The Poll Thread

[kalm]

Just creating a place for these posts as they’ll become increasingly important this year.

Here’s a devastating one. Especially regarding cost of living. Also note where the highly important independents are at.

[BDKJMU]

[UNI88]

[kalm]

[kalm]

Fuckers!

[BDKJMU]

Just creating a place for these posts as they’ll become increasingly important this year.

Here’s a devastating one. Especially regarding cost of living. Also note where the highly important independents are at.

Lol you literally cherry picked the worst Trump poll out there. The RCP avg is job approval 40.8, 56.7 disapprove, and you cherry pick one at 33, -67, that’s lower than any of the 12 polls in the RCP.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ ... val-rating
So I stopped reading right there.
And I can play that game, too, by cherrypicking the highest poll, beginning of this week. Morning Consult at 45/53.
https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers ... ns-polling

[kalm]

Just creating a place for these posts as they’ll become increasingly important this year.

Here’s a devastating one. Especially regarding cost of living. Also note where the highly important independents are at.

Lol you literally cherry picked the worst Trump poll out there. The RCP avg is job approval 40.8, 56.7 disapprove, and you cherry pick one at 33, -67, that’s lower than any of the 12 polls in the RCP.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ ... val-rating
So I stopped reading right there.
And I can play that game, too, by cherrypicking the highest poll, beginning of this week. Morning Consult at 45/53.
https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers ... ns-polling

Most polls being shown have him in the low 30’s. Nate Silver is good but not infallible.

And too bad you stopped reading as the devastating part regards policy outcomes like cost of living and where independents are at. It’s not good for your boy.

[BDKJMU]

Lol you literally cherry picked the worst Trump poll out there. The RCP avg is job approval 40.8, 56.7 disapprove, and you cherry pick one at 33, -67, that’s lower than any of the 12 polls in the RCP.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ ... val-rating
So I stopped reading right there.
And I can play that game, too, by cherrypicking the highest poll, beginning of this week. Morning Consult at 45/53.
https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers ... ns-polling

Most polls being shown have him in the low 30’s. Nate Silver is good but not infallible.

WRONG. ‘MOST’ polls show him being in the upper 30s/low 40s. Hence the 40.8 of 12 polls RCP. That is MOST polls, as there aren’t that many polls out there, and RCP compiles MOST of them.

[UNI88]

Most polls being shown have him in the low 30’s. Nate Silver is good but not infallible.

WRONG. ‘MOST’ polls show him being in the upper 30s/low 40s. Hence the 40.8 of 12 polls RCP. That is MOST polls, as there aren’t that many polls out there, and RCP compiles MOST of them.

You're going to hang you hat on 40.8 and sinking (now 40.5)?

[BDKJMU]

WRONG. ‘MOST’ polls show him being in the upper 30s/low 40s. Hence the 40.8 of 12 polls RCP. That is MOST polls, as there aren’t that many polls out there, and RCP compiles MOST of them.

You're going to hang you hat on 40.8 and sinking (now 40.5)?

Low 40s/upper 50s is a huge diff from low 30s/upper 60s..

[kalm]

Most polls being shown have him in the low 30’s. Nate Silver is good but not infallible.

WRONG. ‘MOST’ polls show him being in the upper 30s/low 40s. Hence the 40.8 of 12 polls RCP. That is MOST polls, as there aren’t that many polls out there, and RCP compiles MOST of them.

RCP is biased.

[BDKJMU]

WRONG. ‘MOST’ polls show him being in the upper 30s/low 40s. Hence the 40.8 of 12 polls RCP. That is MOST polls, as there aren’t that many polls out there, and RCP compiles MOST of them.

RCP is biased.

So you are claiming most polls are biased to the Right.

Lol past elections (2016, 2020, 2024) have proven the opposite, that the majority of polls are biased to the Left.

[Caribbean Hen]

RCP is biased.

So you are claiming most polls are biased to the Right.

Lol past elections (2016, 2020, 2024) have proven the opposite, that the majority of polls are biased to the Left.

Definitely!

Hellary and Klambella are overwhelming evidence

[kalm]

RCP is biased.

So you are claiming most polls are biased to the Right.

Lol past elections (2016, 2020, 2024) have proven the opposite, that the majority of polls are biased to the Left.

Not necessarily but RCP and Nate Silver are notoriously biased. Sorry, they just are. Rasmussen is a next level of bias.

[BDKJMU]

So you are claiming most polls are biased to the Right.

Lol past elections (2016, 2020, 2024) have proven the opposite, that the majority of polls are biased to the Left.

Not necessarily but RCP and Nate Silver are notoriously biased. Sorry, they just are. Rasmussen is a next level of bias.

I know it’s a difficult concept for you to grasp, but Rasmussen is just one of double digit polls RCP uses.

RCP’s avg can’t be biased Right if they are using most polls, and most polls are biased left. Evidence that RCP is biased to the left:
-RCP 2016 under counted Trump by 1.1. Had Clinton +3.2. Final tally was Clinton +2.1.
-RCP 2020 under counted Trump by 2.7%. Had Biden +7.2%. Final tally was Biden +4.5%
-RCP undercounted Trump 2024 by 1.6. Had Harris +.1%. Final tally was Trump +1.5%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/electi ... ident/2024

So the 3 elections RCP undercounted Trump by 1.1, 2.7, and 1.6, an avg of 1.8. So the actual

Right now RCP has Trump job approval at 40.4-57.6. Adjustibg by 1.8 it’s more like 42-55, no the 33-67 that your cherry picked poll cited.

