. the bush admin suggested it was time to privatize social security
3. they let an american city drown...

versus

1) Donks overstretched by making campaign promises they can't POSSIBLY keep (and had no intention of doing so)
2) the Obama administration suggested it was time to socialize medicine
3) they let an entire country (Iraq) fall into civil war

1. It's only been 8 months and you idiots royally fucked up the country. It may take a decade to fix, you fuck.
2. And he's right. Health care costs are sucking american industry and the middle class dry, you fuck.
3. Iraq was fucked the minute we invaded them. They've been at civil war for hundreds of years. Again, your president, your fuck up, you fuck.

Peace

[native]

Seats that seem like they will be lost:

ID-1 Minnick - we should NEVER have a seat in Idaho... order will be restored
NM-2 Teague - R+5 and a traditional GOP seat - likely going back over
TX-17 Edwards - R+20! the most GOP seat we hold, I think... Chet's a popular guy, but I think this is the year he falls (though, he survived Delay's redistricting mid-decade, he may have another rabbit in his hat)
LA-3 Open - R+14 in a state trending red already... without Melancon (who's going after Diaper Dave Vitter for the Sen) this appears lost
MS-1 Childers - R+14 that was won on HUGE black turnout for Obama and a national wave - conditions that won't repeat in 2010
MD-1 Kratovil - How we won on the eastern shore is beyond me... but I think we'll give it back (the powerful MD delegation could make this a kick save though)

The Repubs still have places they can lose -

Races that will be competitive and could break against us

CA-11 McNerney - It's going to be a fight - but at this point I think Jerry holds on
NV-3 Titus - A lot of factors will play in, but she could be in trouble
CO-4 Markey - We won this seat largely on how crazy Marilyn Musgrave is... it's an R+6, so if they find a viable candidate, this moves to a loss
MO-4 Skelton - he's a top GOP target, and the seat is R+14... still Skelton is popular with the locals
AL-2 Bright - in a great year for Dems he held this open seat by the skin of his teeth - with conditions turning - i think the GOP picks up here, a seat the Dems have had for a long time.
AL-5 Griffith - R+14 we shouldn't be holding the in Huntsville area
IL-14 Foster - Hastert's old district, the GOP is coming hard after ol' Doc Foster - but I think he'll hold on (I know Bill personally - he's a fighter, he'll pull it out
WI-8 Kagen - Green Bay and the Fox Valley are GOP but Kagen's done well
MI-7 Schauer - he's an incumbent (freshman) in state where that's not a good thing in a swing district
OH-15 Kilroy - it's a toss up seat...
OH-16 Boccieri - R+7 won in a wave
OH-18 Space - We thought this was lost last time... it wasn't
NY-24 Arcuri - won in a wave - could go back, but NYGOP isn't in a strong position
NY-29 Massa - see above
PA-7 OPEN - Sestak running for Sen opens the seat up - target of opportunity for GOP
PA-10 Carney - We thought this was lost last time... it wasn't
VA-2 Nye - R+5 - traditional GOP stronghold - Dems made huge inroads in the VA Beach area since 01, but there's a good chance this starts backtracking
VA-5 Perriello - R+5 south central VA - my guess is they are gunning for him
NC-8 Kissel - young incumbent lean gop district
GA 8&12 - Barrow and Marshall - the GOP have targeted them this entire decade... never have gotten them
FL-8 - Grayson - marginal district - if GOP recruiting is strong - he's got trouble
FL-24 Kosmas - If the rumors about Lou Holtz are true... this becomes a likely loss.

GOP seats that could be winnable for Dems

CA-50 Billbray - still a chance to get him the district is only R+1
NE-2 Terry - We've been chipping at Lee Terry for about 6 years - things are looking competitive
MN-6 Bachmann - in a perfect storm - but Clark isn't the candidate to win that seat
IA-4 Latham - competitive district, Dems could make a race of it
MI-11 McCotter - he's an incumbent in state where that's not a good thing in a swing district
OH-2 Schmidt - Perennial Dem punching bag, won only 45% in '08
OH-12 Tiberi - Dems ran a TERRIBLE campaign here last time - D+1 that could flip back
NY-23 OPEN - this is a special election upcoming... we'll see.
PA-6 OPEN - Dems could never get Gerlach - but an open seat is a big opportunity
PA- 15 Dent - Chucky's been fortunate to not face a serious campaign yet... that's changing

Seats Dems WILL win

LA-2 Cao - D+25 Cao won because Bill "freezer full of cash" Jefferson won the Dem primary - a wrong will be righted
IL-10 Open - Mark Kirk (R) running for the Sen opens up this D+6 which will finally fall in to Dem hands after years of struggle

In total - 6 likely dem losses - 2 likely dem wins = net - 4... and assuming a portion of the 29 leaners moves... it's still not a majority breaker... i don't see a lot of other seats that the Dems are going to lose unless it's a wave election - and... it's not

Nicely done, TTBF! Thank you for the detailed analysis!

[AZGrizFan]

versus

1) Donks overstretched by making campaign promises they can't POSSIBLY keep (and had no intention of doing so)
2) the Obama administration suggested it was time to socialize medicine
3) they let an entire country (Iraq) fall into civil war

1. It's only been 8 months and you idiots royally fucked up the country. It may take a decade to fix, you fuck.
2. And he's right. Health care costs are sucking american industry and the middle class dry, you fuck.
3. Iraq was fucked the minute we invaded them. They've been at civil war for hundreds of years. Again, your president, your fuck up, you fuck.

Peace

Get used to another one-term president.

[Chizzang]

1. It's only been 8 months and you idiots royally **** up the country. It may take a decade to fix, you ****.
2. And he's right. Health care costs are sucking american industry and the middle class dry, you ****.
3. Iraq was **** the minute we invaded them. They've been at civil war for hundreds of years. Again, your president, your **** up, you ****.

Peace

Get used to another one-term president.

I'm not so sure...
If the Republican party barfs up another cupcake like McCain & Palin as their leadership and as long as Rush Limbaugh keeps calling the shots and bullying moderate Republicans around...

I just don't see the Cheney / Palin ticket getting too many votes

[D1B]

1. It's only been 8 months and you idiots royally fucked up the country. It may take a decade to fix, you fuck.
2. And he's right. Health care costs are sucking american industry and the middle class dry, you fuck.
3. Iraq was fucked the minute we invaded them. They've been at civil war for hundreds of years. Again, your president, your fuck up, you fuck.

Peace

Get used to another one-term president.

Like Clinton? OK, Karnack....

[AZGrizFan]

Get used to another one-term president.

I'm not so sure...
If the Republican party barfs up another cupcake like McCain & Palin as their leadership and as long as Rush Limbaugh keeps calling the shots and bullying moderate Republicans around...

I just don't see the Cheney / Palin ticket getting too many votes

I don't see a Cheney/Palin ticket anyway, so I'm not worried about that. And I don't feel bullied by Limbaugh, and I'm a textbook moderate Republican. In fact, I don't know a single "moderate republican" who listens to that blowhard.