Will Weber Prevail over Montana?

[native]

This week, Weber brings to Missoula the #1 scoring defense in Big Sky conference matchups to the team with the #1 scoring offense.

Who will prevail in WA GRIZ?

SCORING OFFENSE G TD FG XPT 2XP DXP Saf Points Avg/G
1. Montana 4 23 4 22 1 0 1 176 44.0
3. Weber State 6 27 6 23 1 0 2 209 34.8

SCORING DEFENSE G TD FG XPT 2XP DXP Saf Points Avg/G
1. Weber State 6 15 5 10 0 0 0 115 19.2
6. Montana 4 14 5 14 0 0 1 115 28.8

TOTAL OFFENSE G Rush Pass Plays Yards Avg/P TD Avg/G
1. Weber State 6 923 1876 451 2799 6.2 26 466.5
4. Montana 4 682 1066 281 1748 6.2 21 437.0

TOTAL DEFENSE G Rush Pass Plays Yards Avg/P TD Avg/G
4. Weber State 6 733 1574 381 2307 6.1 12 384.5
8. Montana 4 388 1423 311 1811 5.8 14 452.8

[Willie]

Montana, by 7. Weber can't win in Missoula.

[SeattleGriz]

Montana, by 7. Weber can't win in Missoula.

Exactly what I was thinking.

[AZGrizFan]

Griz win by 4, 38-34, scoring in the final 3 minutes to secure a victory.
Mariani gets one punt return > 50 yards
Defense forces 3 turnovers & holds WSU to 4 TD's and 2 FG's.

[putter]

I say 45-42 with special teams playing a huge role.

[CPAlum]

no

[jjj3rd]

Griz win by 4, 38-34, scoring in the final 3 minutes to secure a victory.
Mariani gets one punt return > 50 yards
Defense forces 3 turnovers & holds WSU to 4 TD's and 2 FG's.

Sagarin favors Montana by 6.58 including 3.27 HFA...so I'd have to concur with your prediction.

[native]

Griz win by 4, 38-34, scoring in the final 3 minutes to secure a victory.
Mariani gets one punt return > 50 yards
Defense forces 3 turnovers & holds WSU to 4 TD's and 2 FG's.

If the Griz defense forces three net turnovers we will be toast, but I am not sure the Griz can score 38 on the Wildcats without a significant number of short field opportunities.

I hope and expect both teams to play the best game they have played all year.

[AZGrizFan]

Griz win by 4, 38-34, scoring in the final 3 minutes to secure a victory.
Mariani gets one punt return > 50 yards
Defense forces 3 turnovers & holds WSU to 4 TD's and 2 FG's.

If the Griz defense forces three net turnovers we will be toast, but I am not sure the Griz can score 38 on the Wildcats without a significant number of short field opportunities.

Where you need to worry is when Weber or UM get into the Red Zone. Weber only has 19 TD's in 33 changes inside the red zone. Montana is 16/20. In fact, Weber has gotten into the red zone and NOT scored 8 times. The Griz, only twice. True, Weber has more chances, but these are "conference only" statistics and only count Montana's 4 conference games versus the Wildcat's six games. If you equalize the Griz #'s, they're 24/30 versus 19/33.

I'll take those numbers all day lone.

[dbackjon]

Depends. Does MT start slow again?

[AZGrizFan]

Depends. Does MT start slow again?

No. They lied about the start time.... Moved it back an hour but didn't tell the Griz....

[native]

If the Griz defense forces three net turnovers we will be toast, but I am not sure the Griz can score 38 on the Wildcats without a significant number of short field opportunities.

Where you need to worry is when Weber or UM get into the Red Zone. Weber only has 19 TD's in 33 changes inside the red zone. Montana is 16/20. In fact, Weber has gotten into the red zone and NOT scored 8 times. The Griz, only twice. True, Weber has more chances, but these are "conference only" statistics and only count Montana's 4 conference games versus the Wildcat's six games. If you equalize the Griz #'s, they're 24/30 versus 19/33.