Surrender accepted.

[kalm]

Not necessarily but RCP and Nate Silver are notoriously biased. Sorry, they just are. Rasmussen is a next level of bias.

Rasmussen is just one of double digit polls RCP uses. RCP’s avg can’t be biased Right if they are using most polls, and most polls are biased left.

Surrender accepted.

You’re surrendering to me? I accept!

RCP has changed its metrics - selection of polls used, adjustments to results, etc during the Trump years. This ain’t exactly a secret or a surprise given RCP’s new reporting. They’re like a semiliterate version of Fox.

[BDKJMU]

Rasmussen is just one of double digit polls RCP uses. RCP’s avg can’t be biased Right if they are using most polls, and most polls are biased left.

Surrender accepted.

You’re surrendering to me? I accept!

RCP has changed its metrics - selection of polls used, adjustments to results, etc during the Trump years. This ain’t exactly a secret or a surprise given RCP’s new reporting. They’re like a semiliterate version of Fox.

I know it’s a difficult concept for you to grasp, but Rasmussen is just one of double digit polls RCP uses. There is changing of selection of polls used, changing of metrics. RCP simply compiles MOST polls out there, averages them, and spits out the results. There is no adjusting results.

Proof that RCP has been biased to the Left the last 3 elections:
-RCP 2016 had Clinton +3.2. Final tally was Clinton +2.1.
-RCP 2020 had Biden +7.2%. Final tally was Biden +4.5%
-RCP 2024 Had Harris +.1%. Final tally was Trump +1.5%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/electi ... ident/2024

So the 3 elections RCP undercounted Trump by 1.1, 2.7, and 1.6, an avg of 1.8.

Right now RCP has Trump job approval at 40.4-57.6. If you adjusted for RCP’s LEFT bias it’s more like 42-55, no the 33-67 that your cherry picked poll cited.

Again, your surrender is accepted.

[kalm]

You’re surrendering to me? I accept!

RCP has changed its metrics - selection of polls used, adjustments to results, etc during the Trump years. This ain’t exactly a secret or a surprise given RCP’s new reporting. They’re like a semiliterate version of Fox.

I know it’s a difficult concept for you to grasp, but Rasmussen is just one of double digit polls RCP uses. There is changing of selection of polls used, changing of metrics. RCP simply compiles MOST polls out there, averages them, and spits out the results. There is no adjusting results.

Proof that RCP has been biased to the Left the last 3 elections:
-RCP 2016 had Clinton +3.2. Final tally was Clinton +2.1.
-RCP 2020 had Biden +7.2%. Final tally was Biden +4.5%
-RCP 2024 Had Harris +.1%. Final tally was Trump +1.5%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/electi ... ident/2024

So the 3 elections RCP undercounted Trump by 1.1, 2.7, and 1.6, an avg of 1.8.

Right now RCP has Trump job approval at 40.4-57.6. If you adjusted for RCP’s LEFT bias it’s more like 42-55, no the 33-67 that your cherry picked poll cited.

Again, your surrender is accepted.

I’d hope there is no adjusting of RESULTS. It’s, as you noted, changing of polls used and metrics. EG: When you use Rasmussen and Trafalgar you’re skewing results right. Plus they supposedly have a proprietary formula for weighting.

Regardless, Trump’s numbers continue to worsen. How low is the floor of his support? Low 30’s? High 20’s?

[UNI88]

'You never see numbers like this': Trump's economy approval with independents plunges 79 points

During the 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump's approval ratings on the economy and inflation were among his key weapons. But just 15 months into his second term, the approval rating has plummeted so deeply and abruptly that CNN's Harry Enten (1) thought it was a typo.

According to Enten, the "switcheroo" is staggering. Back in late 2024, Trump had a 9-point lead over his rival Vice President Kamala Harris on inflation with independent voters. In 2026, his approval rating with this cohort dropped to negative 70 percentage points – a total 79-point swing.

[BDKJMU]

[UNI88]

CNN Poll of Polls: Trump approval rating

[kalm]

CNN Poll of Polls: Trump approval rating

BDKJMU Tits on a bull

[UNI88]

Gina Hinojosa closing gap against Greg Abbott in Texas governor's race

On Tuesday, April 28, the Hinojosa campaign noted three new polls have the challenger within five points of Gov. Greg Abbott, a fixture in Texas elected politics since 1993. He was elected governor on Nov. 4, 2014.

A new independent poll from Texas Public Opinion Research has the governor's race within five points, 48% to 43%, with Gina Hinojosa winning independents, moderates, Black voters, Latino voters, and young voters.

A poll from Somos Votantes, conducted by Global Strategy Group, finds Hinojosa up with Latino voters statewide as frustrations grow over costs.

And a poll commissioned by Pastors for Texas Children, on an electorate weighted 12 points more Republican than Democratic, still has Abbott under 50.

"Every poll tells the same story: Texans are tired of working more and getting less," Hinojosa said. "Latino families, working families, families in every corner of this state are watching their grocery bills, their insurance premiums, and their property taxes go up while Greg Abbott hands billions to his donors.”

[kalm]