TwinTownBisonFan wrote:hoagie - my point remains - you really can't read national results from governors races - the dynamics of the races are different - yes - the national parties meddle in them - doesn't change how VOTERS respond to their choices.
2001 is likely the best parallel - I recall being filled with false hope in 2001 when Warner and McGreevey won... these elections (and the KY and LA races in the other off year for that matter) just can't be linked effectively to the national scene.
from a poli sci perspective - if you look at special elections for house seats - they can be a better barometer... but not always (and I don't think you can read anything in to NY-23 for that matter - that race was littered with extenuating circumstances)
i'm not going to somehow try and say that what happened was somehow good for the Dems in VA and NJ... I just think reports that this is a harbinger of the rebirth of the GOP are likely wishful thinking on the part of some, and something to fill column inches for others.
I agree in that the Gubernatorial races really do not have much of an effect on national politics. NJ for example since the 1940's has had 8 Republicans and 8 Democrats as governors. We all know that state will consistently be a democratic state. Another state, Massachusetts since 1940's has had 9 republican governors and 7 democratic governors. Lastly, in Rhode Island since 1985 you have had 22 years of Republican governors and 4 years of Democratic governors.
None of those states will ever not vote democratic in a national election.
As for the NY-23, it is a 1 year temp seat holding. The circumstances were more than unique. You had Hoffman who put his name into the race with less than 30 days until the race. He barely lost and if Scozzafazza actually supported him and/or there were not pre-cast ballots he probably had the chance to win. I think the race regardless of how it has been for 100 years, shows that if "Conservatives" can have a solid campaign they have a chance to win a lot of races. I think it will happen much more on local senator and congressman seats than say with a Sarah Palin, but it still shows they have a strong shot at a lot of seats.
The young vote factor will be gone by 2012 also. The young vote "succeeded" in 2008. The young vote is apathetic and they will not come out in numbers again in 2012. The only hope is that the minority votes continues to go strong towards democrats. A lot of independents have proven in those exit polls that they have shifted and almost all public opinion polls show they have shifted.
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