I'll take those numbers all day lone.

Point well taken, but Weber also has the best red zone defense in the Big Sky, by a significant margin, while Montana's red zone defense has been relatively porous:

RED ZONE DEFENSE G Scores-Chances Pct. TDs Rush-Pass Made-Att Fumb Int. Downs Other
1. Weber State 6 12-19 63.2 10 5-5 2-5 4 0 0 0
6. Montana 4 9-11 81.8 7 3-4 2-3 0 0 1 0

Should be a GREAT game. Why not come on up?!???

[AZGrizFan]

Where you need to worry is when Weber or UM get into the Red Zone. Weber only has 19 TD's in 33 changes inside the red zone. Montana is 16/20. In fact, Weber has gotten into the red zone and NOT scored 8 times. The Griz, only twice. True, Weber has more chances, but these are "conference only" statistics and only count Montana's 4 conference games versus the Wildcat's six games. If you equalize the Griz #'s, they're 24/30 versus 19/33.

I'll take those numbers all day lone.

Point well taken, but Weber also has the best red zone defense in the Big Sky, by a significant margin, while Montana's red zone defense has been relatively porous:

RED ZONE DEFENSE G Scores-Chances Pct. TDs Rush-Pass Made-Att Fumb Int. Downs Other
1. Weber State 6 12-19 63.2 10 5-5 2-5 4 0 0 0
6. Montana 4 9-11 81.8 7 3-4 2-3 0 0 1 0

Should be a GREAT game. Why not come on up?!???

The stat that amazes me there is the 2-5 field goals made. Jesus, is it just me or have field goal kickers become completely horrid lately? I guess Montana fans got spoiled with Dan Carpenter....

[putter]

Point well taken, but Weber also has the best red zone defense in the Big Sky, by a significant margin, while Montana's red zone defense has been relatively porous:

RED ZONE DEFENSE G Scores-Chances Pct. TDs Rush-Pass Made-Att Fumb Int. Downs Other
1. Weber State 6 12-19 63.2 10 5-5 2-5 4 0 0 0
6. Montana 4 9-11 81.8 7 3-4 2-3 0 0 1 0

Should be a GREAT game. Why not come on up?!???

The stat that amazes me there is the 2-5 field goals made. Jesus, is it just me or have field goal kickers become completely horrid lately? I guess Montana fans got spoiled with Dan Carpenter....

I agree AZ. I am trying to get to kick for $10k at a home game though. If I can make it I will offer BH my services. I think I have some eligibility left

[AZGrizFan]

The stat that amazes me there is the 2-5 field goals made. Jesus, is it just me or have field goal kickers become completely horrid lately? I guess Montana fans got spoiled with Dan Carpenter....

I agree AZ. I am trying to get to kick for $10k at a home game though. If I can make it I will offer BH my services. I think I have some eligibility left

And people on egriz are talking about how McNight has improved so much this year....he's 4 of 8!!!!! Apparently that gets you a scholarship nowadays.

[kalm]

Too very solid, physical teams. Weber probably has the better skill position people, but Montana appears to be more disciplined. If Montana calls as aggressive a game as it did against us on 4th down and with blitzing, it could be tough for the cats.

It would be a toss-up in Ogden so I gotta tip my hat the griz in WGS.

Plus, we need them to win.

[weberwildcat]

Griz win by 4, 38-34, scoring in the final 3 minutes to secure a victory.
Mariani gets one punt return > 50 yards
Defense forces 3 turnovers & holds WSU to 4 TD's and 2 FG's.

If the Griz defense forces three net turnovers we will be toast, but I am not sure the Griz can score 38 on the Wildcats without a significant number of short field opportunities.

I hope and expect both teams to play the best game they have played all year.

An interesting defensive stat thus far:

WSU has played 8 DI games, UM has played 6.

WSU hasn't allowed 30 points all year which includes games against 2 FBS schools.
UM has allowed 30 pts in 3 of its last 4 games.

[weberwildcat]

Weber must prevail or the season is over!

GO WEBER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[putter]

I agree AZ. I am trying to get to kick for $10k at a home game though. If I can make it I will offer BH my services. I think I have some eligibility left

And people on egriz are talking about how McNight has improved so much this year....he's 4 of 8!!!!! Apparently that gets you a scholarship nowadays.

IMO his leg strength has improved but you have no idea where the ball is going....

[SUUTbird]

I think this will be a great game overall but i think Weber could pull off the upset if the Wildcats play well and if these things occur:

-If Montana offense comes out slow again like it did against Western State, UC Davis and Portland state i think this may hurt them more then many people think. Weber's offense has plenty of playmakers to get some breathing room quickly and the Griz's comeback ability in recent years has bee amazing but it may be harder against the second best team in the Big Sky.

-Cameron Smith CANNOT turn the ball over like he did the last time in MIssoula, turnovers in general will be key this game like they are in any other, however more so on the WIldcats side of the ball and especially with Higgins (cost the WIldcats the Wyoming and Colorado State game).

-Special teams play will be huge in this game especially with two great kick returners in Mar Mariana and Tim Toone who i think both will have opportunities to make big plays. The kicking game is also a factor as both teams this year appear to bring subpar kickers to the contest (Mcknight with only 50% of Field Goals made and Snoy with 53.8% Field Goals made). Whoever kicks the best on Halloween may very well lead to the victory both teams seek.

-In terms of defense the WIldcats have an advantage over the Griz in this one based on performances of past games and what each team does best on offense. Montana has given up over 300+ yards passing in all but two games (D2 Western State and run oriented Cal Poly) and with Weber's talented WR core and QB they could and i believe will pick apart the Griz secondary. The challenge for Weber will be to stop the best RB in the Big Sky i believe in Chase Reynolds (sorry smith ) whos hard hitting nose to the grindstone running style along with a Big O-line may give the Weber D line and their stud Defensive tackle Ryan "The Beast" Eastman all they can handle.

However this game is being played in Missoula and that gives Montana a huge advantage as Weber has never won in Missoula if i remember correctly but even with this i still am undecided for the outcome of this game, looking forward very much to watching this game on BigSkyTV this saturday .

[Cleets Part 2]

There is a TON of pressure on Weber to win this game...
It might be a Win your In lose you're out situation for Weber (is that an exaggeration..?)

is there a bigger FCS game this week..?

[Grizo406]

I don't want them to, but I think Weber will win this one.

FWIW, I also thought Weber would beat MSU...

[native]

There is a TON of pressure on Weber to win this game...
It might be a Win your In lose you're out situation for Weber (is that an exaggeration..?)

is there a bigger FCS game this week..?

There was a ton of pressure on Weber to beat #3 Cal Poly last year, too. I think confidence, excitement and anger will win out over fear for the Wildcats.

[AZGrizFan]

If the Griz defense forces three net turnovers we will be toast, but I am not sure the Griz can score 38 on the Wildcats without a significant number of short field opportunities.

I hope and expect both teams to play the best game they have played all year.

An interesting defensive stat thus far:

WSU has played 8 DI games, UM has played 6.

WSU hasn't allowed 30 points all year which includes games against 2 FBS schools.
UM has allowed 30 pts in 3 of its last 4 games, and scored less than 35 only once.

True, but the stats I quoted are for BSC games only. And conversely, Weber has only gone over 40 twice, while the Griz have gotten 40+ in 4 of the last 5 games.

[native]

An interesting defensive stat thus far:

WSU has played 8 DI games, UM has played 6.

WSU hasn't allowed 30 points all year which includes games against 2 FBS schools.
UM has allowed 30 pts in 3 of its last 4 games, and scored less than 35 only once.

True, but the stats I quoted are for BSC games only. And conversely, Weber has only gone over 40 twice, while the Griz have gotten 40+ in 4 of the last 5 games.

If Weber does not turn the ball over, I predict they will break 40 points against the Griz.